June 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (13.6 is the average 1981-2010 value).

2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum one-day rainfall amount (mm) at any location reporting in "yesterday's weather" on met-ie website.

(date and location not required)

Deadline 0300h on Thursday, 1st of June. Late penalties one point for every four hours after deadline, and one point for every hour after 1500h 2nd June.

M.T. Cranium _______ 14.7 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 23.5

NormaL ___________ 13.6 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0

Will post a reminder of this after table of entries: You can enter a seasonal tropical storm (incl hurricanes) forecast contest here if you wish ... predict the numbers of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes (the familiar count issued by the National hurricane center in the U.S.), and your entry goes into a contest that I host on American Weather Forum along with any others submitted here and also on Net-weather (UK forum) so it's an international contest for sure, already about two dozen entries on American Weather Forum. The official NOAA forecast (median value) is 14.5, 7.0 and 2.5 ... UK Met Office saying 20. 11, 5. My forecast is 19, 12, 4. Another expert forecast is from CSU at 13/6/2. Many but not all experts are thinking that the developing El Nino will suppress this year's outcome.

Will post a reminder for contest partly because three people already entered this June contest before I added the invitation. I also posted a summer maximum contest on UK Net-weather forum (for UK maximum value). We will probably confine our Irish contests to actual heat waves as they appear.

Tazio

Tazio _______ 15.2 _ 26.5 _ 1.75 _ 065 _ 100 ___ 12.5

sunflower3

Sunflower3___________ 14.9_ 26.6 _ 2.3 _ 72_ 111___ 18.0

pauldry

Pauldry___________ 15.0_ 28.2_ 3.0 _ 100_ 101___ 46.0

200motels

200motels----------- 14.7_ 25.2_ 2.6 _ 82_ 103___ 11.0

sdanseo

Been a while, but sure why not.

sdanseo _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 2.3 _ 047 _115 ___ 20.1

dasa29

Dasa29___________ 14.5_ 27.5 _ 1.5 _ 60_ 110___ 20.0

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 14.1 _ 28.1 _ 2.3 _ 076 _ 124 ___ 13.2

esposito

Esposito _______ 14.4 _ 29.4_ 3.8_ 069_ 112___ 20.6

Gonzo

Gonzo _______ 14.5 _ 27.3_ 3.2_ 047_ 118___ 23.4

rameire

Rameire___________ 14.4_ 27.4_ 2.8 _ 87_ 104___ 22.2

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.1° ___ 28.5 ___ 3.1 ___ 85 ___ 115 ___ 32

waterways

waterways___________ 14.8_ 28.7_ 4.2 _ 57_ 131___ 27.0

dacogawa

Dacogawa___________ 15.2_ 29.5_ 2.8 _ 77_ 128___ 33.3

Joe Public

Joe Public __________ 15.3_ 27.6_ 3.4 _ 99_ 99___ 56

appledrop

Appledrop___15.2__27.9__2.5___70___120__26

mrskinner

Skinner______14.6____26.9____2.1____91____101____28

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall ___14.9__28.1__2.9____55__112__19

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___________ 14.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.8 _ 66 _ 118 ___ 37.5

Tropical storm (incl hurricanes) forecast contest: 18/9/4

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ___________ 15.1 _ 29.5 _ 1.9_59 _ 115 ___ 21

Atlantic Hurricane Season 14/ 7/ 3

Bsal

Bsal ___________ 14.1 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 87 _ 98 ___ 26

adam240610

Adam240610__15.1__28.0__2.5___74___120__25

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___________ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 200.0

sryanbruen

My first ever late entry.. I blame the nice weather.

sryanbruen ___________ 14.9 _ 28.3 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 36.0

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for June 2023

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 24h rainfall (mm)

JCX BXC _____ (-5) ___ 16.6 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 020 _ 140 __ 15.0

