Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Summer 2024.

If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Spring is now over with so time to move on and focus on the summer short range forcasts.

A ridge of high pressure is moving in from the west to deliver a mostly dry and settled weekend. Temperatures will be close to average to a little above and it should feel relatively pleasant.

High pressure begins to move away from Bank Holiday Monday with a cool north-westerly airflow becoming established through next week.

Next week looks a bit of a battleground between the colder push from the north-west and the high pressure just to our south.

Overall next week will be colder than average with temperatures possibly a degree or two below normal.

A mostly dry week to come with many parts of the country only getting trace amounts of rainfall, however the north-west and Donegal in particular may experience showers at times leading to low rainfall totals there.

Artane2002

Looking at the models, Sunday could be a notably cool day away from the far south, especially in the north/northwest. The GFS has maxima of 9-11°C while the EC/GEM/UKMO are more like 10-12°C. It's still unclear how far south the notable cold will get but it appears that the northern half will cop it. I tried to attach the charts but it doesn't seem to be working.

Gonzo

Unfortunately the attaching charts/photos feature on boards is completely broken right now.

Meteorite58

Warm temperatures over the next few days with little rainfall.

Meteorite58

Showers about today ( maybe a few isolated sparks throughout the afternoon ) and more showers in parts tomorrow , better Monday until later when rain spreads over the country into Tuesday as a LP meanders over or close to us and improving Weds, less rain after that it would seem and improving temperatures.

highdef

The raw output on the Met forecast for Friday afternoon is suggesting a fairly warm afternoon in many parts, with Meath being the most pleasant.

squarecircles

14 degrees max that day in the west. Complete Trash.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122389535#Comment_122389535

roll on West Mayo next week on holiday!!! Fleece jacket on the beach!! 🤣

Gonzo

We are now approaching the closing stages of summer and this has been a mostly cool, cloudy and drizzely summer up to this point. However the following week will see temperatures where they should be or slightly above so the coming 6 day period will see the warmest temperatures overall since summer began. There is no heatwave or plumes on the horizon but temperatures should reach 19 to 22C most days over the coming week with a few places maybe getting to 23 or 24C. In a summer that's been mostly mid teens this will be most welcome so make the most of the comfortable temperatures. Not much rainfall either over the coming 5 days so lots of opportunities for being outside gardening, walking or sitting outside in the garden having a lunch.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122435236#Comment_122435236

There's still over an entire month (a third) of summer to go. And September often sees us get the best weather. It's still bright until 9.30 in the evening. I'd hardly say we're in the 'closing stages' of summer.

We're still pretty much at the height of summer. And everyone should try enjoy it rather than always be looking ahead to the end of things.

Elmer Blooker

nothing wrong with being optimistic but let’s face it, it’s a long way back from this, we’re stuck in this for the next few weeks. Not the end of the world though, we’ve had only two good Augusts this century so we’re well used to this crap .. thank god for Ryanair!

… from bad to worse

KanyeSouthEast

what’s going on there Elmer and what’s the time period thanks

Elmer Blooker

Time period? I think we can write off August unfortunately, if anyone can find a fine and warm August that followed a cool dull July from past records/archives I would like to know but I’m not aware of any?

pad199207

If it’s any consolation there Thunderstorms across the Algarve tonight

Elmer Blooker

there’s no hope now,

Meteorite58

Models showing high rainfall totals in the W especially over mountains, could get over 50mm in 24 hrs in parts.

Windy in coastal areas and breezy to blustery overland.

For comparison to get an average.

Interesting to see the lower temperatures under the rainband on Monday whilst the East gets warm up to around 23C and warming up behind the front from the West after it passes .

Meteorite58

Some very big rainfall totals up to Monday morning.

gugsy

Already 76mm in Connemara with more to come tonight.

Meteorite58

The remnants of Ernesto brushing past us later Weds into early Thurs brining wet and windy weather, the rainfall mostly overnight into the early morning. Fairly windy along the Atlantic coastal areas may warrant a yellow warning for a time especially in the W and NW perhaps, so far rainfall looks moderate to heavy overnight but not showing too much accumulations at the moment.

Meteorite58

Unsettled this week with wet and breezy to windy weather at times as LP becomes dominant, has an Autumnal look to it. Rainfall accumulations rising as the week goes on especially along Atlantic coastal counties. Temperatures only fair some days getting up to the high teens or low 20's in just a few places although humidity might make it feel warmer during some of those frontal passages.

Will have clear spells too after /before frontal passages but showery too more so towards the coasts, should get decent dry breaks further East.

