Dynamic Electricity Price Tariffs Consultation Paper

SD_DRACULA

This can F right off, just another backdoor to increase costs without unit rates, this nonsense should be abolished and just included in the unit price, admin BS story we are given doesn't fly with me.

10-10-20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778485#Comment_121778485

Add it to the list there.

Did you know we're making a list? 🤣

SD_DRACULA

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778517#Comment_121778517

Checking it twice?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778578#Comment_121778578

Not sure if it will be anywhere as flexible, not seeing anything for negative pricing, they are suggesting a minimum pricing per kwh and then a dynamic charge on top of that based on time of use.

This looks garbage to me (I know it's just an example)

It might work if the base is a lot lower and if the dynamic one can be 0

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121779179#Comment_121779179

There seems to be 3 components, the standing charge, base unit rate and dynamic rate

My understanding is that the price you're charged by the electricity supplier also includes some network charges on top of the market rate

This is presumably what the base rate is supposed to capture

Of course the supplier could make that zero and just capture the costs entirely in the dynamic rate

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778485#Comment_121778485

I think the likes of octopus agile still have standing charges

If agree there should be price controls on the standing charges. It should be to account for the network charges only, any "admin" costs from the supplier should be in the unit rate

unkel

I've been hoping for this and heavily investing my time and money into building up my hardware for years, can't wait. I'll be the first signing up. Can possibly make a 5 figure sum per year from that. And do more for the transistion to renewables than installing solar panels / getting EVs / switching to heatpumps, etc.

To show how far we are behind, in the Netherlands this has been available for several years, it is mandatory all electricity supplier offer this from 01/01/25, most do already

And it is not all for nerds like us either. Over there you can buy a 20kWh complete battery system for €8k (that's the biggest one) fully installed and deployed and automated and it starts working for you. It made €2k net profit last year, the company kept 30% before giving you the rest. Tax free of course

Bring it on!

10-10-20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121837013#Comment_121837013

I have a spreadsheet which I'll share with you all. It has a breakdown of the unit price ranges taken off the SEMO website over the period of a year. It should be interesting reading as you'll most likely be able to review the price-ranges per season. I'll try get the finger out this weekend and get it finished.

10-10-20

SEMO-Data-DAM-Analysis.txt

Here's the file. Rename it from ,txt to .ods (open data) and it should open in Excel or LibreOffice, etc. There are no macros, only tables, calculations and graphs.

Basically I have taken data off the DAM (day ahead market - https://www.semopx.com/markets/day-ahead-market/) at ~10-day intervals and completed a box and whisker analysis on it (Sheet "BoxplotBranches").

• The limits on the boxes represent the 5th and 95th percentile.
• The whiskers represent the max and mins.
• The 5% between the boxes and the end of the whiskers are the highest (or lowest) 5-percentile of the range - ie the painful high price or the joyous low price.
• All rates are EUR/MWh – To convert to EUR/kWh, divide by 1000.
• SEMO DAM rate only, this does not include the standing charge or base unit charge.
• I'm sharing this on the basis that any additional analysis performed on this is re-shared on this same thread.

Enjoy.

10-10-20

Here's some of my personal analysis for the days sampled:

Lowest rate periods: The lowest rates are strictly speaking 01:00 to 05:59, especially so during Winter. 22:00 to 22:59 and also 06:00 to 06:59 also offer good rates with little variability. The 95th percentiles are short with long 5th percentiles meaning that you're more likely to get a better rate during these times than a bad one. 23:00 to 23:59 appears to be a sham of a time to buy power.

Highest rate periods: Unsurprisingly the daily highs are seen around the 09:00 and 18:00 marks with very high upper variability in the unit price right though from 08:00 to 19:59.

Seasonal standard deviation: Seasonal SD (variability on price around the mean) is highest during Winter at around 53 (EUR/MWh) and lowest in Spring at around 17. The unpredictability around wind is probably a significant factor here, maybe Spring brings steady gusts while Winter brings more reliable airflows, but the ongoing conflict in Ukraine will also have added to the variability.

Point highs and lows: The 20th of September 2023 brought the lowest price point of -3 at 02:00 and 04:00 (Met.ie: "Strong winds were also a feature between the 18th and 20th with low pressure to the north of Ireland"). The 28th of February was the high point for the year with the day being the highest overall for 19 of 24 hours (Met.ie: "high pressure built over Ireland from the west and dominated for the rest of the week, keeping it mostly dry"). Another notable high-point for the year is the 10th of March where it beat the 28th Feb on two hour periods and remained in second-place for much of the rest of the day.

