⚠️ Very unsettled spell of weather associated with Storm Gerrit Weds 27 /Thurs 28 Dec 2023

Meteorite58

GFS 128Z very much an upgrade with very strong winds early Weds Morning, and again early Weds evening and later in the night into early Thursday from a very complex area of LP's riding along a very fast Jet with fast forming waves producing quick moving sharp systems packing a punch into Ireland. Expect changes to track and strengths over the coming runs, was looking at comments online about how there may not be a lot of observations being carried out atm due to the holidays with less balloons being launched etc. so this could sneak up on us so, was thinking no harm to give it its own thread to watch for Storm potential, grand if doesn't reach storm status, will still be a rough couple of days from heavy rainfall and strong winds and very high tides.

ECM something similar

Again I stress it might not reach storm status but worth keeping an eye and will be an interest to see what MT and others have to say.

Met Eireann

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Waterford, Galway, Wexford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Thundery and blustery rain, leading to localised flooding.

Valid: 20:00 Tuesday 26/12/2023 to 06:00 Wednesday 27/12/2023

Issued: 18:59 Monday 25/12/2023

Can edit the thread title as a clearer picture unfolds.

Oscar Bravo

Storm Gerrit

Status Yellow - Wind and Rain warning for Ireland

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy rain overnight (Tuesday), followed by heavy showers tomorrow (Wednesday), may lead to localised flooding.

Strong southerly winds overnight, veering southwesterly tomorrow, in conjunction with spring tides, may lead to coastal flooding.

Valid: 20:00 Tuesday 26/12/2023 to 00:00 Thursday 28/12/2023

Issued: 10:51 Tuesday 26/12/2023

Meteorite58

Met Office named the storm, looks like they will have more impacts there especially West Scotland and W midlands and Wales. Early Thurs morning might be the strongest winds overland in Ireland, will need to keep an eye on it. So far not major winds but combined with heavy rain and high tides gives it more of an impact.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1739609547143106843

Meteorite58

Status Orange - Rainfall warning for Kerry, West Cork

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Very heavy rain overnight (Tuesday), followed by intense heavy showers tomorrow (Wednesday). Localised flooding is possible.
• Valid: 20:00 Tuesday 26/12/2023 to 00:00 Thursday 28/12/2023
• Issued: 11:50 Tuesday 26/12/2023
• 
  

Oscar Bravo

Status Orange - Rainfall warning for Kerry, West Cork

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very heavy rain overnight (Tuesday), followed by intense heavy showers tomorrow (Wednesday). Localised flooding is possible.

Valid: 20:00 Tuesday 26/12/2023 to 00:00 Thursday 28/12/2023

This is not good. I usually take a day to myself on slea head with my camera this time of year.

Have we any idea what the better day will be,?

Meteorite58

After the heavy frontal rain goes through cold air being dragged in behind creating the environment for a lot of convection giving hail and thunderstorms along the W and SW and S and later in the Irish sea. Some might move a bit inland. Wintry showers also and might be seeing a dusting of white on mountains caps by Thurs morning more so in Northern counties. Feeling much colder than of late. Could get some squally heavy showers , intense as Met Eireann puts it and with all the vorticity and shear available funnels or tornadoes are a low possibility.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121536936#Comment_121536936

Depends on how rough you want to get pictures of the sea state😁 but on Weds after the front goes through should get clear spells with towering clouds rolling in overland, might make for some dramatic shots.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121536953#Comment_121536953

Thanks. The one day I've to work 😡

Storm 10

Car parks in Salthill closing today

dmc17

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121537447#Comment_121537447

Better get the car in quick before they close!

Storm 10

Galway gone orange now I can see this changing as the hours go on

acalmenvoy

Any ideas if the 8 o'clock ferries from Dublin will be cancelled in the morning?

No updates to the contrary on the Ferry websites.

Oscar Bravo

Mace head should get some strong gusts

Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very strong westerly winds, coupled with spring tides. Coastal flooding is likely.

Valid: 18:00 Wednesday 27/12/2023 to 06:00 Thursday 28/12/2023

Issued: 15:45 Tuesday 26/12/2023

Storm 10

Well done to MT and the posters on here who mentioned a storm around the 27th last week, I saw no mention on ME last night about a storm I take all my weather from here now way more accurate.

Dazler97

Just found this now thankfully I did, a week ago was showing this on models but no mention on met eirrean , looking rather rainy than windy here in Ireland tommy but hopefully no tornadoes come with this storm fingers crossed

Rebelbrowser

I see the orange on met.ie is for Kerry "and west Cork". Is this the first time they have split a county for a warning?

Glad to see this sensible step being taken. Mind you as the screenshot shows they've included all Cork in the map, someone understandably didn't fancy working out where west Cork starts and ends! Bad enough to be working Stephen's day without having to make tricky calls like that....

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121537937#Comment_121537937

Nope the last storm was west Galway and summer was south Leitrim for heat , they should go by area not counties

Storm 10

Well I am lost just watched the forecast and they had storm force winds in the North East yet no orange no mention of storm force winds in the west yet we are under an orange warning for wind wtf

gzoladz

Just a few drops in Kerry so far...

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121537937#Comment_121537937

Doubt they'd even have the functionality to do that. It's probably just a system where you enter the county name and colour and the map updates as such.

spookwoman

I noticed tonight that Donnelly said about high winds not confined to warning area's, that they can happen in some isolated area's. Also to just be careful and make your judgement.

