SME / Local Business thread - just watching trends .. ( what will 2024 bring )

aidanodr

I am in a small biz myself and probably would notice this more than many, canary in coalmine type thing. I have been getting feedback from SME / local biz clients and the like that discretionary funds are thin on the ground both for themselves and for clients. Cost of living and prices constantly rising all around has taken a toll.

I am definitely noticing a trend in the restaurant / cafe sector eg

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/kerry/south-kerry-news/kerry-cafe-owner-forced-to-close-her-doors-im-devastated-but-i-am-done-fighting/a1098155798.html

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/dublin/dublin-news/nowadays-its-not-enough-to-just-be-a-cafe-says-owner-as-she-closes-premises-for-last-time/a2136764414.html

Recently Cork .. Rebel Chilli closed after 14 years

https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/local-news/sad-news-rebel-chilli-closes-28276843

Yes, one could be glib and say thats business, they open and close all the time and stuff like that. Yes, but we tend not to hear much about this - the prverbial if a tree falls in the forest does anybody hear.

I will tell you this .. amongst fellow small biz owners there is a definite feeling of uncertainty & trepidation ahead in 2024. Especially outside Dublin and large cities

I think we have two distinct economies -

FIRST - The FDI/Multinational ( GDP ) economy that generally is going gang busters but IS also having a correction of sorts esp in IT eg:

https://www.redfm.ie/news/over-360-redundancies-proposed-at-vmware-in-ballincollig-1623461

SECOND - The SME / local biz ( GNI ) economy which is at best ... FLAT

aidanodr

Central bank today

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/1219/1422715-central-bank-predicts-economy-will-shrink-this-year/

mvt

It has to be tough going for a lot of businesses as there has to be less cash flowing through the economy due to all the inflationary pressures over the last two years & this can only drive the whole economy in one direction at some point.

Interesting idea for a thread, hope the OP's business holds up.

On a somewhat related point I frequent on Francis St here in Dublin a cafe selling basically coffee & sandwiches which opened less than six months ago, a well run & popular spot.

The next door premises has now in the last couple of days also opened as a similar operation- literally side by side .

How the two businesses do will be an interesting barometer of the economy.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058327608/sme-local-business-thread-just-watching-trends-what-will-2024-bring

The examples you pick are in the food/ cafe sector - this is always somewhat volatile and an additional factor now is the rise of WFH. If you were to be cynical, some in this area seem to get whatever grants are going to open up, take out a good bit of credit with suppliers and then go poof. So not sure if they are a good barometer??

I operate more in the domestic recreation/ leisure/ tourism sector. Yes I noticed declining sales during 2023 like a slow puncture, I think several contributory factors - less discretionary income, that many domestic customers left the country last summer and didn't holiday at home, a decline in tourism along the west coast due to difficulties in accommodation - too many places taken over by the state for refugees and asylum seekers.

Other small businesses though would be flying - anyone involved in retrofitting, building trades etc. Loads of work there, name your price.

As for 2024, I'd expect more of the same as 2023. I don't think the government really cares a whit about Irish small business to be honest. They talk the talk but don't walk the walk. So best to remember that and that no-one owes you a living.

aidanodr

As for 2024, I'd expect more of the same as 2023. I don't think the government really cares a whit about Irish small business to be honest. They talk the talk but don't walk the walk. So best to remember that and that no-one owes you a living.

@Furze99 Yip .. take your point re the cafe sector but I will say over the years it generally has been stable enough, Im just hearing more closures now than before.

Indeed you are correct about the gov not caring a whit for small biz, we are more an annoyance I think. The FDI gets them the big money drug hit so why bother with the small fry.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2023/12/18/five-companies-account-for-43-of-irelands-goods-exports-in-2022/

Everytime I hear a gov minster state small local biz is the back bone of the Irish Economy I choke.

And yip, I realise no one owes you a living ..

aidanodr

As you said @Furze99 - From last nights TonightVMTV .. Rebecca Feely - owner of the popular Dublin café Kale and Coco that closed last week – articulated exactly what small restaurant and café owners across up and down the country are feeling at the moment: they have not been offered enough support by the Government

Im sure majority of SMEs, Local businesses across the country regardless of what type of biz they are in feel similar

https://twitter.com/RAI_ie/status/1737503200490496223

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121518849#Comment_121518849

The food sector got a fair level of supports during Covid, no? But I agree generally, there is little practical interest in small businesses in Ireland. Mostly it amounts to how much tax can be squeezed from them.

On other hand, anyone involved in construction or trades is getting great support due to government schemes like retrofitting, vacant and derelict house schemes. Never mind building estates and apartments etc. Lad near here is minting it, too much work.

