November 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

After first week ... 

IMT _ 8.3 (0.2 below normal)

MAX _ MIN _ not tracked yet

PRC _ 93% of normal

SUN _ 149% of normal

Max prec % loc'n

Valentia at 168% from 66.7 mm so far, appears to be in lead, will post more details later. Newport appears to be second.

M.T. Cranium

So as promised a more complete report on rainfall vs normal. Don't forget, it's possible for stations wit lower normal totals to do well in terms of percentage of normal, but so far the two lists are about in same order as the normally wetter western region is above its average and the normally drier eastern region is below its average. Note Dublin keeping pace despite a lower rainfall total.

What makes it a bit complicated to report on is fact that half the locations report in the Ag summary with a percentage given, but I have only the totals to date and end of month normal values for the rest. I am getting a fairly close estimate by assuming first week is 23% of month and so I take 4.35 times reported rainfall so far and compare it to station normal for end of Nov. This appears close for the locations where I already got a percentage from the ag report.

So in exact detail this is how stations are doing so far. As % of normal is the contest standard, I report them in that order but you'll see it's fairly close to the ranking for amounts also. Locations chosen for contest are shown with a double asterisk. **

1. Valentia _____168% ___ 66.7 mm **
2. Finner ______ 167% ___ 50.3 mm
3. Markree _____165% ___ 48.9 mm
4. Sherkin _____ 152% ___ 42.1 mm
5. Newport ____ 130% ___ 51.1 mm **
6. Roches Pt ___ 125% ___ 28.8 mm **
7. Shannon ____ 123% ___ 27.7 mm
8. Belmullet ____113% ___ 35.9 mm
9. Malin head ___109% ___ 34.8 mm
10. Phoenix Park _ 100% ___ 17.0 mm
11. Dublin _______ 98% ___ 17.0 mm
12. Johnstown C __ 97% ___ 26.4 mm **
13. Cork _________90% ___ 26.4 mm **
14. Ballyhaise ____ 89% ___ 20.2 mm
15. Mountdillon ___ 88% ___ 20.9 mm
16. Knock ________87% ___ 27.5 mm
17. Athenry ______ 81% ___ 22.5 mm
18. Gurteen ______ 74% ___ 16.3 mm
19. Dunsany ______72% ___ 14.0 mm
20. Mullingar _____ 69% ___ 14.9 mm
21. Claremorris ___ 65% ___ 18.9 mm
22. Moorepark ____ 62% ___ 15.2 mm **
23. Casement ____ 55% ____ 9.7 mm
24. Mace head ___150% ___ 16.8 mm
25. Oak Park _____ 45% ____ 9.2 mm **

pauldry

We may need some sort of torrential downpours in the next 7 days as the 2nd half of November looks like High Pressure will be more dominant and rainfall BELOW normal for first time in weeks.

pauldry

After 9 days

Valentia 84mm

Newport 78mm

SLIGO (currently) 90mm

M.T. Cranium

A low of -1.7 at mountdillon on 11 Nov.

Speaking of 11 Nov, a crazy statistic from OKC in U.S., setting record max and min (28 C and -8 C) on same date, Nov 11, 1911 (a famous cold front across all regions of central and eastern U.S. and Canada). It continued on down to -10 C for a record on 12 Nov also.

M.T. Cranium

14.3 on Sunday at moorepark is new max, I believe.

pauldry

45mm in Newport during Debi means after 13 days it's 139mm is well ahead of the chasing pack.

Sligo now has lost the lead from this station "only" 132mm

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT _ 8.2 C, second week average also 8.2, 0.4 above normal)

MAX _ 14.3

MIN _ -1.7

PRC _ 132% of normal, second week average 171% of normal

SUN _ 152% of normal, second week average 155% of normal

Max prec % loc'n

Will post a detailed table separately. A reminder, question is based on max percentage of normal, not necessarily max amount.

M.T. Cranium

Updated table for all locations, showing percentage of normal and total precip. As today (15 Nov) is largely dry (except for 5.3 mm so far at malin and 0.7 at finner), I have taken totals for 14 days, added on any hourly rainfalls today, realizing there could be a bit more later before day ends, and then compared totals to half the posted monthly average on the met-ie website.

** stations are contest selections

1. Newport ______172% ___148.0 mm **
2. Knock _______ 170% ___ 114.4 mm
3. Malin head ____164% ___ 89.1 mm
4. Markree ______155% ___ 99.5 mm
5. Finner _______ 153% ___ 98.0 mm
6. Claremorris ___ 148% ___ 90.3 mm
7. Mountdillon ___ 144% ___ 74.0 mm
8. Belmullet _____139% ___ 97.7 mm
9. Shannon _____ 139% ___ 65.6 mm
10. Sherkin ______ 136% ___ 81.7 mm
11. Ballyhaise ____ 134% ___ 63.8 mm
12. Roches Pt ____ 129% ___ 61.2 mm **
13. Athenry ______127% ___ 76.3 mm
14. Valentia ______127% ___108.1 mm **
15. Gurteen ______120% ___ 53.9 mm
16. Cork ________ 118% ___ 70.6 mm **
17. Mullingar _____111% ___ 49.2 mm
18. Dublin _______110% ___ 40.6 mm
19. Johnstown C __110% ___ 63.9 mm **
20. Dunsany _____105% ___ 44.2 mm
21. Oak Park _____ 93% ___ 40.2 mm **
22. Phoenix Park __ 89% ___ 34.1 mm
23. Moorepark ____ 82% ___ 43.6 mm **
24. Casement ____ 75% ___ 27.7 mm
25. Mace head ____75% ___ 56.8 mm

Of our actual contest picks, Newport is clearly doing better.

