Irish GE 2024: - Middle Ireland vs Rural Ireland vs United Ireland

Sam Russell

Leo has blown the starting whistle with a shout out for Middle Ireland..

Tax cuts for Middle Ireland - those that get up early in the morning. Of course, it depends on how this is structured and it has yet to be fully costed. A creation of a 30% tax band would work by giving everyone above the point when the top rate kicks in the same benefit. That would be a good way of giving to those 'who pay for everything and get nothing' - but of course they do get some things. Child allowance is untaxed for one.

Looking after Rural Ireland sounds like a good policy - if only we knew where Rural Ireland was.

It is probably everywhere in Ireland that is not Dublin where the majority of the wealth resides. Oh well, it is a good slogan, but not much else. Rural = farming - but does it? Farmers includes the par-time, dry stock farmer with 20 sucklers, the dairy guys with 300 cows, the cereal guys with 500 acres of winter barley, and the horticultural guys that are hit by the supermarkets below cost selling. Now could any Gov get all these to agree about anything but extra subsidies?

Looking for a UI - first have a Border Poll - if only.

Then we have the pursuit of a UI, but there is a problem. It is not in the gift of the Irish Gov to have a border poll and the current UK Gov will not allow one, and anyway, it is unlikely that NI would actually vote for a UI. So, the voters of NI have to be persuaded by promises of a better life in a UI. Of course, for that, a UI would require a lot of funding and there is a long queue of donors willing to dig deep (for excuses not to give).

So, the fun is starting.

Sam Russell

Latest poll results from Irish Times.

FG down, (18%), SF down, (31%), FF up (21%), SD up. (3%)

FG really doing badly.

Their tax cuts for those that get up early in the morning has not gone well for them.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/06/15/the-irish-times-poll-full-data-set/

Nody

Well it only shows the short memory of the Irish electorate that they want FF in power again...

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716673#Comment_120716673

FF 21% not 31%

Sam Russell

Ooooops.

Edited.

Hate to give FF such a boost. Mind you they did go up 3%.

Brussels Sprout

Independents at 17% and growing is an interesting one.

That's traditionally been either a "None of the above" or a "I like my specific local independent" option.

I'm wondering now, with everything that's happened so far this year, with regards to migrant protests, does it also include an Anti migrant element. With all of the main parties having the same stance on the matter there is no political home for that vote currently so I think it will end up with whatever independent shouts the loudest about it in their constituency.

I think we will learn a lot about whether that is the case or not at next years local elections.

beggars_bush

There is generally no anti migrant sentiment in rural Ireland

The issue is lack of housing for everyone and poor investment in housing and infrastructure

Most of rural Ireland is middle class

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120725864#Comment_120725864

Politicians are unlikely to be explicitly anti-migrant (apart from the National Party no-hoper types). Instead it'll be more of a NIMBY type message where they'll say they've no issues with migrants but also make it known that they will oppose resettling migrants absolutely anywhere in their constituency/local area.

Brussels Sprout

I think the real starting gun on the next election is going to be when the Dáil resumes, after the summer break, in September. That will roughly coincide with the announcement by the new Electoral Commission of the new electoral boundaries for Dáil constituencies. After that, even though the actual election may be more than 12 months away, every utterance and every decision will be made with that election in mind. I'm not sure what legislation is lined up for next year but if it's anything thorny it might cause some serious rifts in the coalition. Nobody is going to want to be casting votes that will be used against them by constituency rivals in that upcoming election.

dasa29

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120726264#Comment_120726264

While that sounds interesting you and a lot of people are forgetting that next June will be the Local Elections / European Elections.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120728966#Comment_120728966

Quite.

But, if Leo thinks that FG will get a pasting in the locals and Euro elections, he could choose to go before them, or combine all three.

There is already talk of a constitutional referendum in the autumn, which could include one on property rights to give tenants better security, and another one to fix the number of Dail seats at the current number, or maybe fix it at 160. ( The USA Senate is only 100).

The Gov has to do something about housing.

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120729150#Comment_120729150

The dilapidated grants seem to be making a difference. A lot of old buildings in villages and rural areas are finally viable to buy and renovate.

