June 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (13.6 is the average 1981-2010 value).

2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum one-day rainfall amount (mm) at any location reporting in "yesterday's weather" on met-ie website.

(date and location not required)

Deadline 0300h on Thursday, 1st of June. Late penalties one point for every four hours after deadline, and one point for every hour after 1500h 2nd June.

M.T. Cranium _______ 14.7 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 23.5

NormaL ___________ 13.6 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0

Will post a reminder of this after table of entries: You can enter a seasonal tropical storm (incl hurricanes) forecast contest here if you wish ... predict the numbers of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes (the familiar count issued by the National hurricane center in the U.S.), and your entry goes into a contest that I host on American Weather Forum along with any others submitted here and also on Net-weather (UK forum) so it's an international contest for sure, already about two dozen entries on American Weather Forum. The official NOAA forecast (median value) is 14.5, 7.0 and 2.5 ... UK Met Office saying 20. 11, 5. My forecast is 19, 12, 4. Another expert forecast is from CSU at 13/6/2. Many but not all experts are thinking that the developing El Nino will suppress this year's outcome.

Will post a reminder for contest partly because three people already entered this June contest before I added the invitation. I also posted a summer maximum contest on UK Net-weather forum (for UK maximum value). We will probably confine our Irish contests to actual heat waves as they appear.

Tazio

Tazio _______ 15.2 _ 26.5 _ 1.75 _ 065 _ 100 ___ 12.5

sunflower3

Sunflower3___________ 14.9_ 26.6 _ 2.3 _ 72_ 111___ 18.0

pauldry

Pauldry___________ 15.0_ 28.2_ 3.0 _ 100_ 101___ 46.0

200motels

200motels----------- 14.7_ 25.2_ 2.6 _ 82_ 103___ 11.0

sdanseo

Been a while, but sure why not.

sdanseo _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 2.3 _ 047 _115 ___ 20.1

dasa29

Dasa29___________ 14.5_ 27.5 _ 1.5 _ 60_ 110___ 20.0

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 14.1 _ 28.1 _ 2.3 _ 076 _ 124 ___ 13.2

esposito

Esposito _______ 14.4 _ 29.4_ 3.8_ 069_ 112___ 20.6

Gonzo

Gonzo _______ 14.5 _ 27.3_ 3.2_ 047_ 118___ 23.4

rameire

Rameire___________ 14.4_ 27.4_ 2.8 _ 87_ 104___ 22.2

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.1° ___ 28.5 ___ 3.1 ___ 85 ___ 115 ___ 32

waterways

waterways___________ 14.8_ 28.7_ 4.2 _ 57_ 131___ 27.0

dacogawa

Dacogawa___________ 15.2_ 29.5_ 2.8 _ 77_ 128___ 33.3

Joe Public

Joe Public __________ 15.3_ 27.6_ 3.4 _ 99_ 99___ 56

appledrop

Appledrop___15.2__27.9__2.5___70___120__26

mrskinner

Skinner______14.6____26.9____2.1____91____101____28

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall ___14.9__28.1__2.9____55__112__19

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___________ 14.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.8 _ 66 _ 118 ___ 37.5

Tropical storm (incl hurricanes) forecast contest: 18/9/4

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ___________ 15.1 _ 29.5 _ 1.9_59 _ 115 ___ 21

Atlantic Hurricane Season 14/ 7/ 3

Bsal

Bsal ___________ 14.1 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 87 _ 98 ___ 26

adam240610

Adam240610__15.1__28.0__2.5___74___120__25

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___________ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 200.0

sryanbruen

My first ever late entry.. I blame the nice weather.

sryanbruen ___________ 14.9 _ 28.3 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 36.0

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for June 2023

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 24h rainfall (mm)

JCX BXC _____ (-5) ___ 16.6 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 020 _ 140 __ 15.0

Cornerstonelad _(-10) _ 15.5 _ 29.1 _ 3.9 _ 035 _ 150 _____ 35.0

Joe Public ____________15.3 _ 27.6 _ 3.4 _ 099 _ 099 _______ 56.0

Dacogawa____________ 15.2 _ 29.5 _ 2.8 _ 077 _ 128 ____ 33.3

Appledrop ____________15.2 _ 27.9 _ 2.5 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 26.0

