Storm Betty Fri 18 to early Sat 19 Aug 2023

Meteorite58

Think this event Friday into Saturday could do with its own dedicated thread. Chance for an upgrade to Orange level warning for rainfall. Possibility of localised flooding especially along Southern counties and up along the West perhaps, but this system could hold a few surprises. Low pressure system approaching the South looks a lot tighter gradients on the latest runs. One to watch.

Copied the post from the up to 120 hr thread to start.

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Turned into a right nasty system been very hard to follow the runs this week, so much chopping and changing but firming up now. ECM very much big upgrades to the nature of the LP moving up from the South, very active fronts giving very heavy rain, thunderstorms and now strong winds too. Rainfall totals touching Orange warning levels in places, very hard to predict what thunderstorms might drop also , definitely spot flooding possible or maybe more local flooding ie over larger areas.

So could see increased rainfall warnings/ on the spot thunderstorm warnings, wind warnings look to be introduced again being in the height of the summer holidays.

Meteorite58

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wexford, Munster, Galway

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Heavy rain with thundery downpours on Friday and Friday night.
• 
  
• Potential Impacts:
• • Spot flooding.
• • Difficult travelling conditions.
• Valid: 14:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 03:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
• Issued: 15:09 Thursday 17/08/2023
• 
  

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan, Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Meath, Westmeath, Wicklow, Leitrim, Mayo, Roscommon, Sligo

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Heavy rain with thundery downpours on Friday and Friday night. Strong winds at times along eastern facing coasts.
• 
  
• Potential Impacts:
• • Spot flooding.
• • Difficult travelling conditions.
• • Wave overtopping on eastern facing coasts.
• Valid: 17:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 06:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
• Issued: 15:09 Thursday 17/08/2023

Meteorite58

A closer look of some of the 24 hr totals being projected by ECMWF

JanuarySnowstor

Yes worthy of its own thread for the predicted rainfall. With trees in full leaf you never know what disruption even a gale could cause!

Perhaps the biggest headline is yet another dire weekend of Summer weather ahead......is this about the 8th wet weekend in a row!!

Meteorite58

That's a big 24 hr rain total from ICON, a good model for rainfall this close IMO. Orange warnings likely along the South, most of the rains falling from the afternoon until the early hours of Sat morning.

Total accumulation from ICON EU up until Sat 10.00

JanuarySnowstor

Yes it's a lot alright but there is good soakage at this time of year. An orange for Cork and Kerry looks appropriate especially as thunderstorms and local flooding could be in the mix..

Meteorite58

Differences in track and shape of the system moving up over the country , ECM far tighter and windier GFS keeping the heaviest rain over in the SW, ECM more a spread along the S. European models better bunched .

Meteorite58

Arome 18Z rolling out and a big upgrade in wind strength especially along the S, SE and E , showing huge CAPE readings over the SW, rainfall strongest in the SW, S and SE and possibly up along the E into the NE. A big shift up in gear really for the AROME.

UKMO quite similar at this stage, winds similar, showing a bit stronger but that is usual for this model.

JanuarySnowstor

Met Eireann going for a short period of storm force 10 across East and South later tonight. That surely means naming the storm and an orangecfor those parts.

For me the rain and possibly thundery potential is the main risk for the South coast

JanuarySnowstor

ECM going for it still this morning with disruptive winds across the South!!

Gfs says what storm

cheezums

Haven't seen predicted rainfall like that for Cork for a good few years. Soil is not completely saturated so hopefully there won't be too much flooding.

mcburns07

MT not really making much of a deal of it in his daily forecast.

DOCARCH

Met Eireann (on radio forecast) saying possible upgrade to warnings later.

adocholiday

Met Eireann using some strong language in their forecast. 'Extremely windy' and 'severe gusts' on Southern and Eastern coastal areas, sounds like we're in for a night of it.

Hairypoppins

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120993703#Comment_120993703

Because he uses the gfs model

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster and Munster

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Becoming very windy with southeast winds, veering southwest gusting up to 110km/h, higher on exposed coasts and hills.
• 
  
• Potential Impacts:
• • Damage to temporary structures.
• • Travel disruption.
• • Power outages.
• • Wave overtopping.
• Valid: 21:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 06:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
• Issued: 06:59 Friday 18/08/2023

Marine Warning:

Status Orange - Storm warning from Wicklow Head to Hook Head to Mizen Head and on the Irish Sea South of Anglesey

• Southeast winds, veering southwest will reach storm force 10 for a time on Irish coastal waters from Wicklow Head to Hook Head to Mizen Head and on the south Irish Sea.
• Valid: 22:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 04:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
• Issued: 05:15 Friday 18/08/2023

adocholiday

Upgrades now, orange warning for Cork, Waterford and Kilkenny

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994495#Comment_120994495

Storm Betty!

