January 2024 Boards weather forecast contest -- delayed late penalties to 0300h 2nd

M.T. Cranium

NOTE: For regulars who don't need to read through, late penalties begin on 2nd at 0300h due to late posting of thread.

Welcome to the 2024 Boards weather forecast contest. Our scoring format is based on the best 10 of 12 monthly forecasts. This allows you to miss one or two, or blow one or two, without being knocked out of the race. There's a secondary contest based on the total score.

For anyone who has been a lurker or an occasional entrant, why not become a regular? (at last count there were 24 forecasters who showed up more or less regularly, and about a dozen or so occasional visitors). You are also forecasting against Normal and the more formidable Con Sensus.

Here's how it works. Every month we predict these five weather elements, and one extra "bonus" question that is a last minute decision based on the weather pattern (or at least it should be, right? ... let's move on) ...

1. Predict the "IMT" or Irish Mean Temperature which is the average for night and day at these five locations: Casement, Mullingar, Claremorris, Oak Park, and Shannon. (In January the normal IMT is 5.1 C). That is worth a maximum of 25 points. You lose one point per 0.1 deg error.
2. Predict the MAX which is the highest reading at any of the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website. Worth 20 points, same error.
3. Predict the MIN, lowest reading, otherwise same idea. Worth 20 points, same error as the first two.
4. Predict the PRC which is the rainfall plus liquid equivalent of any other types of precipitation, as a percentage of normal for the average at eleven locations in Ireland. Those are the five listed in 1 above, plus Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle (in Wexford), Cork, and Valentia. (worth 15 points, you lose one point for each 3% error, so let's say you predict 120% and the outcome is 129%, then you score 12/15. (what is normal PRC in January you may ask? ... the average for the eleven stations is 111 mm, the south and west get a bit more, the east closer to 65-70 mm. But your forecast should be a percentage rather than an actual amount ... if anyone submits an actual amount, that will be converted using 111 mm).
5. Predict the SUN, hours of sunshine also as a percentage of normal, from stats gathered at six locations around Ireland (Casement, Dublin, Cork, Valentia, Shannon, Belmullet). The average duration of sunshine in January is about 2 hours a day, so if you think we might average 2.4 hours, predict 120% (etc). Worth 10 points and the score is reduced for each multiple of 5% error.
6. BONUS for January __ Predict the maximum temperature on Saturday 6th at Mullingar. (10 points, scores are always by rank order regardless of whether the errors are big or small)
7. A further note on scoring, in cases where more than one third of the entrants would score zero or where the distribution of scores is abnormally low, and it can happen, then we boost scoring using a formula that approximates how scoring usually goes, but you can "hammer" the field by scoring within 2 of a top score in which case anyone else's boost will be reduced by half. Here's an example of how that might work. Let's say it's quite a cold month and you predict an IMT of 1.0 and that is so close that you would score 23/25. So you now have the "hammer" and your score goes to 25, then if the next score might have been only 8/25. instead of going to 24/25, that person will only get 16/25 (half the difference). If the third best forecast was going to have three points, then it would be boosted to 13/25 instead of 23/25. But if nobody has the hammer, the points boosts are more generous. There is an attempt made to pick a scoring pattern that somewhat approximates the differences between forecasts, but it is not overly rigorous so basically when scores are bad, your score will depend mostly on your rank order no matter how big the errors turn out to be. I can say that in the past few years this boost of scoring has been needed about once every two or three months and sometimes for more than one category.

Deadline for entries is usually 0300h on the 1st of each month and you are penalized one point for every four hours late beyond that. However, in January we sometimes have a more lenient start; this year because I was late posting the thread, we will only penalize after 0300h of 2nd of January and then at the usual rate applied on first.

Please enter in a format like this, as I copy the forecasts and make up a table of entries (if I copy them, it is harder to make mistakes but check what you see).

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max Temp 6th Mullingar

M.T. Cranium ________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ -9.8 _ 060 _ 125 ____ 6.4 (I may edit this before deadline)

Normal _____________5.1 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 7.8

(con sensus will be the median of all forecasts other than Normal)

Good luck then if you decide to join in. The threads during the month are interesting as we track the evolution of the contest stats from week to week.