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519709#Comment_121519709

@Furze99 Related me thinks ..

https://www.thejournal.ie/taoiseach-mary-lou-mcdonald-house-prices-dublin-6255715-Dec2023/

"Taoiseach: Banks would 'think twice' about new mortgages if Dublin house prices lowered to €300k"

Im really not sure whats going on. All I can think of is the gov are driving the Irish economy in the direction of a high cost high wage Scandinavian type economy? And anyone or any biz who cannot keep up, well pretty much screw them, let them collapse. And this would answer the no support from gov .. deliberate policy to burn off the sme / local biz sector?

I agree I am quoting the cafe sector as an example while you are quoting building trade on the other end. The rest I would think at this stage are in the main hanging in there.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519917#Comment_121519917

I dunno, I just concentrate on making good product that meets the needs of customers.

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519928#Comment_121519928

@Furze99 good on you, 100% .. long may it last

Im just trying to figure out whats happening. Thinking out loud ..

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519917#Comment_121519917

Ireland is the 3rd highest minimum wage in Europe based on the below link.

The comment made by Sinn Fein yesterday was totally stupid and if anything will cause more issues in the economy. As usual Sinn Fein have nothing behind throwing out a number like that and again show they are a danger to the Irish economy. Of course it will be lapped up by the few who think they are owed a living and a free house but the rest of the people out working/have companies etc it's a screw you attitude.

https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/02/08/minimum-wages-have-declined-because-of-soaring-inflation-this-is-how-things-stand-across-e#:~:text=In%20July%202022%2C%20the%20monthly,and%20France%20(%E2%82%AC1%2C646).

aidanodr

The Tung Sing ( Chinese ) Restaurant on patrick street, Cork City is closing after SIXTY YEARS OF Business in the city. This is sad news. Here is the message they added to there FaceBook page. Seems constant increasing costs and operating expenses is the reason for this closure

https://www.facebook.com/tungsingchinese/

"After 60 wonderful years trading and operating on Patrick street and serving the all the people of Cork with their favourite dishes, it is with great sadness and regret that we must make this post.

Due to the constantly increasing cost and operating expenses that we have incurred we are heartbroken to inform people that the Tung Sing on Patrick Street will close its doors for the last time tomorrow evening, Saturday 6th January.

We wish to express our heartfelt thanks and appreciation to all of our loyal customers and patrons who have supported us constantly during our time here and will forever cherish all the wonderful memories which all of you have created in the restaurant.

thank you to all our customers from all the staff and management

The Tung Sing, A Cork Tradition!"

Wanderer78

its gonna be an extremely difficult year for sme's, which means many jobs to, theres far more state supports in place for larger corporate's, while sme's experience the full exposure of global markets.....

RobbieV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576099#Comment_121576099

There is always plenty of money in the pot for public sector pay rises

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576127#Comment_121576127

...maybe they should increase pay then, especially for lower waged public workers, health care workers etc....

RobbieV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576136#Comment_121576136

There is no one group who benifit. Pay rises are given to everyone. We will all see increases and deservedly so. I think the PS only received 3 increases last year and year before that.

Private sector a different story if at an SME

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576156#Comment_121576156

theres clearly major pay disparities across public sector pay, older workers are also more then likely in a far more secure situation in regards critical needs such as housing, compared to younger workers, so its not all the same. those increases for younger workers have more than likely gone into providing those housing needs, so it only truly benefits those that gain from so, which is actually only a very small section of society, and not the greater economy....

...so its actually not really like for like....

...but yea, sme's, both employees and employers generally end up in extremely precarious situations, as explained, and the worry thing with that is, most people are employed by sme's! so......

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576204#Comment_121576204

A chinese restaurant failing is hardly the sign of demise of the SME market in Ireland

The requirements of the Irish people are changing, not so long ago a Chinese was an extravagant meal. Now most towns and even villages will have a selection of options from all over the World. Especially in a major city in Cork. Now people want Thai/Malaysian/Lebonese/etc etc. Chinese for anyone I know is not a food which you go to a restaurant anymore, which looking at the photo would seem to suggest the place is. It's a take away

aidanodr

@Wanderer78

"...but yea, sme's, both employees and employers generally end up in extremely precarious situations, as explained, and the worry thing with that is, most people are employed by sme's! so......"

Yip and i am an SME, one man small op. Finding things very scarey now.

I am really pee'd of with the lip service gov ministers etc constantly play with the line Ah yes the small local biz is the backbone of the Irish Economy while basically doing fck all else bar these words. We have 2 economies - The Local Biz / SME economy and then the FDI economy. The former is now under real pressure and if there will be unemployment on the way its from here this will happen

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576233#Comment_121576233

The Tung Sing restaurant was an institution on the main street in Cork City for 60 years. They stated there closure was due to constant increasing costs and operating expenses NOT because people were not attending. This was a very very popular restaurant but you do reach a point that no matter how many turn up, the costs of service and food provision do not balance the books. As you hike prices to cover, people stop attending at some point. Add to this many peoples disposable income has been decimated in recent times so less going out and so on.