So much housing stock not being used

Jim_Hodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716673#Comment_120716673

Latest Poll results from The Sunday Times/Behaviour and Attitudes 

FG up (24%), SF down, (34%), FF down (21%), SD down, (2%).

I wouldn't put much store on many of those polls.

Spilly123

FG are up 3 % to 20% in this poll, government combined is on 47%

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120728966#Comment_120728966

I'm most certainly not forgetting about those. They're going to be fascinating for many reasons:

• Will SF do a better job at vetting candidates now that they are expected to win a lot of races?
• How will Holly Cairns and Ivana Bacik do in their first elections as leader?
• Will Wallace & Daly have the audacity to run for Europe again after spending their time there cheerleading for some of the worst regimes on the planet?
• Will we see more candidates from the extreme right-wing fringe (NP/Irexit/Renua etc) running and will they do any better

The reason why I mention the boundary changes first is that they are happening far sooner than those elections - 3 months time vs 1 year away

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120729214#Comment_120729214

Will SF find enough candidates? They have an exceptionally low number of Councillors, a reasonable number are co-options after the 2020 GE so have never faced the public at all; and they either need to replace (Wynne) or really, really should (Ryan, Cronin, maybe more) some of the 2020 winners too.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120746457#Comment_120746457

Well they're sure to have a massive batch of fresh new councilors to choose from after next year's locals. They can use their behaviour on the councils to weed out the absolute dross then when it comes time for the Dail election.

Having a whole bunch of candidates get nowhere near elected to council seats in 2019 only for the very same candidates to get elected to the Dail, less than 12 months later, is going to be something that future PhDs in political science will be written on. I don't know if there is any precedent for it in the history of Irish politics and it may never happen again.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120747074#Comment_120747074

I wouldn't have the confidence of the Government making it to after that election, and certainly it will only have a few months of council actions to look at at best.

Cronin went out *on the first count as a sitting councillor* which is exceptionally rare anyway, and then became a TD 9 months later.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120747090#Comment_120747090

Martin Browne too (not sure what count but lost his seat)

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120747096#Comment_120747096

8th, and his running mate who was not a sitting councillor got in. Nowhere near as embarrassing

Cronin did absolutely zero as a councillor and that's why she lost her seat. She's even more absent locally as a TD and it's not cause of doing great works in the Dáil, but she's probably safe unless deselected. Which they really should do as they have a free go at that seat and surely have to have someone better?

zell12

Ivan Yates in SBPost predicts a GE late 2024. Housing is dominant issue

“ People in the 33-45 age cohort have discovered since the last general election in 2020 that “they’re going to have to pay market rents into their 60s and keep working”. “They honestly believe the system has f*** them over and they are angry as hell at the boomer generation, and they’re going to vote Sinn Féin. This juggernaut is coming at them, and I don’t see a strategy in Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. And the biggest reason why it will have happened, particularly in Fine Gael – in power for 14 years – is because of the lack of availability of housing.”

Sam Russell

I think Ivan Yates pulled that prediction from his arse.

Not even an opinion poll to back it up.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121270579#Comment_121270579

I do think he's a bit of a Charlatan but in the past he's predicted stuff reasonably well. I wouldn't dismiss it but at the same time wouldn't be basing as serious decisions on it.

Like I'd be very surprised if the Greens even got 2

Podge_irl

That would require a relatively appreciable further swing to SF which seems rather unlikely at this stage.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273240#Comment_121273240

Remember, Ivan Yates is a failed bookie. Even successful bookies make wrong predictions and lose a lot on particular bets, but overall win big.

Ivan went bankrupt.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121270579#Comment_121270579

He's right thought as regards that demographic and their difficulties. I'd pull it back further though - to 20 to 45 yr olds. We have them at home ourselves - were renting and had to give it up to try and save. Students crippled with long commutes from rural area. They talk about the failure of recent governments and want a fresh start. And it's not just them that will turn from the present lot but also parents and relatives.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273477#Comment_121273477

Well, there are many failures of politics in Ireland currently - mainly housing, health, and infrastructure.

Housing can be put down to the failure of successive governments to build council houses (now called social houses). This decision dates back to the 1980s. This led to the continuous rise in house prices - way above general inflation. Both aspects should have been tackled - by building more social houses and controlling private rents. The rise in house prices could be tackled by property taxes and capital gains tax on short term ownership - say less than 5 years.

