May 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Predict the IMT (11.0 is recent average) Predict the Max Predict the Min Predict PRC (as percentage of average) Predict SUN (as percentage of average) BONUS _ Predict Max 24 hr rainfall at any location (MM) Deadline _ 0300 1st May

M.T. Cranium

entry will be 11.5 _ 24.0 _ 1.5 _ 105 _ 085 _ 37.5 not sure of origin of odd boxes in previous post, can't get rid of …

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122072350#Comment_122072350

Normal would be 11.0 _ 22.5 _ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 40

DOCARCH

Hi MT. I have had a quick look….and….no idea where those boxes have come from/how you did that? I tried editing, to remove, but no luck. Will have another look/try later.

DOCARCH

Just putting into one post….

Predict the IMT (11.0 is recent average)

Predict the Max

Predict the Min

Predict PRC (as percentage of average)

Predict SUN (as percentage of average)

BONUS _ Predict Max 24 hr rainfall at any location (MM)

Deadline _ 0300 1st May

entry will be 11.5 _ 24.0 _ 1.5 _ 105 _ 085 _ 37.5

sryanbruen

sryanbruen_____ 11.8 _ 23.6 _ 0.5 _ 90 _ 105 _ 31.2

Bsal

Bsal 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 110 _ 27.5

Artane2002

Artane2002_____ 12.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.5 _ 85 _ 105 _ 20.5

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 12.4 ___ 24.0 ___ 0.5 ___ 88 ___ 110 ___ 20

Gonzo

Gonzo_____ 12.3 _ 23.4 _ 1.6 _ 92 _ 103 _ 26.8

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _____ 10.9 _ 21.2 _ -0.9 _ 115 _ 90 _ 32.2

dasa29

Dasa29 _____ 11.5 _ 22.5 _ -0.5 _ 120 _ 110 _ 35.0

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad_____12______24.1_____-1____100____120______39.5

waterways

waterways ______ 12.7 _ 27.4 _ -1.0 _ 112 _ 113 _ 38

sunflower3

Sunflower3______ 12.4 _ 25.2_ 0.0 _ 122 _ 95 _ 41

John mac

john mac_____ 13.3 _ 26.6 _ -1.5 _ 102 _ 105 _ 47.2

rameire

Rameire_____ 11.7 _ 22.0 _ -0.5 _ 88 _ 108 _ 33.3333

mrskinner

Skinner____12.3 _ 23.5 _ 0.7_ 84 _ 123 _ 25

pauldry

Pauldry____12.1 _ 24.0_ 0.1_ 111 _ 103 _ 51

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___11.6__23.5___-0.8___92___97____27

appledrop

Appledrop 11.8___23.2___0.5___107__90___33

Jpmarn

Jpmarn. 11.5 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 125 _ 105 _ 45

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _________ 12.5 _ 24.1 _ 1.8 _ 105 _ 115 _ 45

adam240610

adam240610_____12.1_24.3_1.1_111_088_50

Missed last month as was in Vietnam, definitely enjoyed the heat but it's colder here than when I left, or feels it anyways

Joe Public

Joe Public_____ 12.3 _ 24.1 _ -1.1 _ 95 _ 110 _ 50.5

dacogawa

Dacogawa 12.1 ___25.0___0.5___102__98___50

WolfeEire

wolfeeire_____ 12 _ 24.5 _ 0.3 _ 100 _ 110 _ 27.9

sryanbruen

MT asked me to do the entries table for him whilst he's on his break.

Table of forecasts for May 2024

FORECASTER__________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ MAX DAILY RAINFALL

John mac____________13.3 _ 26.6 _ -1.5 _ 102 _ 105 _ 47.2mm
Waterways___________12.7 _ 27.4 _ -1.0 _ 112 _ 113 _ 38.0mm
Tae laidir_____________12.5 _ 24.1 _ 1.8 _ 105 _ 115 _ 45.0mm
Artane2002__________12.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.5 _ 085 _ 105 _ 20.5mm
Sunflower3___________12.4 _ 25.2 _ 0.0 _ 122 _ 095 _ 41.0mm
Kindred Spirit_________12.4 _ 24.0 _ 0.5 _ 088 _ 110 _ 20.0mm
Joe Public____________12.3 _ 24.1 _ -1.1 _ 095 _ 110 _ 50.5mm
Skinner______________12.3 _ 23.5 _ 0.7 _ 084 _ 123 _ 25.0mm
Gonzo_______________12.3 _ 23.4 _ 1.6 _ 092 _ 103 _ 26.8mm
Dacogawa____________12.1 _ 25.0 _ 0.5 _ 102 _ 098 _ 50.0mm
Adam240610_________12.1 _ 24.3 _ 1.1 _ 111 _ 088 _ 50.0mm
Pauldry______________12.1 _ 24.0 _ 0.1 _ 111 _ 103 _ 51.0mm