Meteorite58

Away from desk, maybe someone could update the warnings from Met Eireann into the thread.

I see also there is an increased threat of thunderstorms in the SW into the mix, in all could be some active storms moving into the , SW, S and SE and up the country later this afternoon / early evening.

leahyl

Status Orange - Wind and Rainfall warning for Cork, Waterford, Kilkenny

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Late this evening and tonight, Storm Betty will bring south to southwest gales with severe gusts of up to 130 km/hr. Spells of heavy rain and possible coastal flooding.
• 
  
• Potential Impacts:
• • Structural damage
• • Falling trees
• • Travel disruption.
• • Power outages.
• • Localised flooding
• • Wave overtopping.
• Valid: 21:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 03:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
• Issued: 10:55 Friday 18/08/2023
• 
  

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Laois, Offaly, Wexford, Munster, Galway

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Heavy rain with thundery downpours on Friday and Friday night.
• 
  
• Potential Impacts:
• • Spot flooding.
• • Difficult travelling conditions.
• Valid: 14:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 03:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
• Issued: 15:09 Thursday 17/08/2023
• 
  

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan, Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Meath, Westmeath, Wicklow, Leitrim, Mayo, Roscommon, Sligo

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Heavy rain with thundery downpours on Friday and Friday night. Strong winds at times along eastern facing coasts.
• 
  
• Potential Impacts:
• • Spot flooding.
• • Difficult travelling conditions.
• • Wave overtopping on eastern facing coasts.
• Valid: 17:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 06:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
• Issued: 15:09 Thursday 17/08/2023
• 
  

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster and Munster

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Becoming very windy with southeast winds, veering southwest gusting up to 110km/h, higher on exposed coasts and hills.
• 
  
• Potential Impacts:
• • Damage to temporary structures.
• • Travel disruption.
• • Power outages.
• • Wave overtopping.
• Valid: 21:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 06:00 Saturday 19/08/2023
• Issued: 06:59 Friday 18/08/2023

Rebelbrowser

Well done Meteorite on calling this early. Down in West Cork and been bucketing now since 10pm last night. The real rain yet to come which is scary.....

adocholiday

Looking at the Met Eireann hourly forecast it looks like the system is coming in faster than initially forecast. The strongest winds for the SE were initially around 12am - 5am with max gusts in the 80-90kmph region for my area, now they're 10pm to 3am with max gusts in the low 70's. Perhaps moving faster means less time to deepen? Rainfall totals look higher though, from 30-40mm to 40mm-50mm for South Wicklow.

ascophyllum

The ECM and UKV and Arome especially are showing a very intense little system, the GFS is quite different though, unusual to have disagreement at this late stage, the UK model shows the centre a little further south, missing Cork but 90kmph sustained winds just off Cornwall. Interesting to see the next updates this afternoon.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994776#Comment_120994776

Just looking through the charts and good agreement for some lively thunderstorms too in the mix, could get very squally,thinking about the severe rainfall that brought flash floods to to Tralee , Listowel , Killarney parts of Cork , Dublin just awhile back, thinking could see similar scenarios play out tonight in parts of Munster just about anywhere but especially in coastal areas , places with rivers feeding off high terrain , quite a severe night in store with the combination of weather especially along the S and SE. Need to keep an eye on the charts as they roll out during the day! High tides Cork around 08.00 tomorrow morning.

Reckless Abandonment

They missed a golden opportunity to call this Storm Wetty

spookwoman

Looking at wind directions and the worst will be a straight run up the street. It's our big tree out front I have concerns for. Looking at the waves for Tramore the tide is only 3.9 and times not matching up for high tide and winds. Direction is not right either. Hopefully this will help with drainage.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994842#Comment_120994842

There is definitely some joke around the song "call me Al" and it's reference to Betty that I just can't make work.....

Bards

If the electricity is cut it will definitely be Black Betty 🤣🤣🤣

pad199207

Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Cork, Tipperary, Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Late this evening and tonight, Storm Betty will bring south to southwest gales with severe gusts of up to 130 km/hr. Spells of heavy rain and possible coastal flooding.