Health is a demand service - and that is driven by three factors. Ageing population, increase in population, and new expensive high tech cures for conditions like cancers. Try telling someone with a rare cancer that the state cannot afford the latest cure because it is too expensive. The bill for drugs has continued to rise, despite the trend of equivalent low cost generic drugs being available. Of course having hospitals operating a 9 to 5 hour five day week does not help.

Infrastructure suffers from planning log jams caused by councillors blocking developments, nimbyism, and An Bord Pleanála. There is an attempt to solve these problems, but it takes time - and will take time no matter who is in power.

So we will see if the voters see a new Gov as a good prospect or not.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273477#Comment_121273477

...i think this really is the turning point, we have a growing number of older generations. i.e. parents, grandparents, uncles and aunts etc, now starting to realise their off spring are in serious trouble, ffg are in real trouble, but unfortunately irelands response is gonna be sf, yippee!

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273602#Comment_121273602

Biggest kick in the b**** is when they emigrate and don't come back.

The realisation has set in that, electoral/voting decisions made have consequences.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273675#Comment_121273675

Well, the financial crash of 2008 happened because the Gov lost the run of themselves, and the voters did not realise, and the opposition of the time tried to outbid the Gov in promises of better times to come.

Unfortunately, they all got it wrong, and we are still paying for it to this day. We have made a remarkable recovery from the crash, but there are many problems that do not have instant solutions or any achievable solution within one electoral cycle.

See post #27 above.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273675#Comment_121273675

some will never come back, but some will...

...this is now a more global problem, particular in advanced economies, we re coming to the end of a political/economic era, we re starting to realise decisions at many levels throughout this era, including at the electoral level, have been catastrophic, this is resulting in established parties getting a kicking, yet, nobody actually knows what to do next, we re in an extremely difficult transitional period, and we dont have a clue where we re going...

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273700#Comment_121273700

The opposition of the time tried to outbid the govt because in 2002 when they cautioned restraint they were annihilated. The voters were as much at fault for the overheating economy as the government.

Also the financial crisis happened because of things completely unrelated to Ireland and over which we had no control. Our response to it, such as the bank guarantee, was a factor but the external circumstances were going to happen no matter what.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273704#Comment_121273704

nobody actually knows what to do next

100% this!

No one knows what to do, and they're terrified of making the decision and it being completely wrong/screw up *Cough* children's hospital *cough cough*

Like that should have been a huge win for FF/FG but its turned into a disaster.

I think that fear of not knowing what to do or how to do it is the reason thinks like DART under ground, Metro, HSR between Cork/Dub/Belfast hasn't happened. The regulation around housing/building, the health service, Military and Policing. It's frozen because of fear of getting it wrong.

It's mental.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273743#Comment_121273743

....we were in the depths of a global credit bubble, that had been in the making for years, we bought into it, all of us, in particular our political classes, we truly believed in our own bullsh1t, and we learned, or did we, that driving your economy primarily via bank created credit(including irish bank created!), and using this credit to simply inflate a property bubble, will never end well!

...we were knee deep in this, no wonder we fell hard!

...but thank god we learned our lessons, thank god we havent re-inflated our property markets, thank god!

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273794#Comment_121273794

Well we are less reliant on stamp duty and other taxes related to property now, so we are more insulated from a property collapse.

But, again, it would take a lot to convince me that inflated property prices aren't in fact the will of the voters given the percentage of voters who are in owned property and the rampant nimbyism - almost always related to fears of reduced property prices.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273791#Comment_121273791

....Italian economist mariana mazzucato talks about this in her work, we have infantilised our political processes, completed depowered the whole process, to the point, we simply dont have the resources to makes the changes that need to be made, this is also instilling fear of getting things wrong, as mazzucato says, we almost celebrate failure in the private domain, but demonise it in the public, we wont move forward if we dont embrace failures within the public domain to....we re paralyzed by this fear!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273812#Comment_121273812

...we think we have insulated ourselves, but have we really! the issues of asset bubbles has now become far more complex since 08, we now seem to have bubbles in many other asset markets, including share markets and property markets, and other markets, so have we actually insulated ourselves, really!

yes we clearly do have a major divide occurring between asset owners, and non asset owners, its time to take a good look at ourselves again, we have to stop thinking the creation of asset bubbles is the solution to our problems, cause we all eventually lose in this game!

