November 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average mean temp for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon) for November 2023. The 1981-2010 average is 7.2.
2. Predict the MAX temp at any of the 25 official locations listed daily on the met-ie website.
3. Predict the MIN (details same as above)
4. Predict the PRC (percentage of normal rainfall at eleven locations including the five in part one above and also Malin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown, Cork and Valentia.)
5. Predict the SUN (percentage of normal at six locations around Ireland).
6. BONUS _ Predict the location to report maximum rainfall (precip) in Nov 2023, and the percentage of normal it represents (no actual value is required), at any of the 25 regular reporting sites on the met-ie website (mm) during Nov 2023. See my forecast below for an example of an answer to bonus. If your selection is max for total precip but not percentage, your lowest possible score is 3/5 for percentage portion. Scoring except for that detail will be 5/10 for location based on ten top ranked percentages (1, 2, 3-4, 5-7, 8-10), and 5/10 for percentage based on correct location's percentage (not your location's percentage unless you select correct location). Percentage scores based on rank order adjusted to range of forecasts. If everyone predicts a narrow range, scores will run 3/5 to 5/5, if a wider range, it could go as low as 1/5. No 0/5 scores will be awarded for bonus, superbonus will be available (5, 5 will get 2 sb, 5,4 or 4,5 will get one sb).

M.T. Cranium _________ 7.3 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 202 _ 085 __ 345% J-Castle

NormaL _____________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 150% and location would be random for % so NormaL will get 3/5 for location.

(explanation, for a month with 100% of normal rainfall, random distribution or regional differences would be expected to produce one location at 150% of normal. A wet month that averages 200% will likely have one location well above that, as I predict. In my case, Johnstown Castle's normal Nov precip is 115.3 mm, my contest entry of 345% implies a total of 3.45 x 115.3 or 398.9 mm at that location. If a drier inland location wins at 360% but J-Castle has high actual precip, I would get 3/5 for percentage even if otherwise it should be less. If it is worth 4/5 or 5/5 I get that instead. And your guess has the same protection if your location is also wettest).

Be sure to predict a percentage and not an amount, if it looks like an amount I will convert it to % using data listed below ... a prediction of 200% means twice amount listed below, 100% would be amount listed below. For a lot of locations, a percentage is not going to be a lot different from an amount. For mountdillon at 102.4 mm, 200% would be 204.8 mm. But if you select a wet location, a forecast of "200" will be interpreted as 200% and it would be 348.6 mm for Newport, or 338.6 for Valentia. A forecast will only be interpreted as an amount if mm is added -- feel free to do that if you don't want to work out a percentage, I can do it for table of entries.

Normal Nov precip values are given as follows on website:

New 174.3, Val 169.3, mace 150.8, Knock 134.2, Bel 134.0, Fin 128.6, mark 128.4, Cla 122.7, At 120.3, S Isl 120.1, Cork 120.0, JC 115.3,

malin 108.6, moore 105.4, mtd 102.4, bal 95.3, RocP 95.0, Shan 94.1, Gur 89.8, mul 88.1, OP 85.9, dun 84.0, PP 75.6, Cas 73.7, Dub 72.9.

(note average of our eleven locations for PRC is around 114 mm)

As a quality control check, your bonus prediction should be around 50 to 75 per cent higher than your PRC forecast. If it's lower, your bonus forecast is out of whack with your PRC forecast. It could be any value higher than PRC depending on how uneven you expect the rainfall distribution to be.

The deadline as always is 0300h on 1st of month with late penalties of one point per four hours or portion, increasing to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

200motels

200motels-------------- 7.4--- 15.1--- -1.8------ 170---- 70---- 245 Valencia

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________ 7.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.9 _ 150 _ 080 __ 240% Cork Airport

pauldry

Pauldry _________ 6.7 _ 17.4_ -5 _ 155 _ 090 __ 350% Cork Airport

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________ 7.0 _ 17.2 _ -3.2 _ 138 _ 095 _ 215% Cork Airport

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________ 7.5 _ 15.7 _ -3.2 _ 160 _ 080 __ 250% Cork Airport

dasa29

Dasa29 _________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 150 _ 090 _ 200% Valencia

John mac

john mac _____________ 7.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 98 __ 150_170% Newport

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad_____8____16.0___-5___150___85__230 %Cork Airport

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121300992#Comment_121300992

350% there would mean November would have a rainfall total of around 420mm at Cork Airport breaking its record for all-time wettest month back in Dec 2015!

sunflower3

Sunflower3_________ 7.4_ 16.4_ -4.8 _ 140 _ 085 __ 245% Valentia

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 7.7 ___ 16.3 ___ -3.7 ___ 120 ___ 90 ___ Valentia 185%

Gonzo

Gonzo _________ 7.5 _ 16.1 _ -3.8_ 166 _ 078 __ 232% Cork Airport

esposito

Esposito_________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -2.8 _ 170 _ 090 _ 320% Cork Airport

rameire

Rameire_________8.1_____15.4_____-2.0-______180_____65_____220 Moore Park

waterways

waterways _____________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.2 _ 159 _ 097 __ 210% Roc P

mrskinner

Skinner____7.5____17____-5____175____89____180%Valentia.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 7.9 _ 17.3 _ -3.3 _ 141 _ 88 __ 205% Oak Park

