URC 2023/24

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121854478#Comment_121854478

The loss to Glasgow is a hammerblow for them in that regard. they have a tough run-in.

Neil3030

If Wasps went bust with substantially greater TV revenue in the GP, how on earth would they be sustainable in the URC? Without central support, pretty much every club in the URC would be dead.

Unless there was a broader plan to totally reset, move to a smaller ground (back in London?), put more emphasis on academy/youth players, possibly even get the RFU to offer support.....?

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121854718#Comment_121854718

Would be interesting if the RFU decided to tell PRL to go pound sand and invested in some centrally controlled teams. Do the RFU or the PRL control which English teams are entered for the HC.?

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121854778#Comment_121854778

I suspect it'd be combination of both (though not sure of the weighting). From Wiki:

EPCR has nine stakeholders – the six tier 1 unions whose national teams play in the Six Nations Championship, and the club bodies that represent the English, French, Scottish, Irish, Italian, Welsh and South African clubs in their respective leagues.

conncussed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121854778#Comment_121854778

I think the RFU and PRL have already done their deal. They're moving 25 players to "Enhanced EPS" deals - hybrid central contracts part funded by the player's club. Maro Itoje's new deal was the first of these.

conncussed

It doesn't surprise me that Wasps are talking to the URC but I don't think anything will come of it. Wasps have no money, no stadium, and would likely need to relocate their fanbase yet again to revive the club. They'd need one hell of a multi year cash injection from a wealthy benefactor to make them viable again.

The media coverage of this appears to come from one of the Welsh regions making it public to put pressure on the WRU, and comments from the chairman of Coventry Rugby who have a vested interest in not having Wasps playing Premiership or Championship rugby in their locality.

phog

What will it take this year?

We've crunched the numbers and looked at the probabilities, and as things stand, 49 points is the magic number to make the playoffs for URC 3 this year, one point more than last season and one point less than the season before that.

As for the top four, 57 points is the target if you want that all-important home advantage.

https://twitter.com/URCOfficial/status/1765369121380655498?t=a7IdWAo-7t5QNTcM_yhEnw&s=19

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121860472#Comment_121860472

All teams have 7 games to play so an absolute maximum of 35 points can be earned, this would assume BP wins in all matches. Personally I think it's good to see one team not running away with it as we had in the past

Leinster 44 - 5 for playoffs, 13 for top 4

Bulls 40 - 9 for playoffs, 17 for top 4

Glasgow Warriors 40 - 9 for playoffs, 17 for top 4

Edinburgh 34 - 15 for playoffs, 23 for top 4

Ulster 34 - 15 for playoffs, 23 for top 4

Munster 34 - 15 for playoffs, 23 for top 4

Connacht 33 - 16 for playoffs, 24 for top 4

Benetton 32 - 17 for playoffs, 25 for top 4

Stormers 30 - 19 for playoffs, 27 for top 4

Ospreys 30 - 19 for playoffs, 27 for top 4

Lions 29 - 20 for playoffs, 28 for top 4

Cardiff 22 - - 27 for playoffs, 35 for top 4

Zebre Parma 14 - 35 for playoffs, can't make top 4

Scarlets 12 - can't make playoffs or top 4

Dragons 11 - can't make playoffs or top 4

Sharks 10 - can't make playoffs or top 4

Jump_In_Jack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883257#Comment_121883257

I’d expect Cardiff to lose their next 2 matches, so will be out of the running soon.

I think the top 3 are almost guaranteed to pick up what they need to ensure top 8.

That leaves 8 teams fighting it out for 5 spots, with only 5 points separating 4th-11th.

Makes for a very intriguing set of fixtures coming up.

If I were to call it from here, I’d expect Lions, Ospreys and Benetton to drop outside the top 8.

pickarooney

The league is in the best shape it's ever been in terms of quality and competition.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883257#Comment_121883257

Yes, Zebre are one lost game away from not being involved and Cardiff are 2

Digifriendly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121883491#Comment_121883491

Why Benetton to drop out?

