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Storm Betty Fri 18 to early Sat 19 Aug 2023

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  • 17-08-2023 10:49pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Think this event Friday into Saturday could do with its own dedicated thread. Chance for an upgrade to Orange level warning for rainfall. Possibility of localised flooding especially along Southern counties and up along the West perhaps, but this system could hold a few surprises. Low pressure system approaching the South looks a lot tighter gradients on the latest runs. One to watch.

    Copied the post from the up to 120 hr thread to start.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    Turned into a right nasty system been very hard to follow the runs this week, so much chopping and changing but firming up now. ECM very much big upgrades to the nature of the LP moving up from the South, very active fronts giving very heavy rain, thunderstorms and now strong winds too. Rainfall totals touching Orange warning levels in places, very hard to predict what thunderstorms might drop also , definitely spot flooding possible or maybe more local flooding ie over larger areas.

    So could see increased rainfall warnings/ on the spot thunderstorm warnings, wind warnings look to be introduced again being in the height of the summer holidays.







    Post edited by Meteorite58 on


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58





    Status Yellow - Rain warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wexford, Munster, Galway

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Heavy rain with thundery downpours on Friday and Friday night.

    • Potential Impacts:
    • • Spot flooding.
    • • Difficult travelling conditions.
    • Valid: 14:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 03:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
    • Issued: 15:09 Thursday 17/08/2023

    Status Yellow - Rain warning for Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan, Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Meath, Westmeath, Wicklow, Leitrim, Mayo, Roscommon, Sligo

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Heavy rain with thundery downpours on Friday and Friday night. Strong winds at times along eastern facing coasts.

    • Potential Impacts:
    • • Spot flooding.
    • • Difficult travelling conditions.
    • • Wave overtopping on eastern facing coasts.
    • Valid: 17:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 06:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
    • Issued: 15:09 Thursday 17/08/2023




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    A closer look of some of the 24 hr totals being projected by ECMWF





  • Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Yes worthy of its own thread for the predicted rainfall. With trees in full leaf you never know what disruption even a gale could cause!

    Perhaps the biggest headline is yet another dire weekend of Summer weather ahead......is this about the 8th wet weekend in a row!!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    That's a big 24 hr rain total from ICON, a good model for rainfall this close IMO. Orange warnings likely along the South, most of the rains falling from the afternoon until the early hours of Sat morning.


    Total accumulation from ICON EU up until Sat 10.00





  • Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Yes it's a lot alright but there is good soakage at this time of year. An orange for Cork and Kerry looks appropriate especially as thunderstorms and local flooding could be in the mix..



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Differences in track and shape of the system moving up over the country , ECM far tighter and windier GFS keeping the heaviest rain over in the SW, ECM more a spread along the S. European models better bunched .





  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    Arome 18Z rolling out and a big upgrade in wind strength especially along the S, SE and E , showing huge CAPE readings over the SW, rainfall strongest in the SW, S and SE and possibly up along the E into the NE. A big shift up in gear really for the AROME.





    UKMO quite similar at this stage, winds similar, showing a bit stronger but that is usual for this model.





  • Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Met Eireann going for a short period of storm force 10 across East and South later tonight. That surely means naming the storm and an orangecfor those parts.

    For me the rain and possibly thundery potential is the main risk for the South coast



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    ECM going for it still this morning with disruptive winds across the South!!

    Gfs says what storm



  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭cheezums


    Haven't seen predicted rainfall like that for Cork for a good few years. Soil is not completely saturated so hopefully there won't be too much flooding.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,046 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    MT not really making much of a deal of it in his daily forecast.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,923 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Met Eireann (on radio forecast) saying possible upgrade to warnings later.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Met Eireann using some strong language in their forecast. 'Extremely windy' and 'severe gusts' on Southern and Eastern coastal areas, sounds like we're in for a night of it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 185 ✭✭Hairypoppins




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,141 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster and Munster

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Becoming very windy with southeast winds, veering southwest gusting up to 110km/h, higher on exposed coasts and hills.

    • Potential Impacts:
    • • Damage to temporary structures.
    • • Travel disruption.
    • • Power outages.
    • • Wave overtopping.
    • Valid: 21:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 06:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
    • Issued: 06:59 Friday 18/08/2023

    Marine Warning:

    Status Orange - Storm warning from Wicklow Head to Hook Head to Mizen Head and on the Irish Sea South of Anglesey

    • Southeast winds, veering southwest will reach storm force 10 for a time on Irish coastal waters from Wicklow Head to Hook Head to Mizen Head and on the south Irish Sea.
    • Valid: 22:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 04:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
    • Issued: 05:15 Friday 18/08/2023




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Upgrades now, orange warning for Cork, Waterford and Kilkenny



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Away from desk, maybe someone could update the warnings from Met Eireann into the thread.