Cornerstonelad _(-10) _ 15.5 _ 29.1 _ 3.9 _ 035 _ 150 _____ 35.0

Joe Public ____________15.3 _ 27.6 _ 3.4 _ 099 _ 099 _______ 56.0

Dacogawa____________ 15.2 _ 29.5 _ 2.8 _ 077 _ 128 ____ 33.3

Appledrop ____________15.2 _ 27.9 _ 2.5 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 26.0

Tazio ________________15.2 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 065 _ 100 __ 12.5

Jpmarn ______________15.1 _ 29.5 _ 1.9 _ 059 _ 115 ___ 21.0

Kindred Spirit _________15.1 _ 28.5 _ 3.1 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 32.0

Adam240610 ___(-1) __ 15.1 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 074 _ 120 ___ 25.0

Pauldry ______________15.0 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 46.0

sryanbruen ____ (-2) __ 14.9 _ 28.3 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 36.0

Mr stonewall __________14.9 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 055 _ 112 ___ 19.0

Sunflower3___________ 14.9 _ 26.6 _ 2.3 _ 072 _ 111 ___ 18.0

___ Con Sensus _______14.9 _ 28.0 _ 2.6 _ 071 _ 115 ___ 24.2

Tae laidir ____________ 14.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.8 _ 066 _ 118 ____ 37.5

waterways____________14.8 _ 28.7 _ 4.2 _ 057 _ 131 ___ 27.0

M.T. Cranium _________ 14.7 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 23.5

200motels ___________ 14.7 _ 25.2 _ 2.6 _ 082 _ 103 __ 11.0

MrSkinner ____________14.6 _ 26.9 _ 2.1 _ 091 _ 101 ___ 28.0

sdanseo _____________ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 2.3 _ 047 _ 115 ___ 20.1

Artane2002 ___ (-2) ___ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 115 ________________ 200.0

Dasa29 ______________14.5 _ 27.5 _ 1.5 _ 060 _ 110 ___ 20.0

Gonzo _______________14.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 047 _ 118 ___ 23.4

Esposito _____________ 14.4 _ 29.4 _ 3.8 _ 069 _ 112 ___ 20.6

Rameire _____________ 14.4 _ 27.4 _ 2.8 _ 087 _ 104 ___ 22.2

DOCARCH ____________14.1 _ 28.1 _ 2.3 _ 076 _ 124 __ 13.2

Bsal ________________ 14.1 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 087 _ 098 ___ 26.0

___ NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 40.0

____________________________________

Max 24h rainfall predictions are shown in a staggered format to illustrate the range. Max (200.0) would be over by the right margin to scale.

Notes: Max 25.3 (Shan) 5.5 (Gurt) on 1st ... 0.1 mm Malin ... avg sun 14.1h

Thanks for entering multi-forum tropical seasonal contest (if you did), will provide more info on this after deadline on 5th. Anyone else interested in entering can post here or send me a PM. See original post in thread for more information on this separate contest.

JCX BXC

JCX BXC ___________ 16.6 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 020 _ 140 ___ 15.0

With the late penalty you may as well take a gamble!

Interesting to note nobody predicts a high of 30°c or higher.

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad______15.5_____29.1____3.9_______35________150___35

The holiers have wrecked my time awareness.

M.T. Cranium

I added in two late forecasts above. No absolute cutoff but we are into 1 point per hour increases now, and I believe all current regular entrants are on board for the cruise into the great unknown. Con Sensus changed only a bit, as most median values were near a cluster of several similar forecasts.

I would like to know more about the 200 mm rainfall -- that will be quite a scoring dilemma as the bonus does not work from the hammer system used for all other scoring.

pauldry

Min of around 2c in Mt Chillin last night !!

M.T. Cranium

For those who entered the three-forum tropical season contest, here's a link to the forecasts, and anyone else is welcome to join in, deadline is 06z Monday. (no late entries or late penalties, just a cutoff for entries on this one) ...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/page/2/#comment-6925360

Tae laidir

Yes, Mt. Dillon 2.1 yesterday.