AMOC/Atlantic Ocean circulation is nearing devastating tipping point - New Study

aidanodr

Why I posted this HERE - Would really be interested in the weather experts here chiming in on this one as it surely will have a very large impact on IRELAND?

Consequences - "Sea levels in the Atlantic would rise by a metre in some regions, inundating many coastal cities. "

How concerning is this for us here in Ireland?

The study - Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course | Science Advances

The Guardian Article on same published today 9th Feb 2024 -

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-finds

Thelonious Monk

Better sell my house ffs

secman

We're all fcked.........I'm ordering my doomsday poster boars.

cnocbui

Don't worry, if the AMOC shuts down, any sea level rise will be brief, as it will be the end of the current interglacial period. What then follows is much of Europe being crushed under a 2 km thick ice sheet again and sea levels falling by around 100m.

Two of the other major signs of an interglacial period ending are rapid rises in atmosheric CO2 levels and a rapid rise in global average temperature.

StormForce13

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121747629#Comment_121747629

How many of us will be around to see it?

Akrasia

The sea level rise will be on the western seaboard of the US. But there will be devastating consequences for Ireland if this does happen abruptly

The AMOC is a regional tipping point, it doesn't mean we're going back into another 'ice age'

But it would mean our climate would be severely disrupted affecting our economy severely

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121749026#Comment_121749026

Probably none, barring an amazing breakthrough in gerontology to extend lifespans. From AMOC shutting down to the end of summers seems to take around 400 years. However there have been some suggestions glacial period onsets can happen in less than a decade, but I seem to recall there was some push-back against that claim.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121749183#Comment_121749183

The study linked shows a complete shutdown of the AMOC in less than 100 years

Akrasia

If there is a curve involved, we could already be at the beginning of that shutdown given that the strength has already weakened significantly in recent decades

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121749209#Comment_121749209

Computer models are great. Absolute certainty concerning the evolution of reality, brought to us by a lot of ones and zeros.

Rebelbrowser

Is it wrong that, notwithstanding the existential risk this poses to humankind, my big take-away is that it might snow in Ireland? Snow, yay!

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121749308#Comment_121749308

Who said absolute certainty? The models may not be 100% correct. Haven't been 100% wrong either though. The climate is warming just as predicted......unless I'm missing something?????

Billcarson

A comment on fb in reply to an Irish article on climate change which said Jan 2024 was the warmest on record for the globe as a whole. These are the kind of idiots we are dealing with. The scientists and models and facts and figures etc are all wrong, her cat knows the score.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121749448#Comment_121749448

Yes, we may in time be searching deep fi for signs of milder weather. Well we will probably all be dead by that stage so maybe it will be our grandkids who are doing it, assuming boards is still around 🤔

.Donegal.

I’m remember seeing a met office image of the impacts if it collapsed. I think(could be wrong) the far north of Ireland was on average 5/6c colder and 4/5c elsewhere. I’ll take a look for it later. Would be insane if it ever came to pass.

Kiteview

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121749923#Comment_121749923

Think of the positives. We could have thriving skiing resorts in Donegal. Maybe even have the annual Davos conference relocated there! 😀

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121749923#Comment_121749923

I'm hoping that someday in the future, Eamon Ryans descendents decide to take a bike tour of Connemara, and that they get eaten by the Polar bears.

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121749636#Comment_121749636

That cat is suffering from old age, not climate change.

I'm no great believer or disbeliveer in the climate crisis. It's changing for sure but not in a doomsday spiral which the media might have us believe. That doesn't mean we shouldn't take sensible steps not the pollute the place.

SuperBowserWorld

If people lived for 300 years they might actually care about the future and have some kind of long term vision.

The culture is so focussed on self and short term gain that anything outside of this window is irrelevant and not valued.

So, a person who plants a native wood is seen as a crazy person, whereas someone who makes a lot of money reviewing mobile phones on YouTube is seen as some kind of Messiah.

nachouser

Ah sure, methane hydrate releases will probably get us long before this.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121750464#Comment_121750464

So that explains the funny looks. I thought it was just my dress sense.

Billcarson

I don't know, it's like when it comes to climate change debate its like being in the twilight zone or something. It's like I'm living in a total mad house when I come across comments like this.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121751769#Comment_121751769

mate you'd go nuts if you read twitter and facebook comments all day. take solace in the fact that smart, busy people out there, don't have time to be commenting on facebook articles, it's mostly just numbskulls.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121749308#Comment_121749308

Tell me you don't understand climate science without saying you don't understand climate science...

.Donegal.

I read a little more about this study earlier today but sadly it’s behind a paywall now. It was the most detailed model run so far looking in to this. Craziest aspect is London average temperature would drop by 10c, Bergen in Norway 15c.

It was the first study that had a gradual release of freshwater that lead to a shutdown compared to previous ones that had all the freshwater released at once. Still the gradual release of freshwater modelled exceeds the current rate of melting in Greenland. They’re making some adjustments and going to run it again.

Thelonious Monk

https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1756652798224027953

Some nice reading to add to the usual Sunday fear

aidanodr

@Thelonious Monk "Some nice reading to add to the usual Sunday fear"

Thats the Guardian article link posted in the Original Post above :D

aidanodr

From Prof Stefan Rahmstorf - Head of Earth System Analysis @ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & professor of Physics of the Oceans @ Potsdam University. 10 minute video at X link below .. part of a pretty large X thread on this subject

Keep in mind this video is PRE the study in the OP. It is from a conference back in September 2023. Stefan finishes with "recent studies have shown maybe the tipping point is too close for comfort"

https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1685221353262084096

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121752271#Comment_121752271

Oh I think I understand climate science fairly well. It's about distortion of truth and making observational data fit a narrative. A good example would be the curent ludicrous claim that the current slowing and possible tipping of the AMOC is due to anthropogenic climate change, despite the AMOC likely slowing for at least the last thousand years, possibly 2.

If I were to construct a climate hysteria intelligence test, I'd include the above graph - all the lurid green bits are my additions and I have erased the axies labels for fun. The question is: what would you think would be the most likely direction the green line on the right will follow next, if time is measured from left to right?

A) Continue upwards on it's current trajectory

B) Continue horizontally to the right

C) Change direction and descend steeply at -40 -- -60°

You believe in climate science, so the obvious answer is A, right?

Another question based on the same graph:

If the green dots represent AMOC shutdown events, is the one on the right:

A) Completely unexpected, time to panic

B) I'm colour blind, are you sure it's green

C) To be expected, no reason to panic (yet)

You of course will pick A, which is exactly what the climate scientists have picked also, so at least you are in good company.

cnocbui

I think the banning of CFC's may well have done the job and prevented an increase in the hole in the ozone layer. That could be why it didn't get worse, so since something drastic was done about it, scepticism of the original warnings is probably misplaced.