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 14.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Ranking the bonus forecasts of percentage of normal rainfall ...

Newport. Knock and Markree recently passed their Nov average precip, so outcome is guaranteed to be above 100% but will it reach our lowest forecast of 152% (from Mr Stonewall) ? Current GFS suggests possibly not, and so far NormaL is doing well).

After 18 days, looking at only locations we picked, Newport is at 107% of total NOV rainfall, Roches Point 85%, Valentia is at 81%, Cork 79%, Johnstown Castle 72% and Moore Park, Oak Park at 56%. (x 5/3 to get percentage of normal to date). Today's amounts appear to add about 1-2 per cent to Newport, and less than 1% to rest of those). Knock is currently at 108% (about 110% after today) and Markree at 102% (103%).

GFS current predictions would suggest final values of over 100% for southwest could be reached but rest of country adding very little, so it's going to be a close race for location possibly, but at present no location is indicated getting over 120% of its normal value; however, storm track near end of month could be close to south coast and if it intensifies or shifts a bit north, all south coast locations could edge up towards 150%.

FORECASTER _________ Forecast % and location

M.T. Cranium __________345% Johnstown C

Esposito _____________ 320% Cork A

Dacogawa ____________ 270% Cork A

Jpmarn ______________ 250% Johnstown C

Artane2002 ___________250% Cork A

Sunflower3 ___________245% Valentia

200motels ____________245% Valentia

sryanbruen ___________ 240% Cork A

Gonzo _______________ 232% Cork A

Cornerstonelad ________ 230% Cork A

Rameire ______________220% Moore Park

Appledrop ____________ 220% Cork A

___ Con sensus _______ 220%

DOCARCH ____________ 215% Cork A

waterways ___________ 210% Roches Pt

Tae laidir _____________ 205% Oak Park

Dasa29 ______________ 200% Valentia

Pauldry ______________ 200% Newport

Joe Public ____________ 189% Valentia

Kindred Spirit _________ 185% Valentia

MrSkinner ____________ 180% Valentia

adam240610 _________ 179% Cork A

john mac _____________170% Newport

Mr Stonewall __________152% Valentia

___ NormaL __________ 150%

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390009#Comment_121390009

It's a very odd one. November not all that wet yet an anomalous cyclonic z500 anomaly like this... it has definitely surprised me. It hasn't been settled but surprisingly not as much rain as you would think. Think those in flood affected areas very grateful it hasn't been nearly as bad as it could have been minus some unlucky ones like Newry in County Down. Certainly no 2009 situation.

Tae laidir

Yes, France seems to have received the rainfall we were expecting.

pauldry

Newport at 115percent now (up to lunchtime today) while the others are barely up to normal

It has 196mm now

Sligo Town has lost its lead now its 171mm

Markree some distance behind even though theyr running above normal too.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ... 

IMT _ 8.3 C, third week average 8.6, 1.4 above normal. GFS suggests colder at times and potential for end of Nov outcome near 7.5.

MAX _ 14.6 could be edged up tomorrow, if not, looks unlikely to be challenged

MIN _ -1.7 will have several opportunities to drop a bit and even the late evening of 30th on current guidance could provide a reading around -3 C on its way down to near -4 or -5 outside the Nov qualifying time frame.

PRC _ 119% of normal, third week average 92% of normal (guarantees at least 83% plus any further rainfall, current GFS guidance suggests 100% the outcome after only 53% production rate now to end (most of it on Sunday but potential for increases in later guidance towards end with lows lurking near south coast 28th-29th).

SUN _ 128% of normal, third week average 79% of normal. This can finish 120% if sunshine is near its low seasonal average values for last portion of Nov (2 to 2.5 hrs a day).

Max prec % loc'n (bonus) ...

Not a lot new to say here, Newport currently at 115% of its end of Nov average, and Knock at 119%, Malin and Markree also a bit over eventual averages, will post an update on this aspect after Sunday's expected rainfalls and see what latest guidance is saying for rest of Nov at that point. Based on current guidance, Newport would likely win for locations picked as there is no particular bias towards lagging south coast stations, but that could change near end of Nov. Deficit is considerable, for example, JC is currently at 78% of its average Nov rainfall and Oak Park is only at 60% (Moorepark 62%). Cork was 81% and Valentia 88%. To convert all values in discussion to % of average for 21 days, apply x10/7 but with dry conditions expected today to Saturday 25th, by then you would convert by taking 6/5 or adding one-fifth, so effectively Newport would be at around 138% of normal going into Sunday's rainfall event, Oak Park only at 72% of its normal by 25 Nov.

A reminder, question is based on max percentage of normal, not necessarily max amount.

M.T. Cranium

A new min of -2.7 at Dunsany on Saturday a.m., Esposito will be hoping it stays in place with close forecast of -2.8. Only 200motels (-1.8) and Rameire (-2.0) have seen any loss from this late development. Quite a few need a lower min to score many points and if we need to go to minimum progression then, using this value, Esposito would have a hammer. If it gets a bit colder we won't need the min pro ... the latest guidance does not look promising for night of 30 Nov - 1 Dec to turn cold enough fast enough to impact on Nov min, but anyway, I will be back in a couple of days with week four stats and updates. The eventual rainfall later this week does not appear to be enough to shift location away from Newport although it may change the order of other locations.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ... 

IMT _ 8.0 C, fourth week average 7.1, 0.2 above normal. will fall to around 7.5. (it's at 8.04 or I could be saying 7.4)

MAX _ 14.6 probably set.

