July 2023 Boards weather forecast contest
Comments
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After two leaks, sorry weeks ...
IMT a stunning 15.1 C, the past week average was 15.6 near average (+0.1) although colder at some western locations. Models do not show much change in that trend and it will probably be a finish near our coldest forecasts or below perhaps in the mid to high 15 range.
MAX 24.1, MIN 6.9 _ the max could stand based on current models although a slight increase could occur on any reasonably warm day later in the month. Min is difficult to project in a cool but cloudy regime. Sooner or later a clear night could come along and drop that value considerably. Daily record lows in July are generally in the 2-4 C range.
PRC after 14th was at 230% of normal with the past week 290%. Adding on the rainfall today (grid average around 15 mm), the month is at 250% of normal and the guaranteed outcome (amount already fallen vs end of month normals) is 120%. Each further 8-10 mm will add 10% to that (approximately). Given the forecasts it seems very likely that the end result will be well above our highest forecast of 155% so you can expect scoring to be based on minimum progression. I think we'll be at that max forecast value by mid-week.
SUN now at 86% with week two average 87%. This will likely stay fairly static through the following week, some recovery towards normal may be possible if it brightens up in week four. If I had to guess today I would say end of month 90%.
The high minimum so far is 16.6 C. No obvious signs of a warmer reading any time soon.
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After three weeks,
IMT 15.0, third week average 14.7 was 1.0 below normal. This looks likely to finish below normal and below all forecasts but minimum progression scoring may not be required. If so it will be slight.
MAX 24.1 MIN 6.9
PRC now 221% of normal, with third week 203%. The outcome with 150% of normal quite possible now to end of July will be at least twice normal and this will definitely trigger minimum progression scoring.
SUN has improved to 90% as the third week managed to keep pace with normal ending up 98.5% despite the two Dublin stations running quite cloudy. The outcome for SUN may drop back towards 80%.
BONUS _ high minimum remains 16.6. We'll see if this can be increased but no clear signs.
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Early scoring estimates _ if no new extremes are recorded
This table is based on IMT of 15.2 and MAX, MIN, BONUS as they stand (see my previous post), PRC 200% and SUN 80%.
If anything happens to change any of those outcomes, I will adjust this preliminary scoring table.
FORECASTER __________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ BONUS __ TOTAL
Kindred Spirit __________09 _ 06*_ 12*_ 03*_ 04 ___ 07 _____ 41
Tae laidir _____________ 11 _ 08*_ 19*_ 13*_ 08 ___ 05 _____ 64
Rameire ______________11 _ 15*_ 16*_ 09*_ 07 ___ 10 _____ 68
200motels ____________12 _ 05*_ 15*_ 06*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 53
john mac _____________12 _ 09*_ 13*_ 07*_ 05 ___ 05 _____ 51
sryanbruen ___________ 13 _ 08*_ 14*_ 07*_ 07 ___ 07 _____ 56
Appledrop ____________ 15 _ 07*_ 12*_ 12*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 60
Artane2002 ___________ 15 _ 14*_ 18*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 68
DOCARCH ____________ 16 _ 03*_ 12*_ 02*_ 06 ___ 09 _____ 48
MrSkinner ____________ 17 _ 04*_ 10*_ 04*_ 06 ___ 10 _____ 51
Cornerstonelad _______ 17 _ 08*_ 15*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 02 _____ 58
Sunflower3 ___________ 17 _ 09*_ 20*_ 09*_ 07 ___ 10 _____ 72
___ Con Sensus _______ 17 _ 08*_ 14*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 62
Dasa29 ______________ 17 _ 12*_ 05*_ 01*_ 04 ___ 09 _____ 48
Joe Public ____________ 18 _ 01*_ 06*_ 11*_ 08 ___ 01 _____ 45
Bsal _________________18 _ 12*_ 09*_ 11*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 66
Dacogawa ____________ 19 _ 02*_ 09*_ 15*_ 08 ___ 02 _____ 55
Jpmarn _______________19 _ 09*_ 15*_ 14*_ 09 ___ 05 _____ 71
esposito ___ (-2) _______19 _ 12*_ 11*_ 03*_ 06 ___ 05 _56-2 =54
waterways ____________ 19 _ 13*_ 17*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 03 _____ 68
Gonzo ________________20 _ 19*_ 16*_ 13*_ 09 ___ 10 _____ 87
M.T. Cranium __________ 21 _ 17*_ 20*_ 11*_ 09 ___ 10 _____ 88
Pauldry _______________22 _ 08*_ 08*_ 11*_ 07 ___ 04 _____ 60
___ NormaL ___________22 _ 15*_ 13*_ 04*_ 06 ___ 07 _____ 67
Adam240610_ (-2) _____ 23 _ 15*_ 13*_ 04*_ 08 ___ 08 _71-2 =69
Mr. stonewall _ (-1) _____ 25 _ 04*_ 14*_ 02*_ 08 ___ 10 _63-1 =62
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* Minimum progression for MAX, MIN, PRC. The values for MAX are scaled to differentials to some extent. Bonus scores are based entirely on ranges. Two forecasts were below the current value (16.6), closest values were 16.7 and 16.5, 16.6 to 17.0 range was scored 10, 17.1 to 17.3 09, 17.4 to 17.6 08, etc for each group of 0.3 C to 19.2-19.4 02, then one lower scores of 01 for 19.9.