    I see also there is an increased threat of thunderstorms in the SW into the mix, in all could be some active storms moving into the , SW, S and SE and up the country later this afternoon / early evening.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Status Orange - Wind and Rainfall warning for Cork, Waterford, Kilkenny

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Late this evening and tonight, Storm Betty will bring south to southwest gales with severe gusts of up to 130 km/hr. Spells of heavy rain and possible coastal flooding.

    • Potential Impacts:
    • • Structural damage
    • • Falling trees
    • • Travel disruption.
    • • Power outages.
    • • Localised flooding
    • • Wave overtopping.
    • Valid: 21:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 03:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
    • Issued: 10:55 Friday 18/08/2023

    Status Yellow - Rain warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wexford, Munster, Galway

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Heavy rain with thundery downpours on Friday and Friday night.

    • Potential Impacts:
    • • Spot flooding.
    • • Difficult travelling conditions.
    • Valid: 14:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 03:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
    • Issued: 15:09 Thursday 17/08/2023

    Status Yellow - Rain warning for Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan, Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Meath, Westmeath, Wicklow, Leitrim, Mayo, Roscommon, Sligo

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Heavy rain with thundery downpours on Friday and Friday night. Strong winds at times along eastern facing coasts.

    • Potential Impacts:
    • • Spot flooding.
    • • Difficult travelling conditions.
    • • Wave overtopping on eastern facing coasts.
    • Valid: 17:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 06:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
    • Issued: 15:09 Thursday 17/08/2023

    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster and Munster

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Becoming very windy with southeast winds, veering southwest gusting up to 110km/h, higher on exposed coasts and hills.

    • Potential Impacts:
    • • Damage to temporary structures.
    • • Travel disruption.
    • • Power outages.
    • • Wave overtopping.
    • Valid: 21:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 06:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
    • Issued: 06:59 Friday 18/08/2023




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,159 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Well done Meteorite on calling this early. Down in West Cork and been bucketing now since 10pm last night. The real rain yet to come which is scary.....



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Looking at the Met Eireann hourly forecast it looks like the system is coming in faster than initially forecast. The strongest winds for the SE were initially around 12am - 5am with max gusts in the 80-90kmph region for my area, now they're 10pm to 3am with max gusts in the low 70's. Perhaps moving faster means less time to deepen? Rainfall totals look higher though, from 30-40mm to 40mm-50mm for South Wicklow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 256 ✭✭ascophyllum


    The ECM and UKV and Arome especially are showing a very intense little system, the GFS is quite different though, unusual to have disagreement at this late stage, the UK model shows the centre a little further south, missing Cork but 90kmph sustained winds just off Cornwall. Interesting to see the next updates this afternoon.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Just looking through the charts and good agreement for some lively thunderstorms too in the mix, could get very squally,thinking about the severe rainfall that brought flash floods to to Tralee , Listowel , Killarney parts of Cork , Dublin just awhile back, thinking could see similar scenarios play out tonight in parts of Munster just about anywhere but especially in coastal areas , places with rivers feeding off high terrain , quite a severe night in store with the combination of weather especially along the S and SE. Need to keep an eye on the charts as they roll out during the day! High tides Cork around 08.00 tomorrow morning.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    They missed a golden opportunity to call this Storm Wetty



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,937 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Looking at wind directions and the worst will be a straight run up the street. It's our big tree out front I have concerns for. Looking at the waves for Tramore the tide is only 3.9 and times not matching up for high tide and winds. Direction is not right either. Hopefully this will help with drainage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,159 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    There is definitely some joke around the song "call me Al" and it's reference to Betty that I just can't make work.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,776 ✭✭✭Bards


    If the electricity is cut it will definitely be Black Betty 🤣🤣🤣



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,185 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Cork, Tipperary, Waterford

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Late this evening and tonight, Storm Betty will bring south to southwest gales with severe gusts of up to 130 km/hr. Spells of heavy rain and possible coastal flooding.


    Potential Impacts:

    • Structural damage

    • Falling trees

    • Travel disruption.

    • Power outages.

    • Localised flooding

    • Wave overtopping.

    Valid: 21:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 03:00 Saturday 19/08/2023

    Issued: 12:51 Friday 18/08/2023



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    This storm looking stronger every run, ARPEGE big upgrade on earlier runs, really tightening up now.





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  • Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Is percipatation intensity and distribution looking similar to earlier charts?



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