MIN _ -2.7 will have two opportunities to drop a bit, overnight low and the late evening of 30th on current guidance could provide a reading around -3 C on its way down to near -4 or -5 outside the Nov qualifying time frame on Friday morning.

PRC _ 100% of normal (for 28 days, not entire month), fourth week average a dry 24% of normal (guarantees at least 93% plus any further precip, current guidance suggests next to none, so 93 to 95% likely (blend of weekly values does not always exactly calculate to reported values for months)

SUN _ 112% of normal, fourth week average 62% of normal. This will finish close to 110%.

Max prec % loc'n (bonus) ...

Probably set now. But will adjust following list after 30 Nov final reports.

Reporting % for 30 days not 28 as I don't expect these to change very much:

Location __________ Precip _____ LTA _______ % of normal

Knock ____________ 172.8 ____ 134.2 ______ 129

Newport __________ 209.5 ____ 170.4 ______ 123

Malin _____________127.4 ____ 108.6 ______ 118

Markree __________ 145.0 ____ 128.4 ______ 113

Shannon __________100.9 _____ 94.1 ______ 107

Finner ____________136.9 ____ 128.6 ______ 106

Belmullet _________ 139.0 ____ 134.0 ______ 104

Mountdillon ________106.1 ____ 102.4 ______ 104

Claremorris ________125.4 ____ 122.7 ______ 102

Valentia ___________165.0 ____ 169.3 _______97

Sherkin Is _________ 114.8 ____ 120.1 ______ 96

Athenry ___________113.5 ____ 120.3 ______ 95

Ballyhaise __________ 89.6 _____ 95.3 ______ 94

Roches Pt __________ 86.6 _____ 95.0 ______ 91

Gurteen ___________ 81.2 _____ 89.8 ______ 90

Cork _____________ 106.4 ____ 120.0 ______ 89

Dunsany ___________68.2 _____ 84.0 ______ 82

Mullingar __________ 71.2 _____ 88.1 ______ 81

Dublin ____________ 58.7 _____ 72.9 ______ 81

Johnstown C _______ 90.9 ____ 115.3 ______ 79

Moorepark _________ 71.1 ____ 105.4 ______ 68

Phoenix Park ________47.0 _____ 75.6 ______ 63

Oak Park __________ 53.3 _____ 85.9 ______ 62

Mace head _________ 79.2 ____ 150.8 ______ 53

Casement __________37.2 _____ 73.7 ______ 51

...

Will report final values on Wed for all aspects and present a preliminary report on scoring, monthly summary is not due until 4th for final confirmed scoring report.

appledrop

New Min -3.4 at Mt Dillion.

M.T. Cranium

Location scoring for bonus will be adjusted to the range of locations selected, I was expecting a wider selection and except for Newport (would score 4/5 on current list), our other choices all appear to be scoring one or zero (8th-10th were to score 1/5, Valentia is currently 10th).

Johnstown Castle picked up about 2% on 29th, as did non-selection Casement. A few PRC sites gained 1% also, placing contest PRC outcome closer to 95%. On 30 Nov a similar story, small inceases at a few eastern and nortern coastal stations. In any case exact PRC will not be an issue as boosts will be needed.

Scoring for bonus question location will probably be 5/5 for Newport, 4/5 for Valentia, 3/5 for Roches Pt and Cork, 2/5 for Johnstown Castle and 1/5 for Oak Park and Moorepark.

Scoring for % will definitely be in groups of five closest together for optimal outcomes. With 23 forecasts I had a look at the range and decided it would be fair to go as high as that system allows with the three worst (highest %) getting 1/5 and the rest evenly spaced in groups of five.

This will give two superbonus points to john mac, and one to messrs skinner and stonewall, kindred spirit, pauldry, and joe public will also receive one.

It looks like yesterday was cold enough to drop the IMT to 7.86 (7.9), a similar drop today of about 0.16 will leave it at 7.7. Will know the actual value around noon Friday.

10.8 hrs sun at our six locations on 29th will be consistent with 110% estimate. 30h on 30th will push result up to around 115%. This won't be an issue as a boost was already needed at 110% (all forecasts were below 100%).

Will be possible but not overly likely to see a reading below -3.4 by midnight. (edit, but it did get to -4 by 2200h so table will need an edit on Friday) ... -5.1 is our new min.

All of the above will allow for preliminary scoring to follow, will be able to edit in any apparent changes needed if I post this a bit later.

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary Scoring for November 2023

FORECASTER __________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ BONUS __ sb ___ TOTAL

