European Parliament Elections 2024 - Friday, June 7th

agoodusername

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122022821#Comment_122022821

Only because they've never had a candidate elected, in reality they'd almost certainly align with the S&D. I don't see any Labour MEPs in the near future.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122022976#Comment_122022976

But the S&D group are not going to fund a non member in the hope they become one.

Brussels Sprout

John Waters is officially running

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0418/1444241-john-waters/

MFPM

Niall Boylan standing in Dublin, another candidate standing to propagate hate unfortunately - no chance of winning thankfully.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122050512#Comment_122050512

Hopefully the end of his radio show and hence career.

CnaM could not allow a candidate to keep presenting an (allegedly) "current affairs" show during a campaign.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122050527#Comment_122050527

I suspect he'll do a deal to return in some capacity. George Lee was back in RTE fairly quick after his foray into politics though he was demoted for a while.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122050512#Comment_122050512

Wishful thinking?😀

Looking at Dublin South,,,only Lynn looks 100% safe, Cuffe should be ok but not like the greens are that popular atm.

Then it gets messy,,Andrews, Doherty, Daly if betting is to believed the most likely but would you be stunned if at least one of those three lost?

Don't think O'Riordan has a hope tbh so Boylan as an Indy has a small chance IMO.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122051047#Comment_122051047

I should say I'd be very surprised if Doherty does not get in, FG having a small bounce in the polls and only running 1 candidate I don't see how she doesn't get in.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122051092#Comment_122051092

I don't give N Boylan any chance, some of these guys are going to get a rude awakening in the elections the likes of Boylan, Blighe, Dwyer, Kelly, Waters. If they were clever they'd coordinate behind a strong personality.

I think LB, RD and BA will win with Cuffe or Daly taking the final one, I suspect Daly will take it, don't think Labour have a hope but Soc Dems might though their candidate isn't that well know outside certain circles. But I think it's relatively open and only Sinn Fein are a certainty.

Guildenstern

Outside the main parties where you'd expect seats to be divided up, although the anti government grumble vote has to go somewhere, strategically the anti immigration voices should have had a chat with each other, but presumably egos don't allow that. Is there an articulate candidate there, or will they be viewed as just angry racists?

Peter Casey's late rise in the last Presidential election was only due to his traveller comments 9/10 days before that vote, so these minor candidates have to engineer just such a moment because they're going to struggle getting media attention. That's hard to do as we basically know already what they stand for.

Interested to see how our media treats all the fringe candidates.

blackwhite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122051838#Comment_122051838

I suspect Niall Boylan running may dilute Dalys first preference share - but will ultimately transfer back to her.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122051838#Comment_122051838

All this is anecdotal but speaking to people in my inner circle who would lean very right, they would consider Waters a total freak, never say never but I would regarding him and Blighe is just an internet presence, in the real world nobody knows him.

Dwyer? Erm less said the better and while Kelly to be fair has tried to distance himself from NP party types, he got 2k last time round , he won't be able to get close this time round either.

I could be wrong, but unlike those , I do think N Boylan along with Mullolly are more serious candidates than a lot of the rabble rousers and have something to work with mainly a presence outside internet bots in their areas they are running.

Regarding the Midlands, that's a brutal one to call, Ming and at least SF candidate for sure, but after that you have Peader , 2 FG candidates, Mullolly and Toibin all battling and lol Lisa Chambers🤣.

Brussels Sprout

I think Daly took a lot of Boylan's vote in 2019 and this time the roles will be reversed.

MFPM

Smith will impact Daly more than N Boylan but she'll get both back via transfers and as long as she stays ahead of them both, she should be in the running for a seat, she'll also do well from the two shinners too.