So trying to present a market trader's view or a template for Home Assistant/NodeRed from all of this.. I think we already know the simplistic lie-of-the-land in that respect: Buy between 01:00 and 05:00, sell between 08:00 and 11:59 and 16:00 to 20:59), but the seasonal variation especially in Winter would be one to keep an eye on. Moderate storms are beneficial in terms of pushing down the unit rate overnight, but high pressure creates a lull and pushes it upwards. There are generally no "good deals" between 07:00 and 21:59 where the price dips unexpectedly low, so the chances of a cheap-charge between these times is limited, but you might get a relatively ok deal between 14:00 to 15:59. Looking ahead on the day will tell you how good of a deal that short time period really is.

In terms of modeling a storage system and energy plan, having the ability to run the whole-house for an 18 to 19 hour period would be a minimum to avoid day-long highs. I'd stay away from building a storage system to charge another battery (such as EV's), those should take all of their power between the low times indicated above (and quadruple-conversion is a killer). I'm going to say that having a battery which is 1.5 to 2.0 times the daily household consumption average is where you want to be to best manage the rates and to get you though some of the Winter-induced extended weather-related events.

In terms of running the rule over what return on investment one could make by moving to Dynamic Electricity Price Tariffs or 'DEPT', I'll gladly contribute if somebody else kicks it off.

I'd appreciate further feedback on this if people have it. As always it's presented as-is and E&OE, so to speak.

JayBee66

V2X (i.e. Vehicle-to-Load, Vehicle-to-Home, Vehicle-to-Grid) is becoming more common on cars. Rather than filling your homes with static batteries, to take advantage of agile pricing, it may make sense to have a large mobile battery in the form of a car.

Looking at the EV database, there are 42 models in production or about to enter production that have V2X capability.

Something to consider when next getting a car.

Of course, generating credit through agile pricing will be taxed, if you are good at it and your yearly credit goes over the €400 threshold.

con747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121859566#Comment_121859566

That €400 is per named eligible person on the account, some here have 4-5 named on their accounts so can avail of a lot more tax free.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121859566#Comment_121859566

Unfortunately there are no cars / inverter combos on the market yet for any reasonable money that can do V2G. And it is not a simple step to go from V2L, that several new cars now have, to V2G

I have said for many years that V2G is the gold standard, the holy grail. It would make the transition to renewable energy an awful lot easier if most EVs would be connected to the grid most of the time they are not in use

But for me personally, I couldn't wait several more years for it. I have no intention to wait for a car coming out that has V2G and then having to buy that new. So I simply increased my home storage to the size of a long range car battery. It is a lot cheaper than it used to be with LiFePO4 now only just over €100 per kWh delivered to your door from China and significantly further dropping within the next year or two. Or buy pre-made packs that now already cost about half of what they cost 2 years ago. Both will work with most cheap existing hybrid inverters and can be fully automated to maximise revenue / profit from dynamic pricing. Bring it on!

10-10-20

Anyway lads, have a think about the proposals in that consultation document and try to specifically match it to your own personal use-case or apply what you know about other regions where this is in place. See what holes and opportunities are present and pop any ideas here. The closing date is the 5th April, we should aim to have a submission that we can all email in and hopefully have a say in the matter.

tonysopprano

Below is link tp Spanish electricity daily pricing per hour. Spain is moving this year to dynamic pricing per 15minute timeframe.

https://www.surinenglish.com/spain/updated-daily-electricity-prices-spain-20230224124137-nt.html

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883818#Comment_121883818

There's very little in it. And no negative prices, which is disappointing. Spain needs a lot more PV 😁

But better to have the option of flexible rates than not. Wish Ireland would move out from the dark ages a bit quicker...

SD_DRACULA

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883882#Comment_121883882

Also how is it cheapest from 2-5pm and not after midnight? They have no wind power?

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883999#Comment_121883999

PV ;-)

In the Netherlands the price is now nearly always negative around mid day when the weather is nice

Two EVs and very large home battery and working from home most days. I would make a fortune living there, even if I didn't have any PV. In fact, you'd probably need to disable them any time the price is negative.

SD_DRACULA

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121884052#Comment_121884052

Right, forgot there is a sun in all other places with this abysmal weather we have for the last few days 🤣

tonysopprano

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883999#Comment_121883999

Spanish have a habit of siesta between 2 and 5 and only go out to eat after 10pm, so midnight to 2 or 3am is busy time