May 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

So you may have noted from my forecast thread that I am taking a break from internet for a few days away, however, I had this list of forecasts ready to post earlier, forgot to post it, and had a look at the data to discover that 19.2 was the value, which only meant that top two forecasts in order needed to be moved down to turn it into a list of errors instead. I will maintain my general idea of a break from thinking by leaving scoring to my return around Monday 8th with the first week summary. Meanwhile I wonder if any of you would like to suggest a scoring system for this outcome, a lot of forecasts were in a fairly small range and even the furthest out were no different from numerical weather guidance (which on this one occasion seems to be further out than usual, must have been an expectation of total overcast given the other parameters). I may score these between 4 and 10 as a result of worse outcomes being avoided.

Anyway, these are the forecasts, scoring to be determined after my brief time away ...

Also, I imagine that any MAX or MIN candidates will be tracked by some of you, thanks in advance as always.

Cornerstonelad __________19.7

Bsal ___________________18.0

M.T. Cranium ___________ 20.5

Sunflower3 _____________17.3

Artane2002 ____________ 17.3

sryanbruen ____________ 17.1

Dasa29 ________________17.0

Kindred Spirit ___________17.0

Rameire _______________ 17.0

aah yes _______________ 16.8

Gonzo _________________16.7

waterways _____________ 16.7

___ Con sensus _________ 16.7

Adam240610 ___________ 16.6

200motels _____________ 16.4

john mac ______________ 16.2

Pauldry ________________16.1

Tae laidir ______________ 16.0

DOCARCH ______________15.3

Dacogawa ______________15.5

___ NormaL ____________ 14.5

Mr stonewall ____________ 14.3

MrSkinner ______________ 24.1

Appledrop ______________ 14.2

Joe Public ______________ 14.1

_________________________________

I note that a Mr - Mr compromise was a perfect forecast. Just sayin ...

appledrop

Well feck you Met Eireann, should have went with my gut for bonus question but oh no they were forecasting 14 degrees so went with that instead.

pauldry

I second that Appledrop.

Tae laidir

Dublin Airport 19.7 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After first week ...

IMT on 13.0, 2.7 above normal.

MAX 19.7, MIN not tracked

PRC 127% of normal.

SUN 56.2% of normal.

BONUS scoring (decided to be relatively lenient to lower scores with a superbonus for our one really close effort.

FORECASTER ___________ Max 3rd MtD ___ Score

Cornerstonelad __________19.7 _________ 11

Bsal ___________________18.0 _________ 10

M.T. Cranium ___________ 20.5 _________ 10

Sunflower3 _____________17.3 __________ 9

Artane2002 ____________ 17.3 __________ 9

sryanbruen _____________17.1 __________ 9

Dasa29 ________________17.0 __________ 8

Kindred Spirit ___________17.0 __________ 8

Rameire _______________ 17.0 __________ 8

aah yes _______________ 16.8 __________ 7

Gonzo _________________16.7 __________ 7

waterways _____________ 16.7 __________ 7

___ Con sensus _________ 16.7 __________ 7

Adam240610 ___________ 16.6 __________ 7

200motels _____________ 16.4 __________ 6

john mac ______________ 16.2 __________ 6

Pauldry ________________16.1 __________ 6

Tae laidir ______________ 16.0 __________ 6

Dacogawa ______________15.5 __________ 5

DOCARCH ______________15.3 __________ 5

___ NormaL ____________ 14.5 __________ 4

Mr stonewall ____________ 14.3 __________ 4

MrSkinner ______________ 24.1 __________ 4

Appledrop ______________ 14.2 __________ 4

Joe Public ______________ 14.1 __________ 4

_________________________________

Tae laidir

Max creeps up to the 20.2 at Phoenix Park.

DOCARCH

High of 20.7c at Claremorris yesterday.

pauldry

To be beaten many times before end of month I'd imagine.

M.T. Cranium

Not sure if it is really the MIN but 3.2 at Dublin overnight (Sat morning), could be about as low as we've had so far. (check other locations that don't report on meteociel).

Tae laidir

Dinner Camp continues slow creep to 21.1

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120594889#Comment_120594889

Where all the hungry soldiers go!