(actual forecasts)
FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ BONUS (high min)
Kindred Spirit __________16.8 _ 29.4 _ 4.2 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 17.9
Tae laidir ______________16.6 _ 28.9 _ 5.4 _ 131 _ 092 ___ 18.5
Rameire ______________ 16.6 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.5
200motels ____________ 16.5 _ 29.6 _ 4.8 _ 106 _ 092 ___ 17.9
john mac _____________ 16.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.3 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 18.3
sryanbruen ___________ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 4.7 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 17.8
Appledrop ____________ 16.2 _ 28.9 _ 4.2 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 18.2
Artane2002 ___________ 16.2 _ 27.8 _ 5.2 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 18.0
DOCARCH ____________ 16.1 _ 30.3 _ 4.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 17.3
MrSkinner ____________ 16.0 _ 30.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0
Cornerstonelad ________16.0 _ 28.9 _ 4.8 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 19.4
Sunflower3 ___________ 16.0 _ 28.2 _ 5.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 17.0
___ Con Sensus _______ 16.0 _ 28.6 _ 4.6 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 17.9
Dasa29 ______________ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 17.5
Joe Public ____________ 15.9 _ 33.2 _ 3.6 _ 121 _ 088 ___ 19.9
Bsal _________________ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 090 ___ 17.2
Dacogawa ____________ 15.8 _ 32.4 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 090 ___ 19.2
Jpmarn _______________15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.8 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 18.5
esposito ___ (-2) _______15.8 _ 28.0 _ 4.1 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 18.5
waterways ____________ 15.8 _ 27.9 _ 5.1 _ 113 _ 089 ___ 18.9
Gonzo _______________ 15.7 _ 25.2 _ 4.9 _ 128 _ 076 ___ 16.2
M.T. Cranium __________15.6 _ 26.0 _ 5.5 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 17.0
Pauldry ______________ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 119 _ 096 ___ 18.7
___ NormaL ___________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.8
Adam240610_ (-2) _____ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 17.5
Mr. stonewall _ (-1) _____ 15.2 _ 29.8 _ 4.6 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 16.7
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Final scoring could look different but for now this is what we face if nothing changes ... Gonzo and MTC cannot improve PRC or BONUS, but a slight rise in high min could drop Gonzo a point or two, so we're locked in a battle, others can zoom past us if something were to change in any elements. A somewhat higher MAX not going beyond Gonzo's range could (a) improve his score by one and (b) introduce hammer scoring reductions for the rest of us. There does not appear to be hammer potential for MIN as so many forecasts are grouped together. By end of Thursday all chance for a PRC hammer will be washed away.
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on4 -
MIN of 5.5 now recorded at Claremorris (25th) so the MIN scores may change a bit as minimum progression now not required or if so, a hammer situation applies. Will work it out later if no lower values appear.
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Post edited by Tae laidir on0 -
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No mins much below 10c between now and August so min is likely done.
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After four weeks ...
IMT on 15.1, fourth week average 15.5 was 0.1 below normal. Looks likely to finish on 15.2 or 15.3 now.
MAX 24.1 MIN 5.5 probably done.
PRC 211% of normal, fourth week 182% of normal, will probably finish around 200% at least.
SUN down to 85% with the fourth week average 68.5%.
No new high min, it remains 16.6 C.
A reposting of the scoring estimate, removing minimum progression from MIN, will take place soon, will wait to see if 16.6 holds up as high minimum overnight, think it will.
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Updated scoring estimates for July 2023
Changes have been made to MIN scoring which no longer needs to be adjusted for minimum progression. Also the scores have been placed in order. Any further changes needed will be shown on Tuesday 1st or Wed 2nd.
