Iran going nuclear or already there ?

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693302#Comment_121693302

Didn't know that...but ultimately the Ayatollah probably gave the go ahead!

It doesn't mean it is sensible for the US (or even Saudia Arabia!) to try and assassinate him while out of the country.

Assassinations of senior political/military figures are not a great idea imo, unless you are at war, or you wish to start a war.

The option was I think offered to Trump as upper end (not the "smallest") of a scale of responses after attacks in Syria and Iraq by Iran's "proxies", post the US junking the nuclear deal and reimposing sanctions on Iran.

(I googled and found this interesting opinion piece on it: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-did-the-pentagon-ever-give-trump-the-option-of-killing-soleimani/ ).

CalamariFritti

I said it before in this thread, this is 'weapons of mass destruction' all over again.

And while it's only been 20 years the people who want to fall for it will fall for it again. As can be observed on this thread.

Repo101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692387#Comment_121692387

Maybe, let's see, certainly there will be something but Biden seems keen on trying to deescalate as much as possible. Striking Iranian backed militia isn't going to cut it as a response. I suspect US intelligence would be keen on hitting their drone making facilities but the Biden administration haven't been strong enough on Iran to date. From an American POV, there is an inevitable path to serious escalation here and the longer Iran is allowed to meddle, the worse the situation will get. Interesting times ahead but sooner or later, the US will attack Iran directly.

lumphammer2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693425#Comment_121693425

The US are far from being 'the good side' .... and that is plain to see .... the US more or less inherited the role of the European colonial powers esp Britain and France after WW2 ... Israel was imposed on the region by the post WW2 new world order .... and the Middle East has been full of trouble ever since ... ironically most of that region was peaceful during both world wars ...

The double standards are amazing ... Slobo Milosevic and Saddam Hussein were hammered for doing what they did ... yet Netanyahu and his far right govt from hell can do what they like with complete backing from the West ....

It has been fashionable to blame Iran for all that is wrong ... just like it was fashionable to blame the Saddam Iraq before that ... what we are never told is how many innocent people died in the wars fought to remove Saddam and so on ... and how relatives of those who died fought back ... US soldiers belong back in the US and the US is seen in the region as too close to Israel ...

US policy esp Republicans is controlled by Israel esp Netanyahu ... Biden is trying to placate Republicans with his pro Israel policy ... Trump would take it further and declare war on Iran ... Iran is ruled by the talentless and narrow minded and limited Paydari .... who are not good for Iran or its people .... but who put them there? Trump and Netanyahu .... Netanyahu was opposed to Hassan Rouhani and the JCPOA not to mention Obama since the beginning .... Trump was open to following orders from Netanyahu and to grinding Iran down and scuppering the moderates who had ruled it during the entirety of Trump's hardline regime ....

Militant Islam is a byproduct of interference in the region .... and it ranges from nurturing Islamic fighters like the Afghan Mujahedin to Islamic resistance against occupying armies be they American, Soviet or regional .... the sad thing is I do not see any American candidate likely to win anytime soon who will end this interference in the region and no questions asked alliance with Israel .... if Trump had not done what he did the chances are we'd have no Paydari ruling Iran and would have had a slowly but surely progression from Gilead law to something closer to democracy forming in Iran .... Rouhani was about to end compulsory Hijab but Trump's policy emboldened hardliners who took over much of the govt and was able to scapegoat any moderate opposition as being 'agents for Trump' when they were anything but ....

If Trump got in again god help us is all I can say ... Covid saved us from the worst of what he was capable of last time around ... we better hope and pray another pandemic comes along and scuppers the next hardline Republican regime ...

Biden and the Democrats are a bit better .... but while they may not go to the same extremes as their ultra hardline opposition they still are too close to Netanyahu too .... that link needs to be broken ..... there are plenty Americans who want to see real change and an end to their govt's awful foreign policy ....

lumphammer2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693824#Comment_121693824

I can see why Iran ... under any govt not just the current Paydari but under a moderate govt too ... would need nuclear weapons .... it is the only thing that would deter hardline Republicans from attacking/invading as early as this time next year should Teddy Stuffingbrain get the presidency ....