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT now on 12.6 C. Second week average 12.1 was 1.2 above normal. Forecasts suggest 12.6 is about the same as the average to be expected for rest of the month, or a touch lower, final outcome now predicted to be around 12.7 to 12.9.

MAX 21.1, MIN 3.2 Both of these are unlikely to survive to end of month.

PRC now 121% of normal, second week average 115%. Forecasts suggest only 50% of normal for rest of month which would give an outcome of 80%.

SUN has improved to 75% (from 56.2) but the second week average was still a bit below normal at 94%. The current indications are that the rest of the month may balance this cloudy start and give an outcome not far from 100%.

BONUS has already been (generously) scored.

M.T. Cranium

Noting that our lowest MAX forecast is 22.8 and our highest MIN is +1.4. Our lowest PRC forecasts are 80%.

M.T. Cranium

Several locations had hourly readings of 2 C overnight so a new MIN will be along soon. Quite a warm model run for last week of month overnight also.

Tae laidir

MIN didn't survive one day.

Mt. Dillon 2.3 yesterday.

pauldry

And lower last night again possibly.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, MIN will be at least 1.8 (have seen that value for Mullingar) with three other locations unknown at this point.

DOCARCH

Low of 1.6c at Athenry yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 12.4 C, the third week average was 12.0, 0.6 above normal. Model guidance suggests a slight rise in the average to around 12.7 C by end of month.

MAX 21.1, MIN 1.6 ... Both of these may be revised slightly.

PRC has fallen to 87% of normal after a dry week that had an average of only 20%. If it remains dry we are only guaranteed 57% and even a 50% rate now to end only produces a result of 73%. The current GFS guidance says zero rainfall (3 mm around Malin) for the rest of the month. As our lowest PRC forecasts are 80% that would certainly trigger minimum progression.

SUN has edged up a bit to 78% with the weekly average 85%. If the rest of the month had exactly normal sunshine the outcome would be around 86%, and to reach normal the rate now to 31st needs to be 140%, so I would guess the outcome might be close to 90% (requires 118% now to 31st). This is the sunniest time of year with an average of six hours a day, so 118% would represent an average of around seven hours.

BONUS already scored.

_______________________________

A look at scoring if my estimates as shown in the table below verified ... I have been generous with MAX but will go with the highest MIN forecast (1.4) just below the current MIN value of 1.6. That would create a "hammer" situation for boosted scoring, especially for the boosts for values below 0.0 as the first few forecasts behind the top scoring effort are similar so they don't lose points to the hammer (which is essentially the average of your raw score and your boosted score).

This table will be adjusted if we get a lower MIN and/or if any other trends need a significant revision.

Preliminary scoring estimates for May 2023

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ Max 3rd Mtdillon

Estimates ______________12.7_24.0_1.4_060_090 ____ 19.2 // ___ TOTALS

200motels _____________ 25 _ 09 _ 06*_ 07*_ 10 ___ 06 _____ 63

Pauldry ________________23 _ 00 _ 04*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 48

Adam240610 ___________ 23 _ 00 _ 10*_ 15*_ 01 ___ 07 _____ 56

Tae laidir ______________ 23 _ 00 _ 20*_ 04*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 62

MrSkinner _____________ 23 _ 10 _ 06*_ 12*_ 04 ___ 04 _____ 59

sryanbruen ____________ 23 _ 11 _ 04*_ 07*_ 09 ___ 09 _____ 63

Artane2002 ____________ 22 _ 12 _ 09*_ 06*_ 10 ___ 09 _____ 68

M.T. Cranium ___________ 21 _ 00 _ 08*_ 15*_ 03 ___ 10 _____ 57

Sunflower3 _____________20 _ 09 _ 06*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 09 _____ 65

Gonzo _________________20 _ 18 _ 06*_ 10*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 69

Dasa29 ________________18 _ 20 _ 04*_ 12*_ 06 ___ 08 _____ 68

Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 20 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 63

___ Con sensus _________ 18 _ 12 _ 06*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 59

Cornerstonelad __________18 _ 18 _ 04*_ 08*_ 10 ___ 11 _____ 69

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 18 _ 10 _ 04*_ 12*_ 06 ___ 10 _60-9=51

