May 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (11.0 is the average 1981-2010 value).

2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum temperature for Mountdillon on Wednesday, 3rd of May. Scoring will be based on error as well as ranking but there will not be any super-bonus available. By considering error as well as ranking, we could end up with a higher average score if a lot of people are close to the target. Will discuss scoring more after seeing the range of forecasts.

Deadline as always is 0300h 1st of May, with points deducted for each four hours late thereafter (or portion). Penalties increase to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

MTC ____ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 23.8

NormaL __11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ (00z May 1 GFS output)

(seems unfair to give NormaL a low score from the normal of 16.5, so will go with a "normalized" forecast, to be added to thread on 1st. I may revise my own estimate by the deadline too)

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

Artane2002

Artane2002 __12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____ 11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

Gonzo

Gonzo ____ 12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

dasa29

Dasa29 ____ 12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 12.0 ___ 24.0 ___ -1.5 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 17.0

(I didn't copy you, Dasa29. I'd mine written out this morning but was interrupted before I could post it.)

sunflower3

Sunflower3 __12.2 _ 25.1_ -0.8_ 90 _ 095 ___ 17.3

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad___12___23.8___-1.1___100____90___19.7

200motels

200motels----------- 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

waterways

waterways ____ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ 1.1 _ 109 _ 97 ___ 16.7

rameire

Rameire ____ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ 0.8 _ 105 _ 99 ___ 17. 0

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ____ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ 1.4 _ 118 _ 94 ___ 16.0

Joe Public

Joe Public ____ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124_ 91 ___ 14.1

pauldry

Pauldry____ 12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107_ 100 ___ 16.1

M.T. Cranium

The GFS projection as of 18z for the bonus is only 14 C, will edit in the 00z model run projection. I am dropping my guess to 20.5 as I don't need to go any higher to maintain position. Could be in for a big bust or else the modelling is off by an unusual margin.

(edit _ 00z GFS shows 14 C as max for the location, will enter it for NormaL as 14.5).

(has to be based on persistent overcast as thickness values could support 20-23 C with sunshine).

 

 

appledrop

Appledrop__11.8__23.2__-1.2___120__92__14.2

adam240610

Adam240610__12.5_ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 __16.6

Youre expecting an absolute scorcher for the bonus mtc

mrskinner

Skinner____12.5____25____-0.6____90____120____24.1

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall__11.9___22.7___1.2___112___88___14.3

dacogawa

Dacogawa__11.7___26___-1.0___136___86___15.5

John mac

john mac __11.9 _ 25.5 _ -.5 _ 98 _ 100 ___ 16.2

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for May 2023

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 3rd Mtdillon

200motels _____________ 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

Pauldry ________________12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107 _ 100 ___ 16.1

Adam240610 ___________ 12.5 _ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 16.6

Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ +1.4 _ 118 _ 094 ___ 16.0

MrSkinner _____________ 12.5 _ 25.0 _ -0.6 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 24.1

sryanbruen ____________ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

Artane2002 ____________ 12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 20.5

Sunflower3 _____________12.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 17.3

Gonzo _________________12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

Dasa29 ________________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

___ Con sensus _________ 12.0 _ 24.9 _ -0.8 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 16.7

Kindred Spirit ___________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

Cornerstonelad __________12.0 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 19.7

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 098 _ 100 ___ 16.2

Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124 _ 091 ___ 14.1

Rameire _______________ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ +0.8 _ 105 _ 099 ___ 17.0

DOCARCH ______________11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

Mr stonewall ____________11.9 _ 22.7_ +1.2 _ 112 _ 088 ___ 14.3

Appledrop ______________11.8 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 092 ___ 14.2

waterways _____________ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ +1.1 _ 109 _ 097 ___ 16.7

Dacogawa ______________11.7 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 15.5

___ NormaL ____________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

==========================

Can add any later forecasts and adjust con sensus if necessary.

All forecasts are comfortably above normal, and trends for PRC, SUN near normal.

aah yes

aah yes ________________11.9 _ 24.1 _ -1.2 _ 089 _ 111 ___ 16.8

pauldry

Looks like 20c could happen in Mt Dillon tomorrow. I went with Met Eireanns short range which was forecasting 14c so I just thought ah well ill go a couple over that but turns out they could be out by 6 DEGREES.

Bsal

Bsal __12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 90 _ 112 ___ 18

Jpmarn

I thought I posted in an entry for this month's contest last Sunday evening the 30th but for some unknown reason it never came through. I only just copped on just before writing this post. Because of penalties I decided to stay out this month.

John mac

looks like 19ish

pauldry

Another bonus blowout for me. This is getting worse than the fantasy football now.

M.T. Cranium

Updated Table of forecasts for May 2023

cannot edit so will re-post to incorporate two late forecasts.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 3rd Mtdillon

200motels _____________ 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

Pauldry ________________12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107 _ 100 ___ 16.1

Adam240610 ___________ 12.5 _ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 16.6

Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ +1.4 _ 118 _ 094 ___ 16.0

MrSkinner _____________ 12.5 _ 25.0 _ -0.6 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 24.1

sryanbruen ____________ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

Artane2002 ____________ 12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 20.5

Sunflower3 _____________12.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 17.3

Gonzo _________________12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

Dasa29 ________________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

Kindred Spirit ___________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

___ Con sensus _________ 12.0 _ 24.8 _ -0.8 _ 100 _ 099 ___ 16.7

Cornerstonelad __________12.0 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 19.7

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 18.0

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 098 _ 100 ___ 16.2

Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124 _ 091 ___ 14.1

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 11.9 _ 24.1 _ -1.2 _ 089 _ 111 ___ 16.8

Rameire _______________ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ +0.8 _ 105 _ 099 ___ 17.0

DOCARCH ______________11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

Mr stonewall ____________11.9 _ 22.7_ +1.2 _ 112 _ 088 ___ 14.3

Appledrop ______________11.8 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 092 ___ 14.2

waterways _____________ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ +1.1 _ 109 _ 097 ___ 16.7

Dacogawa ______________11.7 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 15.5

___ NormaL ____________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

==========================

rameire

Mount Dillon was 19.2 at a Max yesterday.

Which was also the warmest spot on this land.