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121695752#Comment_121695752

I would be really surprised if any country in the middle east allowed the US to go through their airspace or use their bases to attack Iran. It would surely make them a party to the conflict and they know it would make them so also.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696376#Comment_121696376

They are already have bases in the middle east and the likes of Saudi have already been attack via Irans proxies they will be happy to see them Hammered along with Iraq and every other country in the region

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696512#Comment_121696512

Just because the US have the use of a base in another country does not give them the right to attack who they want from it. Once again, no country will allow attacks to be conducted from their airspace because they would then become a party to the conflict and no one is stupid enough to do that. It is easy for the US to run away again, but those countries are stuck where they are forever.

The US have no allies in the middle east anymore, it is all over. They know that but just are having a bit of difficulty accepting it.

SortingYouOut

I guess the US have moved from the shock and awe approach to something more soft cock and blah.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696927#Comment_121696927

Takes a few days for the strongly worded letter to be posted to Tehran 😅

But joking aside, seems Biden has chosen the course of action, just need to wait and see what's targeted. More than likely some tented training camp in the back end of Syria or Iraq etc...

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696674#Comment_121696674

Not true at all .

The US has no Allies in the middle east only you could make that up

Gatling

Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah says they are suspending military and security operations against U.S. forces to "avoid embarrassing" the Iraqi government

Keep digging boys

Covid19

Reading and watching the many articles, factual analysis videos and OSINT threads over the last few days, my take on things is that the US would be extraordinarily foolish to strike anywhere on Iranian territory right now.

Those pushing for a strike are certainly not taking the wider geopolitical implications of a strike into account.

A strike against Iran will put the state of Israel into a seriously vulnerable position, as Hezbollah's vast missile battery ( more sophisticated than one might imagine) would very likely overwhelm the Israeli Air defences, creating an opportunity for other regional actors to make their own moves in and around the Golan heights.

If you could see the area around Tower 22 you would scratch your head in disbelief. Apart from the old UN site and compound, there is literally nothing there. I crossed from Jordan into Syria at that spot back in 2010, leaving behind the $400 it cost to get my passport back out of the hut on the Syrian side.

Most Republicans calling for a strike on Iran could not even find the spot on the map.

Biden really, really needs to thread carefully here. Iran is the many-headed beast of the Middle East. Plus, they will be no push-over. They launched 3 of their own surveillance satellites only a day ago and have some of the best ballistic and cruise missile engineers in the world.

Gatling

@Covid19 strike against Iran will put the state of Israel into a seriously vulnerable position, as Hezbollah's vast missile battery ( more sophisticated than one might imagine) would very likely overwhelm the Israeli Air defences, creating an opportunity for other regional actors to make their own moves in and around the Golan heights....

Tell us all about theses sophisticated vast missles batteries that you think Hizbollah have,

Iron dome and F35s have done a great job since October 7th

Gatling

Seems 6/7 US Airforce KC 135 aerial refuelers have arrived in the middle east early this morning , suggesting that there's going to be significant retaliation not just a single strike, they already have the ability to strike as we've seen on multiple occasions

Danzy

How significant a threat Hezbollah are is the reason why Israel have to take them out.

Yes it will be costly but not as costly as not doing so and letting the threat build further.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121697346#Comment_121697346

So far we've seen Hizbollah chicken out of the fight with Israel despite it's fighters being picked off on a regular basis and the only response is a few rockets all the while they are preparing a large military force on Lebanons border,

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121697308#Comment_121697308

Would you mind sharing the links to the sources you gather this from going forward. It's quite easy to do and gives everyone the same insight as yourself.

Antipathetic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121697434#Comment_121697434

Gatling seems to have trouble sharing his sources. He's probably too fixated on his hatred of Iran and worshipping the American military-industrial complex.