Low chance of an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow more so tomorrow evening/ night along the Atlantic coast perhaps.

The Jet is well fired up.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes indeed Autumn is kicking in early

pauldry

Noticed on RTE weather after the news that Mark Bowe said this week would be drier than average yet then forecast a Wet Monday and Wednesday(I think) and frequent showers the other days.

As far as Im aware there could be over 50mm of rain in some parts this week which is twice normal about so where did he get that from?

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122517722#Comment_122517722

Heard that too, I think he made a mistake. The two charts below up to 120hrs and then up to Sunday, a lot more than drier than normal.

Robwindstorm

I noticed that too. He was giving fairly dry weather for the east on Tuesday and Wednesday on the weekly 1pm weather, slightly changed it to showing more showers for the east on Tuesday but still good sunshine for Wednesday while also showing a band of rain crossing the country as well on Wednesday on the 9pm weather forecast.

A bit confusing alright, a bit like my text above 🤭

Gonzo

This week will probably be dryer than normal again, the weather models have been showing very wet conditions all summer and it hasn't happened. Grass here is starting to turn brown everywhere despite no high pressure or settled weather, it's a weird summer that's unsettled and dry at the same time.

Meteorite58

Models showing it windier now for Weds night into Thur. Quite windy along coastal areas. ARPEGE about average amongst the models atm.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes quite a notable event for time of year. Nationwide yellow I would think

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122521397#Comment_122521397

Yes i think so too 😊

adocholiday

Still a bit of uncertainty with the impact for tomorrow night. ECM, GFS and HARMONIE all showing 60-70 max overland with yellow-level gusts for the West coast. ARPEGE showing a similar setup but stronger gusts on the west coast. UKMO and ICON doing their usual over estimations. I still think it should only be a yellow warning for only the Western coastal counties however Met Eireann may issue one country-wide just due to it being the first wind storm since Kathleen in April and trees are still in leaf so loose branches and small/weakened trees might come down and lots of garden furniture still out so might encourage people to take it in etc. Overall I don't think it will be a notable event.

Meteorite58

I think GFS has upped the wind speeds a bit overnight Weds into Thurs but probably topping 70 km/h or so overland, for now anyway, I think the ECM might follow suite nudging up the wind speeds a bit more. There are some models stronger, ARPEGE stronger still than the ECM and GFS but lower than the UKMO and ICON but not by much, will see. Looks like a deepening wave forming close to Ireland . HARMONIE showing gusting 80 to 85km/h overland, mainly higher ground I would think.

Thurs night into Fri morning looks quite windy now, could easily get up to 80 km/h overland and higher in coastal areas. this is evolving by the run, track not fully certain yet but looks like a deepening depression crossing the country, strongest winds South of the center, could produce very strong winds in the East around early morning commute time as it deepens exiting the E, NE coast . One to watch as the models get to grips with it. Would be very unseasonal strong winds and heavy driving rain in parts.

Condor24

We're getting to the butt end of August,and we can start seeing stronger winds speeds from now on. Obviously ex hurricane remnants are fairly common at this time of year too. It's been a quiet summer for wind, so this week has had me sweeping bits of leaves and twigs already, and more to come.

JanuarySnowstor

Extremely high tides this week combined with heavy rain and strong winds mean a Nationwide yellow is more than justified! Indeed flooding for areas prone to it is a certainty along the West Coast. It may not look it on paper but I actually think the next few days could be quite disruptive especially the follow on event Thursday evening

Remember plenty still in mobile parks and campsites etc!

gandalfio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122524765#Comment_122524765

Will it be all done and dusted come Saturday?

Cork2021

not mentioning any names but there’s a page on facebook(Irish run) stating they’ll issue official warnings soon, as the weather deteriorates…. How do they get away with it?

US3

Galway Beos headline

Hurricane Ernesto ‘danger to life’ warning as Met Eireann issue update for Ireland

This **** should be illegal

Gonzo

Tonights GFS 18z showing a very warm spell of weather for the opening week of September when all the kids are back in school. A similar situation to last September which brought a very warm to hot first week to September, however this is not well supported but there is scope within the model output for a decent spell of weather to start September, just not as overly warm as the operational run.

I'll be in Spain of course during this time and it looks like my first week there will be 3 to 4C above normal with +25 to +28 uppers possible and temperatures into the low to mid 30s, I'm looking forward to that.

aisling86

let’s see how this holds up in west cork 🫣 I won’t get down to take it down before Thursdays wind.