Bsal

Bsal_____________4.8 _ 13.5 _ -8.0 _ 112 _ 105 ____ 6.0

Tazio

Tazio_____________5.5 _ 16.0 _ -4.5 _ 85 _ 110 ____ 9.0

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________5.4 _ 15.3 _ -6.7 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 4.8

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____________4.8 _ 15.0 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 5.9

dasa29

Dasa29 _____________5.5 _ 13.5 _ -5.0 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 7.0

John mac

john mac _____________5.3 _ 14.4 _ -6.7 _ 98 _ 105 ____ 5.3

kindredspirit

𝑲𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒓𝒆𝒅 𝑺𝒑𝒊𝒓𝒊𝒕 _____ 5.3 ___ 13.1 ___ -7.1 ___ 95 ___ 100 ___ 6.6

sunflower3

Sunflower3_____________5.4 _ 14.2_ -5.2 _ 85 _ 95 ____ 5.4

Gonzo

Gonzo _____________4.9 _ 14.7 _ -6.4 _ 092 _ 108 ____ 7.2

esposito

Esposito_____________4.9 _ 13.5 _ -7.8 _ 080 _ 125 ____ 7.2

DOCARCH

DOCARCH_________5.2_13.8_-5.2_090_105____4.6

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____________5.9 _ 15.8 _ -7.5 __90_ 110 ____ 6.8

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad ____4.9___11.5__-8__100__100__5.9

WolfeEire

Wolfeire _____4.6___13.6____-7.9____95_____115____5.8

rameire

Rameire_____________5.4 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 88 _ 108 ____ 4.0

Joe Public

Joe Public _____________4.8 _ 13.8 _ -8.8 _ 108 _ 128 ____ 8.8

appledrop

Appledrop_____5.0___14.5____-6.1___98___123____6.2

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___4.6___13.7___-8.2__77__115___5.8

200motels

200motels-------------------- 4.9 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 082 _ 112 ___5.7

SleetAndSnow

SleetandSnow_____________5.1 _ 14.2 _ -5 _ 80 _ 110 ____ 5.7

mrskinner

Skinner_____5.1____13.5____-6.5____85____115____5.5

bazlers

Bazler___3.1___10.2___-11.3___92___115___4.3

pauldry

Pauldry____________5.1 _ 14.5 _ -6.3 _ 81 _ 115____ 6.6

dacogawa

Dacogawa__________5.3 _ 14.9_ -5.5 _ 87 _ 120 _ 6.9

waterways

waterways _____________ 5.0 _ 14.1_ -8.8 _ 084 _ 101 _ 6.1

14.1 not 14.01

adam240610

Adam240610____4.5__14.0__-6.9__77__122___6.0

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____________5.6 _ 14.1 _ -6.6 _ 79 _ 112 ____ 6.0

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts January 2024

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 6 Jan

Jpmarn _____________ 5.9 _ 15.8 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 6.8

Tae laidir ____________5.6 _ 14.1 _ -6.6 _ 079 _ 112 ___ 6.0

Tazio _______________5.5 _ 16.0 _ -4.5 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 9.0

Dasa29 _____________5.5 _ 13.5 _ -5.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 7.0

Artane2002 _________ 5.4 _ 15.3 _ -6.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 4.8

Sunflower3 __________5.4 _ 14.2 _ -5.2 _ 085 _ 095 ___ 5.4

Rameire_____________5.4 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 088 _ 108 ___ 4.0

Dacogawa ___________5.3 _ 14.9 _ -5.5 _ 087 _ 120 ___ 6.9

john mac ____________5.3 _ 14.4 _ -6.7 _ 098 _ 105 ___ 5.3

Kindred Spirit ________ 5.3 _ 13.1 _ -7.1 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 6.6

DOCARCH ___________5.2 _ 13.8 _ -5.2 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 4.6