Con Sensus___________12.1 _ 23.9 _ 0.1 _ 103 _ 104 _ 36.3mm

WolfeEire____(-1)_____12.0 _ 24.5 _ 0.3 _ 100 _ 110 _ 27.9mm
Cornerstonelad_______12.0 _ 24.1 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 120 _ 39.5mm
Bsal________________12.0 _ 23.0 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 110 _ 27.5mm
Sryanbruen__________11.8 _ 23.6 _ 0.5 _ 090 _ 105 _ 31.2mm
Appledrop____________11.8 _ 23.2 _ 0.5 _ 107 _ 090 _ 33.0mm
Rameire_____________11.7 _ 22.0 _ -0.5 _ 088 _ 108 _ 33.3mm
Mr stonewall__________11.6 _ 23.5 _ -0.8 _ 092 _ 097 _ 27.0mm
MT Cranium___________11.5 _ 24.0 _ 1.5 _ 105 _ 085 _ 37.5mm
Jpmarn______________11.5 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 125 _ 105 _ 45.0mm
Dasa29______________11.5 _ 22.5 _ -0.5 _ 120 _ 110 _ 35.0mm

NormaL______________11.0 _ 22.5 _ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 40.0mm

DOCARCH____________10.9 _ 21.2 _ -0.9 _ 115 _ 090 _ 32.2mm

Consensus going for a rather warm May with rainfall and sunshine not deviating much from the norm but few going for any noteworthy high maxima which would continue the trend of recent Mays which have been significantly warmer than average without very high daytime temperatures.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122075804#Comment_122075804

It was not deliberate, DOC, I block copied April's intro post, which had a point form style, and tried to create a post similar to it, but ended up with the mess you see, and it kept appearing until I made a normal post later on forecast thread (was really worried it would show up everywhere) …

thanks for clarifying the posts early on …

… and thanks also to sryanbruen for creating a table of forecasts. I am on day ten of a trip in UT, AZ and NV and winding down now to our anticipated flight to Bellingham WA near Vancouver (Sat) / drive next day to home base on Saturday-Sunday. Sunny and 27 C and it's only 1015h (PDT) so it will likely be 32-34 easily here today (here being mesquite, NV east of Vegas). Will post a pic or two in forecast thread when I get home. Lots of fabulous scenery and saw two condors in flight (enormous wingspans of nearly 3 m) over Colorado River near Lees Ferry AZ, as well as one roosting on cliffs nearby. This endangered species has gradually recovered from a handful of about two dozen to 300-400 now, range is ne UT to sw CA.

… April scoring is done, annual updates will take a while. Possibly available 3rd. Our consensus scored 90! (met.ie take note)

M.T. Cranium

9.2 is highest rainfall total on 1st (Bel).

DOCARCH

High of 19.8c at Finner yesterday, and, 16.2mm rain at Moorepark.

M.T. Cranium

After first week …

IMT is 11.2 C, 0.9 above normal.

MAX is 19.8

MIN is 2.8

PRC is 58% of normal.

SUN is 60% of normal.

max daily rainfall is 16.2mm.

M.T. Cranium

20.9 on 9th at Mountdillon.

Readings of 23 and 24 at various locations today will turn that into a one-day wonder.

DOCARCH

High of 24.2c at Phoenix Park yesterday.

appledrop

New rainfall max 24.7mm on 13th Sherkin.

eon1208

Hi. Has MT posted his summer forecast yet. Curiously interested please.

pauldry

Sherkin 26.4mm

M.T. Cranium

Will post a summer forecast near end of May in forecast thread and possibly elsewhere.

— —

After second week …

IMT is 12.7 C, 2.2 above normal. Second week average 14.3 was 3.4 above normal.

MAX is 24.2

MIN is 2.8

PRC is 85% of normal. Second week average was 111% (wet in southwest, dry in east).

SUN is 79% of normal. Second week average was 97%, a little above average in east.

max daily rainfall is 26.4 mm.