The values used to derive the scores are shown below:
Estimates ___________ 15.2 _24.1 _5.5 _200 _080 __ 16.6
FORECASTER __________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ BONUS __ TOTAL
M.T. Cranium __________ 21 _ 17*_ 20 _ 11*_ 09 ___ 10 _____ 88
Gonzo ________________20 _ 19*_ 14 _ 13*_ 09 ___ 10 _____ 85
Sunflower3 ____________17 _ 09*_ 20 _ 09*_ 07 ___ 10 _____ 72
Jpmarn _______________19 _ 09*_ 13 _ 14*_ 09 ___ 05 _____ 69
Rameire ______________11 _ 15*_ 15 _ 09*_ 07 ___ 10 _____ 67
Artane2002 ___________ 15 _ 14*_ 17 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 67
waterways ____________ 19 _ 13*_ 16 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 03 _____ 67
Adam240610_ (-2) _____ 23 _ 15*_ 10 _ 04*_ 08 ___ 08 _68-2=66
Tae laidir _____________ 11 _ 08*_ 19 _ 13*_ 08 ___ 05 _____ 64
___ NormaL ___________22 _ 15*_ 10 _ 04*_ 06 ___ 07 _____ 64
Bsal _________________ 18 _ 12*_ 04 _ 11*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 61
Pauldry _______________22 _ 08*_ 03 _ 11*_ 07 ___ 04 _____ 60
Mr. stonewall _ (-1) _____ 25 _ 04*_ 11 _ 02*_ 08 ___ 10 _60-1=59
___ Con Sensus _______ 17 _ 08*_ 11 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 59
Cornerstonelad _______ 17 _ 08*_ 13 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 02 _____ 56
Appledrop ____________ 15 _ 07*_ 07 _ 12*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 55
sryanbruen ___________ 13 _ 08*_ 12 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 07 _____ 54
200motels ____________12 _ 05*_ 13 _ 06*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 51
john mac _____________12 _ 09*_ 12 _ 07*_ 05 ___ 05 _____ 50
Dacogawa ____________ 19 _ 02*_ 04 _ 15*_ 08 ___ 02 _____ 50
esposito ___ (-2) _______19 _ 12*_ 06 _ 03*_ 06 ___ 05 _51-2=49
MrSkinner ____________ 17 _ 04*_ 05 _ 04*_ 06 ___ 10 _____ 46
DOCARCH ____________ 16 _ 03*_ 08 _ 02*_ 06 ___ 09 _____ 44
Dasa29 ______________ 17 _ 12*_ 00 _ 01*_ 04 ___ 09 _____ 43
Joe Public ____________ 18 _ 01*_ 01 _ 11*_ 08 ___ 01 _____ 40
Kindred Spirit _________ 09 _ 06*_ 07 _ 03*_ 04 ___ 07 _____ 36
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* Minimum progression for MAX, and PRC. The values for MAX are scaled to differentials to some extent. Bonus scores are based entirely on ranges. Two forecasts were below the current value (16.6), closest values were 16.7 and 16.5, 16.6 to 17.0 range was scored 10, 17.1 to 17.3 09, 17.4 to 17.6 08, etc for each group of 0.3 C to 19.2-19.4 02, then one lower scores of 01 for 19.9.
(actual forecasts)
FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ BONUS (high min)
Kindred Spirit __________16.8 _ 29.4 _ 4.2 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 17.9
Tae laidir ______________16.6 _ 28.9 _ 5.4 _ 131 _ 092 ___ 18.5
Rameire ______________ 16.6 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.5
200motels ____________ 16.5 _ 29.6 _ 4.8 _ 106 _ 092 ___ 17.9
john mac _____________ 16.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.3 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 18.3
sryanbruen ___________ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 4.7 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 17.8
Appledrop ____________ 16.2 _ 28.9 _ 4.2 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 18.2
Artane2002 ___________ 16.2 _ 27.8 _ 5.2 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 18.0
DOCARCH ____________ 16.1 _ 30.3 _ 4.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 17.3
MrSkinner ____________ 16.0 _ 30.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0
Cornerstonelad ________16.0 _ 28.9 _ 4.8 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 19.4
Sunflower3 ___________ 16.0 _ 28.2 _ 5.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 17.0
___ Con Sensus _______ 16.0 _ 28.6 _ 4.6 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 17.9
Dasa29 ______________ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 17.5
Joe Public ____________ 15.9 _ 33.2 _ 3.6 _ 121 _ 088 ___ 19.9
Bsal _________________ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 090 ___ 17.2
Dacogawa ____________ 15.8 _ 32.4 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 090 ___ 19.2
Jpmarn _______________15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.8 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 18.5
esposito ___ (-2) _______15.8 _ 28.0 _ 4.1 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 18.5
waterways ____________ 15.8 _ 27.9 _ 5.1 _ 113 _ 089 ___ 18.9
Gonzo _______________ 15.7 _ 25.2 _ 4.9 _ 128 _ 076 ___ 16.2
M.T. Cranium __________15.6 _ 26.0 _ 5.5 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 17.0
Pauldry ______________ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 119 _ 096 ___ 18.7
___ NormaL ___________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.8
Adam240610_ (-2) _____ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 17.5
Mr. stonewall _ (-1) _____ 15.2 _ 29.8 _ 4.6 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 16.7
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Annual scoring update January to July 2023 __ estimated values for July, to be updated on 2 Aug
Table continues to be ordered (first column) by total scores, will become ordered by best 7/9 in September ...
... ... (best 7/8 will be given next summary) ... ranks for best 6/7 are in second last column
... ... an error was noted in June annual summary, Con Sensus best 5/6 rank was 2.9 not same as 4.0 (its previous rank). Also as noted in June two scores gained one point not in table for June.
... In preliminary scoring, four are now tied for second in 6/7. Artane2002 is in first.