Burkie1203

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121907838#Comment_121907838

The have 4 fixtures at home the can expect wins and scarlets away is another potential win depending on who they have available

Digifriendly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121907852#Comment_121907852

Surely that means they're favourites to be in the top 8 rather than drop out?

Burkie1203

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121908710#Comment_121908710

Yeah I agree

Jump_In_Jack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121907838#Comment_121907838

I ran through the fixtures and made an estimate of how I expect the fixtures to go.

FWIW this is what I got:

Glasgow 70

Bulls 69

Leinster 67

Edinburgh 60

Munster 60

Ulster 59

Stormers 58

Connacht 57

Benetton 56

Ospreys 44

Lions 39

One key fixture is Benetton V Connacht, I have Connacht winning that away, if that fixture were to go the other way it could knock Connacht out and Benetton would finish top 8.

There are a lot of possibilities though so this is just a bit of fun speculation on my part.

Homesick Alien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121909355#Comment_121909355

Where do you see Leinster slipping up?

Jump_In_Jack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121912041#Comment_121912041

Away to Stormers and away to Ulster. Also have them not getting try bonus points against Bulls at home, or Lions away. Tough to call but that's just my best guess. Of course Leinster are capable of beating Ulster and Stormers away, just the way the table is so condensed I could see teams really targetting their home matches as must win, and not sure if Leinster will have full strength sides particularly in South Africa.

Isn't it fascinating though at this stage, Munster have a lot to do ensure top 8, even this far out can say that Munster must win the game against Ospreys away, and must get a bonus point win against Cardiff at home, as after that have to tour South Africa Bulls and Lions, and then face the other three provinces back to back. Not an easy path to the playoffs but I think they will do it.

Ulster should pick up points against Sharks, but then Bulls away will be tough, then Cardiff and Benetton at home are must win, and Scarlets away must win, and then Leinster and Munster to finish off will be 50/50, I think they'll win at home to Leinster but will be up against it away to Munster.

Connacht have a mixed bag, they have to beat Lions this weekend, then Benetton away could be a decider to qualify top 8 in my opinion, and then should be getting maximum points from Zebre and Dragons, and then Munster away, Stormers at home and Leinster away will be a very tough end to the league stage. That just really puts pressure on the next few matches, wouldn't like to be facing Leinster away on the last round needing a win, but that shows how competitive the league is this year.

Jump_In_Jack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121912041#Comment_121912041

Stormers and Ulster, and not getting bonus point wins over Bulls and Lions.

Jacovs

Ardagh Glass is part of a consortium that just bought 74% shares in WP Rugby (Stormers).

Podge_irl

The Ulster match is the second last game. If it looks like it comes down to that for a top 2 finish I'd be amazed if Leinster don't go all out and win.

Jump_In_Jack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121916335#Comment_121916335

That's true, but also Ulster will need that win to stay in the top 8, so lots of pressure and Ulster being at home I'd fancy them to win.

Burkie1203

Scarlets 3-10 Benetton after 12 min

Burkie1203

Busby very generous to scarlets on their lineouts

3-13 @ 38 min

realhorrorshow

Stormers outside backs are such a joy to watch. Didn't realise they'd signed Simelane, very smart pickup for them.

Jacovs

Sharks beat Ulster today, and Stormers doing demolition job on Edinburgh. Travel maybe starting to take its toll on teams.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121931057#Comment_121931057

Or teams might be saving themselves for the upcoming EPCR games

AdamD

We get some amount of complaints during the 6N about too many Leinster players getting picked for Ireland squads, but if you actually watch the other provinces right now..

Cookiemunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121931453#Comment_121931453

Neither team is guaranteed Champions Cup next season. You don't throw URC games for a game two weeks away.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121931627#Comment_121931627

For sure.

Bonus-point wins away, built on a chop-tackling masterclass by Hodnett, and quality full-back play by Haley.

😎