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273860#Comment_121273860

Of course we haven't insulated ourselves. It's impossible for a small, open economy to insulate itself from the global economy.

We have diversified our tax base somewhat though not really enough.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273602#Comment_121273602

Well that is the dilemma isn't it. And of course SF are happy to surf the wave, even if they'll likely do little to fix these problems. Their numero uno desire is a crack at a border poll etc. with very unpredictable results. Historians in the future may well look back of this period of negligent government and see it as the catalyst for what is to come.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121278573#Comment_121278573

"Historians in the future may well look back of this period of negligent government and see it as the catalyst for what is to come.". You are right there. I remember back in 2005 or 2006, one or two economists uttering something about the property / credit bubble then, but none of the politicians listened.

This time, the ding dong moment for me is seeing how all the multinationals have suddenly run a mile at the utterances of Paddy Cosgrove, whose views are closely aligned with those of Sinn Fein. Google, Intel, Meta, Siemens, Volkswagen, IBM, Amazon, Stripe etc etc are all suddenly boycotting and withdrawing from his upcoming web summit, because of his political stance.

If we got a SF government, I would fear things could also change, very quickly. When we saw what happened with the web summit, why would'nt they?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273794#Comment_121273794

"we bought into it, all of us"

No we all didn't.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121273794#Comment_121273794

No we didn't all buy into that guff.

But the prudent who were wary certainly paid for the greed of others afterwards.

rock22

I think it is too simplistic to link our financial crash in 2008- and the current housing crisis. Admittedly one has affected the other but not caused it. After decades of high interest rates, our access to cheap money, had us borrowing way beyond our means. Of course Banks pushed it, for their own reasons, profits, but Government did not want to regulate either. Light touch regulation saw some people I know add a €70,000 car onto their mortgage ,'because the bank thought it a good idea to get a new car with their new house'. They weren't the only couple borrowing way beyond their needs or ability to repay.

In 2010 I left Dublin and at the time the apartment I was renting was going to be vacant. The landlord expected to be burdened with a property where there was little or now demand. Around us there were a number of new apartment buildings and work had stopped on most of them. I saw the same in Galway. The feeling at that time was there would be little demand for rental property.

However later, as the economy began to improve audit became clear that there was a need , FG decided that that demand would be delivered by 'market forces' . Not just SF, but many commentators and builders said that the delivery of housing needed to be driven by government of local authorities with direct investment. There should have been no problem borrowing for such investment. This country built thousands of houses in the 50s , 60's and 70s when we had little money and the cost of borrowing was much higher. It was an ideological decision for FG and later FG/FF to leave this vital need to 'market forces' rather than state intervention. Only SF and the parties of the left, as far as I can see, are advocating direct state intervention to address the housing crisis. I have no doubt that if FF were to adopt similar policies, which they championed in the 50s-70s, they would take a large share of the centre vote. But , like FG, they are wedded to a Thatcherite/Reagonomic ideology and wont change that now. It is not in the interests of vulture funds to address the housing needs of people, it is their remit to maintain their profits. I am aware of one developer who have paused build starts early next year because they believe property is coming on to the market too fast and might cause a downward trend in prices.

As someone who now lives in rural Ireland I don't see any difference in views or worries between urban and rural. Housing is still seen as the biggest issue facing young people today. And many older voters ( and I count myself in that number) will vote to address that issue even if they are not directly affected. The current policy of the FF/FG government , relying of foreign vulture funds cannot fix the problem so more or the same has little attraction for many .

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121282461#Comment_121282461

The majority of the electorate did, which is all that really matters.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121315506#Comment_121315506

 I am aware of one developer who have paused build starts early next year because they believe property is coming on to the market too fast and might cause a downward trend in prices.

Aware how? Cause this makes pretty much no sense.

I am deeply, deeply curious as to where SF and their ilk plan on building all this housing given their fervour in opposing any building which so much as mildly inconveniences people.