Rank (prev)_FORECASTER __ J __F __M __A __M __J __J __TOTAL __ Best 6/7 (rank) ((prev rank 5/6))
_ 00.8 (01.5)_ Con Sensus __ 65 _74 _58 _64 _66 _68 _59 __ 454 ___ 396 _ (5.4) _ (2.9)
_ 01 (02) _sryanbruen ______46 _76 _68 _55 _70 _76 _54 __ 445 ___ 399 _ ( t2 ) _ ( t1 )
_ 02 (07) _adam240610 ____ 61 _61 _65 _57 _62 _72 _66 __ 444 ___ 387 _ ( 7 ) _ ( 8 )
_ 03 (09) _M.T. Cranium_____67 _70 _44 _54 _61 _59 _88 __ 443 ___ 399 _ ( t2 ) _ ( 9 )
_ 04 (05) _Sunflower3 ______47 _69 _39 _84 _72 _55 _72 __ 438 ___ 399 _ ( t2 ) _ ( t4 )
_ 05 (01) _Kindred Spirit ____58 _74 _74 _62 _54 _77 _36 __ 435 ___ 399 _ ( t2 ) _ ( t1 )
_ 06 (06) _tae laidir ________38 _64 _72 _80 _68 _43 _64 __ 429 ___ 391 _ ( 6 ) _ ( t4 )
_t07 (07) _Appledrop _______53 _64 _73 _64 _33 _72 _55 __ 414 ___ 381 _ ( 8 ) _ ( 6 )
_t07 (04) _DOCARCH _______77 _67 _69 _48 _51 _58 _44 __ 414 ___ 370 _ (t9) _ ( 7 )
_t07 (14)_Gonzo __________ 46 _69 _52 _58 _60 _44 _85 __ 414 ___ 370 _ (t9) _ (17)
(t7)_(9.0) _ NormaL ______67 _44 _76 _77 _42 _38 _64 __ 408 ___ 370 _ (t9) _ (10.8)
_ 10 (12) _Artane2002 (6/7)__50 _71 _78 _--- _71 _66 _67 __ 403 ___ 403 _ ( 1 ) _ ( 3 )
_ 11 (10) _Pauldry _________ 50 _62 _66 _50 _48 _64 _60 __ 400 ___ 352 _ (14) _ (14)
_ 12 (09) _Dacogawa _______ 63 _58 _54 _51 _39 _79 _50 __ 394 ___ 355 _ (13) _ (11)
_ 13 (13) _Bsal ____________ 71 _49 _42 _68 _46 _54 _61 __ 391 ___ 349 _ (t16)_ (16)
_ 14 (11)_200 motels _______ 41 _74 _38 _66 _68 _50 _51 __ 388 ___ 350 _ (15) _ (12)
_ 15 (18) _ waterways ______ 52 _27 _41 _76 _53 _59 _67 __ 375 ___ 348 _ (18) _ (18)
_ 16 (20) _Rameire _________ 10 _68 _52 _53 _61 _57 _67 __ 368 ___ 358 _ (12) _ (15)
_ 17 (15) _MrSkinner ________25 _69 _34 _53 _72 _65 _46 __ 364 ___ 339 _ (19) _ (13)
_t18 (16) _Dasa29 __________61 _54 _42 _45 _63 _51 _43 __ 359 ___ 317 _ (21) _ (20)
_t18 (17) _john mac (6/7)____58 _47 _71 _72 _61 _--- _50 __ 359 ___ 359 _ (11) _ (10)
_ 20 (21) _Cornerstonelad ___ 49 _61 _25 _58 _56 _49 _56 __ 354 ___ 329 _ (20) _ (21)
_ 21 (23)_ Jpmarn _________ 61 _49 _50 _51 _--- _69 _69 __ 349 ___ 349 _ (t16)_ (19)
_ 22 (19) _Joe Public _______ 46 _48 _53 _63 _42 _54 _40 __ 346 ___ 306 _ (23) _ (22)
_ 23 (22) _ Mr.stonewall _____45 _30 _54 _48 _48 _57 _59 __ 341 ___ 311 _ (22) _ (23)
_ 24 (25)_esposito (5/7) _____54 _57 _45 _--- _--- _49 _ 49 __ 254 ___ 254 _ (24) _ (25)
(above score for esposito will compare more favorably after two scores dropped from rest of field after Sep)
================== above can still qualify for best 10/12 =====================
_ 25 (24) _WolfeEire (4/7)____ 76 _47 _59 _52 _--- _--- _ ---__ 234 ___ 234 _ (---) _ (24)
_ 26 (26)_Rebelbrowser(1/7)__ 78__--- __---__--- __--- __--- _ --- ___ 78
_ 27 (27) _ JCX BXC (1/7) ___ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- __ 65 _ --- __ 65
_ 28 (28) _Aah yes (1/7) ____ --- __--- __---__--- __ 60 __--- _ --- ___ 60
_ 29 (29) _ sdanseo (1/7) ___ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- __ 59 _ --- ___ 59
_ 30 (30) _ Danno (1/7) ____ 58 __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- __ --- _ --- ___ 58
_ 31 (31) _ Tazio (1/7) _____ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ --- __ 51 _ --- ___ 51
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___ Category scoring totals January -July ____
subject to adjustments around 2 Aug for July scoring
FORECASTER ___ IMT _MAX _MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS __ TOTAL (total before late pens)
Max Possible ____175 _140 _140 _105 _ 70 __ 70 ____ 700
_ Con Sensus ___ 120 _ 90 _ 79 _ 66 _ 51 __ 48 ____ 454
sryanbruen _____ 124 _ 84 _ 86 _ 67 _ 46 __ 40 _____445 (447)
adam240610____ 130 _ 72 _ 85 _ 67 _ 49 __ 44 ____ 444 (447)
M.T. Cranium ____126 _ 46 _ 94 _ 74 _ 54 __ 49 ____ 443
Sunflower3 _____128 _ 72 _ 79 _ 63 _ 49 __ 47 ____ 438
Kindred Spirit ___ 113 _ 89 _ 78 _ 60 _ 42 __ 53 ____ 435
Tae laidir _______ 140 _ 62 _ 87 _ 42 _ 51 __ 47 ____ 429
Appledrop _______125 _ 54 _ 74 _ 67 _ 57 __ 37 ____ 414
DOCARCH _______ 97 _ 78 _ 80 _ 73 _ 49 __ 37 _____414
Gonzo __________126 _ 78 _ 47 _ 66 _ 48 __ 51 ____ 414 (416)
_ NormaL _______87 _ 78 _ 76 _ 70 _ 47 __ 50 ____ 408
Artane2002 (6/7) _ 106 _ 75 _ 79 _ 63 _ 44 __ 38 ____ 403 (405)
Pauldry _________ 130 _ 66 _ 44 _ 81 _ 45 __ 29 ____ 400
Dacogawa _______ 126 _ 70 _ 52 _ 53 _ 52 __ 41 ____ 394