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 17 _ 05 _ 08*_ 09*_ 08 ___ 06 _63-1=62

Joe Public ______________ 17 _ 18 _ 00 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 04 _____ 51

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 17 _ 19 _ 04*_ 13*_ 06 ___ 07 _66-3=63

Rameire _______________ 17 _ 14 _ 16*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 70

DOCARCH ______________17 _ 12 _ 04*_ 13*_ 07 ___ 05 _____ 58

Mr stonewall ____________17 _ 07 _ 19*_ 05*_ 10 ___ 01 _____ 59

Appledrop ______________16 _ 12 _ 04*_ 03*_ 10 ___ 01 _____ 46

waterways _____________ 15 _ 00 _ 18*_ 06*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 55

Dacogawa ______________15 _ 00 _ 05*_ 00 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 34

___ NormaL ____________ 08 _ 15 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 01 _____ 41

__ * scores boosted by minimum progression

==========================

(actual forecasts)

200motels _____________ 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

Pauldry ________________12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107 _ 100 ___ 16.1

Adam240610 ___________ 12.5 _ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 16.6

Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ +1.4 _ 118 _ 094 ___ 16.0

MrSkinner _____________ 12.5 _ 25.0 _ -0.6 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 24.1

sryanbruen ____________ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

Artane2002 ____________ 12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 20.5

Sunflower3 _____________12.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 17.3

Gonzo _________________12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

Dasa29 ________________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

Kindred Spirit ___________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

___ Con sensus _________ 12.0 _ 24.8 _ -0.8 _ 100 _ 099 ___ 16.7

Cornerstonelad __________12.0 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 19.7

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 18.0

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 098 _ 100 ___ 16.2

Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124 _ 091 ___ 14.1

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 11.9 _ 24.1 _ -1.2 _ 089 _ 111 ___ 16.8

Rameire _______________ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ +0.8 _ 105 _ 099 ___ 17.0

DOCARCH ______________11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

Mr stonewall ____________11.9 _ 22.7_ +1.2 _ 112 _ 088 ___ 14.3

Appledrop ______________11.8 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 092 ___ 14.2

waterways _____________ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ +1.1 _ 109 _ 097 ___ 16.7

Dacogawa ______________11.7 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 15.5

___ NormaL ____________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

==========================

M.T. Cranium

Saw on spring discussion max of 21.6 at Moorepark yesterday. (25 May)

M.T. Cranium

MAX 22.5 on FRIDAY 26TH at SHANNON.

DOCARCH

High of 23.4c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks,

IMT on 12.6, fourth week average 13.2 was 1.3 above normal.

MAX 23.4 and MIN 1.6

PRC is now down to 65% of normal after a bone dry week (1% average). Three more dry days would drop this to 60%.

SUN now up to 98% with the fourth week average 157% (despite Belmullet being only at 87%). Three more sunny days (incl today) would push this perhaps to 105%.

BONUS already scored and preliminary scoring posted above, will not be edited again until values confirmed.

M.T. Cranium

Mountdillon edged down to MIN of 1.5 on 29th.

June forecast thread is now open.

Tae laidir

Shannon flying high at 25deg at 18.00.

M.T. Cranium

This warm, dry sunny spell could end up making my forecast borderline respectable at the final whistle. Any chance of a day-long car rally around Shannon's parking lots tomorrow?

pauldry

Yeah I'm 2.6c off min n 2.1c off max so 0 points. Unless tomorrow....

rameire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120659129#Comment_120659129

A confirmed 24.9 at Shannon.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1663660676131311617?t=OCuAKnKxPe_RBS3x5spoTg&s=19

M.T. Cranium

Updated scoring estimates for May 2023

Scores are based on mostly known values, IMT at 12.66 after 30 days (edit) ended up 12.74, SUN to be confirmed tomorrow from MS. It may end up even a bit above 105% given past 3 days of nearly 225%.