L1011

Classic Hits to "make a statement" about Niall Boylan's continued presenting (or not) of his show at 9pm

If they allow him to continue presenting, they are openly inviting a licence breach finding against them. Indeed they deserve one for allowing him present last night.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052665#Comment_122052665

Why in God's name would Boylan voters transfer to Daly? His whole shtick is cracking down on migrants and anti-wokeness. She's pretty much the opposite of that. Yeah they both have similar views on Russia but that's not much of an intersection compared to all of their differences.

blackwhite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052871#Comment_122052871

General anti-establishment cranks - the type who vote based on who their preferred candidate p*sses off without paying a blind bit of heed to what their views or policies actually are.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052470#Comment_122052470

Regarding the Midlands, that's a brutal one to call, Ming and at least SF candidate for sure, but after that you have Peader , 2 FG candidates, Mullolly and Toibin all battling and lol Lisa Chambers🤣.

What about Biffo junior? I'd make him a racing certainty along with Ming and one of the shinners.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053185#Comment_122053185

FF coming off nothing from a 2019 election that was quite good to them elsewhere - big ask to get anything.

Suspect Harris wanting to go full term would make the required by election by December if Cowen got in a major pain for the government, would be very hard to retain and make them more reliant on Independent deals to cover for any wobbles

dulpit

A lot of randos in the Europe South list…

5 seats, you'd assume 1 each from FG (Seán Kelly), FF (probably Kelleher as incumbent) and Sinn Féin (no idea) would get elected, but the last 2 would be a toss-up between a 2nd SF, a 2nd FF, Mick Wallace and Grace O'Sullivan. Maybe the 2nd FG gets involved too, but I'd be surprised.

Can't see anything for the likes of Labour, Soc Dems, the assorted minor parties or Michael McNamara.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122052871#Comment_122052871

Many of N Boylan's voters will see them selves as anti establishment and in the main will not transfer to the likes of FF/ FG/ Lab/ Green but they may transfer for others who are in the anti-establishment milieu, so I expect regressive types like Dwyer etc will pick up transfers but so too will higher profile left candidates like Daly, Smith, and the Shinners.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053212#Comment_122053212

Constituency has gained a seat since then. Be a very poor show for FF not to take one seat from five in what would traditionally have been the strongest of the three regions for them, running with arguably the biggest political beast among any of the candidates in the country.

As for the prospective by-election, presumably an inveterate schemer like Harris has taken that into account if he truly intends the government to run into 2025.

MFPM

Regulator has said it's not appropriate to stand for election and host a radio show. Boylan will have to stand aside it seems.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053320#Comment_122053320

Sean Kelly and Billy Kelleher should be safe enough aye.

It gets messy then , SF should get at least one in from Paul Gavan or Funchion, although if pushed not sure which of the two is the more likely? Gavan maybe due to incumbency ?

However then who knows! Its between Wallace (indy ) O Sullivan ( Green) , Ni Mhurchu (FF) and probably Mc Namara.

I don't think FG can get a second candidate in and would be surprised to see SDS win a seat despite Holly's presence down their.

Tippman24

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997703#Comment_121997703

Correction, Jack Lynch won six All Ireland Medals in the trot.Cork Hurlers 1941, 42, 43, and 44. The footballers beat Cavan in 1945 and Hurlers beat Kilkenny in 1946.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122053552#Comment_122053552

Bit before my time.

You right, he was the real Taoiseach.

L1011

Boylan off air, although he's the very first guest in with the cover presenter

hotmail.com

One thing is for sure - these elections are the most interesting for some time.

All because of the refugee disaster the last 12 months.

corkie

@dulpit Can't see anything for the likes of Labour, Soc Dems, the assorted minor parties or Michael McNamara.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0423/1445180-michael-mcnamara/

https://twitter.com/MlMcNamaraTD/status/1782725917183295945

Sorry on the source of this: -

https://twitter.com/griptmedia/status/1782860092494295494

I'm in Cork! Am I right in that I maybe able to vote for him?

The Social Democrats have selected Cork based solicitor Susan Doyle as
their party candidate for the European elections in Ireland South.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122055458#Comment_122055458

Oh I know he's running. Just don't think he'll finish anywhere near the seats is all...