Boards weather forecast contest for April 2023

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average monthly temperature for five locations, 1981-2010 average was 8.4 C)
2. Predict the MAX at the 25 locations normally reporting on the met.ie website.
3. Predict the MIN at the 25 locations normally reporting on the met.ie website.
4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal (based on eleven locations around Ireland).
5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal (based on six locations around Ireland).
6. BONUS: Predict the maximum temperature at Oak Park on Easter Sunday 9th of April.

Deadline for on-time entries is 0300h Saturday 1st of April. The usual late penalties apply. MIN forecasts with access to reported values overnight 1st-2nd will also have a 15/20 scoring cap as well as the late penalty, applied only if that forecast succeeds from known information.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ________ 8.5 _ 19.6 _ -4.1 _ 085 _ 100 ___ 14.6

Bsal

Bsal ________ 8.9 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 097 _ 104 ___ 15.0

200motels

200motels--------- 8.6_ 21.3 _ -2.1 _ 089_ 101 ___ 16.8

WolfeEire

WolfeEire--------- 8.4_ 19.1 _ -3 _ 080_ 108 ___ 14.3

dasa29

Dasa29 ________ 8.2 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 14.5

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 9.4 ___ 20.0 ___ -2.8 ___ 83 ___ 112 ___ 15.3

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad___7.9___20.9___-3.9___79__120___14.8

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ______ 8.5 ___ 20.2 ___ -0.9 ___ 92 ___ 110 ___ 15.1

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________ 9.1 _ 21.1 _ -2.9 _ 118 _ 101 __ 13.7

rameire

Rameire ________ 8.3 _ 20.0_ -1.1 _ 095 _ 95 ___ 13.6

appledrop

Appledrop ___8.9__19.2__-2.8__110__90__13.5

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ________ 8.3 __ 19.4 __ -2.5 __ 083 __ 105 ___ 11.7

NormaL ____________ 8.4 __ 20.5 __ -3.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 12.8

waterways

waterways ___ 8.4 ___ 22.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 99 ___ 109 ___ 12.0

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall ___8.7__19.5___-2.2___75__110___14.2

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____________ 8.1__ 19.5 __ -3.8 __ 75 __ 120 ___ 13.2

John mac

john mac________ 8.6 _ 21.6 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 15.4

adam240610

Adan240610__ 90___ 19.8 ___ -1.8___ 93 ___ 102 ___14.1

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___9.2__22.4__-1.3__64__110__13.2

pauldry

Pauldry___9.1__19.4__-2.1__101__120__17.1

sunflower3

Sunflower3___9.3__21.4__-2.7__90__100__13, 9

mrskinner

Skinner____8.5____20.1___-2.1___96___105____16.2

Gonzo

Gonzo ________ 9.1 __ 20.4 __ -2.2 __ 078 __ 112 ___ 14.3

Joe Public

Joe Public ________ 9.1 _ 22.4 _ -3.9 _ 092 _ 120 ___ 15.5

a bit late, I feel like a fool for the day that's in it 🙂

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for April 2023

FORECASTER ______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Oak Park 9th

Kindred Spirit ______________ 9.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.8 _ 083 _ 112 ___ 15.3

Sunflower3 ________________ 9.3 _ 21.4 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 13.9

Dacogawa _________________ 9.2 _ 22.4 _ -1.3 _ 064 _ 110 ___ 13.2

Joe Public ___ (-4) __________ 9.1 _ 22.4 _ -3.9 _ 092 _ 120 ___ 15.5

Tae laidir __________________ 9.1 _ 21.1 _ -2.9 _ 118 _ 101 ___ 13.7

Gonzo ______ (-2) __________9.1 _ 20.4 _ -2.2 _ 078 _ 112 ___ 14.3

Pauldry ___________________ 9.1 _ 19.4 _ -2.1 _ 101 _ 120 ___ 17.1

Adam240610 ______________ 9.0 _ 19.8 _ -1.8 _ 093 _ 102 ___ 14.1

Bsal ______________________8.9 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 097 _ 104 ___ 15.0

Appledrop _________________ 8.9 _ 19.2 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 13.5

Mr Stonewall _______________8.7 _ 19.5 _ -2.2 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 14.2

john mac __________________8.6 _ 21.6 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 15.4

___ Con Sensus ____________ 8.6 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 092 _ 108 ___ 14.3

200motels _________________8.6 _ 21.3 _ -2.1 _ 089 _ 101 ___ 16.8

DOCARCH _________________ 8.5 _ 20.2 _ -0.9 _ 092 _ 110 ___ 15.1

MrSkinner ___ (-1) __________8.5 _ 20.1 _ -2.1 _ 096 _ 105 ___ 16.2

sryanbruen ________________ 8.5 _ 19.6 _ -4.1 _ 085 _ 100 ___ 14.6

waterways _________________8.4 _ 22.0 _ -3.0 _ 099 _ 109 ___ 12.0

___ NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.8

WolfeEire __________________8.4 _ 19.1 _ -3.0 _ 080 _ 108 ___ 14.3

Rameire __________________ 8.3 _ 20.0 _ -1.1 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.6

M.T. Cranium ______________ 8.3 _ 19.4 _ -2.5 _ 083 _ 105 ___ 11.7

Dasa29 ___________________ 8.2 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 14.5

Jpmarn ___________________ 8.1 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 _ 075 _ 120 ___ 13.2

Cornerstonelad _____________ 7.9 _ 20.9 _ -3.9 _ 079 _ 120 ___ 14.8

_________________________________

(any later forecasts will be added and Con Sensus adjusted)

DOCARCH

Low of 1.2c yesterday at Athenry.