Tazio ________________15.2 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 065 _ 100 __ 12.5

Jpmarn ______________15.1 _ 29.5 _ 1.9 _ 059 _ 115 ___ 21.0

Kindred Spirit _________15.1 _ 28.5 _ 3.1 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 32.0

Adam240610 ___(-1) __ 15.1 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 074 _ 120 ___ 25.0

Pauldry ______________15.0 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 46.0

sryanbruen ____ (-2) __ 14.9 _ 28.3 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 36.0

Mr stonewall __________14.9 _ 28.1 _ 2.9 _ 055 _ 112 ___ 19.0

Sunflower3___________ 14.9 _ 26.6 _ 2.3 _ 072 _ 111 ___ 18.0

___ Con Sensus _______14.9 _ 28.0 _ 2.6 _ 071 _ 115 ___ 24.2

Tae laidir ____________ 14.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.8 _ 066 _ 118 ____ 37.5

waterways____________14.8 _ 28.7 _ 4.2 _ 057 _ 131 ___ 27.0

M.T. Cranium _________ 14.7 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 23.5

200motels ___________ 14.7 _ 25.2 _ 2.6 _ 082 _ 103 __ 11.0

MrSkinner ____________14.6 _ 26.9 _ 2.1 _ 091 _ 101 ___ 28.0

sdanseo _____________ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 2.3 _ 047 _ 115 ___ 20.1

Artane2002 ___ (-2) ___ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 115 ________________ 200.0

Dasa29 ______________14.5 _ 27.5 _ 1.5 _ 060 _ 110 ___ 20.0

Gonzo _______________14.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 047 _ 118 ___ 23.4

Esposito _____________ 14.4 _ 29.4 _ 3.8 _ 069 _ 112 ___ 20.6

Rameire _____________ 14.4 _ 27.4 _ 2.8 _ 087 _ 104 ___ 22.2

DOCARCH ____________14.1 _ 28.1 _ 2.3 _ 076 _ 124 __ 13.2

Bsal ________________ 14.1 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 087 _ 098 ___ 26.0

___ NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 40.0

____________________________________

Max 24h rainfall predictions are shown in a staggered format to illustrate the range. Max (200.0) would be over by the right margin to scale.

Notes: Max 25.3 (Shan) 5.5 (Gurt) on 1st ... 0.1 mm Malin ... avg sun 14.1h

Thanks for entering multi-forum tropical seasonal contest (if you did), will provide more info on this after deadline on 5th. Anyone else interested in entering can post here or send me a PM. See original post in thread for more information on this separate contest.

JCX BXC

JCX BXC ___________ 16.6 _ 28.0 _ 2.5 _ 020 _ 140 ___ 15.0

With the late penalty you may as well take a gamble!

Interesting to note nobody predicts a high of 30°c or higher.

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad______15.5_____29.1____3.9_______35________150___35

The holiers have wrecked my time awareness.

M.T. Cranium

I added in two late forecasts above. No absolute cutoff but we are into 1 point per hour increases now, and I believe all current regular entrants are on board for the cruise into the great unknown. Con Sensus changed only a bit, as most median values were near a cluster of several similar forecasts.

I would like to know more about the 200 mm rainfall -- that will be quite a scoring dilemma as the bonus does not work from the hammer system used for all other scoring.

pauldry

Min of around 2c in Mt Chillin last night !!

M.T. Cranium

For those who entered the three-forum tropical season contest, here's a link to the forecasts, and anyone else is welcome to join in, deadline is 06z Monday. (no late entries or late penalties, just a cutoff for entries on this one) ...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/page/2/#comment-6925360

Tae laidir

Yes, Mt. Dillon 2.1 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Nice going for Mr Skinner and Artane2002 (predicted MIN 2.1), sryanbruen (2.0) and several others between 1.6 and 2.6 set to score well if that holds up.

SUN must be around 200% so far. Let's say that remains true after Monday 5th... That means to reach 120% the rest of the month only needs to average 104% of normal.

