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May 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-04-2023 4:12am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,320 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT (11.0 is the average 1981-2010 value).

    2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

    3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

    4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

    5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

    6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum temperature for Mountdillon on Wednesday, 3rd of May. Scoring will be based on error as well as ranking but there will not be any super-bonus available. By considering error as well as ranking, we could end up with a higher average score if a lot of people are close to the target. Will discuss scoring more after seeing the range of forecasts.

    Deadline as always is 0300h 1st of May, with points deducted for each four hours late thereafter (or portion). Penalties increase to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

    MTC ____ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 23.8

    NormaL __11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ (00z May 1 GFS output)

    (seems unfair to give NormaL a low score from the normal of 16.5, so will go with a "normalized" forecast, to be added to thread on 1st. I may revise my own estimate by the deadline too)



«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

    Post edited by sryanbruen on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 __12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,703 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo ____ 12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7



  • Registered Users Posts: 547 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 ____ 12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0



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  • Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 12.0 ___ 24.0 ___ -1.5 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 17.0

    (I didn't copy you, Dasa29. I'd mine written out this morning but was interrupted before I could post it.)



  • Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3 __12.2 _ 25.1_ -0.8_ 90 _ 095 ___ 17.3



  • Registered Users Posts: 42 Cornerstonelad


    Cornerstonelad___12___23.8___-1.1___100____90___19.7



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels----------- 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4



  • Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ____ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ 1.1 _ 109 _ 97 ___ 16.7



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,112 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire ____ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ 0.8 _ 105 _ 99 ___ 17. 0

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ 1.4 _ 118 _ 94 ___ 16.0

    Post edited by Tae laidir on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public ____ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124_ 91 ___ 14.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry____ 12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107_ 100 ___ 16.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,320 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The GFS projection as of 18z for the bonus is only 14 C, will edit in the 00z model run projection. I am dropping my guess to 20.5 as I don't need to go any higher to maintain position. Could be in for a big bust or else the modelling is off by an unusual margin.

    (edit _ 00z GFS shows 14 C as max for the location, will enter it for NormaL as 14.5).

    (has to be based on persistent overcast as thickness values could support 20-23 C with sunshine).

     

     

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,781 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop__11.8__23.2__-1.2___120__92__14.2



  • Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610__12.5_ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 __16.6


    Youre expecting an absolute scorcher for the bonus mtc



  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner____12.5____25____-0.6____90____120____24.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall__11.9___22.7___1.2___112___88___14.3



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa__11.7___26___-1.0___136___86___15.5



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,105 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac __11.9 _ 25.5 _ -.5 _ 98 _ 100 ___ 16.2



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,320 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium



    Table of forecasts for May 2023


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 3rd Mtdillon


    200motels _____________ 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

    Pauldry ________________12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107 _ 100 ___ 16.1

    Adam240610 ___________ 12.5 _ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 16.6

    Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ +1.4 _ 118 _ 094 ___ 16.0

    MrSkinner _____________ 12.5 _ 25.0 _ -0.6 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 24.1

    sryanbruen ____________ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

    Artane2002 ____________ 12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 20.5

    Sunflower3 _____________12.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 17.3

    Gonzo _________________12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

    Dasa29 ________________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

    ___ Con sensus _________ 12.0 _ 24.9 _ -0.8 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 16.7

    Kindred Spirit ___________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

    Cornerstonelad __________12.0 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 19.7

    john mac _____ (-1) _____ 11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 098 _ 100 ___ 16.2

    Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124 _ 091 ___ 14.1

    Rameire _______________ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ +0.8 _ 105 _ 099 ___ 17.0

    DOCARCH ______________11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

    Mr stonewall ____________11.9 _ 22.7_ +1.2 _ 112 _ 088 ___ 14.3

    Appledrop ______________11.8 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 092 ___ 14.2

    waterways _____________ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ +1.1 _ 109 _ 097 ___ 16.7

    Dacogawa ______________11.7 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 15.5


    ___ NormaL ____________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

    ==========================

    Can add any later forecasts and adjust con sensus if necessary.

    All forecasts are comfortably above normal, and trends for PRC, SUN near normal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 292 ✭✭aah yes


    aah yes ________________11.9 _ 24.1 _ -1.2 _ 089 _ 111 ___ 16.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looks like 20c could happen in Mt Dillon tomorrow. I went with Met Eireanns short range which was forecasting 14c so I just thought ah well ill go a couple over that but turns out they could be out by 6 DEGREES.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,766 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal __12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 90 _ 112 ___ 18



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    I thought I posted in an entry for this month's contest last Sunday evening the 30th but for some unknown reason it never came through. I only just copped on just before writing this post. Because of penalties I decided to stay out this month.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,105 ✭✭✭John mac


    looks like 19ish



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Another bonus blowout for me. This is getting worse than the fantasy football now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,320 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated Table of forecasts for May 2023

    cannot edit so will re-post to incorporate two late forecasts.


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 3rd Mtdillon


    200motels _____________ 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

    Pauldry ________________12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107 _ 100 ___ 16.1

    Adam240610 ___________ 12.5 _ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 16.6

    Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ +1.4 _ 118 _ 094 ___ 16.0

    MrSkinner _____________ 12.5 _ 25.0 _ -0.6 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 24.1

    sryanbruen ____________ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

    Artane2002 ____________ 12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 20.5

    Sunflower3 _____________12.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 17.3

    Gonzo _________________12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

    Dasa29 ________________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

    Kindred Spirit ___________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

    ___ Con sensus _________ 12.0 _ 24.8 _ -0.8 _ 100 _ 099 ___ 16.7

    Cornerstonelad __________12.0 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 19.7

    Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 18.0

    john mac _____ (-1) _____ 11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 098 _ 100 ___ 16.2

    Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124 _ 091 ___ 14.1

    aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 11.9 _ 24.1 _ -1.2 _ 089 _ 111 ___ 16.8

    Rameire _______________ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ +0.8 _ 105 _ 099 ___ 17.0

    DOCARCH ______________11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

    Mr stonewall ____________11.9 _ 22.7_ +1.2 _ 112 _ 088 ___ 14.3

    Appledrop ______________11.8 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 092 ___ 14.2

    waterways _____________ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ +1.1 _ 109 _ 097 ___ 16.7

    Dacogawa ______________11.7 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 15.5


    ___ NormaL ____________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

    ==========================



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,112 ✭✭✭rameire


    Mount Dillon was 19.2 at a Max yesterday.

    Which was also the warmest spot on this land.

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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