Akrasia

Meant to be camping in Connemara on Thursday and Friday nights. Looks like it could be a wild one on the west coast

Elmer Blooker

a very unpleasant and wet looking chart if you’re camping but probably not very windy in the ‘eye’ of the storm? best of luck Akrasia.

Meteorite58

Probably gusting 70 to 75km/h overland tonight into the early morning, could see 80 to 90km/h in coastal areas in the W ( highest winds in the most exposed headlands ), heaviest of the rain along Atlantic coastal counties, small chance of a brief thunderstorm, mainly in the SW I think.

Late Thurs / early Fri morning still a fair bit of uncertainty, latest model output showing the center of the deepening small area of LP futher South on latest runs keeping the strongest winds off shore but a couple still showing some strong wing sweeping over Ireland albeit very quickly and all gone through early in the morning, will see.

typhoony

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122523048#Comment_122523048

I'd be confident that the start of September will see a more settled picture, I've seen it many times over the years. When the tropics start firing at the east of the US it can disrupt the jet stream and we end up with settled weather, they even give it a name "an Indian Summer"

Elmer Blooker

completely weird that temps are a little below normal today in a Tm airflow like this, many many times I’ve seen the low 20s (even when overcast) in set ups exactly like this.

zisdead

Indian Sumner naming has absolutely nothing to do with hurricanes ( ex or otherwise) or indeed the Ocean in general. It doesn't even occur in September. I mean the name " Indian" alone should tell you it has to at least be associated with the great plains and front range of the US. ( I.e where most of the "Indian" tribes resided).

I will leave it to Google search so you can confirm the connection.

50HX

Thread is gone to the dogs between posts about what is the weather like in 5 days time I'm goin on hols in wherever to photos of will this tent/gazebo survive the high winds.

This use to be a great thread one time

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122529483#Comment_122529483

I'm going to back up what your saying but tbh we have a valid reason this summer. This summer has been tumbleweeds for interesting model watching and discussion, we've been stuck in the same rut all summer with very little variation from one week to the next. We still haven't made it to page 3 and summer is almost over which sums this summer up. Similar on the extended range thread, there has been very little excitement in the model watching all summer. I've barely posted in there myself and normally I would posting up lots of charts from arpege and UKV models getting very excited about several days of high pressure, high temperatures, heat plumes and indeed thunderstorm probability charts, there hasn't been a sniff to this to latch onto all summer. Hopefully next summer the model watching is a bit more interesting and technical even if things don't verify. Many of us are tired and bored as well as disappointed with this summer and I can't blame them.

We used to be able to move posts from here to the more relevant general discussion thread but we can no longer do that with the new version of boards and if we were able to do that there wouldn't be much of a thread left other than my original post and a few more. The technical discussion threads will become much more interesting again hopefully soon but we need a winter with some eye candy, a stormy autumn and a decent summer to bring back the excitement in model watching. 2024 isn't going to win any awards for model watching.

JanuarySnowstor

TThe weather in Cork is quite wild this evening. These ex hurricanes always pack an extra punch! Imo a yellow across Ireland was justified!

squonk

It’s just a windy wet evening here in Clare. Slightly a bit out of the norm but nothing to get concerned about.

Yeah I agree. It’s been an abysmal summer. Anecdotally I bought a decent-ish outdoor table and chairs last year and was looking first to getting them back out this summer. There just wasn’t the weather for it though. Not really at all. Even last summer there were a good few evenings k sat out watching the sun go down, particularly last June 2023. I honestly managed maybe 5-7 evenings this summer. It was just cold and not very pleasant for the most part. At no point did it arrive at a point where it was particularly fine and settled. Now I’m looking at the barbecue and thinking it’ll be back in the shed in the next few weeks and that it didn’t Fahy get used as much this year as it should. It’s kind of depressing to think we’re heading back to winter already.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: let's stay on topic please, discussion on charts up to +120hrs only in this thread.

Meteorite58

Showing below the transit of the small fast moving deepening area of LP which the Met Office has named as Storm Lilian as stronger winds affect the UK. Just keeping an eye on the E, SE to see if the winds whip up some strong gusts there as it leaves the coast early morning. Quite wet with 20mm or so falling in places in a very short time. Interesting to see the warm airs being dragged up over the southern half of the country, could even be warmer in southern parts during the night hours than the day time, quite humid overnight.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1826553097541349513

Meteorite58

Some of the Hi Res models max wind speeds. Not very high winds but the fact that trees are in full leaf would probably push it into yellow wind warning category.

Supercell

The SW could potentially have some localised damage there tonight, I'd imagine soil in the SE and E is so bone dry it should help to anchor trees even in full leaf.

Here's how it looks around midnight from windy.com :