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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Spring 2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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29-02-2024 12:48pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Spring 2024.
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
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Winter if over and done with and time to focus on Spring.
After a mostly very mild, wet and windy winter Spring will begin on a chilly note with a showery north-westerly flow over the coming few days. Cold rain showers likely in many areas which may be wintry on Friday 1st of March, snow mostly over high ground and any accumulations will be very temporary over low lying areas. Showers mostly of cold rain from Saturday.
Temperatures generally 3 to 6C on Friday afternoon.
Over the coming few nights frost can be expected in places with temperatures getting down as low as -2 or -3 in places. daytime temperatures this weekend in mid single digits generally and feeling very raw at times. A big change on what we have experienced over the past month or more.
Next week temperatures will slowly start to recover back to more average values but still may be slightly below average in places.
It will remain unsettled with low pressure around Ireland much of the time delivering bands of rain or showers.
From Wednesday it will become milder with winds up from the south or south-east. Temperatures getting back towards double figures from Wednesday onwards.
Average amounts of rainfall over the coming week but above average rainfall in western areas.
Post edited by Gonzo on2
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A much drier 10 days coming up with less than 10mm of rainfall forecast for parts of Ulster and Leinster. Only trace amounts for western Scotland and East Anglia. Quite a turnaround from a much wetter than average February.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Quite windy for Kerry and up along the Western coasts for a time later tomorrow into Tuesday. A deepening LP which has upped the speeds in the last couple of runs. Latest UKMO a way out on its own showing very strong stormy conditions ............too far ahead of the pack at this stage, will see what the next run brings out.
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Windier along the coastal areas in the SW on the latest ECM, Wetter also and cold mid level 850hpa temps possibly giving a bit of sleet on higher ground, parameters there also maybe for a few sparks over the water near the SW coast for a time tomorrow morning. Wind and rain sweeping up over he country tomorrow.
UKMO has pared back the wind speeds quite a lot whereas the ECM has increased and both looking quite similar now. High end Yellow along the SW coastal fringes.
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The northwest is looking largely dry over the next 7 days. Southern counties clocking up about 25mm of rainfall. A much welcome reprieve after February saw 9 stations record over 150% of their February LTA rainfall and 2 stations record over 200% of their February LTA rainfall.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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The forecast (GFS) rainfall totals up to Sunday evening bring a much welcome reprieve for the Shannon River Basin and the sodden Mid-West and South-West. The Western Isles unusually are the driest spot in Ireland and the UK.]
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Under the influence of LP for the week coming with rain spreading inland from the W tomorrow afternoon, very wet in the SW especially higher terrain . Bit milder in general for the next five days. Tues, Thurs , Fri and Sat could see temps up to 13 or 14C or so. Breezy at times, but nothing of note. No let up in the rain after this week with some big totals showing up in Atlantic coastal counties, not a good start for the farmers this spring especially the Western half of the country.
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Colder airmass on the way from Friday and back to some wintry showers with hail showers becoming a feature over the weekend, more wintry the Further up along the NW with perhaps some white mountain caps over the weekend, cooler by day and night over the weekend than recent days. Looks showery on Fri with good bright spells ,showers retreating to coasts by evening, more widespread on Sat with maybe some longer spells of rain but dry spells also, again retreating to coasts by evening, feeling very cold in the wind, Sunday looks like more widespread frontal rain.
A bit breezy at time on Fri, more widespread windy conditions on Saturday. Sunday for now looks very wet in the S, SE with upwards of 25mm showing up in 24 hrs but will need to keep an eye on the track of the fronts closer to the time.
Slow moving fairly narrow frontal band making its way across the country tomorrow, breezy and windy along Atlantic coasts, rainfall amounts not huge, the West getting the highest of maybe up around 10 or 15mm in places, weakening as it crosses the country.
528dam line S of the country for a time over the weekend.
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Heaviest rain now more in the Western half of the country on Sun into Mon and heaviest nearer the coasts. Further East should remain dry until evening with rain spreading to all areas for a time. Quite an unsettled outlook with LP's dominant and well past 120hrs too, Temps remaining on the cool side.
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Quite a high end Yellow warning now for Kerry going by the Euro models. With the saturated ground getting up to 50mm would cause local flooding, wouldn't take much more of an upgrade to make it an Orange warning, will see the mornings charts.
Edit: included additional chart .
Post edited by Meteorite58 on4 -
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Getting breezy tomorrow and quite windy on Monday from the NW, up to 12C or so tomorrow, cooler Monday maybe struggling to get out of single figures away from S coasts, feeling very cold in the windy. Wintry showers in the NW, N and W on Monday. Rainfall amounts low away from the NW.
Staying on the cooler side for a few days.
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Trace amounts of rainfall for the far south over the next 10 days. Most of the accumulated rainfall figures for the period, as depicted on this GFS chart, will fall between now and Wednesday.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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An almost centrally located ridge of high pressure will likely lead to Sunday probably being the nicest day of the year so far weather wise. Gives the prospects for good sunshine across the nation along with mid-teens temperatures and light winds up to 17C in the sheltered west. I wouldn't rule out slightly higher.
Ireland is somewhat lucky here (we deserve a bit of luck for once) as we are on the periphery of a push of relatively cool air aloft which will cover England over the weekend.
I'd be wary though for eastern coasts with threat of low cloud later in the day as the wind veers north of east. Just a possibility for now.
This is not likely to last with the high pressure retrogressing to our west through early next week which whilst it won't be a washout will increase the cloud cover again and bring down the temperatures by day. Monday probably still quite mild in the west in the mid to upper teens but more cloud around.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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That sea fog can stay out there tomorrow 😁, will see if it affects the temps here near the Kerry coast. ECM showing getting up to 18C in places. Seabreeze keeping the temps down a bit along the coastal fringes.
The best of the temperatures in the Southern half of the country on Monday, will we see 20C in S Cork?
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Looking nice and mild for many tomorrow, cloudy at times, a bit damp in parts for a time in the top third of the country and maybe the midlands and perhaps along the S coastal areas from decaying occluded fronts , amounts low though.
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High pressure hanging around at the end of the week hopefully. Should be nice calm and dry conditions for the Darkness Into Light walk on Saturday morning.
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Foggy night in store and sea fog lingering around the coasts in parts tomorrow keeping the temp down where it lingers, getting up around 22c or so inland, possibly higher in parts of the midlands and widespread thunderstorms breaking out in the afternoon more so in the Northern half of the country from around Limerick up.
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Dry for many tomorrow although cloudy and relatively cool , some light rain or drizzle in the NE and E, a few patches of drizzle around the country but nothing much. After a cool night tonight getting up to 14 or 15C tomorrow.
Frontal rain spreading across the country from early Sat, the E and NE should be mostly dry until late afternoon , slow to reach the NE. Patchy rain and drizzle overnight Sat into Sun followed by widespread showers and could get widespread thunderstorms with heavy downpours and hail leading to spot flooding. Showers to lessen into the evening but still some scattered about.
Very cool under the rain on Saturday, hard to believe only seeing 10 or 12C on the ECM, a bit breezy around the SW coasts and a bit of breeze as the front goes through, cool overnight into Sunday and a bit milder getting up around 14 to 16C, best further East.
Drier for parts on Monday but showers also and a weak front later Mon perhaps over part of the country, no great change in the temperatures.
Cold Upper Pool aiding convection and instability on Sunday.
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