⚠️ Very unsettled spell of weather associated with Storm Gerrit Weds 27 /Thurs 28 Dec 2023
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26-12-2023 12:44am#1
GFS 128Z very much an upgrade with very strong winds early Weds Morning, and again early Weds evening and later in the night into early Thursday from a very complex area of LP's riding along a very fast Jet with fast forming waves producing quick moving sharp systems packing a punch into Ireland. Expect changes to track and strengths over the coming runs, was looking at comments online about how there may not be a lot of observations being carried out atm due to the holidays with less balloons being launched etc. so this could sneak up on us so, was thinking no harm to give it its own thread to watch for Storm potential, grand if doesn't reach storm status, will still be a rough couple of days from heavy rainfall and strong winds and very high tides.
ECM something similar
Again I stress it might not reach storm status but worth keeping an eye and will be an interest to see what MT and others have to say.
Met Eireann
Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Waterford, Galway, Wexford
Met Éireann Weather Warning
Thundery and blustery rain, leading to localised flooding.
Valid: 20:00 Tuesday 26/12/2023 to 06:00 Wednesday 27/12/2023
Issued: 18:59 Monday 25/12/2023
Can edit the thread title as a clearer picture unfolds.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on24
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Met Office named the storm, looks like they will have more impacts there especially West Scotland and W midlands and Wales. Early Thurs morning might be the strongest winds overland in Ireland, will need to keep an eye on it. So far not major winds but combined with heavy rain and high tides gives it more of an impact.
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Status Orange - Rainfall warning for Kerry, West Cork
- Met Éireann Weather Warning
- Very heavy rain overnight (Tuesday), followed by intense heavy showers tomorrow (Wednesday). Localised flooding is possible.
- Valid: 20:00 Tuesday 26/12/2023 to 00:00 Thursday 28/12/2023
- Issued: 11:50 Tuesday 26/12/2023
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After the heavy frontal rain goes through cold air being dragged in behind creating the environment for a lot of convection giving hail and thunderstorms along the W and SW and S and later in the Irish sea. Some might move a bit inland. Wintry showers also and might be seeing a dusting of white on mountains caps by Thurs morning more so in Northern counties. Feeling much colder than of late. Could get some squally heavy showers , intense as Met Eireann puts it and with all the vorticity and shear available funnels or tornadoes are a low possibility.
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I see the orange on met.ie is for Kerry "and west Cork". Is this the first time they have split a county for a warning?
Glad to see this sensible step being taken. Mind you as the screenshot shows they've included all Cork in the map, someone understandably didn't fancy working out where west Cork starts and ends! Bad enough to be working Stephen's day without having to make tricky calls like that....
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GFS showing very strong winds overnight into early morning gusting to 80/90 km/h from the South and becoming very windy up along the Eastern side of the country for a time early morning. A break from the strong winds until the afternoon in the SW and later strong winds spreading over the Southern half of the country and perhaps much of Leinster , very strong along coastal areas getting up to 110km/h or so and gusting up to 90km/h overland, easing for a time later Weds night/ early Thurs morning in the E but more strong winds gusting 80/90km/h set to cross the country from the W in the early hours then remaining quite windy on Thurs gusting up around 80km/h on coasts and gusting up around 70km/h overland. To note there will be convective squally showers so some localized areas could get very strong downdraughts .
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AROME / ARPEGE showing winds gusting up around 100km/h crossing the country tomorrow night and very strong in Kerry/ Clare/ Galway up to 110 or 120km/h along exposed coasts, very strong mean winds around the coasts too and very squally convective showers crossing the country, could see some squall line like features/ straight line winds.
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