Annual scoring update tomorrow, and category scoring update, also four seasons update.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ Max 3rd Mtdillon

Confirmed values ________12.7_24.9_1.5_060_105 ____ 19.2 // ___ TOTALS

Sunflower3 _____________20 _ 18 _ 06*_ 12*_ 08 ___ 09 _____ 73

Artane2002 ____________ 22 _ 19 _ 09*_ 06*_ 07 ___ 09 _____ 72

MrSkinner _____________ 23 _ 19 _ 06*_ 12*_ 07 ___ 04 _____ 71

sryanbruen ____________ 23 _ 20 _ 04*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 09 _____ 71

200motels _____________25 _ 18 _ 06*_ 07*_ 07 ___ 06 _____ 69

Tae laidir ______________ 23 _ 08 _ 20*_ 04*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 69

___ Con sensus _________ 18 _ 19 _ 06*_ 08*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 67

Dasa29 ________________18 _ 11 _ 04*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 62

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 17 _ 14 _ 08*_ 09*_ 09 ___ 06 _63-1=62

Rameire _______________ 17 _ 05 _ 16*_ 07*_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 62

Adam240610 ___________ 23 _ 02 _ 10*_ 15*_ 04 ___ 07 _____ 61

Gonzo _________________20 _ 09 _ 06*_ 10*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 61

M.T. Cranium ___________ 21 _ 00 _ 08*_ 15*_ 06 ___ 10 _____ 60

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 17 _ 12 _ 04*_ 13*_ 09 ___ 07 _62-3=59

Cornerstonelad __________18 _ 09 _ 04*_ 08*_ 07 ___ 11 _____ 57

Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 11 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 54

waterways _____________ 15 _ 00 _ 18*_ 06*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 54

DOCARCH ______________17 _ 03 _ 04*_ 13*_ 10 ___ 05 _____ 52

Pauldry ________________23 _ 00 _ 04*_ 07*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 49

Mr stonewall ____________17 _ 00 _ 19*_ 05*_ 07 ___ 01 _____ 49

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 18 _ 01 _ 04*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 10 _54-9=45

Joe Public ______________ 17 _ 13 _ 00 _ 02*_ 07 ___ 04 _____ 43

___ NormaL ____________ 08 _ 16 _ 01*_ 08*_ 09 ___ 01 _____ 43

Dacogawa ______________15 _ 09 _ 05*_ 00 _ 06 ___ 05 _____ 40

Appledrop ______________16 _ 03 _ 04*_ 03*_ 07 ___ 01 _____ 34

__ * scores boosted by minimum progression

==========================

(actual forecasts)

200motels _____________ 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

Pauldry ________________12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107 _ 100 ___ 16.1

Adam240610 ___________ 12.5 _ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 16.6

Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ +1.4 _ 118 _ 094 ___ 16.0

MrSkinner _____________ 12.5 _ 25.0 _ -0.6 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 24.1

sryanbruen ____________ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

Artane2002 ____________ 12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 20.5

Sunflower3 _____________12.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 17.3

Gonzo _________________12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

Dasa29 ________________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

Kindred Spirit ___________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

___ Con sensus _________ 12.0 _ 24.8 _ -0.8 _ 100 _ 099 ___ 16.7

Cornerstonelad __________12.0 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 19.7

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 18.0

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 098 _ 100 ___ 16.2

Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124 _ 091 ___ 14.1

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 11.9 _ 24.1 _ -1.2 _ 089 _ 111 ___ 16.8

Rameire _______________ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ +0.8 _ 105 _ 099 ___ 17.0

DOCARCH ______________11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

Mr stonewall ____________11.9 _ 22.7_ +1.2 _ 112 _ 088 ___ 14.3

Appledrop ______________11.8 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 092 ___ 14.2

waterways _____________ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ +1.1 _ 109 _ 097 ___ 16.7

Dacogawa ______________11.7 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 15.5

___ NormaL ____________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

==========================

M.T. Cranium

Note: Scoring above is adjusted as follows, SUN scores are generally up or down by 1 point. Otherwise, MS values are either same as indicated above, or (PRC) do not affect scoring (PRC = 61%, SUN = 110%) ... forecasters with one extra point for SUN are Adam, MTC, MrSkinner, Dasa29, Bsal, aah yes. All others are reduced by one point except Kindred Spirit whose SUN score was erroneously entered as 8 which is now correct so that score remains 54. I have checked and adjusted all others to confirm the changes which you can verify in the table below the category scoring.