M.T. Cranium

Your 24hr max rain forecasts in order:

Pauldry______________51.0mm

Joe Public____________50.5mm

Dacogawa____________50.0mm

Adam240610_________ 50.0mm

John mac____________47.2mm

Tae laidir____________ 45.0mm

Jpmarn______________45.0mm

Sunflower3___________41.0mm

NormaL______________40.0mm

Cornerstonelad_______ 39.5mm

Waterways___________38.0mm

MT Cranium__________ 37.5mm

Con Sensus__________ 36.3mm __ 35.0 (med)

Dasa29______________35.0mm

Rameire_____________33.3mm

Appledrop____________33.0mm

DOCARCH____________32.2mm

Sryanbruen__________ 31.2mm

WolfeEire____(-1)_____27.9mm

Bsal________________ 27.5mm

Mr stonewall__________27.0mm

Gonzo_______________26.8mm

Skinner______________25.0mm

Artane2002__________ 20.5mm

Kindred Spirit_________20.0mm

(Con Sensus adjusted to median of our 23 forecasts, sryanbruen maybe included normal or worked out a mean)

min so far is 0.3 above max forecast (Artane2002 _ 2.5 C) and would require minimum progression scoring.

Top values are 2.5 Artane2002, 1.8 tae laidir, 1.6 Gonzo, 1.5 mtc, and Adam240610 1.1 C.

eon1208

Thanks MT

Tae laidir

Mt Dillon 24.6 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Mt. Dillon 33.3mm yesterday.

Knock hasn't reported yet, and with Claremorris at 32.0, it could beat it.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168258#Comment_122168258

Freeze it at 33mm that's my forecast😁

M.T. Cranium

After third week …

IMT is 13.4 C, 2.5 above normal. Third week average 14.6 was 3.2 above normal.

MAX is 24.6

MIN is 2.8

PRC is 78% of normal. Third week average was 63% (wet inland west, very dry in east).

SUN is 88% of normal. Third week average was 106%, a little above average at all locations but Cork (89%).

max daily rainfall is 33.3 mm. (Knock still not reporting a total for yesterday, radar indicates Claremorris and Mtdillon likely wetter, during absent reports, so not expecting a contender, looks wetter after 0100, but probably no more than 10 mm.)

pauldry

Tonight a new min is likely. Also IMT looks set to dip for rest of month. Max likely reached now. Knock didn't beat those locations as was tracking it that day and Claremorris n Mt Dillon were WAY higher than anywhere.

pauldry

Max Daily rain of 33.3mm looks at risk at Knock Airport. Lashing rain there all day. Nearly 40mm there today provisionally...I think.

DOCARCH

34.9mm at Knock yesterday.

pauldry

Yes and Belmullet in the same county had zero!

M.T. Cranium

After fourth week …

IMT is 13.1 C, 2.0 above normal. Fourth week average 12.3 was 0.3 above normal. Will finish around 13.0.

MAX is 24.6

MIN is 2.8

PRC is 89% of normal. Fourth week average was 123% — will end up around 85%

SUN is 80% of normal. Fourth week average was 57% — will end up around 85%

max daily rainfall 34.9 mm.

… will post June contest by morning.

M.T. Cranium

IMT ended up on 13.1 (13.06) … PRC looks like 81%.

As it will be several days to appearance of MS for confirmed values, I will post a preliminary scoring report later today or by Sunday morning.

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary scoring for May 2024

_ to be confirmed after review by 5 June _

FORECASTER__________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_MAX DAILY RAINFALL

Estimated values _____ 13.1_24.6_2.8_081_085 _34.9 mm _ TOTALS

John mac____________23 _ 00 _ 01^_ 08 _ 06 __ 07 _____ 45
Waterways___________21 _ 00 _ 04^_ 05 _ 04 __ 09 _____ 43
Tae laidir____________ 19 _ 15 _ 18^_ 07 _ 04 __ 07 _____ 70
Artane2002__________ 19 _ 14 _ 19^_ 14 _ 06 __ 06 _____ 78
Sunflower3___________18 _ 14 _ 08^_ 01 _ 08 __ 08 _____ 57
Kindred Spirit_________18 _ 14 _ 13^_ 13 _ 05 __ 06 _____ 69
Joe Public____________17 _ 15 _ 03^_ 10 _ 05 __ 05 _____ 55
Skinner______________17 _ 09 _ 14^_ 14 _ 02 __ 07 _____ 63
Gonzo_______________17 _ 08 _ 17^_ 11 _ 06 __ 08 _____ 67
Dacogawa____________15 _ 16 _ 13^_ 08 _ 07 __ 05 _____ 64
Adam240610_________ 15 _ 17 _ 15^_ 05 _ 09 __ 05 _____ 66
Pauldry______________15 _ 14 _ 09^_ 05 _ 06 __ 05 _____ 54