Rameire ______________20 _ 19*_ 00 _ 01*_ 03*__ 3 1 __________ 47

Cornerstonelad ________ 21 _ 16*_ 19 _ 08*_ 07*__ 3 3 __________ 77

Tae laidir _____________ 22 _ 02*_ 02 _ 09*_ 08*__ 4 1 __________ 48

Esposito _____________ 23 _ 07*_ 00 _ 02*_ 08*__ 1 3 __________ 44

Kindred Spirit _________ 24 _ 14*_ 06 _ 14*_ 08*__ 5 4 _ 1 _______ 76

Dacogawa ____________ 25 _ 09*_ 09 _ 02*_ 06*__ 1 3 __________ 55

john mac _____________24 _ 01*_ 07 _ 14*_ 10*__ 5 5 _ 2 _______ 68

MrSkinner ____________ 24 _ 06*_ 19 _ 02*_ 09*__ 5 4 _ 1 _______ 70

Jpmarn ______________ 24 _ 12*_ 07 _ 03*_ 08*__ 1 2 __________ 57

Gonzo _______________ 24 _ 15*_ 07 _ 03*_ 06*__ 3 3 __________ 61

Artane2002 ___________24 _ 18*_ 01 _ 03*_ 06*__ 2 3 __________ 57

___ Con sensus _______ 23 _ 10*_ 07 _ 05*_ 08*__ 3 3 __________ 59

adam240610 _________ 23 _ 04*_ 07 _ 14*_ 09*__ 5 3 __________ 65

Sunflower3 ___________ 23 _ 14*_ 17 _ 10*_ 07*__ 2 4 __________ 77

Joe Public ____________ 23 _ 17*_ 10 _ 15*_ 09*__ 4 4 _ 1 _______ 83

200motels ____________23 _ 20*_ 00 _ 02*_ 04*__ 2 4 __________ 55

M.T. Cranium __________22 _ 09*_ 01 _ 00 _ 07*__ 1 2 __________ 42

waterways ____________21 _ 12*_ 11 _ 04*_ 10*__ 4 3 __________ 65

___ NormaL __________ 21 _ 02*_ 09 _ 15*_ 10*__ 5 3 __________ 65

Mr Stonewall __________20 _ 10*_ 07 _ 09*_ 06*__ 5 4 _ 1 _______ 61

DOCARCH ____________ 19 _ 04*_ 01 _ 11*_ 09*__ 3 3 __________ 50

Dasa29 ______________ 19 _ 06*_ 04 _ 08*_ 08*__ 4 4 __________ 53

Appledrop ____________ 19 _ 10*_ 11 _ 05*_ 06*__ 3 3 __________ 57

sryanbruen ___________ 19 _ 15*_ 08 _ 08*_ 06*__ 2 3 __________ 61

Pauldry ______________ 16 _ 01*_ 19 _ 05*_ 08*__ 4 5 _ 1 _______ 59

____________________________________

IMT ended on 7.6 (7.64) and scores are adjusted as of 1300h Friday 1st.

Will check exact values of PRC and SUN later, with scoring boosts, no effect on scores anyway.

MAX scoring required minimum progression, no hammer was involved (top raw score 15/20), progression was 20 down to 1 with jogs (no step down) at 15, 10, 6 and 1.

MIN scoring was upended by late change, scores generally lower. Could add 1-2 points after a longer look at end of process, but it's a hammer situation so differentials will be small. (later edit, probably won't adjust, not enough zero scores or sag below trigger scoring distribution, so we're stuck with these.

PRC also required minimum progression, also no hammer as top raw score was 10/15 (Normal at 13/15 would qualify if an actual person). Same scoring procedure as for above except jogs are at 9, 5, 3 and 2 with one score zero, to give better fit with scatter of errors, three scored 14/15 by ties at 120%.

SUN required minimum progression, fairest solution was to score from 100% rather than 115% (new estimate) or so. Our top forecast was 98%, second was 97% and I also gave that one 10.

<<< SCORING is now adjusted on 1st Dec, and will be finalized on 4 Dec

-- will post updated annual scoring on 1st or 2nd -- -- looks like Joe Public, Kindred Spirit, Cornerstonelad and sunflower3 will be making a move up scoring table, but not a lot of spread in scoring for most of us, if your NOV score is low you'll be bringing in 2nd lowest annual score instead anyway ...

=======================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max prec % loc'n

Rameire ______________8.1 _ 15.4 _ -2.0 _ 180 _ 065 __ 220% Moore Park

Cornerstonelad ________ 8.0 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 150 _ 085 __ 230% Cork A

Tae laidir _____________ 7.9 _ 17.3 _ -3.3 _ 141 _ 088 __ 205% Oak Park

Esposito _____________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -2.8 _ 170 _ 090 __ 320% Cork A

Kindred Spirit _________ 7.7 _ 16.3 _ -3.7 _ 120 _ 090 __ 185% Valentia

Dacogawa ____________ 7.6 _ 16.8 _ -4.0 _ 170 _ 082 __ 270% Cork A

john mac _____________7.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 098 __ 170% Newport

MrSkinner ____________ 7.5 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 175 _ 089 __ 180% Valentia

Jpmarn ______________ 7.5 _ 16.5 _ -3.8 _ 160 _ 090 __ 250% Johnstown C

Gonzo _______________ 7.5 _ 16.1 _ -3.8 _ 166 _ 078 __ 232% Cork A

Artane2002 ___________7.5 _ 15.7 _ -3.2 _ 160 _ 080 __ 250% Cork A

___ Con sensus _______ 7.4 _ 16.6 _ -3.8 _ 157 _ 088 __ 220% (see notes)

adam240610 _________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 091 __ 179% Cork A

Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 16.4 _ -4.8 _ 140 _ 085 __ 245% Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 7.4 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 093 __ 189% Valentia

200motels ____________7.4 _ 15.1 _ -1.8 _ 170 _ 070 __ 245% Valentia

M.T. Cranium __________7.3 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 202 _ 085 __ 345% Johnstown C

waterways ___________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.2 _ 159 _ 097 __ 210% Roches Pt

___ NormaL __________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 150% (scores 3/5 for loc'n)

Mr Stonewall __________7.1 _ 16.6 _ -3.8 _ 142 _ 078 __ 152% Valentia

DOCARCH ____________ 7.0 _ 17.2 _ -3.2 _ 138 _ 095 __ 215% Cork A

Dasa29 ______________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 150 _ 090 __ 200% Valentia

Appledrop ____________ 7.0 _ 16.7 _ -4.2 _ 157 _ 078 __ 220% Cork A

sryanbruen ___________ 7.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.9 _ 150 _ 080 __ 240% Cork A

Pauldry ______________ 6.7 _ 17.4 _ -5.0 _ 155 _ 090 __ 200% Newport

____________________________________

pauldry

Very frosty in the NW tonight. Down to -4c in some inland parts, also -5c at one station in the Midlands at 10pm

Met Eireann reports hv -4c at both Mt Dillon and Markree at 10pm so could go a bit lower yet.