Congrats to sunflower3 and Mr Skinner who are tied at 72 points after the adjustments, with Artane2002 at 71 and sryanbruen at 70 points.

___ Annual scoring summary Jan-May 2023 ___

Starting this month, annual scoring and category scoring are now in separate tables.

Also this month, best 4/5 scores are ranked at end of each scoring row, but the table continues to be based on total scores for all months.

Rank (prev)_FORECASTER __ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY __ TOTAL __ Best 4/5 (rank) ((prev rank 3/4))

_ 00.8 (02.0)_ Con Sensus __ 65 __ 74 __ 58 __ 64 __ 66 ____ 327 ___ 269 _ (04.0) _ ((03.7))

_t01 (t3) _tae laidir ________38 __ 64 __ 72 __ 80 __ 68 ____ 322 ___ 284 _ ( 1 ) __ ((01))

_t01 (01) _Kindred Spirit ____58 __ 74 __ 74 __ 62 __ 54 ____ 322 ___ 268 _ ( 5 ) __ ((03))

_ 03 (06) _sryanbruen ______46 __ 76 __ 68 __ 55 __ 70 ____ 315 ___ 269 _ ( 4 ) __ ((t07))

_ 04 (02) _DOCARCH _______77 __ 67 __ 69 __ 48 __ 51 ____ 312 ___ 264 _ ( 6 ) __ ((02))

_ 05 (08) _Sunflower3 ______47 __ 69 __ 39 __ 84 __ 72 ____ 311 ___ 272 _ ( 2 ) __ ((06))

_ 06 (05) _john mac _______ 58 __ 47 __ 71 __ 72 __ 61 ____ 309 ___ 262 _ ( 7 ) __ ((05))

_ 07 (07) _adam240610 ____ 61 __ 61 __ 65 __ 57 __ 62 ____ 306 ___ 249 _ (t10)__((t11))

(7.0)(1.6) _ NormaL ______67 __ 44 __ 76 __ 77 __ 42 ____ 306 ___ 264 _ (6.0) _((00.8))

_ 08 (09) _M.T. Cranium _____67 __ 70 __ 44 __ 54 __ 61 ____ 296 ___ 252 _ ( 9 ) __ ((09))

_t09 (t3) _Appledrop _______ 53 __ 64 __ 73 __ 64 __ 33 ____ 287 ___ 254 _ ( 8 ) __ ((04))

_t09 (15)_200 motels _______41 __ 74 __ 38 __ 66 __ 68 ____ 287 ___ 249 _ (t10)__((13))

_ 11 (14)_Gonzo ___________46 __ 69 __ 52 __ 58 __ 60 ____ 285 ___ 239 _ (12) __((14))

_t12 (11) _Bsal ____________71 __ 49 __ 42 __ 68 __ 46 ____ 276 ___ 234 _ (t13) __((10))

_t12 (12) _Pauldry _________ 50 __ 62 __ 66 __ 50 __ 48 ____ 276 ___ 228 _ (t16) __((15))

_ 14 (19) _Artane2002 (4/5)__50 __ 71 __ 78 __ --- __ 71 ____ 270 ___ 270 _ ( 3 ) __((t07))

_t15 (13) _Dacogawa _______ 63 __ 58 __ 54 __ 51 __ 39 ____ 265 ___ 226 _ (18) __((16))

_t15 (18)_Dasa29 __________61 __ 54 __ 42 __ 45 __ 63 ____ 265 ___ 223 _ (20) __((22))

_ 17 (23) _MrSkinner ________25 __ 69 __ 34 __ 53 __ 72 ____ 253 ___ 228 _ (t16) __((t23))

_ 18 (17)_Joe Public ________ 46 __ 48 __ 53 __ 63 __ 42 ____ 252 ___ 210 _ (23) __((20))

_t19 (20) _ waterways _______52 __ 27 __ 41 __ 76 __ 53 ____ 249 ___ 222 _ (21) __((18))