Bsal ____________112 _ 67 _ 56 _ 68 _ 51 __ 46 ____ 391 (400)
200 motels ______ 122 _ 68 _ 63 _ 68 _ 47 __ 34 ____ 388 (402)
waterways _______ 97 _ 70 _ 59 _ 48 _ 55 __ 46 ____ 375
Rameire _________108 _ 61 _ 59 _ 69 _ 48 __ 51 ____ 368 (396)
MrSkinner _______119 _ 60 _ 58 _ 57 _ 38 __ 34 ____ 364 (366)
Dasa29 _________ 102 _ 54 _ 49 _ 59 _ 49 __ 46 ____ 359
john mac (6/7) ____94 _ 63 _ 73 _ 58 _ 42 __ 30 ____ 359 (360)
Cornerstonelad ___116 _ 75 _ 54 _ 47 _ 37 __ 42 ____ 354 (371)
Jpmarn ___(6/7)___97_ 39 _ 74 _ 59 _ 40 __ 40 ____ 349
Joe Public _______115 _ 80 _ 33 _ 57 _ 43 __ 22 ____ 346 (350)
Mr.stonewall _____108 _ 49 _ 68 _ 34 _ 42 __ 41 ____ 341 (342)
esposito __ (5/7)___86 _ 58 _ 14 _ 42 _ 30 __ 26 ____ 254 (256)
WolfeEire (4/7) ____61 _ 35 _ 49 _ 43 _ 24 __ 22 ____ 234
Rebelbrowser (1/7)_15 _ 16 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 78
JCX BXC ___ (1/7)_ 25 _ 12 _ 16 _ 00 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 65
aah yes____(1/7)__17 _ 12 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 __ 07 _____ 60 (63)
sdanseo ___(1/7) _ 14 _ 14 _ 18 _ 01 _ 07 __ 05 _____ 59
Danno ____ (1/7) _ 13 _ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 __ 08 _____ 58
Tazio _____ (1/7) _ 21 _ 00 _ 17 _ 07 _ 04 __ 02 _____ 51
___________________________________
In category scoring (Jan to July totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.
(ranks are given to top three forecasters, regardless of position of NormaL or Con Sensus as noted below)
IMT _ two tied for second place, no third place awarded.
MAX _ Con Sensus would be first alone.
MIN, PRC, SUN _ Three ranks without ties.
BONUS _ Two tied for second place, no third place awarded.
Order in category scoring is same as determined by total scores in annual scoring summary above this table.
Not all have any late penalties, but those who do will have their contest score (after penalties) in the TOTAL column and the total before penalties (the sum of the category scores) in brackets and italic font, after their contest score.
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IMT finished on 15.1 not 15.2 as expected. It only made it to 15.12 before rounding. All scores above lose one point there. Will transfer the point to MAX where the current minimum progression starts 19, 17 ... all scores will go up one to 20, 18 etc. So IMT and MAX category scores will balance out and totals (monthly, annual) can remain same as shown.
PRC was 216%, all stations above 170%.
SUN estimate is very close to 82.5%, waiting to see what monthly summary reveals as to whether or not SUN scores are okay or need an update. Same goes for MAX and MIN in case our tracking missed anything (24.1, 5.5). Quite certain about the bonus value of 16.6.
Will be back tomorrow to confirm scoring either way.
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Note: I see that 1991-2020 normals are now available on met.ie website.
Will this affect contest scoring?
For temperatures, not at all, since we predict absolute values of IMT, MAX and MIN.
For precip, I will assume that whatever percentages are available from tables or graphs are for latest available normals and will use them seamlessly, in part because I can't easily tell what normal period is being referenced in any given product, but also because precip normals don't tend to change all that much. Certainly this past month would have finished well over 200% using any set of normals.
For SUN, I am going to continue to use 1981-2010 normals to end of 2023 when checking the graphic displays against the week to week tracking. This is because I suspect that any changes will be minor and will make no substantial difference to scoring anyway. After 2023 ends I may try to improve our contest SUN tracking so that it can be based on the ag met reports where weekly percentages are given. If every month was like February in non leap-years this would be easy. But I think I know how I could just extend the given values for four weeks to 30 or 31 days using daily data.
This is what I do now anyway to estimate SUN. Then I won't need to use the monthly summary at all to score SUN, except in cases where there is a lot of missing data during the month that is collated at end of month.