___ NormaL _________ 5.1 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.8

Pauldry _____________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -6.3 _ 081 _ 115 ___ 6.6

SleetandSnow ________5.1 _ 14.2 _ -5.0 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 5.7

MrSkinner ___________ 5.1 _ 13.5 _ -6.5 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 5.5

___ Con Sensus ______ 5.0 _ 14.0 _ -6.7 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 6.0

Appledrop ___________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -6.1 _ 098 _ 123 ___ 6.2

waterways __________ 5.0 _ 14.1 _ -8.8 _ 084 _ 101 ___ 6.1

Gonzo ______________4.9 _ 14.7 _ -6.4 _ 092 _ 108 ___ 7.2

200motels __________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 082 _ 112 ___ 5.7

Esposito ____________ 4.9 _ 13.5 _ -7.8 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 7.2

Cornerstonelad _______4.9 _ 11.5 _ -8.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 5.9

sryanbruen __________4.8 _ 15.0 _ -7.1 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 5.9

Joe Public ___________ 4.8 _ 13.8 _ -8.8 _ 108 _ 128 ___ 8.8

Bsal ________________4.8 _ 13.5 _ -8.0 _ 112 _ 105 ___ 6.0

Mr stonewall _________ 4.6 _ 13.7 _ -8.2 _ 077 _ 115 ___ 5.8

Wolfeire _____________4.6 _ 13.6 _ -7.9 _ 095 _ 115 ___ 5.8

Adam240610 _________4.5 _ 14.0 _ -6.9 _ 077 _ 122 ___ 6.0

M.T. Cranium _________4.4 _ 14.0 _ -9.8 _ 060 _ 125 ___ 6.4

Bazlers _____________ 3.1 _ 10.2 _-11.3 _ 092 _ 115 ___ 4.3

BLIZZARD7 __(-2) ____ 2.5 _ 12.2 _-14.3 _ 073 _ 126 ___ 4.8

-------------------------------------------------

Con sensus of 29 forecasts is 15th ranked (median)

New entries are of course welcome ... I believe all 24 "regular" entrants from last year's contest are in the house.

Tazio, Wolfeire, Bazlers, SleetandSnow all participated in a few contests last year as well. Welcome back everybody.

The general consensus appears to be near or slightly colder than average although the ones who disagree and look for a fairly mild outcome all did pretty well last year, so ...

generally speaking not overly wet in our group opinion, and perhaps a few extra hours (or minutes) of sun.

Range of forecasts for 6th at Mullingar is not huge and I will score them in a range of 4 to 10 as a result, since nobody (or all of us) can be far out. Range is 4.3 to 9.0 C.

Will adjust to a different range if outcome is outside our range.

-----------------------

Tracking max and min on 1st ... 11.9 and -0.2 ...

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 2.5 _ 12.2 _-14.3 _ 073 _ 126 ___ 4.8

M.T. Cranium

Preparing for scoring t e bonus question for Saturday's max at Mullingar ...

FORECASTER ________ Mull 6 Jan

Tazio _______________ 9.0

Joe Public ___________ 8.8

___ NormaL _________ 7.8

Gonzo ______________ 7.2

Esposito ____________ 7.2

Dasa29 _____________ 7.0

Dacogawa ___________ 6.9

Jpmarn _____________ 6.8

Kindred Spirit ________ 6.6

Pauldry _____________ 6.6

M.T. Cranium _________6.4

Appledrop ___________ 6.2

waterways ___________6.1

___ Con Sensus ______ 6.0

Tae laidir ____________ 6.0

Bsal ________________6.0

Adam240610 _________6.0

Cornerstonelad _______5.9

sryanbruen __________5.9

Mr stonewall _________5.8

Wolfeire ____________ 5.8

SleetandSnow ________5.7

200motels ___________5.7

MrSkinner ___________5.5

Sunflower3 __________ 5.4

john mac ____________5.3

Artane2002 __________4.8

BLIZZARD7 __(-2) ____ 4.8

DOCARCH ___________ 4.6

Bazlers _____________ 4.3

Rameire_____________ 4.0