Potential Impacts:

• Structural damage

• Falling trees

• Travel disruption.

• Power outages.

• Localised flooding

• Wave overtopping.

Valid: 21:00 Friday 18/08/2023 to 03:00 Saturday 19/08/2023

Issued: 12:51 Friday 18/08/2023

Meteorite58

This storm looking stronger every run, ARPEGE big upgrade on earlier runs, really tightening up now.

bazlers

Is percipatation intensity and distribution looking similar to earlier charts?

Hooter23

Strange to have a storm come directly from the south this time of year with such heat over spain & france..and its not an ex hurricane...unusual could do damage

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995141#Comment_120995141

I think the orange warning for Wexford/Wicklow there is more for the immediate coastal areas. The only model showing the more severe gusts inland is Harmonie. Even Met Eireann themselves are showing average wind speeds of around 40-45kmph and gusts around 70kmph for my area, which is only 20km in a straight line from the coast.

TedBundysDriver

What's the chances they'll cancel sailings out of Rosslare port tonight. I'm on a boat to Bilbao at 11:30pm. Seems the worst of it will hit Cork not Wexford right?

dsmythy

I'd say Cork is getting it's usual flooding but with a big + sign to go with the potential for worse.

Trees in the East are definitely not going to appreciate this one with the switching in strong wind direction and unusual initial strong southeasterly. If it plays out as such.

esposito

Things seem to be really escalating now. Models did not nail this one in advance. Interesting 24hrs ahead

spookwoman

Rainfall warning seems to have updated

Status Orange - Rain warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Cork, Tipperary, Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy rain with thundery downpours on Friday and Friday night and combined with very strong winds on coasts at times.

Potential Impacts:

• Localised flooding.

• Difficult travelling conditions.

• Wave overtopping on coasts.

Valid: 13:04 Friday 18/08/2023 to 23:00 Friday 18/08/2023

Issued: 13:05 Friday 18/08/2023

.Donegal.

Yellow - Rain Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry

The highest rainfall totals are expected over east-facing high ground of the Mourne Mountains, Antrim Hills and Sperrins where 40-80mm could accumulate.

JanuarySnowstor

The ECM looks very severe across the South as the low moves in! Bordering red, certainly high level orange!

bazlers

I gues it has changed. I see Laois and Offaly have no warnings now for rainfall.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995195#Comment_120995195

From my position, things seem to have kicked off early. My weather station has registered 10.8 mm of rainfall so far, with 4mm of that falling within the last hour:

https://weathermap.netatmo.com/?zoom=9&type=temp&param=Filter&stationid=70%3Aee%3A50%3A1d%3Af2%3Ac2&maplayer=Map&lang=en-GB

That link should take you to my weather station if you want to check for yourself. Just an amateur level Netatmo station, but might be interesting.

bazlers

Excellent. Thank you thomil.

mcburns07

Ironman taking place in Youghal tomorrow, wouldn't be surprised if there were weather impacts to the day, I guess the sea will still be pretty rough first thing tomorrow morning, and there'll probably be debris / surface water to contend with for the bike leg.

SuperBowserWorld

Not nice

Whoa Storm Betty, bam-ba-lam

bazlers

I guess if was clerical error. Giving a yellow warning again.

.Donegal.

Heavy rain across the South now. It’s the perfect storm for downing trees as the soil will be extremely saturated by the time the worst of wind arrive. Orange level rainfall for a good part of the day before the orange level wind tonight. Trees in full leaf as well plus ash dieback disease has become much more prevalent over the last couple of years. Definitely not worth driving later this evening and tonight for the counties under orange warning.

Models not agreeing on the track for this. WRF and GFS have it on a more Westerly heading while the UKMO HD has it more Easterly. So where the strongest winds are going to be isn’t certain yet.

ECM and Arpege want to keep the LP on a more Westerly heading too. So maybe the UKMO HD is the outlier for now.

iancairns

This feels like 7/8 weekends in a row there. Is there any science to why these cycles of weather are 7days apart and therefore every weekend?

SweetCaliber

Closed the prom in Tramore and are erecting all flood defense's in Waterford. Not seen that happen in a long time (flood defense's)

This is a very early storm. If memory serves me ex Hurricane Charley was around the 25th August 1986 and rain was more a feature than wind.