Autumn 2023 - General Discussion

Rebelbrowser

Is it my imagination or does Cork get far more Orange, and even Red, warnings than elsewhere? You'd think you'd see more in the NW but my hunch is we get them more down here than anywhere else.

zell12

Daily Mail says it is a ferocious storm with not just rain, or heavy rain, but extremely heavy rain

DOCARCH

'60mph gales that could destroy buildings'

Bloody hell!!! 😂

JanuarySnowstor

On a serious note, the 12z gfs really does ramp up the rainfall for tomorrow afternoon across the South. Easily orange if that comes off

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121246085#Comment_121246085

My grandfather when he moved up from Cork to the east 60 years ago couldn't get over how dry it was up here vs home

Meanwhile here in Arklow looking East,the scouts are massing over the Irish sea gathering information for the troops tomorrow evening

Horrendously wet forecast. After a few dry hours tomorrow early.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121246085#Comment_121246085

In terms of red warnings (since Storm Darwin in 2014), Kerry has the most with 9 red warnings followed by Clare with 8 then Cork 7.

Here's the number of warnings per county in the Republic in descending order. I did not include "low/high temperature warnings" and I did include nationwide warnings adding 1 per county. I did not include warnings twice where they were updated unless it's a different category (i.e. wind, snow, rain, thunderstorm, fog) and event entirely. For example, there were numerous orange and red warnings issued during the "Beast from the East" and Storm Emma. I included only one for each per county and in the case of the latter, that was nationwide. I only have orange warnings however since 2018 so it's not a 100% compiled analysis but gives you an idea.

Waterford has had the most of these kinds of warnings overall with 40 with Cork second. Waterford has had a lot of rain warnings especially I noticed.

JanuarySnowstor

Which of course seems to mark a change in storm systems that would usually hammer the Northwest

There's a trend to move them further South

Monkeynut

I wonder is their accent different?

Robwindstorm

In all fairness lads, I know there's always tabloid sensationalism, but the met office are concerned with this rain storm event which looks like it will have quite significant impact on us on Wednesday.

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z continues the biblical rainfall in the Southwest tomorrow evening. I've never seen such colours over Ireland before and in this case the worst seems to stay offshore. Bantry for flooding is my prediction

sdanseo

No dedicated thread for an Orange event?

Oscar Bravo

Midnight:

Mount Dillon -1

Sherkin Island 13

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248152#Comment_121248152

Ya. I was surprised by that too considering parts of Ireland will see 100mm in the coming days.

Yr.no which is pretty hopeless really at predicting rainfall totals gives Sligo 153mm in the next 7 days.

I'll go with 100mm and wel see who's closer

Also a low pressure Southeasterly/Easterly can bring huge rainfall or snow figures. Remember Storm Emma plus we had two Easterly rain events in Sligo in the Summers of 2007 and 2009 I think and they brought 78mm and 95mm in 24 hours. This could be another in some parts.

.Donegal.

Frosty tonight,

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248152#Comment_121248152

I'm suprised there hasn't been one

sparrowcar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248152#Comment_121248152

This has come up numerous times over the years but basically

Location of warnings in comparison to population density. Us East coasters don't care if it doesn't affect us :)

Kutebride

WOW

@sryanbruen are you out this morning for this sunrise. Crikey it's pretty amazing.

Commute Meath to Dublin. Dry. 7⁰ Didn't feel cold. Carried the coat for the evening commute.

A red sky in the morning..........an all that.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248366#Comment_121248366

Warning from nature that deluges are definitely on the way!

Sutton, Dublin this morning.

SleetAndSnow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248248#Comment_121248248

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058318510/storm-babet-oct-17th-2023

Storm Babet thread linked above. No east coasters allowed in this thread - a cork person 😋

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248413#Comment_121248413

Sryan, I know cloud formations can forecast/show when wild weather is coming but can you explain what signs you recognise from those lovely pictures?

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248434#Comment_121248434

Tomorrow is looking fairly wet for parts of the East, I reckon Wicklow will get an orange warning if the charts verify and Wexford and Dublin might see yellow

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248475#Comment_121248475

He could be referring to the Red Sky old saying. We always seem to paid for a decent spell of weather these days. I am going to miss the bright crisp mornings.

Sephiroth_dude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248413#Comment_121248413

Fantastic pictures!

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121246982#Comment_121246982

Many thanks for this. You are some man for the stats! And I apologise to Waterford for trying to take their crown! Not the county you'd expect to lead the table all the same, you'd have assumed it would be a west coast county.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248693#Comment_121248693

There was a red sky in Dublin last night as well though. So as usual whether it's an old saying or new age satellites, the weather is unpredictable.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248693#Comment_121248693

Yeah maybe but I remember reading about innocuous cloud formations that can warn of a storm approaching 24 hours later. I wondered whether they were in the pictures.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121248475#Comment_121248475

There's a particular kind of high/mid level cloud that is usually seen on the leading edge of fronts, for example altostratus clouds are pretty frequent ahead of weather systems. With a clear horizon, even a tiny gap, allows the sun's rays to be scattered and light all the cloud above to give a colourful sky. This is where the lore "red sky in the morning" comes from and is usually followed by rain later in the day.

Meanwhile sunset is a bit different, if you get the same scenario, sunset will be disappointing and be clouded out or hazy as the weather fronts usually come from the west so there is no clear horizon. I call this a pre-frontal sunset and they are normally no-gos for sunsets. The best time for a sunset is when you get a front clearing with a clear horizon to the west, especially cold fronts with rain. This is where "red sky at night" comes from as after the front clears, it tends to be followed by higher pressure from the west and a nicer day the following day.

In the case of last night, the sun sets in the west and the front was coming up from the south so did not block the sunset. The direction can be very important.

Of course this isn't to say that you can't get a red sky with other scenarios like during fine spells when there's no fronts. Other things that can affect include volcanic emissions and the time of year. The combination of Russian volcanic emissions and frequent westerly winds/frontal scenarios during 2019-2020 allowed skies to be consistently colourful. Summer is more hazy than winter, haze actually mutes colours contrary to popular belief.

Kutebride

Dry and cold Dublin City Centre

13⁰

Gonzo

still dry here in Meath, the dry spell is about to come to an end very soon. I've only really seen 2 wet days since September 29th with the first half of October largely dry here.