Now, as to this month ... assume for now the scoring is complete other than the two mutually cancelling changes to IMT and MAX scoring. If I don't post again, that will be the final scoring. If I see any need to revise other aspects, I will be back in after the MS appears (which should be soon, usually around 1100h of second working day of month).
If it's just a case of revising IMT and MAX scores, I may post the tables anyway with those changes made. I will be checking SUN from the base line of a daily average of 4.83 hours or an average monthly total of 150 hours.
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The SUN value from MS was 84% so that results in a slight change to scoring. Almost all scores increased by one. The IMT and MAX scoring are adjusted as explained above, and I also added one superbonus point to two forecasts wit in 0.1 of the result. An error was found in one score total (Pauldry) that was shown as 60 but was actually 55.
This is the updated scoring...
Updated scoring for July 2023
Actual values _________ 15.1 _24.1 _5.5 _216 _084 __ 16.6
FORECASTER __________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ BONUS __ TOTAL
M.T. Cranium __________ 20 _ 18*_ 20 _ 11*_ 10 ___ 10 _____ 89
Gonzo ________________19 _ 20*_ 14 _ 13*_ 08 ___ 10 _____ 84
Sunflower3 ____________16 _ 10*_ 20 _ 09*_ 08 ___ 10 _____ 73
Jpmarn _______________18 _ 10*_ 13 _ 14*_ 10 ___ 05 _____ 70
Rameire ______________10 _ 16*_ 15 _ 09*_ 08 ___ 11 _____ 69
Artane2002 ___________ 14 _ 15*_ 17 _ 07*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 68
waterways ____________ 18 _ 14*_ 16 _ 08*_ 09 ___ 03 _____ 68
Adam240610_ (-2) _____ 22 _ 16*_ 10 _ 04*_ 09 ___ 08 _69-2=67
___ NormaL ___________21 _ 16*_ 10 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 07 _____ 65
Tae laidir _____________ 10 _ 09*_ 19 _ 13*_ 08 ___ 05 _____ 64
Bsal _________________ 17 _ 13*_ 04 _ 11*_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 62
Mr. stonewall _ (-1) _____ 24 _ 05*_ 11 _ 02*_ 09 ___ 11 _62-1=61
___ Con Sensus _______ 16 _ 09*_ 11 _ 08*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 60
Cornerstonelad _______ 16 _ 09*_ 13 _ 08*_ 09 ___ 02 _____ 57
Pauldry _______________21 _ 09*_ 03 _ 11*_ 08 ___ 04 _____ 56
Appledrop ____________ 14 _ 08*_ 07 _ 12*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 56
sryanbruen ___________ 12 _ 09*_ 12 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 55
200motels ____________11 _ 06*_ 13 _ 06*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 51
john mac _____________11 _ 10*_ 12 _ 07*_ 06 ___ 05 _____ 51
Dacogawa ____________ 18 _ 03*_ 04 _ 15*_ 09 ___ 02 _____ 51
esposito ___ (-2) _______18 _ 13*_ 06 _ 03*_ 07 ___ 05 _52-2=50
MrSkinner ____________ 16 _ 05*_ 05 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 10 _____ 47
DOCARCH ____________ 15 _ 04*_ 08 _ 02*_ 07 ___ 09 _____ 45
Dasa29 ______________ 16 _ 13*_ 00 _ 01*_ 05 ___ 09 _____ 44
Joe Public ____________ 17 _ 02*_ 01 _ 11*_ 09 ___ 01 _____ 41
Kindred Spirit _________ 08 _ 07*_ 07 _ 03*_ 05 ___ 07 _____ 37
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* Minimum progression for MAX, and PRC. The values for MAX are scaled to differentials to some extent. Bonus scores are based entirely on ranges. Two forecasts were below the current value (16.6), closest values were 16.7 and 16.5 (these get one extra super-bonus point), 16.6 to 17.0 range was scored 10, 17.1 to 17.3 09, 17.4 to 17.6 08, etc for each group of 0.3 C to 19.2-19.4 02, then one lower scores of 01 for 19.9.