M.T. Cranium

Yep, will be editing that table when I know the data point, going to be an interesting call for people in Dec thread too ... I will be posting a score advisory for late entries using posted info on 1 Dec low, but it's quite likely to go lower still, I suppose (in Dec).

(2300h _ -5 at Mountdillon)

Joe Public

Mt Dillon showing -5C

Tae laidir

Yes, confirmed at -5.1.

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121440928#Comment_121440928

That before/at midnight?

Not sure how MT works it when lowest temperature of the month falls on last day of the month!

M.T. Cranium

All scoring and comments above adjusted ... the -5.1 counts, it will be reported as monthly min in climate reports and I go by that standard. It's a bummer for about two thirds of forecasters who lost up to 17 points but a nice bonus for the other third who were at the opposite end of the boat until then.

Applying another boost (three already needed) would have little effect as a hammer is held by at least two forecasters. Even so, scores you see now could go up 1-2 after I review it more extensively (borderline qualification for a boost, not sure if it qualifies or not, and then not sure if it will make any difference to contest standings).

The main effect will be to bring in a few more previous scores into the best 9/11 portion of scoring and I suspect the net result will be that scores will be close to what they were going to be anyway, just using a different month with a slightly higher score now.

Will adjust scoring again if necessary at about noon when IMT is known. If no change needed, I will note that here. We are then pretty well set as the exact details of PRC and SUN will not have any bearing on scoring due to the boosts required anyway.

M.T. Cranium

Done with editing the scoring now, 7.64 was final value of IMT, so one point found its way to 3/4 of field, scoring is probably final given all scoring boosts in place, PRC and SUN actual values will not affect scores now ... will update annual scoring later today or early Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary Scoring for November 2023

As scoring is largely dependent on boosted scores, later variations of PRC and SUN will not affect scoring, so it is probably a final report.

FORECASTER __________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ BONUS __ sb ___ TOTAL

___ Estimates ________ 7.6 _14.6 -5.1_095_115_ Knock 130%

Joe Public ____________ 23 _ 17*_ 10 _ 15*_ 09*__ 4 4 _ 1 _______ 83

Sunflower3 ___________ 23 _ 14*_ 17 _ 10*_ 07*__ 2 4 __________ 77

Cornerstonelad ________ 21 _ 16*_ 19 _ 08*_ 07*__ 3 3 __________ 77

Kindred Spirit _________ 24 _ 14*_ 06 _ 14*_ 08*__ 5 4 _ 1 _______ 76

MrSkinner ____________ 24 _ 06*_ 19 _ 02*_ 09*__ 5 4 _ 1 _______ 70

john mac _____________24 _ 01*_ 07 _ 14*_ 10*__ 5 5 _ 2 _______ 68

adam240610 __________23 _ 04*_ 07 _ 14*_ 09*__ 5 3 __________ 65

waterways ____________21 _ 12*_ 11 _ 04*_ 10*__ 4 3 __________ 65

___ NormaL __________ 21 _ 02*_ 09 _ 15*_ 10*__ 5 3 __________ 65

Gonzo _______________ 24 _ 15*_ 07 _ 03*_ 06*__ 3 3 __________ 61

Mr Stonewall __________20 _ 10*_ 07 _ 09*_ 06*__ 5 4 _ 1 _______ 61

sryanbruen ___________ 19 _ 15*_ 08 _ 08*_ 06*__ 2 3 __________ 61

Pauldry ______________ 16 _ 01*_ 19 _ 05*_ 08*__ 4 5 _ 1 _______ 59

___ Con sensus _______ 23 _ 10*_ 07 _ 05*_ 08*__ 3 3 __________ 59

Artane2002 ___________24 _ 18*_ 01 _ 03*_ 06*__ 2 3 __________ 57

Appledrop ____________ 19 _ 10*_ 11 _ 05*_ 06*__ 3 3 __________ 57

Jpmarn ______________ 24 _ 12*_ 07 _ 03*_ 08*__ 1 2 __________ 57

Dacogawa ____________25 _ 09*_ 09 _ 02*_ 06*__ 1 3 __________ 55

200motels ____________23 _ 20*_ 00 _ 02*_ 04*__ 2 4 __________ 55

Dasa29 ______________ 19 _ 06*_ 04 _ 08*_ 08*__ 4 4 __________ 53

DOCARCH ____________ 19 _ 04*_ 01 _ 11*_ 09*__ 3 3 __________ 50

Tae laidir _____________22 _ 02*_ 02 _ 09*_ 08*__ 4 1 __________ 48

Rameire ______________20 _ 19*_ 00 _ 01*_ 03*__ 3 1 __________ 47

Esposito _____________ 23 _ 07*_ 00 _ 02*_ 08*__ 1 3 __________ 44

M.T. Cranium __________22 _ 09*_ 01 _ 00 _ 07*__ 1 2 __________ 42

____________________________________

IMT ended on 7.6 (7.64) and scores are adjusted as of 1300h Friday 1st.

Will check exact values of PRC and SUN later, with scoring boosts, no effect on scores anyway.

MAX scoring required minimum progression, no hammer was involved (top raw score 15/20), progression was 20 down to 1 with jogs (no step down) at 15, 10, 6 and 1.