_t19 (21) _Cornerstonelad ____49 __ 61 __ 25 __ 58 __ 56 ____ 249 ___ 224 _ (19) __((19))

_ 21 (22) _Rameire _________ 10 __ 68 __ 52 __ 53 __ 61 ____ 244 ___ 234 _ (t13) __((17))

_ 22 (10) _WolfeEire (4/5) ____76 __ 47 __ 59 __ 52 __ --- ____ 234 ___ 234 _ (t13)__((t11))

_ 23 (24) _ Mr.stonewall _____45 __ 30 __ 54 __ 48 __ 48 ____ 225 ___ 195 _ (24) __ ((25))

_ 24 (16)_ Jpmarn __________61 __ 49 __ 50 __ 51 __ --- ____ 211 ___ 211 _ (22) __((21))

_ 25 (25)_esposito (3/5) _____ 54 __ 57 __ 45 __ -- __ --- ____ 156 ___ 156 _ (25) __((t23))

_ 26 (26) _Rebelbrowser (1/5) _78 __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- _____ 78

_ 27 (---) _Aah yes (1/5) _____ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ 60 ____ 60

_ 28 (27) _ Danno (1/5) ______58 __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- _____ 58

___________________________________

___ Category scoring totals Jan-May ____

FORECASTER ____ IMT _MAX _MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS __ TOTAL (total before late pens)

Max Possible _____120 _100 _100 _ 75 _ 50 __ 50 ____ 500

_ Con Sensus _____85 _ 70 _ 53 _ 49 _ 36 __ 34 ____ 327

Kindred Spirit _____84 _ 66 _ 61 _ 44 _ 31 __ 36 ____ 322

Tae laidir ________111 _54 _ 65 _ 22 _ 35 __ 35 ____ 322

sryanbruen _______93 _ 61 _ 55 _ 48 _ 33 __ 25 _____315

DOCARCH _______ 76 _ 62 _ 54 _ 61 _ 34 __ 25 _____ 312

Sunflower3 _______93 _ 63 _ 41 _ 45 _ 36 __ 33 ____ 311

john mac _________82 _ 54 _ 61 _ 51 _ 37 __ 25 ____ 309 (310)

adam240610 ______87 _ 45 _ 59 _ 53 _ 33 __ 29 ____ 306

_ NormaL _______65 _ 61 _ 52 _ 54 _ 37 __ 37 ____ 306

M.T. Cranium _____ 89 _ 19 _ 58 _ 61 _ 37 __ 32 ____ 296

Appledrop ________89 _ 36 _ 51 _ 47 _ 41 __ 23 ____ 287

200 motels _______94 _ 63 _ 35 _ 50 _ 34 __ 25 ____ 287 (301)

Gonzo ___________92 _ 54 _ 24 _ 52 _ 31 __ 34 ____ 285 (287)

Bsal ____________ 89 _ 43 _ 41 _ 43 _ 39 __ 30 ____ 276 (285)

Pauldry __________89 _ 44 _ 30 _ 58 _ 34 __ 21 ____ 276

Artane2002 (4/5) __77 _ 54 _ 42 _ 41 _ 29 __ 27 ____ 270

Dacogawa ________86 _ 55 _ 34 _ 27 _ 34 __ 29 ____ 265

Dasa29 __________71 _ 35 _ 35 _ 53 _ 39 __ 32 ____ 265

MrSkinner ________87 _ 55 _ 33 _ 38 _ 28 __ 14 ____ 253 (255)

Joe Public ________75 _ 71 _ 25 _ 34 _ 31 __ 20 ____ 252 (256) 

waterways _______ 61 _ 38 _ 43 _ 36 _ 37 __ 34 ____ 249

Cornerstonelad ____75 _ 50 _ 39 _ 39 _ 22 __ 31 ____ 249 (256)

Rameire _________ 84 _ 40 _ 31 _ 46 _ 36 __ 35 ____ 244 (272)

WolfeEire (4/5) ____61 _ 35 _ 49 _ 43 _ 24 __ 22 ____ 234

Mr.stonewall ______66 _ 32 _ 45 _ 29 _ 28 __ 25 ____ 225

Jpmarn ___(4/5)___58 _ 17 _ 43 _ 40 _ 24 __ 29 ____ 211

esposito __ (3/5)___54 _ 32 _ 05 _ 31 _ 18 __ 16 ____ 156

Rebelbrowser (1/5)_15 _ 16 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 __ 09 ____ 78

aah yes____(1/5)__17 _ 12 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 __ 07 ____ 60 (63)

Danno ____ (1/5) _ 13 _ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 __ 08 ____ 58

___________________________________

In category scoring (Jan to May totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.