(actual forecasts)
FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ BONUS (high min)
Kindred Spirit __________16.8 _ 29.4 _ 4.2 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 17.9
Tae laidir ______________16.6 _ 28.9 _ 5.4 _ 131 _ 092 ___ 18.5
Rameire ______________ 16.6 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.5
200motels ____________ 16.5 _ 29.6 _ 4.8 _ 106 _ 092 ___ 17.9
john mac _____________ 16.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.3 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 18.3
sryanbruen ___________ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 4.7 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 17.8
Appledrop ____________ 16.2 _ 28.9 _ 4.2 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 18.2
Artane2002 ___________ 16.2 _ 27.8 _ 5.2 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 18.0
DOCARCH ____________ 16.1 _ 30.3 _ 4.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 17.3
MrSkinner ____________ 16.0 _ 30.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0
Cornerstonelad ________16.0 _ 28.9 _ 4.8 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 19.4
Sunflower3 ___________ 16.0 _ 28.2 _ 5.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 17.0
___ Con Sensus _______ 16.0 _ 28.6 _ 4.6 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 17.9
Dasa29 ______________ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 17.5
Joe Public ____________ 15.9 _ 33.2 _ 3.6 _ 121 _ 088 ___ 19.9
Bsal _________________ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 090 ___ 17.2
Dacogawa ____________ 15.8 _ 32.4 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 090 ___ 19.2
Jpmarn _______________15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.8 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 18.5
esposito ___ (-2) _______15.8 _ 28.0 _ 4.1 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 18.5
waterways ____________ 15.8 _ 27.9 _ 5.1 _ 113 _ 089 ___ 18.9
Gonzo _______________ 15.7 _ 25.2 _ 4.9 _ 128 _ 076 ___ 16.2
M.T. Cranium __________15.6 _ 26.0 _ 5.5 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 17.0
Pauldry ______________ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 119 _ 096 ___ 18.7
___ NormaL ___________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.8
Adam240610_ (-2) _____ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 17.5
Mr. stonewall _ (-1) _____ 15.2 _ 29.8 _ 4.6 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 16.7
____________________________________
6 -
Updated annual scoring January to July 2023
Rank (prev)_FORECASTER __ J __F __M __A __M __J __J __TOTAL __ Best 6/7 (rank) ((prev rank 5/6))
_ 00.8 (01.5)_ Con Sensus __ 65 _74 _58 _64 _66 _68 _60 __ 455 ___ 397 _ (5.4) _ (2.9)
_ 01 (02) _sryanbruen ______46 _76 _68 _55 _70 _76 _55 __ 446 ___ 400 _ ( t2 ) _ ( t1 )
_ 02 (07) _adam240610 ____ 61 _61 _65 _57 _62 _72 _67 __ 445 ___ 388 _ ( 7 ) _ ( 8 )
_ 03 (09) _M.T. Cranium_____67 _70 _44 _54 _61 _59 _89 __ 444 ___ 400 _ ( t2 ) _ ( 9 )
_ 04 (05) _Sunflower3 ______47 _69 _39 _84 _72 _55 _73 __ 439 ___ 400 _ ( t2 ) _ ( t4 )
_ 05 (01) _Kindred Spirit ____58 _74 _74 _62 _54 _77 _37 __ 436 ___ 399 _ ( 5 ) _ ( t1 )
_ 06 (06) _tae laidir ________38 _64 _72 _80 _68 _43 _64 __ 429 ___ 391 _ ( 6 ) _ ( t4 )
_t07 (07) _Appledrop _______53 _64 _73 _64 _33 _72 _56 __ 415 ___ 382 _ ( 8 ) _ ( 6 )
_t07 (04) _DOCARCH _______77 _67 _69 _48 _51 _58 _45 __ 415 ___ 371 _ ( 9 ) _ ( 7 )
_ 09 (14)_Gonzo ___________ 46 _69 _52 _58 _60 _44 _84 __ 413 ___ 369 _ (10) _ (17)
(9.4)_(9.0) _ NormaL ______67 _44 _76 _77 _42 _38 _65 __ 409 ___ 371 _ (t9)_(10.8)
_ 10 (12) _Artane2002 (6/7)__50 _71 _78 _--- _71 _66 _68 __ 404 ___ 404 _ ( 1 ) _ ( 3 )
_ 11 (10) _Pauldry _________ 50 _62 _66 _50 _48 _64 _56 __ 396 ___ 348 _ (t17) _ (14)
_ 12 (09) _Dacogawa _______ 63 _58 _54 _51 _39 _79 _51 __ 395 ___ 356 _ (13) _ (11)
_ 13 (13) _Bsal ____________ 71 _49 _42 _68 _46 _54 _62 __ 392 ___ 350 _ (t15)_ (16)
_ 14 (11)_200 motels _______ 41 _74 _38 _66 _68 _50 _51 __ 388 ___ 350 _ (t15) _ (12)
_ 15 (18) _ waterways ______ 52 _27 _41 _76 _53 _59 _68 __ 376 ___ 349 _ (t17) _ (18)
_ 16 (20) _Rameire _________ 10 _68 _52 _53 _61 _57 _69 __ 370 ___ 360 _(t11) _ (15)
_ 17 (15) _MrSkinner ________25 _69 _34 _53 _72 _65 _47 __ 365 ___ 340 _ (19) _ (13)
_t18 (16) _Dasa29 __________61 _54 _42 _45 _63 _51 _44 __ 360 ___ 318 _ (21) _ (20)
_t18 (17) _john mac (6/7)____58 _47 _71 _72 _61 _--- _51 __ 360 ___ 360 _(t11) _ (10)
