Irish GE 2024: - Middle Ireland vs Rural Ireland vs United Ireland

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273700#Comment_121273700

The opposition of the time tried to outbid the govt because in 2002 when they cautioned restraint they were annihilated. The voters were as much at fault for the overheating economy as the government.

Also the financial crisis happened because of things completely unrelated to Ireland and over which we had no control. Our response to it, such as the bank guarantee, was a factor but the external circumstances were going to happen no matter what.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273704#Comment_121273704

nobody actually knows what to do next

100% this!

No one knows what to do, and they're terrified of making the decision and it being completely wrong/screw up *Cough* children's hospital *cough cough*

Like that should have been a huge win for FF/FG but its turned into a disaster.

I think that fear of not knowing what to do or how to do it is the reason thinks like DART under ground, Metro, HSR between Cork/Dub/Belfast hasn't happened. The regulation around housing/building, the health service, Military and Policing. It's frozen because of fear of getting it wrong.

It's mental.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273743#Comment_121273743

....we were in the depths of a global credit bubble, that had been in the making for years, we bought into it, all of us, in particular our political classes, we truly believed in our own bullsh1t, and we learned, or did we, that driving your economy primarily via bank created credit(including irish bank created!), and using this credit to simply inflate a property bubble, will never end well!

...we were knee deep in this, no wonder we fell hard!

...but thank god we learned our lessons, thank god we havent re-inflated our property markets, thank god!

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273794#Comment_121273794

Well we are less reliant on stamp duty and other taxes related to property now, so we are more insulated from a property collapse.

But, again, it would take a lot to convince me that inflated property prices aren't in fact the will of the voters given the percentage of voters who are in owned property and the rampant nimbyism - almost always related to fears of reduced property prices.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273791#Comment_121273791

....Italian economist mariana mazzucato talks about this in her work, we have infantilised our political processes, completed depowered the whole process, to the point, we simply dont have the resources to makes the changes that need to be made, this is also instilling fear of getting things wrong, as mazzucato says, we almost celebrate failure in the private domain, but demonise it in the public, we wont move forward if we dont embrace failures within the public domain to....we re paralyzed by this fear!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273812#Comment_121273812

...we think we have insulated ourselves, but have we really! the issues of asset bubbles has now become far more complex since 08, we now seem to have bubbles in many other asset markets, including share markets and property markets, and other markets, so have we actually insulated ourselves, really!

yes we clearly do have a major divide occurring between asset owners, and non asset owners, its time to take a good look at ourselves again, we have to stop thinking the creation of asset bubbles is the solution to our problems, cause we all eventually lose in this game!

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273860#Comment_121273860

Of course we haven't insulated ourselves. It's impossible for a small, open economy to insulate itself from the global economy.

We have diversified our tax base somewhat though not really enough.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273602#Comment_121273602

Well that is the dilemma isn't it. And of course SF are happy to surf the wave, even if they'll likely do little to fix these problems. Their numero uno desire is a crack at a border poll etc. with very unpredictable results. Historians in the future may well look back of this period of negligent government and see it as the catalyst for what is to come.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121278573#Comment_121278573

"Historians in the future may well look back of this period of negligent government and see it as the catalyst for what is to come.". You are right there. I remember back in 2005 or 2006, one or two economists uttering something about the property / credit bubble then, but none of the politicians listened.

This time, the ding dong moment for me is seeing how all the multinationals have suddenly run a mile at the utterances of Paddy Cosgrove, whose views are closely aligned with those of Sinn Fein. Google, Intel, Meta, Siemens, Volkswagen, IBM, Amazon, Stripe etc etc are all suddenly boycotting and withdrawing from his upcoming web summit, because of his political stance.

If we got a SF government, I would fear things could also change, very quickly. When we saw what happened with the web summit, why would'nt they?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273794#Comment_121273794

"we bought into it, all of us"

No we all didn't.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273794#Comment_121273794

No we didn't all buy into that guff.

But the prudent who were wary certainly paid for the greed of others afterwards.

rock22

I think it is too simplistic to link our financial crash in 2008- and the current housing crisis. Admittedly one has affected the other but not caused it. After decades of high interest rates, our access to cheap money, had us borrowing way beyond our means. Of course Banks pushed it, for their own reasons, profits, but Government did not want to regulate either. Light touch regulation saw some people I know add a €70,000 car onto their mortgage ,'because the bank thought it a good idea to get a new car with their new house'. They weren't the only couple borrowing way beyond their needs or ability to repay.

In 2010 I left Dublin and at the time the apartment I was renting was going to be vacant. The landlord expected to be burdened with a property where there was little or now demand. Around us there were a number of new apartment buildings and work had stopped on most of them. I saw the same in Galway. The feeling at that time was there would be little demand for rental property.

However later, as the economy began to improve audit became clear that there was a need , FG decided that that demand would be delivered by 'market forces' . Not just SF, but many commentators and builders said that the delivery of housing needed to be driven by government of local authorities with direct investment. There should have been no problem borrowing for such investment. This country built thousands of houses in the 50s , 60's and 70s when we had little money and the cost of borrowing was much higher. It was an ideological decision for FG and later FG/FF to leave this vital need to 'market forces' rather than state intervention. Only SF and the parties of the left, as far as I can see, are advocating direct state intervention to address the housing crisis. I have no doubt that if FF were to adopt similar policies, which they championed in the 50s-70s, they would take a large share of the centre vote. But , like FG, they are wedded to a Thatcherite/Reagonomic ideology and wont change that now. It is not in the interests of vulture funds to address the housing needs of people, it is their remit to maintain their profits. I am aware of one developer who have paused build starts early next year because they believe property is coming on to the market too fast and might cause a downward trend in prices.

As someone who now lives in rural Ireland I don't see any difference in views or worries between urban and rural. Housing is still seen as the biggest issue facing young people today. And many older voters ( and I count myself in that number) will vote to address that issue even if they are not directly affected. The current policy of the FF/FG government , relying of foreign vulture funds cannot fix the problem so more or the same has little attraction for many .

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121282461#Comment_121282461

The majority of the electorate did, which is all that really matters.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121315506#Comment_121315506

 I am aware of one developer who have paused build starts early next year because they believe property is coming on to the market too fast and might cause a downward trend in prices.

Aware how? Cause this makes pretty much no sense.

I am deeply, deeply curious as to where SF and their ilk plan on building all this housing given their fervour in opposing any building which so much as mildly inconveniences people.