MAX _ two tied for third place. Con Sensus would be second.

MIN _ two tied for second place, thus no third place indicated.

PRC _ two tied for first place, thus no second place indicated, but third is shown.

SUN _ two tied for second place, thus no third place indicated.

BONUS _ two tied for second place, thus no third place indicated. NormaL would be first alone.

Order is same as determined by total scores in annual scoring summary above this table.

Not all have any late penalties, but those who do will have their contest score (after penalties) in the TOTAL column and the total before penalties (the sum of the category scores) in brackets and italic font, after their contest score.

============

Adjusted Scoring for May

FORECASTER __________ IMT _MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___BONUS __TOTAL

Sunflower3 _____________20 _ 18 _ 06*_ 12*_ 07 ___ 09 _____ 72

MrSkinner _____________ 23 _ 19 _ 06*_ 12*_ 08 ___ 04 _____ 72

Artane2002 ____________ 22 _ 19 _ 09*_ 06*_ 06 ___ 09 _____ 71

sryanbruen ____________ 23 _ 20 _ 04*_ 07*_ 07 ___ 09 _____ 70

200motels _____________25 _ 18 _ 06*_ 07*_ 06 ___ 06 _____ 68

Tae laidir ______________ 23 _ 08 _ 20*_ 04*_ 07 ___ 06 _____ 68

___ Con sensus _________ 18 _ 19 _ 06*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 66

Dasa29 ________________18 _ 11 _ 04*_ 12*_ 10 ___ 08 _____ 63

Adam240610 ___________ 23 _ 02 _ 10*_ 15*_ 05 ___ 07 _____ 62

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 17 _ 14 _ 08*_ 09*_ 08 ___ 06 _62-1=61

Rameire _______________ 17 _ 05 _ 16*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 61

M.T. Cranium ___________ 21 _ 00 _ 08*_ 15*_ 07 ___ 10 _____ 61

Gonzo _________________20 _ 09 _ 06*_ 10*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 60

aah yes ____ (-3) _______ 17 _ 12 _ 04*_ 13*_ 10 ___ 07 _63-3=60

Cornerstonelad __________18 _ 09 _ 04*_ 08*_ 06 ___ 11 _____ 56

Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 11 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 54

waterways _____________ 15 _ 00 _ 18*_ 06*_ 07 ___ 07 _____ 53

DOCARCH ______________17 _ 03 _ 04*_ 13*_ 09 ___ 05 _____ 51

Pauldry ________________23 _ 00 _ 04*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 48

Mr stonewall ____________17 _ 00 _ 19*_ 05*_ 06 ___ 01 _____ 48

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 18 _ 01 _ 04*_ 12*_ 10 ___ 10 _55-9=46

Joe Public ______________ 17 _ 13 _ 00 _ 02*_ 06 ___ 04 _____ 42

___ NormaL ____________ 08 _ 16 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 01 _____ 42

Dacogawa ______________15 _ 09 _ 05*_ 00 _ 05 ___ 05 _____ 39

Appledrop ______________16 _ 03 _ 04*_ 03*_ 06 ___ 01 _____ 33

Four seasons contest report to follow ...

As there are quite a few forecasters near the top of the ranks now, congrats to all, looks like quite a competitive contest this year. Note, Artane2002 missed one month and is well down in total score but third in best 4/5 so right in the battle for the main contest. Kindred Spirit, tae laidir, Sunflower3, sryanbruen, DOCARCH, john mac and Adam240610 all very close in scoring, and our nemesis Con Sensus has moved ahead while NormaL fell back in May.