If you live in an alt world with loads of cash and all that then fair enough, but that not the case for majority of people

RobbieV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576244#Comment_121576244

I think they mean backbone as in they employ the majority of people. If your business is just yourself that's different

enricoh

I've a small business, not in hospitality, ticking away grand thankfully. Have really noticed the last few months suppliers tightening up credit, even crowds I'm dealing with 10 or 20 years

Know a few lads in haulage/ logistics, they are busy trying to get work in at the mo, a year ago they were busy trying to get extra staff to cope with the work.

That said if u were looking for solar panels , a mechanic, plumber etc join the queue!

aidanodr

Pigalles Barrack street Cork city also announced closure yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/PigalleKitchen

"After (almost) 5 years in the biz, we are absolutely heartbroken to be announcing the official closure of Pigalle. We are so grateful to have had the chance to do what we love for so long, and we are extremely appreciative for the incredible support we've had since we opened in 2019. To all of the staff past and present, thank you for being absolutely amazing, you will all be so fondly remembered. Goodbye for now"

https://www.corkbeo.ie/culture/food-drink/much-loved-cork-city-gastropub-28394074

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576300#Comment_121576300

Delighted for you @enricoh .. long may it last. I am also ticking away. However, I do really notice a big tightening from biz clients now, less disposable from them and less disposable from there customers to them also. Lets say 2024 for SME land will be - interesting

aidanodr

More re the Tung Sing. They also closed there Ballincollig restaurant a few months ago. However they still maintain one in Blarney and also opened a stall at the Marina Market before Christmas. Id say the city centre location was just too expensive to run

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576255#Comment_121576255

If it was so popular with people still showing up then why is it closing?

The post didn't make sense because in one part you claim it is popular in the next you say people have stopped attending.

I am not living in an alt World, just giving a small insight into what the current trend is in regards to cuisine. Restaurants are finding it harder to attract people and the days of seeing a chinese as an exotic meal out in Ireland are long gone.

Like the local chinese restaurant in our area pushed up their home delivery service but also introduced a Thai and Malaysian menu to attract new customers.

herbalplants

I was quite shocked the month of December as I attended couple of meals with friends and the said restaurants were empty. This was a Saturday evening near Christmas and hardly anyone in the restaurant. This definitely a sign of something greater. I know I commented on another thread and people claimed Dublin was jammed full. I am in Dublin too.

I think people cannot afford the extra expense full stop. No point @Clo-Clo trying to gaslight us with your silly comment.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121576756#Comment_121576756

Gas light 🤣🤣🤣

In terms of the post, you admit people told you that Dublin was busy but you don’t agree with that, so you are right and they are wrong?

Gaslighting is a form of psychological manipulation in which the abuser attempts to sow self-doubt and confusion in their victim's mind. 

pjohnson

The future is bright for phone repair shops and vape shops. Seem to be snapping up every available vacant store.

aidanodr

Well known Cork Business going 86 years, closing .. not enough customers to survive.

The owner of one of Cork’s most famous barber shops has confirmed the business is up for sale.

Mick Moriarty, whose father established the Baldy Barber in Cork’s city centre more than 86 years ago, said he is selling it because it no longer has enough customers to survive.

While the pandemic played a role, so too did the operation of so-called “black market” hairdressers that emerged during the pandemic, Mr Moriarty said.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-41303326.html

aidanodr

I have to say, having recently walked around cork city center there is quiet alot of retail dereliction.

https://twitter.com/VirginMediaNews/status/1744841802094465326

herbalplants

In Dublin, every second day I see more retail units out for rent or unoccupied.

aidanodr

This LOCALLY in Cork would be a big one. Very popular over the years - NASH 19 restaurant / Cafe closing with immediate effect

"Soaring business costs have forced one of Cork’s best-known restaurateurs to close her business after more than three decades of serving the city.

Nash 19, which was founded by Claire Nash on the city’s Prince’s Street in 1992, has ceased trading with immediate effect, with the loss of 20 jobs."

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-41307469.html

aidanodr

Another big Restaurant outfit closing in CORK. Thats the 4th in a week.

I wonder how much of this has to do with the VAT and TAX warehousing that has to be paid up by May? And then after a while do a pheonix in a smaller setup?

https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/local-news/heartbreak-business-loves-closes-28442213

For Forks Sake

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121606220#Comment_121606220

"Very Popular" is doing some heavy lifting there.

It takes serious effort/incompetence to have a rating that low on TripAdvisor over such prolonged period of time.

There are chippers in Cork with higher TA ratings

aidanodr

So @For Forks Sake .. all these closures of what would have been big enough restaurants in Cork City ( Tung Sing, Nash 19 etc ), some of which have been open since the 60s and the 90s are all just down to the punter suddenly getting more selective about where they eat?

I reckon its a bit more than that .. a mixture of things inc the higher input costs, people eating at home using likes of lets eat services, perhaps high rent/rates in the city centre + what I said re DEBT in the guise of this VAT and TAX warehousing due by May.

Also can we really trust ratings sites these days? Especially now with use of AI tools and the like? I used to trust them, but not anymore tbh.