_ 20 (21) _Cornerstonelad ___ 49 _61 _25 _58 _56 _49 _56 __ 355 ___ 330 _ (20) _ (21)
_ 21 (23)_ Jpmarn _________ 61 _49 _50 _51 _--- _69 _70 __ 350 ___ 350 _ (t15)_ (19)
_ 22 (19) _Joe Public _______ 46 _48 _53 _63 _42 _54 _41 __ 347 ___ 307 _ (23) _ (22)
_ 23 (22) _ Mr.stonewall _____45 _30 _54 _48 _48 _57 _61 __ 343 ___ 313 _ (22) _ (23)
_ 24 (25)_esposito (5/7) _____54 _57 _45 _--- _--- _49 _50 __ 255 ___ 255 _ (24) _ (25)
(above score for esposito will compare more favorably after two scores dropped from rest of field after Sep)
================== above can still qualify for best 10/12 =====================
_ 25 (24) _WolfeEire (4/7)____ 76 _47 _59 _52 _--- _--- _ ---__ 234 ___ 234 _ (---) _ (24)
_ 26 (26)_Rebelbrowser(1/7)__ 78__--- __---__--- __--- __--- _ --- ___ 78
_ 27 (27) _ JCX BXC (1/7) ___ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- __ 65 _ --- __ 65
_ 28 (28) _Aah yes (1/7) ____ --- __--- __---__--- __ 60 __--- _ --- ___ 60
_ 29 (29) _ sdanseo (1/7) ___ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- __ 59 _ --- ___ 59
_ 30 (30) _ Danno (1/7) ____ 58 __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- __ --- _ --- ___ 58
_ 31 (31) _ Tazio (1/7) _____ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ --- __ 51 _ --- ___ 51
___________________________________
___ Category scoring totals January -July ____
FORECASTER ___ IMT _MAX _MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS __ TOTAL (total before late pens)
Max Possible ____175 _140 _140 _105 _ 70 __ 70 ____ 700
_ Con Sensus ___ 119 _ 91 _ 79 _ 66 _ 52 __ 48 ____ 455
sryanbruen _____ 123 _ 85 _ 86 _ 67 _ 47 __ 40 _____446 (448)
adam240610____ 129 _ 73 _ 85 _ 67 _ 50 __ 44 ____ 445 (448)
M.T. Cranium ____125 _ 47 _ 94 _ 74 _ 55 __ 49 ____ 444
Sunflower3 _____127 _ 73 _ 79 _ 63 _ 50 __ 47 ____ 439
Kindred Spirit ___ 112 _ 90 _ 78 _ 60 _ 43 __ 53 ____ 436
Tae laidir _______ 139 _ 63 _ 87 _ 42 _ 51 __ 47 ____ 429
Appledrop _______124 _ 55 _ 74 _ 67 _ 58 __ 37 ____ 415
DOCARCH _______ 96 _ 79 _ 80 _ 73 _ 50 __ 37 _____415
Gonzo __________125 _ 79 _ 47 _ 66 _ 47 __ 51 ____ 413 (415)
_ NormaL _______86 _ 79 _ 76 _ 70 _ 48 __ 50 ____ 409
Artane2002 (6/7) _ 105 _ 76 _ 79 _ 63 _ 45 __ 38 ____ 404 (406)
Pauldry _________ 129 _ 67 _ 44 _ 81 _ 46 __ 29 ____ 396
Dacogawa _______ 125 _ 71 _ 52 _ 53 _ 53 __ 41 ____ 395
Bsal ____________111 _ 68 _ 56 _ 68 _ 52 __ 46 ____ 392 (401)
200 motels ______ 121 _ 69 _ 63 _ 68 _ 47 __ 34 ____ 388 (402)
waterways _______ 96 _ 71 _ 59 _ 48 _ 56 __ 46 ____ 375
Rameire _________107 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 _ 49 __ 52 ____ 370 (398)
MrSkinner _______118 _ 61 _ 58 _ 57 _ 39 __ 34 ____ 365 (367)
Dasa29 _________ 101 _ 55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 50 __ 46 ____ 360
john mac (6/7) ____93 _ 64 _ 73 _ 58 _ 43 __ 30 ____ 360 (361)
Cornerstonelad ___115 _ 76 _ 54 _ 47 _ 38 __ 42 ____ 355 (372)
Jpmarn ___(6/7)___96_ 40 _ 74 _ 59 _ 41 __ 40 ____ 350
Joe Public _______114 _ 81 _ 33 _ 57 _ 44 __ 22 ____ 347 (351)
Mr.stonewall _____107 _ 50 _ 68 _ 34 _ 43 __ 43 ____ 343 (345)
esposito __ (5/7)___85 _ 59 _ 14 _ 42 _ 31 __ 26 ____ 255 (257)
WolfeEire (4/7) ____61 _ 35 _ 49 _ 43 _ 24 __ 22 ____ 234
Rebelbrowser (1/7)_15 _ 16 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 78
JCX BXC ___ (1/7)_ 25 _ 12 _ 16 _ 00 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 65
aah yes____(1/7)__17 _ 12 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 __ 07 _____ 60 (63)
sdanseo ___(1/7) _ 14 _ 14 _ 18 _ 01 _ 07 __ 05 _____ 59
Danno ____ (1/7) _ 13 _ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 __ 08 _____ 58
Tazio _____ (1/7) _ 21 _ 00 _ 17 _ 07 _ 04 __ 02 _____ 51
___________________________________
In category scoring (Jan to July totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.
(ranks are given to top three forecasters, regardless of position of NormaL or Con Sensus as noted below)
IMT _ two tied for second place, no third place awarded.
MAX _ Con Sensus would be first alone.
MIN, PRC, SUN, BONUS _ Three ranks without ties.
Order in category scoring is same as determined by total scores in annual scoring summary above this table.
Not all have any late penalties, but those who do will have their contest score (after penalties) in the TOTAL column and the total before penalties (the sum of the category scores) in brackets and italic font, after their contest score.
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