MIN scoring was upended by late change, scores generally lower. Could add 1-2 points after a longer look at end of process, but it's a hammer situation so differentials will be small. (later edit, probably won't adjust, not enough zero scores or sag below trigger scoring distribution, so we're stuck with these.

PRC also required minimum progression, also no hammer as top raw score was 10/15 (Normal at 13/15 would qualify if an actual person). Same scoring procedure as for above except jogs are at 9, 5, 3 and 2 with one score zero, to give better fit with scatter of errors, three scored 14/15 by ties at 120%.

SUN required minimum progression, fairest solution was to score from 100% rather than 115% (new estimate) or so. Our top forecast was 98%, second was 97% and I also gave that one 10.

<<< SCORING is now adjusted on 1st Dec, and will be finalized on 4 Dec

Annual updates to follow ...

M.T. Cranium

== << Updated annual scoring January to November 2023 >> ==

Now rank-ordered by best 9/11 scoring rather than total scores.

* forecasters who have 10 of 11, ** 9 of 11.

Note: NOV scores preliminary and subject to later adjustments.

Dropped scores for best 9 of 11 are in italics. An equal second lowest score is also in italics for a few scores.

Forecasters at 10/11 entries, one dropped score. At 9/11, no dropped scores.

NOV 9/11 _OCT 8 of 10 //

Rank (prv) best 8/10_FORECASTER J __F __M __A __M __J __J __A __S __O __N __TOTAL _Rank NOV ((Rank OCT))

_ 01 (02) _ 643 _ Sunflower3 ____47 _69 _39 _84 _72 _55 _73 _73 _73 _67 _77 __ 729 ___ ( 1 ) _ (2)

_ 02 (01) _ 641 _ Artane2002* __ 50 _71 _78 _--- _71 _66 _68 _90 _72 _68 _57 __ 691 ___ (t5 ) _ (4)

(2.7) (3.2)_ 621 _ Con Sensus ___ 65 _74 _58 _64 _66 _68 _60 _79 _68 _77 _59 __ 738 _ 00.7 (00.7)

_ 03 (04) _ 612 _ M.T. Cranium __ 67 _70 _44 _54 _61 _59 _89 _63 _63 _86 _42 __ 698 ___ ( 2 ) _ (1)

_ 04 (03) _ 610 _ tae laidir ______38 _64 _72 _80 _68 _43 _64 _70 _78 _66 _48 __ 691 ___ (t5 ) _ (3)

_ 05 (05) _ 601 _ sryanbruen ____46 _76 _68 _55 _70 _76 _55 _48 _57 _83 _61 __ 695 ___ ( 4 ) _ (5)

_ 06 (09) _ 587 _ Kindred Spirit __58 _74 _74 _62 _54 _77 _37 _55 _53 _57 _76 __ 677 ___ ( 7 ) _ (8)

_ 07 (06) _ 584 _ adam240610 __ 61 _61 _65 _57 _62 _72 _67 _57 _56 _74 _65 __ 697 ___ ( 3 ) _ (6)

_ 08 (07) _ 573 _ Jpmarn*_____ 61 _49 _50 _51 _--- _69 _70 _75 _75 _65 _57 __ 622 ___ (16) _ (t13)

_t09 (11) _ 568 _ john mac* ____ 58 _47 _71 _72 _61 _--- _51 _71 _54 _63 _68 __ 615 ___ (t18) _ (21)

_t09 (t12) _ 568 _MrSkinner _____25 _69 _34 _53 _72 _65 _47 _69 _58 _65 _70 __ 627 ___ (t13)_ (t19)

_ 11 (17) _ 566 _ Cornerstonelad_ 49 _61 _25 _58 _56 _49 _56 _76 _68 _64 _77 __ 640 ___ (11)_ (t13)

_ 12 (10) _ 563 _ Appledrop _____53 _64 _73 _64 _33 _72 _56 _52 _60 _64 _57 __ 648 ___ (10) _ (9)

_ 13 (08) _ 562 _ DOCARCH _____77 _67 _69 _48 _51 _58 _45 _55 _57 _78 _50 __ 655 ___ ( 8 ) _(7)

_t14 (t12)_ 559 _ Gonzo ________46 _69 _52 _58 _60 _44 _84 _52 _65 _58 _61 __ 649 ___ ( 9 ) _ (10)

_t14 (15) _559 _ waterways _____ 52 _27 _41 _76 _53 _59 _68 _65 _67 _54 _65 __ 627 ___ (t13)_ (15)

_ 16 (14) _ 549 _ Rameire ______ 10 _68 _52 _53 _61 _57 _69 _59 _60 _70 _47 __ 606 ___ (21)_ (18)

(16.7)(18.1)_547 NormaL _____67 _44 _76 _77 _42 _38 _65 _60 _46 _47 _65 __ 627 ___(13.0)_(16.0)

_ 17 (16) _546 _ Dacogawa _____ 63 _58 _54 _51 _39 _79 _51 _55 _66 _65 _55 __ 636 ___ (12)_ (11)

_ 18 (23) _ 545 _ Joe Public _____46 _48 _53 _63 _42 _54 _41 _71 _85 _41 _83 __ 627 ___ (t13)_ (22)

_ 19 (19) _ 536 _ 200 motels____ 41 _74 _38 _66 _68 _50 _51 _47 _66 _59 _55 __ 615 ___ (t18)_ (17)

_t20 (18) _ 526 _ Bsal*_________ 71 _49 _42 _68 _46 _54 _62 _61 _44 _71 _ --__ 568 ___ (23) _ (12)

_t20 (21) _ 526 _ Pauldry _______ 50 _62 _66 _50 _48 _64 _56 _51 _46 _68 _59 __ 620 ___ (17) _ (16)

