FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

WolfeEire

ECMWF Ens pressure mean is pretty darn good

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567802#Comment_121567802

-8C @ 850hPa flirting just off the northeast coast of Scotland at 300 hours away on an ensemble mean is not something I can recall seeing in my decade of observing model charts. Others with longer experience in the field may differ such as yourself.

emo72

Is there a thread for plebs like me who look at the fancy charts like they're looking into the void? Or can someone kindly explain like I'm a 5 yo? I'm guessing 0 or below from Monday? But no mention of snow. What gives lads?

Gonzo

The NAO/AO forecast has changed a bit since I looked at it yesterday. Yesterday or the day before it was showing things becoming more neutral and possibly positive by mid January but now it's back into firmly negative and staying negative which tells us that blocking is probably going to be dominant over the coming weeks.

I can't even remember ever seeing a properly negative AO/NAO signal in the heart of winter before.

WolfeEire

ECM 850s for the latter part of the run overwhelmingly favouring very cold conditions

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567424#Comment_121567424

That is a fair point, but there is cross model agreement about the direction of travel and its well supported by ensembles across the suites. I haven't seen the UKMO this steadfast either since the 2010 cold spell. I am not saying we will get a repeat of that, that was a truly exceptional event, but confidence is growing that we could get a decent cold spell in the heart of winter. We can't of course rule out a sudden flip in the ensembles in the days ahead to a milder or less cold outlook, but it's looking less likely that will happen. We are definitely going to get some colder and drier weather at a minimum from the weekend onwards. I am looking forward to seeing some nice pictures of frosted landscape rather than puddles over the next week.

WolfeEire

Gfs upgrades cold potential for this weekend. Slightest shifts in the orientation of that high are producing significantly different outcomes

piplip87

Any if the experts wanna tell me how it's looking for Málaga from the 12th - 15th. Can't believe I may miss some of a decent cold spell here while I'm away

Slashermcguirk

-43.6 degrees recorded in Sweden today, could you imagine! I have experienced regularly -10 to -20 while in Scandinavia and parts of the US. I can't even imagine what -43 feels like

nacho libre

An exceptional chart. The hammer is waiting to come down on us. I never thought getting a hammer blow could be pleasurable, this maybe the exception!

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568484#Comment_121568484

Atari controller polar vortex giving us winter 1980s style ?

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568515#Comment_121568515

Yes Mr Wolfe, certainly a beauty.

I have the defibrillator at had for the rollercoaster to Narnia to come...

80's joystick, hammer 🔨 and many other things..come to mind!

Most importantly cold 🥶

PS. This will be an unreal kick in the teeth if we only manage a few watery frosts from these synoptics.

munsterlegend

The 00z runs are usually the ones where the roller coaster goes downhill. We'll see what they have in store.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568614#Comment_121568614

I’ve noticed that too. Hate the 00zs, the dread in the morning when I wake up!

bazlers

Im very optimistic here but there is actually great potential for a Scandinavian High to develope and pull in that entrenched cold that is further deepening there. Temps in some parts of Sweden down in the -40s.

All hypothetical but certainly the latest guidance would encourage that scenario.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568664#Comment_121568664

A lot of charts are showing the coldest air over Ireland early next week...A lot to keep an eye on!

torres9kop

I think it will all go tits up as usual. Let down too many times in the past. Hope I’m wrong 😑

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568678#Comment_121568678

Cant blame you thinking that way......but glass half full for 24! ( until it **** itself and we burn down the observatory) ☺️

pauldry

18 days since a fully dry day and 31 out of the past 34 have had rain. So a high pressure will do me.

Eibhir

Thinking back to the 1987 January BFTE, I've one funny childhood memory. As kids were off school RTE put on a lot of their Christmas 1986 kids' TV schedule!!

It was a bit weird and confusing, heavy snowfall, Christmas programmes but mid January.

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568678#Comment_121568678

Well if your hopes are low you can't get too disappointed!

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568515#Comment_121568515

Ya bet me too it hahaha

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567930#Comment_121567930

I strongly suggest you give 10 minutes to reading the stickied thread at https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2057947753/parameters-required-for-guaranteed-snow-in-ireland#latest

You will understand all of this a lot better if you do. No mention of snow as there is no actual precipitation / weather front around, but if you read that thread you will understand what lake effect snow / streamers are - they are how you can still get snow in such a set up. Expect to hear a lot about streamers over the next week.....

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568713#Comment_121568713

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568713#Comment_121568713

Remember 1987 well. Snow started on the Sunday evening and school supposed to be back on the Monday.

WolfeEire

The UKMO, GEM and GEM 00z op runs are each a tad colder than last evening's output in respect of Saturday through Wednesday. The weekend is a touch further west once again. Certainly no downgrade on cold and settled on the ops for the next 7 days.

WolfeEire

Gem ends with the Russian fridge door being left open

TheMilkyPirate

If you like cold and snow you're gonna like the overnight runs

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568962#Comment_121568962

Yea looking pretty good. Thought ECM is quiet hifalutin getting there.

Certainly wont be buying any huskies or sleigh yet : )

King of Spades

Charts look great but MT Cranium not giving any hint of significant cold or snow potentially on the way in his outlook. Maybe it’s too far out but I do remember him giving stronger signals this far out from previous cold spells.

Reckless Abandonment

All the models showing the same general pattern. The pv is going to be under pressure one way or another , and its happening in January.. Looks like an ideal set up. Cold for a week or more, the ground can dry and cool down before the fun starts.