Con Sensus__________ 15 _ 13 _ 09^_ 08 _ 06 __ 10 _____ 61

WolfeEire____(-1)_____14 _ 19 _ 10^_ 09 _ 05 __ 08 _ 65-1=64
Cornerstonelad_______ 14 _ 15 _ 04^_ 09 _ 03 __ 09 _____ 54
Bsal________________ 14 _ 04 _ 07^_ 05 _ 05 __ 08 _____ 43
Sryanbruen__________ 12 _ 10 _ 13^_ 12 _ 06 __ 09 _____ 62
Appledrop___________ 12 _ 06 _ 13^_ 06 _ 09 __ 10 _____ 56
Rameire_____________11 _ 00 _ 06^_ 13 _ 05 __ 10 _____ 45
Mr stonewall_________ 10 _ 09 _ 05^_ 11 _ 08 __ 08 _____ 51
MT Cranium__________09 _ 14 _ 16^_ 07 _ 10 __ 10 _____ 66
Jpmarn_____________ 09 _ 09 _ 04^_ 01 _ 06 __ 07 _____ 36
Dasa29_____________ 09 _ 00 _ 06^_ 02 _ 05 __ 10 _____ 32

NormaL_____________04 _ 00 _ 08^_ 09 _ 07 __ 08 _____ 36

DOCARCH___________03 _ 00 _ 05^_ 04 _ 09 __ 09 _____ 30

===========

Min prog scoring for PRC, BONUS scoring range 5-10 to balance generally low scoring in other categories.

Table will be adjusted and placed in order around 5th June. Annual updates will follow then.

==================

==================

(actual forecasts)

John mac____________13.3 _ 26.6 _ -1.5 _ 102 _ 105 _ 47.2mm
Waterways___________12.7 _ 27.4 _ -1.0 _ 112 _ 113 _ 38.0mm
Tae laidir____________ 12.5 _ 24.1 _ 1.8 _ 105 _ 115 _ 45.0mm
Artane2002__________ 12.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.5 _ 085 _ 105 _ 20.5mm
Sunflower3___________12.4 _ 25.2 _ 0.0 _ 122 _ 095 _ 41.0mm
Kindred Spirit_________12.4 _ 24.0 _ 0.5 _ 088 _ 110 _ 20.0mm
Joe Public____________12.3 _ 24.1 _ -1.1 _ 095 _ 110 _ 50.5mm
Skinner_____________ 12.3 _ 23.5 _ 0.7 _ 084 _ 123 _ 25.0mm
Gonzo______________ 12.3 _ 23.4 _ 1.6 _ 092 _ 103 _ 26.8mm
Dacogawa___________ 12.1 _ 25.0 _ 0.5 _ 102 _ 098 _ 50.0mm
Adam240610_________12.1 _ 24.3 _ 1.1 _ 111 _ 088 _ 50.0mm
Pauldry______________12.1 _ 24.0 _ 0.1 _ 111 _ 103 _ 51.0mm

Con Sensus___________12.1 _ 23.9 _ 0.1 _ 103 _ 104 _ 36.3mm

WolfeEire____(-1)_____12.0 _ 24.5 _ 0.3 _ 100 _ 110 _ 27.9mm
Cornerstonelad_______ 12.0 _ 24.1 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 120 _ 39.5mm
Bsal________________12.0 _ 23.0 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 110 _ 27.5mm
Sryanbruen__________11.8 _ 23.6 _ 0.5 _ 090 _ 105 _ 31.2mm
Appledrop___________ 11.8 _ 23.2 _ 0.5 _ 107 _ 090 _ 33.0mm
Rameire_____________11.7 _ 22.0 _ -0.5 _ 088 _ 108 _ 33.3mm
Mr stonewall_________ 11.6 _ 23.5 _ -0.8 _ 092 _ 097 _ 27.0mm
MT Cranium__________11.5 _ 24.0 _ 1.5 _ 105 _ 085 _ 37.5mm
Jpmarn_____________ 11.5 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 125 _ 105 _ 45.0mm
Dasa29_____________ 11.5 _ 22.5 _ -0.5 _ 120 _ 110 _ 35.0mm

NormaL_____________ 11.0 _ 22.5 _ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 40.0mm

DOCARCH___________ 10.9 _ 21.2 _ -0.9 _ 115 _ 090 _ 32.2mm