_ 22 (20) _ 524 _ Dasa29 _______ 61 _54 _42 _45 _63 _51 _44 _65 _66 _66 _53 __ 610 ___ (20) _(t19)

_ 23 (24) _ 513 _ Mr.stonewall ___ 45 _30 _54 _48 _48 _ 57 _61 _72 _57 _55 _61 __ 588 ___ (22) _ (23)

_ 24 (22) _ 510 _ esposito** _____54 _57 _45 _--- _--- _49 _50 _72 _66 _73 _44 __ 510 ___ (24) _ (24)

================== above can still qualify for best 10/12 =====================

_ 25 (25) _WolfeEire (4/11) _____ 76 _47 _59 _52 _--- _--- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 234

_ 26 (26) _ sdanseo (2/11) _____ --- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 59 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 86 _ ---__145

_ 27 (27)_Rebelbrowser(1/11) ___ 78__--- _---_--- _--- _--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- __ 78

_ 28 (28) _ JCX BXC (1/11) _____ --- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 65 _ --- _ --- _--- _--- _ --- __ 65

_ 29 (29) _Aah yes (1/11) ______ --- _--- _---_--- _ 60 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- __ 60

_ 30 (30) _ Danno (1/11) _______ 58 _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_--- _ --- __ 58

_ 31 (31) _ Tazio (1/11) ________ --- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_--- _ --- __51

___________________________________

___ Category scoring totals January -November ____

FORECASTER ____ IMT _MAX _MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS __ TOTAL (total before late pens)

Max Possible _____275 _220 _220 _165 _110 __110 ____1100

_ Con Sensus ____ 208 _141 _123 _ 97 _ 89 __ 80 ____ 738

Sunflower3 ______209 _131 _134 _96 _ 83 __ 76 ____ 729

M.T. Cranium _____215 _ 86 _125 _100 _ 92__ 80 ____ 698

adam240610_____ 211 _120 _119 _ 94 _ 79 __ 77 ____ 697 (701)

sryanbruen ______ 200 _128 _125 _ 97 _ 81 __ 69 ____ 695 (700)

Tae laidir_________229 _ 93 _134 _ 76 _ 84 __ 75 ____ 691

Artane2002(10/11) 194 _131 _134 _ 86 _ 78 __ 70 ____ 691 (693)

Kindred Spirit _____191 _124 _122 _ 88 _ 75 __ 77 ____ 677

DOCARCH _______ 167 _126 _107 _113 _82__ 60 ____ 655

Gonzo ___________200 _111 _ 95 _ 92 _ 79 __ 74 ____ 649 (651)

Appledrop ________206 _ 71 _122 _ 98 _ 89 __ 62 ____ 648

Cornerstonelad ____200 _134 _100 _87 _ 71 __ 65 ____ 640 (657)

Dacogawa _______ 214 _101 _100 _ 72 _ 83 __ 66 ____636

waterways _______ 181 _128 _ 77 _ 82 _ 86 __ 73 ____ 627

MrSkinner ________204 _107 _ 88 _ 86 _ 74 __ 70 ____ 627 (629)

Joe Public ________ 198 _119 _ 89 _ 98 _ 80 __ 47 ____ 627 (632) 

_ NormaL _______ 146 _114 _98 _107 _81 __ 81 ____ 627

Jpmarn __(10/11)__181 _ 93 _122 _ 88 _ 74 __ 64 ____622

Pauldry __________196 _103 _ 85 _ 99 _ 81 __ 56 ____ 620

200 motels _______ 197 _115 _ 95 _ 88 _ 78 __ 56 ____ 615 (629)

Rameire _________ 192 _121 _ 95 _ 81 _ 75 __ 72 ____ 606 (636)

Dasa29 __________183 _ 73 _103 _ 97 _ 81 __ 74 ____ 611

Bsal (10/11) _____ 171 _101 _ 71 _103 _ 68__ 64 ____ 568 (577)

john mac (10/11) __173 _105 _ 96 _ 99 _ 75 __ 69 ____ 615 (617)

Mr.stonewall ______198 _ 89 _112 _ 47 _ 72 __ 76 ____ 588 (592)

esposito _ (9/11) __ 175 _109 _ 45 _ 64 _ 67 __ 52 ____ 510 (513)

WolfeEire (4/11) ___ 61 _ 35 _ 49 _ 43 _ 24 __ 22 ____ 234

sdanseo ___(2/11) _ 35 _ 34 _ 34 _ 11 _ 17 __ 14 _____145

Rebelbrowser (1/11)_15 _ 16 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 78

JCX BXC ___ (1/11)_ 25 _ 12 _ 16 _ 00 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 65

aah yes____(1/11)__17 _ 12 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 __ 07 _____ 60 (63)

Danno ____ (1/11) _ 13 _ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 __ 08 _____ 58

Tazio _____ (1/11) _ 21 _ 00 _ 17 _ 07 _ 04 __ 02 _____ 51

___________________________________

In category scoring (Jan to Nov totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.

(ranks are given to top three forecasters, regardless of position of NormaL or Con Sensus as noted below)

IMT _ three top ranks -- no ties.

MAX three top ranks -- tie for second, no third place awarded. Con Sensus would be first.

MIN _ three top ranks -- three tied for first, no second or third places awarded.

PRC _ three top ranks -- no ties. Normal would be second.

SUN _ three top ranks -- no ties. Con Sensus would be tied second.

BONUS _ Two forecasters tied second, no third place awarded. Con Sensus tied first, and Normal would be first one point ahead.

Order in category scoring is same as determined by total scores in annual scoring summary above this table.