Just a reminder, today is the last day to enter the multi-forum tropical contest, no late entries, deadline is 06z tomorrow. Mr Skinner has entered by PM in addition to tae laidir and JPmarn who posted forecasts.

pauldry

Hi MT

Tried to register for that tropic contest thing on phone but no luck. No computer so here's my prediction.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 21/ 11/ 8

M.T. Cranium

So noted ... did you try to register at the Am Wx site? You would need to be a member to post.

I am sure one or two Irish and UK weather people are on there under user names that don't make it apparent who they are. I am on all three forums which keeps me busy.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT was 14.6 which is 1.8 above normal. East was a lot cooler than the west (Shannon 16.4, Casement 13.1).

MAX 25.7 MIN 2.1

PRC zero

SUN 237.5% of normal. That already guarantees an outcome of 125% if the rest of the month is merely average.

No customers yet for the Max 24h rain store, but I forgot to post that Artane2002 sent me a PM during the week to say his 200% was a typo for 20%.

Joe Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120692068#Comment_120692068

Re. Artane2002 do you mean 20mm rather than 20% ?

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120692924#Comment_120692924

Oh yes, quite hot here and the effects are showing, I meant to say 20 mm instead of 200 mm (not 20% and 200%). Well in fact Artane2002 meant to say that. I got the PM quite a while ago, and didn't post the change, also I noticed that 25.7 at Shannon went unreported in the thread (or I didn't spot it), at first I was going with MAX of 25.3 for June on 1st at Shannon in first week report, then I checked and found a 25.7 a few days ago. Looks likely to be exceeded anyway.

As I said to Artane2002 in our exchange of messages, now you've more or less guaranteed an absolute drencher some place later in the month. I don't know if 200 mm is very likely but 100 mm can fall in a heavy storm quite easily. I have seen 200 mm in a rain gauge after an all-night thunderstorm.

Tae laidir

PRC moved off Zero.

Valentia 2.3mm yesterday. Everywhere else dry!

M.T. Cranium

GFS shifted guidance for second half of month to quite wet, amounts of 70-80 mm showing up now on total rainfall charts, and looks very wet towards end of the run. Could change again though. Guidance is also generally warm, looks quite possible that June will have IMT in the 15s or even low 16s.

Tae laidir

Valentia still holding Bonus Ball.

ECMWF also points to warmth and wet final week.

pauldry

Rain today certain going to beat the whopping 2.3mm

Tae laidir

Moore Park 14.3 mm

pauldry

IMT now at Consensus value of 14.9c and only going up this week so the highest forecast of 16.6c seems it will be closest. Probably 17c West and 15c East by this time next week.

M.T. Cranium

IMT 15.5 after 12 days and likely near 16.0 after today. Oak Park at 29C 1600h, will check for max after 1800.

pauldry

28.5c in Oak Park. Wonder will that be bet? Could be.

M.T. Cranium

I am seeing 28.8 as Oak Park maximum.

pauldry

No doubt you're right MT. I just took a quick glance. Unless the last week gets quite cool this will end up as the highest June IMT on record in Ireland. If the type of weather wev had continues then a 16 to 17c June well within the realms of possibility.

Today was not as warm in Sligo and yet it was still 20c max and 14 or 15c min.

Some models show a cool end to June others as hot as now.

M.T. Cranium

I found the 28.8 report on meteociel but they aren't always final values so we'll see what's official soon. The 00z GFS run looks quite warm except for the last two or three days of June by which time IMT may be close to 16 C.

pauldry

When I searched the highest IMT values for June overall the highest I found was 15.8c but this year bar a few cold nights at the start looks much higher. Am I correct or is the highest IMT much higher than the 15.8c google and chat gpt are telling me. I think in 1989 the West had a roasting June and Knock was 16.4c that year but the overall was in the high 15s. Maybe sryan can verify.

It seems every month I'm looking up what was the hottest version of that month? !!

Jpmarn

The 28.8 degrees high at Oak Park Carlow was mentioned on the RTÉ weather bulletin after the 9 O'Clock News on TV last night.

pauldry

Yep that seems the correct one. Seems a tough one to beat too with showers bubbling up as it gets warm in most of the rest of the month. Still though any prolonged sun in the South or Midlands might do it.