Joe Public

Joe Public _________ 7.4 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 93 __ 189% Valentia

adam240610

adam240610_________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 091 _ 179% Cork Airport

appledrop

Appledrop___7.0__16.7__-4.2___157__78__220%Cork Airport

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall___7.1___16.6__-3.8___142___78__152% Valentia

pauldry

On the back of what sryan has said about Cork I'd like to change my prediction to 200% Newport and not 350% Cork. Its hardly going to be as wet there 2 months in a row.

dacogawa

Dacogawa _________7.6__16.8__-4.0__170__082__ 270% Cork Airport

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  _________ 7.5 _ 16.5 _ -3.8 _ 160 _ 090__ 250% J-Castle

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for November 2023

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max prec % loc'n

Rameire ______________8.1 _ 15.4 _ -2.0 _ 180 _ 065 __ 220% Moore Park

Cornerstonelad ________ 8.0 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 150 _ 085 __ 230% Cork A

Tae laidir _____________ 7.9 _ 17.3 _ -3.3 _ 141 _ 088 __ 205% Oak Park

Esposito _____________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -2.8 _ 170 _ 090 __ 320% Cork A

Kindred Spirit _________ 7.7 _ 16.3 _ -3.7 _ 120 _ 090 __ 185% Valentia

Dacogawa ____________ 7.6 _ 16.8 _ -4.0 _ 170 _ 082 __ 270% Cork A

john mac _____________7.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 098 __ 170% Newport

MrSkinner ____________ 7.5 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 175 _ 089 __ 180% Valentia

Jpmarn ______________ 7.5 _ 16.5 _ -3.8 _ 160 _ 090 __ 250% Johnstown C

Gonzo _______________ 7.5 _ 16.1 _ -3.8 _ 166 _ 078 __ 232% Cork A

Artane2002 ___________7.5 _ 15.7 _ -3.2 _ 160 _ 080 __ 250% Cork A

___ Con sensus _______ 7.4 _ 16.6 _ -3.8 _ 157 _ 088 __ 220% (see notes)

adam240610 _________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 091 __ 179% Cork A

Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 16.4 _ -4.8 _ 140 _ 085 __ 245% Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 7.4 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 093 __ 189% Valentia

200motels ____________7.4 _ 15.1 _ -1.8 _ 170 _ 070 __ 245% Valentia

M.T. Cranium __________7.3 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 202 _ 085 __ 345% Johnstown C

waterways ___________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.2 _ 159 _ 097 __ 210% Roches Pt

___ NormaL __________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 150% (scores 3/5 for loc'n)

Mr Stonewall __________7.1 _ 16.6 _ -3.8 _ 142 _ 078 __ 152% Valentia

DOCARCH ____________ 7.0 _ 17.2 _ -3.2 _ 138 _ 095 __ 215% Cork A

Dasa29 ______________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 150 _ 090 __ 200% Valentia

Appledrop ____________ 7.0 _ 16.7 _ -4.2 _ 157 _ 078 __ 220% Cork A

sryanbruen ___________ 7.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.9 _ 150 _ 080 __ 240% Cork A

Pauldry ______________ 6.7 _ 17.4 _ -5.0 _ 155 _ 090 __ 200% Newport

____________________________________

Quite a wet Nov is expected, a bit above average for temps, and cloudy ...

just a reminder, at random any location could register max % of normal precip,

which is why NormaL will score 3/5 for location. As to our picks, Cork was chosen by

9 of 23 forecasters; Valentia got a nod from 7, Johnstown C and Newport two,

and single votes for Roches Point, Oak Park and Moore Park.

If Cork is actually max % of normal, Con Sensus scores 5/5, if Valentia, 4/5,

if JC or Newport 2/5 and if RocP, OP or MP, Con scores 1/5. Any other leader

will result in 0/5 for Con's location portion. Your score will depend on where your

pick finishes in the 25-station ranking order as explained in the intro post. You'll

score points if you've picked a top ten finisher. And you're "insured" for 3/5 if

your location has the highest PRC total (even if not a high %). If we all look like

scoring 0 or 1 or 2 for location then I will broaden the range of qualifying ranks

so that we get at least one 5/5 and at least two 4/5 scores (for location).

I will post how October did below, as a guide to what that pattern produced; not

to say Nov will be all that similar.

If any late entries come in, I will adjust table later today. Scoring adjustments to

October and close annual scoring race will also come later today.

Good luck !!

M.T. Cranium

In October, if we had the Nov bonus question, results would have been:

(01)t __ 222% ___ Cork, Roches Point

(03) Moorepark 221%

(04) Johnstown Castle 217%

(05) Phoenix Park 165%

(06) Dublin 160%

(07) Sherkin 154%

(08) Oak Park 153%

(09) Valentia 143%

(10) Athenry 140%

and Cork 307.2 mm would be a guaranteed 3/5 for location due to that being the highest total but that would be void because of its top percentage also.

pauldry

More rain in Cork Saturday but I think after that the jetstream moves a bit more North so the traditional North and West get the rain. However Normal in the North and West is quite high so would take many wet days to even get 200 per cent in these areas. Forecast looks more unsettled and mobile than all out rain like October.

pauldry

Some data for 2 days from Met Eireann for our picks

Cork Airport 6.8mm

Valentia 10.3mm

Newport 17.4mm

Johnny C 10.6mm

The rest are under 5mm so far so not included.

pauldry

4 days in

Valentia 38mm

Johnstone 24mm

Newport 22mm

Cork 21mm

pauldry

6 Days In leaving Cork and Johnstone out as they are adrift now until tonight's rain

Valentia 48mm

Newport 45mm

SLIGO not in contest 72mm