Storm Debi : Mon 13th Nov 2023

M.T. Cranium

I would imagine the upgrade from orange to red in Dublin area is due to realization that with a robust orange level windstorm possible, you are going to get essentially the same outcome in terms of trees falling on roadways and public walkways anyway, so best to err on side of caution and issue a red alert with its different consequences for planning. I don't think the guidance has changed much. Also the guidance is still scattered over a fairly large range of outcomes, oddly the ICON is less extreme than most, which is opposite to its usual tendency.

GFS 18z seemed a touch faster and would suggest peak winds could arrive in Dublin as early as 0600 to 0700 which would mean maximum potential for disruption to morning commutes. With GFS about in the middle of pack of intensity guidance, I think we can begin to assume a storm will in fact materialize as that pattern of guidance spread often means trust in GFS can be justified (always go with a model blend as opposed to riding one model).

Strange to be in a pre-storm routine with no data of consequence to note, it demonstrates the (predicted) sudden explosive development aspect which will begin after midnight off south Clare coast (Kilkee). Forecast challenge is rather similar to facing a tornado outbreak and trying to assess most likely paths of supercells. Wind damage pattern may be a bit wider than tornadic wind streaks but it may also resemble that model of damage too, very large variations are quite possible over small distances, meaning if you did plan to be mobile in the early morning I would recommend caution as your local conditions might not provide much warning of what lies around the bend(s) in the road.

Donegal Ken

Northwest should be under at least a orange warning for rainfall Donegal, Sligo and Leitrim. Going to be a serious amount of rain there tomorrow morning in a short time frame which will lead to flooding

notwhoyouthink

Yeah, judging by that model, another non-event. Hopefully ME will follow suit.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360585#Comment_121360585

ME don't base their forecasts off one model or one run for that matter

nacho libre

The 23:55 radio forecast will be very interesting now given the latest ecm run. Will they roll back on the red warning for most places now ? Will they go with the UKMO and Arome? The Arome is upgrade for me and Dazler 97.

adocholiday

So now we have a full suite of 18z runs and the only runs showing anything notable on a wide scale is the UKMO HD. AROME showing strong winds for a time in Galway/Mayo/Roscommon & Sligo, brushing red-level gusts in those areas, everywhere else widespread yellow at best other than high ground. GFS showing red for some parts of Clare and orange for a narrow band across the country. HARMONIE is yellow everywhere, ICON touching orange in some exposed locations. ARPEGE yellow for most.

The UKMO 7-day just rolled out and it's sticking to its guns but not as severe as the HD run earlier. It's UKMO against the rest and Met Eireann for now are siding with UKMO. An interesting 12 hours ahead to see how it plays out!

Meteorite58

Arome is certainly not showing it too stormy, ICON very scattered winds, strong but couldent say that stormy, HARMONIE less strong than earlier runs, not showing it as stormy, GFS has bought into the strong winds, UKMO-HD is still showing significant winds which I presume they cant discount. All down to see if the ECM comes back to what it was showing on the earlier runs.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360595#Comment_121360595

They'll surely leave it now. There not going to change warnings now other than subtle change to tone that would only be apparent to the like of us. Damage is likely before morning in the Northwest which might even sway a longer school closure across the red zone

monkeyactive

Do you think there will be flights in and out of Shannon airport this Monday am ?

18Z UKMO HD rolling out now. Still going with it's aggressive outlook.

NIMAN

Couple of things, is Donegal now headed for an upgrade? We are currently yellow only, and wasn't worried at all.

And re: one area being orange and another being red, there has to be a division between colours at some point.

Donegal Ken

The latest Met Eireann HARMONIE has very heavy rainfall in the northwest region 3am to 9am. I think we will see Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim and Mayo upgraded to a orange rainfall warning.

It has the Center of Debi over Antrim and north Down at 7am.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360621#Comment_121360621

No backing down there, Galway East looks bad

Dazler97

Storm really taking shape now , if its the same low

squonk

Downgrade the north Clare from earlier. Wind strength seems like nothing it if the ordinary now, just max about 78. Lots of rain though and I’ll see how tings go. Not far inland from lahinch so will likely be interesting nonetheless. Max earlier was 101 so glad really and will be delighted if I wake to having power in the morning.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360629#Comment_121360629

Yep, looks bad enough alright. A core of very strong winds is pushed right through the midlands towards the north east.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360595#Comment_121360595

I noticed that too ,who knows perhaps an orange warning but its moving swiftly through fairly fast ish ,who knows I'm gonna be awake till 4am or so ,I'll keep an eye out

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360613#Comment_121360613

Early am flights might be delayed. Incoming early flights may get diverted. Really depends as there is more unknowns than knowns at the moment re: wind strength and areas to be impacted.

Meteorite58

The GFS is quite strong now for a model that was showing nothing only a few runs ago when you see it in hourly frames, pushes the heaviest rain a bit further West

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360623#Comment_121360623

Anywhere North of Donegal Town should remain yellow for wind. The Ballyshannon area might get some red level gusts if the AROME model is right. If UKMO is right then might be some stronger winds between Gortahork and Creeslough

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360656#Comment_121360656

Well it doesn't need to last all that long to be impactful. Some of the best storms over the years in the North West have been brief and had little warning beforehand. Also with the waterlogged ground and some trees still in leaf, a fair few of them could come down in orange or High end orange conditions. Let's see what happens .

flazio

Either way, were Met Eireann right to alert people as they have done? Bearing in mind people's Sunday night bed times and the information they had to hand up to 9pm which would be RTE's last TV bulletin.

gameoverdude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360572#Comment_121360572

Until 08:00? Looks like it's shifting event. Just reading the thread and the time it impacts Dublin is commuting hours.

Sent a message to my lads to work from home. Might not be so bad, but I'd prefer them safe.

From met.ie in dcc red warning. Meh we have Internet...hopefully.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360674#Comment_121360674

Absolutely 💯 we shall see what happens

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360242#Comment_121360242

Off thread but if there is too much annual leave and you are the big boss man, then just reduce it to the statutory minimum.

If you believe there's too much annual leave with the statutory minimum, then you're in the wrong country. So ship out to somewhere where they listen to big swingy sh1tetalkin.

Meteorite58

Certainly cant ignore windspeed projections like these max winds from UKMO even if it can overdo it a bit.

JP Liz V1

..

Oscar Bravo

11pm TAF,s.Massive downgrade on earlier TAF,s

Shannon Max Gust 55 knots

Cork 55 knots

Knock 35 knots

Dublin 55 Knots

JCX BXC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121360718#Comment_121360718

Direction has also shifted a bit, Shannon was earlier forecasting the strongest winds at 250°-270°, now it's 280°.

Oscar Bravo

The system is producing lots of lightning, however most is currently about 60 miles North West of Belmullet