Anyway, he is a source on the tankers and support aircraft being airborne.

https://twitter.com/Sprinter99800/status/1752458802375385431

You can also check out flight radar 24 or for looking at military traffic. I personally prefer ASDB exchange as they don't filter out any traffic to the best of my knowledge, you get to see whatever the linked ground receivers see.

Repo101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121697063#Comment_121697063

Delete

Covid19

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121697085#Comment_121697085

I don't have the time to do your basic research for you, as many folks have already told you on the various other multitude of military-oriented threads you occupy. However, here is just one of hundreds of articles on the matter.

I'm sure Greenpilot, who has similar experiences in the region as I, will be along to explain more. He's retired. I'm not.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2023/11/15/hezbollahs-rocket-missile-and-drone-arsenal-is-huge-and-varied/amp/#amp_ct=1706658432875&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17066583960028&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121698121#Comment_121698121

They actually get worse ....

Someone once told me that Russia would be unstoppable if they invade Europe and they have huge Arsenals of Rockets, missiles,tank ,APCs tanks I laughed then and two + years later of a 3 day invasion of Ukraine I'm still laughing, and Russia doesn't have alot of anything these days, Hamas the same and Hizbollah will go the same way .....

Basically huff and puff they have this and they have that ,

Antipathetic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121698121#Comment_121698121

Thank you for the link it was a fascinating read Hezbollah definitely will be a difficult foe to deal with if Israel makes the unfortunate decision to go to war with the group, or if they decide for whatever reason to attack Israel even more than they have been recently.

I recently saw a video that I'm not sure is authentic or not, of them targeting what they claimed to be an Israeli surveillance base on their border using an Iranian ATGM with built-in TV guidance, so it does appear they do have some fairly modern weaponry at their disposal.

Antipathetic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121698192#Comment_121698192

Is that the best you can do some quick, sarcastic response. No wonder your post count is so high you put zero effort into your posts.

end of the road

if israel go to war with hesbolla they will have their backsides handed to them just like they did in 2006, no question about it, and this time it will be multiples of the cost israel payed which was very high in 2006 with heavy losses.

a few fighters being picked off here and there is nothing to groups like hesbolla, they know the game and how to play it and the cost of israel going to war will be way way higher then leaving them alone could ever be.

israel has overplayed it's hand, large amounts of the world's population see it for the bad actor that it is, the other middle east militaries are quite decent militaries now compared to 1967 or 1973 when even then israel only won because of american support.

lumphammer2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121696376#Comment_121696376

And you'd think the US would have learned its lesson with the mess that was Iraq .... clearly not though .... I believe the minute the next Republican hardliner US govt comes into power an out and out war with Iran will follow .... Covid stopped it last time .... the whole Middle East should not allow the US regime to use their airspace with any such war ... it is time the US is taught an even harder lesson than Iraq if they do decide to go to war ... those Republicans need to be out of office until they are purged of that Trump/Tea Party/far right war mongering mentality and the Democrats need to get their act together too and stop trying to appease them and far right lead Israel .... it is time for a bit of cop on in the world ....

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121698253#Comment_121698253

You probably said there exact same thing after the October 7th mass terrorist attack on Israel and look how thats going,you also keep telling people about how they got backsides handed to them in 2006 pure waffle on your biased behalf

Covid19

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121698722#Comment_121698722

Christ almighty, does it ever end.

The poster is correct. My old man spend decades serving in and around Israel and the Golan H. And he categorically tells me that you absolutely do not mess with Hezbollah. They are one of the main chess pieces on Irans board and their weapons tech, stocks and funding is immense. Israel would be completely overwhelmed in an attack. It would mean the end of Lebanon, but I can guarantee you that Israel would be decimated in the process. The US knows this.

I can see some of the re-purposed oil platforms and some naval assets getting hit, but nothing else.

And then, of course, we have the Saudis. Not a peep from them as yet.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121699288#Comment_121699288

Your Daddy said .......

weisses

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692387#Comment_121692387

Talking about fake news and incoherent waffle.... Just quoting one of your little gems