July 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average mean temp for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon) for July 2023. The 1981-2010 average is 15.5.
2. Predict the MAX temp at any of the 25 official locations listed daily on the met-ie website.
3. Predict the MIN (details same as above)
4. Predict the PRC (percentage of normal rainfall at eleven locations including the five in part one above and also Malin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown, Cork and Valentia.)
5. Predict the SUN (percentage of normal at six locations around Ireland).
6. BONUS _ Predict the highest daily minimum at any of the 25 locations reporting daily.

NOTE: I received an early forecast from Artane2002 which was provided because of an expected absence from the internet now, and I let them know what bonus question I would use. Meanwhile my forecast and NormaL are as follows:

M.T. Cranium _________15.6 _ 26.0 _ 5.5 _ 120 _ 085 __ 17.0

NormaL _____________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 17.8

(will add Artane2002 to the table of forecasts, from what I recall the forecast is a bit warmer than mine but was made two weeks ago -- it may get revised in the thread anyway).

pauldry

Pauldry________15.5_ 28.7_ 3.8_ 119 _ 96 __ 18.7

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad_______16__28.9__4.8__111__90__19.4

Gonzo

Gonzo _____________ 15.7 _ 25.2 _ 4.9 _ 128 _ 76 __ 16.2

Joe Public

Joe Public________15.9_ 33.2_ 3.6_ 121 _ 88 __ 19.9

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________ 16.2 _ 27.8 _ 5.2 _ 110 _ 90 __ 18.0

Bsal

Bsal _____________ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 90 __ 17.2

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____________ 16.0 _ 28.2 _ 5.5 _ 115 _ 95 __ 17.0

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____________ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 4.7 _ 110 _ 95 __ 17.8

200motels

200motels------------ 16.5 _ 29.6 _ 4.8 _ 106 _ 92 __ 17.9

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________16.1 _ 30.3 _ 4.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 17.3

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 16.8 ___ 29.4 ___ 4.2 ___ 95 ___ 110 ___ 17.9

mrskinner

Skinner____16____30____4____100____100____17

dasa29

Dasa29 _________16 _ 28 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 110 __ 17.5

appledrop

Appledrop___16.2__28.9__4.2__125__88_18.2

waterways

waterways ___ 15.8 ___ 27.9 ___ 5.1___ 113 ___ 89 ___ 18.9

dacogawa

Dacogawa___15.8__32.4__3.9__155__90__19.2

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___________ 16.6 _ 28.9 _ 5.4 _ 131 _ 92 __ 18.5

John mac

john mac_____________ 16.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.3 _ 110 _ 105 __ 18.3

cant miss 2 months in a row :)

rameire

Rameire_____________ 16.6 _ 27. 5_ 5._ 115 _ 95 __ 16.5

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _____________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.8 _ 135 _ 85 __ 18.5

mr.stonewall

Mr.stonewall___15.2__29.8__4.6___88__90__16.7

adam240610

Adam40610____________ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 90 __ 17.5

esposito

esposito _________15.8_ 28.0_ 4.1_ 095 _ 100 __ 18.5

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for July 2023

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ BONUS (high min)

Kindred Spirit __________16.8 _ 29.4 _ 4.2 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 17.9

Tae laidir ______________16.6 _ 28.9 _ 5.4 _ 131 _ 092 ___ 18.5

Rameire ______________ 16.6 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.5

200motels ____________ 16.5 _ 29.6 _ 4.8 _ 106 _ 092 ___ 17.9

john mac _____________ 16.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.3 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 18.3

sryanbruen ___________ 16.4 _ 28.6 _ 4.7 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 17.8

Appledrop ____________ 16.2 _ 28.9 _ 4.2 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 18.2

Artane2002 ___________ 16.2 _ 27.8 _ 5.2 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 18.0

DOCARCH ____________ 16.1 _ 30.3 _ 4.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 17.3

MrSkinner ____________ 16.0 _ 30.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

Cornerstonelad ________16.0 _ 28.9 _ 4.8 _ 111 _ 090 ___ 19.4

Sunflower3 ___________ 16.0 _ 28.2 _ 5.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 17.0

___ Con Sensus _______ 16.0 _ 28.6 _ 4.6 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 17.9

Dasa29 ______________ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 17.5

Joe Public ____________ 15.9 _ 33.2 _ 3.6 _ 121 _ 088 ___ 19.9

Bsal _________________ 15.9 _ 28.0 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 090 ___ 17.2

Dacogawa ____________ 15.8 _ 32.4 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 090 ___ 19.2

Jpmarn _______________15.8 _ 28.5 _ 4.8 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 18.5

esposito ___ (-2) _______15.8 _ 28.0 _ 4.1 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 18.5

waterways ____________ 15.8 _ 27.9 _ 5.1 _ 113 _ 089 ___ 18.9

Gonzo _______________ 15.7 _ 25.2 _ 4.9 _ 128 _ 076 ___ 16.2

M.T. Cranium __________15.6 _ 26.0 _ 5.5 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 17.0

Pauldry ______________ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 119 _ 096 ___ 18.7

___ NormaL ___________15.5 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.8

Adam240610_ (-2) _____ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 17.5

Mr. stonewall _ (-1) _____ 15.2 _ 29.8 _ 4.6 _ 088 _ 090 ___ 16.7

____________________________________

General consensus seems to be a warm July, moist and cloudy; a small faction are looking for an episode of extreme warm temps.

pauldry

Temperature in Pheonix Park 17 to 19c since midnight. Could be a max min contender.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120816564#Comment_120816564

Really surprised by that, such a bad start to July, we have been lucky to get 17 -19 as max value every day never mind max min!

pauldry

In the end Pheonix Park cooled down around 10pm so didn't set the High

Think it's Moore Park at 16.6c

Valentia was 19c at 1am but cold front meany it was 13c by 6am today

M.T. Cranium

After first week of July ...

IMT on 14.6, 0.3 below normal for the interval.

MAX 24.1, and MIN not tracked yet.

PRC 170% of normal.

SUN 84% of normal.

The high minimum so far is 16.6 C at Moorepark on 7th.

(keep in mind that the 24h day for max and min runs from 0100 to 0100 as it is 00z to 00z)

M.T. Cranium

The MIN appears to be 6.9 at Mullingar on 5th (Dublin came close on Sunday with 7.3 so I checked back).

Our highest MIN forecasts are 5.5 (from Sunflower3 and MTC) with tae laidir at 5.4.

The least extreme MAX forecasts were 25.2 from Gonzo and 26.0 from MTC and 27.5 from Rameire and Adam240610.

Tae laidir

And whilst we're on extremes, Dacogawa has the highest PRC @ 155.