Not all have any late penalties, but those who do will have their contest score (after penalties) in the TOTAL column and the total before penalties (the sum of the category scores) in brackets and italic font, after their contest score.

============

Annual contest is very close and chase pack closed the gap as several leaders had rather low scores in NOV and relied on previous second worst score to feed into best 9/11. I have not looked over DEC forecasts and realize there is a huge uncertainty about trends, so it will be a wild finish to the contest.

Four seasons final report is next up (Saturday afternoon to evening probably) ...

M.T. Cranium

Four seasons contest -- Autumn update and Final Results

The contest awards ten points for top total score in each season, and seven points for second, six for third, etc, down to one point for 8th to 12th places, and anyone else who gets at least 170 points (if applicable, was not in winter as 170 was 12th and in spring 12th was 166). The following table of scoring shows the winter, spring and summer results, and adds the autumn (Sep-Oct-Nov) points, for total points in the final column.

Results dependent on any required scoring adjustments for Nov (none expected)

FORECASTER ____ Winter Pts __[]_ Spring Pts __[]_ Summer Pts __[]_ Autumn Pts __ TOTAL PTS (score)

Sunflower3 ______ 172 __ 1 _____ 195 __ 6 ______201 __ 5 _____ 217 __ 10 _____ 22 ___ 785

___ Con Sensus __ 190 __ 5.0 ___ 188 __ 3.7 _____ 207 _ 5.6 ____ 204 __5.3_____ 19.6 ___ 789

adam240610 _____208 _ 10 _____184 ___ 3 ______196 __ 4 _____195 __ 2 ______ 19 ____ 783

sryanbruen ______ 196 __ 6 _____193 ___ 5 ______179 __ 1 _____ 201 __ 5 ______ 17 ____ 769

Artane2002 ______179 __ 2 _____149* __0 ______224__10 ____ 197 __ 4 ______ 16 ____ 749*

Tae laidir ________142 __ 0 _____ 220 __10______177 __ 1 ______192 __ 1 ______ 12 ____ 731

Jpmarn _________168 __ 0 ______101*__0 ______214 __ 7 ______ 197 __ 4 ______ 11 ____ 680*

Kindred Spirit ____180 __ 4 _____ 190 __ 4 ______ 169 __ 0 ______186 __ 1 _______ 9 ____ 725

DOCARCH _______204 __ 7 _____168 __ 1 ______ 158 __ 0 ______ 185 __ 1 _______ 9 ____ 715

john mac _______ 146 __ 0 _____ 204 __ 7 ______ 121*__0 ______ 185 __ 1 _______ 8 ____ 656*

Cornerstonelad ___110*__0 ______139 __ 0 ______ 181 __ 1 ______209 __ 7 _______ 8 ____ 639*

Gonzo __________180 __ 4 ______170 __ 1 ______ 180 __ 1 ______184 __ 1 _______ 7 ____ 714

M.T. Cranium ____ 167 __ 0 ______ 159 __ 0 ______ 211 __ 6 _____ 191 __ 1 _______ 7 ____ 728

Joe Public _______155 __ 0 _______158 __ 0 ______166 __ 0 ______209 __ 7 _______ 7 ____ 688

__ NormaL ______164 __ 0 ______ 195 __6.0 ______169 __ 0 _____ 158 __ 0 ______ 6.0 ___ 686

waterways ______126 __ 0 _______170 __ 1 ______ 192 __ 3 ______186 __ 1 _______ 5 ____ 674

WolfeEire _______190 __ 5 ______ 111*__0 ______ -- -- __ -- ______-- -- __ -- _______ 5

200motels ______175 __ 1 ______ 172 __ 2 ______ 148 __ 0 ______ 180 __ 1 ________ 4 ____ 675

Appledrop ______ 170 __ 1 ______ 170 __ 1 ______ 180 __ 1 ______ 181 __1 ________ 4 ____ 701

Dacogawa ______ 175 __ 1 ______ 144 __ 0 ______ 185 __ 1 ______ 186 __ 1 _______ 3 ____ 690

esposito ________171 __ 1 _______ 45** _ 0 ______ 171 __ 1 _____ 183 __ 1 _______ 3 ____ 550**

Rameire _________78*^_ 0 ______166 __ 1 ______ 175 __ 1 ______ 177 __ 1 _______ 3 ____ 596*

Mr stonewall ____ 139 __ 0 _______150 __ 0 ______ 190 __ 2 ______ 173 __ 1 _______ 3 ____ 652

Pauldry ________ 147 __ 0 _______164 __ 0 ______ 171 __ 1 ______ 173 __ 1 _______ 2 ____ 655

MrSkinner ______ 141 __ 0 _______159 __ 0 ______ 181 __ 1 ______ 193 __ 1 _______ 2 ____ 674

Bsal ___________160 __ 0 _______156 __ 0 ______ 177 __ 1 ______ 115*__ 0 _______ 1 ____ 608 *

Dasa29 ________ 147 __ 0 _______150 __ 0 ______ 160 __ 0 ______ 185 __ 1 _______ 1 ____ 642

______________________

_ * played only two of three contests (or 11/12 for total score)

_** played one contest (only reported if contest points already scored) (or 10/12 for total score)

_*^ played Jan-Feb but large late penalty (10 points Jan, 68 Feb)

=======================

Congrats to sunflower3 taking advantage of autumn top score to win the four seasons contest for 2022-2023. Adam240610 was second and sryanbruen was third. Scores were higher in autumn, I also listed total scores next to total points, for a 12-month four seasons "year." That alternate scoring system would give a similar outcome.