Brendan offaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121537994#Comment_121537994

lashing in west kerry the last 2 hours.

gzoladz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121538066#Comment_121538066

I am near Killarney....not much here

dsmythy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121537673#Comment_121537673

I'm sure if everything said at Met Eireann appeared on a forum you'd see lots of thoughts about possible weather a week away.

M.T. Cranium

Latest guidance is upgrading storm potential for Sat 30th into early 31st. That could turn out to be more significant for Ireland than Gerrit.

SleetAndSnow

Lashing in cork city since around 6pm as well, with lighter rain from around 5

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121538407#Comment_121538407

Yes met eirrean pressure charts picking up on this as well I've just noticed

Robwindstorm

Well done yet again Meteorite for keeping an eye on things while preparing the Christmas Dinner. These nasty little ripples will kink the isobars giving sudden squally conditions almost anywhere. Not nice for travelling

Meteorite58

GFS showing very strong winds overnight into early morning gusting to 80/90 km/h from the South and becoming very windy up along the Eastern side of the country for a time early morning. A break from the strong winds until the afternoon in the SW and later strong winds spreading over the Southern half of the country and perhaps much of Leinster , very strong along coastal areas getting up to 110km/h or so and gusting up to 90km/h overland, easing for a time later Weds night/ early Thurs morning in the E but more strong winds gusting 80/90km/h set to cross the country from the W in the early hours then remaining quite windy on Thurs gusting up around 80km/h on coasts and gusting up around 70km/h overland. To note there will be convective squally showers so some localized areas could get very strong downdraughts .

Meteorite58

AROME / ARPEGE showing winds gusting up around 100km/h crossing the country tomorrow night and very strong in Kerry/ Clare/ Galway up to 110 or 120km/h along exposed coasts, very strong mean winds around the coasts too and very squally convective showers crossing the country, could see some squall line like features/ straight line winds.

M.T. Cranium

Note also while it is fairly mild this morning, much colder air of a "maritime polar" type is going to replace the mild southwesterlies so don't be fooled by the continuing southwest wind direction, the freezing levels will be low and showers will easily develop hail and thunder, and possibly disruptive snowfalls on hills in Donegal and west Ulster. (more of an issue by late tomorrow and Friday, possibly also with Saturday's storm).

The Saturday (afternoon/evening) storm continues to look powerful and moves through north-central counties, so would say southern half of country could see strong to even damaging wind gusts, and northern half wintry precip mixtures. Confidence moderate on storm development as it will break off a developing storm near New England states in next 24-36h.

I imagine this thread can be repurposed for Saturday once Gerrit and post-Gerrit are done doing their things. This next one will probably also get a name.

Full moon has just occurred (at around 01z) and tidal ranges are very high owing to the peak in declination cycle (at southern transit, moon is presently appearing 5 deg above where the 21st of June sun would appear). I can see the full moon through thin clouds here and it is almost overhead. This will mean waves crashing over seawalls in exposed coastal locations. Tidal ranges only come down slowly due to this declination peak and so even by 30th will still be an issue with next storm also.

giveitholly

33mn so far from this event in tipp with flooding in fields and local river bursting it's banks

Hooter23

It looks like alot more than just scattered squally showers coming in from the west now..

Oscar Bravo

Torrential rain here just outside Castlebar. Satellite signal gone etc. No wind though with nearby Knock reporting just 9 knots

Oscar Bravo

Status Orange - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Galway

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Strong to gale force westerly winds, coupled with spring tides. Coastal flooding is likely.

Valid: 15:00 Wednesday 27/12/2023 to 00:00 Thursday 28/12/2023

Issued: 10:45 Wednesday 27/12/2023

Storm 10

Biblical rain in Galway City floods on roads it was like a wall of water coming off my garden shed

beggars_bush

Lovely morning in midlands

Met eireann got that forecast completely wrong

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121540130#Comment_121540130

Wrong for where ?

beggars_bush

For the midlands! They were predicting biblical rain this morning

Oscar Bravo

11am TAF's valid until tomorrow morning . These of course can be amended. Rainfall looking like causing the most disruption with Gerrit

Knock Max Gust 40 knots between 8am - Midday tomorrow

Shannon Max Gust 45 knots between 8pm -1am

Cork Max gust of 50 knots between 3pm-1am

Dublin Max gust 45 knots between 9pm-2am

Oscar Bravo

An idea of where the strongest of the winds will be later

Meteorite58

For those with an interest worth having a look at detailed forecast for the risk of severe gusts and Tornadoes.

https://www.estofex.org/

spookwoman

That line of heavy rain has just hit Waterford City. Seeing potential gusts of 107 in the city. Moved house and it's up on a hill with the SE to the S pretty exposed. Will be interesting to see what a storm is like up here

Meteorite58

Sun peaking in and out of the cloud now here near Tralee, can see a line of convection out West. Sferics showing up well off the SW, will see if we get some closer or moving onshore.

38mm in the manual gauge overnight , some very heavy downpours around 09.00 this morning. The land pooling water around my house and in the garden.

cot-mad

Must be the calm between the storms here in Cork city. For the moment it’s bright, sunny and calm!

adocholiday

Absolutely unreal rain around Longford/Mullingar from 11 onwards. Quite a bit more than 'squally showers'

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121540413#Comment_121540413

Thankfully. Since 6pm last night there was some amount of rain fall in cork city.

SEPT 23 1989

Heavy rain hitting Dublin now

spookwoman

B*llox! Got a leak in the roof.

Oscar Bravo

A walk along the Mayo coast looking out into the Atlantic. Weather has cleared to showers with some high tops out to sea