Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Storm 10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121267999#Comment_121267999

Thank you one to watch ok keep us posted its greatly appreciated

Meteorite58

Models in general moving the path of highest rainfall total bit further East with around Waterford into Killkenny now showing very wet, Cork area currently looking to get around 20-25mm perhaps

adocholiday

Deleted duplicates of what @Meteorite58 posted to remove unnecessary noise

Meteorite58

Orange warnings go into Tuesday in the SE, not like Met Eireann to issue Orange warnings this far out but the land is certainly very wet so forewarned and all that. GFS has reduced its rainfall total and possibly the outlier here, ECM has shifted the system later Tues into Weds so not producing as much rainfall as earlier shown. Possible changes to come if it continues to show less rainfall.

ECM showing an area of LP off the West now on Weds keeping the strongest winds off shore, a bit windy along the coasts. This is not nailed down yet though with all the models showing different tracks and timing but non showing anything too strong.

adocholiday

ARPEGE 06z just out nudging it further east still, Wicklow taking the brunt of it. This would be bad news for parts of Wicklow because the ground is already totally saturated here after all the rain last week and river levels are high. As @pureza posted in another thread, Arklow had around 130mm of rain last week so this would be quite bad

HARMONIE 06z keeping totals lower and the Meath/Cavan area seeing some higher totals. Seems to be a good bit of uncertainty with this one at this stage still.

pureza

Very very likely wicklow will be orange for that later and other counties

Blend is your friend with these models and it's telling me a lot of rain but thankfully moving faster

Storm 10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121270388#Comment_121270388

Good call ME must be looking here

squonk

I’d say ME are playing it safe now. Even Leo was on the radio shouting his ninth of the other day intimating that ME fúcked up by not posting warnings sooner. With the overall reaction you’d swear ME was in control of the weather and decided that it was time Cork got flooded out of it.

adocholiday

The models are slowly but surely coming inline with Met Eireann's forecast. The 12z runs are out and AROME, ICON, ARPEGE and UKMO are all showing Waterford, Wexford, and Kilkenny in the main firing line, although orange level totals look isolated, probably orange due to impact rather than specific numbers.

HARMONIE out on its own showing parts of Wicklow touching red-level totals, and GFS still leaning towards a much less wet scenario.

Donegal Ken

The latest AROME model is more in line with the the HARMONIE some parts of the southwest in a high level orange pushing into a low red Criteria locally.

Some areas further north could be added to that yellow rainfall warning also into Sligo Leitrim, Cavan, Meath.

Could see a few warning changes over the next few hours yet.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121271690#Comment_121271690

That 41mm isn't too far from Midleton, though in general the trend in most models is East of youghal. Still on top of saturated ground it's hard to know what level of ppn could cause further floods. It's difficult to call tbh

pureza

I find harmonie usually very good at this range,,warning adjustments do seem likely, so let's see what happens?

Chris_5339762

I have to say that despite their warning issues, Met Eireann were pretty much spot on about the amount of rain last week. Up until the event itself, Arpege wasn't having any of it, and really the GFS wasn't great either.

JanuarySnowstor

Heavy rain over Cork at the moment, which seems to be stuff ahead of the main belt later tonight. It all adds up and will be a worry for East Cork. I wouldn't be surprised if Cork goes orange yet as zero soakage means everything that falls is flowing into rivers/roads.

Edit, just looking through all the models and the warnings look fairly spot on with it largely missing East Cork

Meteorite58

ECM back showing windy the SW on Weds, models all over the place though so some uncertainty yet.

W and SW look like getting a bit of rain again

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Meteorite58

Not as windy now for tomorrow, a bit windy and fresh near SW and W coasts and a bit breezy in places overland during the frontal passage.

JanuarySnowstor

Hard to judge ppn for the next week. Low pressure always nearby yet charts look quite dry at times, showery I guess. Turning cooler too!

pauldry

Lows appear over us so the fronts are to the South mainly hopefully far enough South to not cause more flooding. Could be not too much rain but one of the days at the Weekend looks 25mm in it. Not sure will it be Saturday or maybe Sunday.

Meteorite58

ECM back showing that small disturbance off a wave moving up along the W coast tomorrow , windy enough along the Kerry, Galway and Mayo coasts.

Sammy2012

Anyone any weather insights for Sunday and the DCM? What's the weather looking like in the city?

JanuarySnowstor

Gathering pace now for a nasty storm midweek. It could miss us to the South very unclear at the moment, what's certain is that either UK or Ireland will get affected.

ECM, goes for Southern Ireland as its bullseye 🎯

vickers209

Another wet and windy week ahead by looks of things,

JanuarySnowstor

There's been a gradual decline in the storms potential Wednesday night. Bit by bit, run by run it's losing its intensity and sliding South. The only real interest now is whether the South and East will get heavy rain from it. Still a notable storm for Northwest France.

Equally the weekend storm has taken a similar route and is likely to miss South and have little impact. So what looked like a very eventful week could actually deliver very little.

Still time for it all to change, more so for South coast but for now the trends are both systems will be South of Ireland

JanuarySnowstor

06z ups the ante again, that's some amount of rain over the South on top of waterlogged ground! That would be red if it were to come off!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121300747#Comment_121300747

I just hope the trending south of these systems eventually leads to more settled and colder weather later on in November. We are in the game for that with the jetstream on a more southerly track.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121300747#Comment_121300747

YES it was certainly looking like an exciting week of weather, now nothing. very difficult to get storms now in ireland,must be global warming.

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121301010#Comment_121301010

Rain is a big part of a storm too and still looks a risk of quite a substantial fall in the South of the country anyway with further flooding.

pad199207

Worrying rainfall totals again for the southern half of the country through this week.

Meteorite58

Frequent showers streaming in from the Kerry coast here near Tralee today in a LP dominant Atlantic regime over the next 5 days, the place is truly sodden and a showery outlook to be expected for the coming week especially in the western half of the country, more towards coastal areas, with the odd frontal rain thrown in 😀especially Tues night into Weds when it might get a bit breezy to blustery on high ground for a time and windy on the coasts. Cool week in store with increased convection maybe giving some hail showers especially near the Atlantic Seaboard and the chance of a few thunderstorms. Maybe getting cold enough to get a report of a sleety shower as the week goes on especially on higher ground more North or the signs of a small bit of white on mountain tops. Doesn't look like getting cold enough for too much frost if any, maybe a bit in very sheltered inland areas, as the wind and breeze will be around most days and nights, getting breezy inland at times and windy on coasts especially during convective showers. Wont be going far without a good jacket here in Kerry this week !

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327759#Comment_121327759

A badly needed break from the heavier stuff for us in Cork