WolfeEire

High of 15.4c at Roches Point and Moore Park yesterday

Tae laidir

Markee Castle dropped to 0.5 yesterday.

DOCARCH

A couple of -1c's around the place earlier this morning so that Markree temp will be beaten.

M.T. Cranium

Getting ready for the Easter bonus, max at Oak Park, in order of forecasts:

FORECASTER ______________ Oak Park 9th

Pauldry ___________________ 17.1

200motels _________________16.8

MrSkinner _________________ 16.2

Joe Public _________________ 15.5

john mac __________________15.4

Kindred Spirit ______________ 15.3

DOCARCH _________________ 15.1

Bsal ______________________15.0

Cornerstonelad _____________14.8

sryanbruen ________________ 14.6

Dasa29 ___________________14.5

Gonzo ____________________14.3

WolfeEire _________________ 14.3

___ Con Sensus ____________ 14.3

Mr Stonewall _______________14.2

Adam240610 ______________ 14.1

Sunflower3 ________________ 13.9

Tae laidir __________________ 13.7

Rameire ___________________13.6

Appledrop _________________ 13.5

Dacogawa _________________ 13.2

Jpmarn ___________________ 13.2

___ NormaL ________________12.8

waterways _________________ 12.0

M.T. Cranium _______________ 11.7

_________________________________

DOCARCH

Low of -1.4c yesterday and Mount Dillon and Mullingar.

pauldry

Tomorrow looks like a MAX of 12c in Oak Park so yall prob be scoring bottom up MTC. (Me zero!)

M.T. Cranium

After the first week of April ...

IMT on 8.8 which is 0.7 above normal.

MAX 15.7 (Mountdillon 7th) _ no doubt will be higher later anyway

MIN -1.4 (also Mountdillon 7th and Mullingar)

PRC 71% of normal

SUN 98.7% of normal

Bonus awaits tomorrow.

WolfeEire

Max of 12.1c up to midday at Oak Park

M.T. Cranium

The outcome was 12.3 and Pauldry was correct about how this would be scored except that I started the table with scores of 1/10. Generally groups of two but some tighter clusters of three similar scores with 25 forecasts plus Con Sensus and NormaL.

FORECASTER ______________ Oak Park 9th ___ Score

Pauldry ___________________ 17.1 __________ 1

200motels _________________16.8 ___________1

MrSkinner _________________ 16.2 __________ 1

Joe Public _________________ 15.5 ___________2

john mac __________________15.4 ___________2

Kindred Spirit ______________ 15.3 ___________2

DOCARCH _________________ 15.1 ___________3

Bsal ______________________15.0 ___________3

Cornerstonelad _____________14.8 ___________ 3

sryanbruen ________________ 14.6 ___________4

Dasa29 ___________________14.5 ___________ 4

Gonzo ____________________14.3 ___________ 5

WolfeEire _________________ 14.3 ___________ 5

___ Con Sensus ____________ 14.3 ___________ 5

Mr Stonewall _______________14.2 ___________ 6

Adam240610 ______________ 14.1 ___________ 6

Sunflower3 ________________ 13.9 ___________ 7

Tae laidir __________________ 13.7 ___________ 7

Rameire ___________________13.6 ___________ 8

Appledrop _________________ 13.5 ___________ 8

Dacogawa _________________ 13.2 ___________ 9

Jpmarn ___________________ 13.2 ____________9

___ NormaL ________________12.8 ___________10

waterways _________________ 12.0 __________ 10

M.T. Cranium _______________ 11.7 __________ 10

_________________________________

appledrop

Thanks M.T a good few 12 recorded throughout the day at Oak Park so we will have to wait and see what the highest one is.

Happy Easter everyone🐣

M.T. Cranium

Meteociel says 12.3, but we won't know for sure until Met E confirm that. Also having a dull weather day here, snow very slowly disappearing from the neighbour's lawn, robins finding enough bare ground to keep them interested. A bit cooler here though, 5 C. Our normal probably passes your normal around mid-April and stays ahead until mid-October. This past winter we started with a sudden reversal and the winter has been with us ever since about the 20th of October although it feels vaguely spring-like here now (until you look around). Down in the nearby Columbia valley, no snow left down there at all and grass greening up, but no sign of any budding activity around here. Down at the coast they have cherry blossoms out and trees are coming along. How about there? Trees opening out yet?

mr.stonewall

Tree buds are slowly opening a subtle thing of green coming back to hedgerows. The sudden swings in coolness of temps to a bit of warmth. Is holding things back.

On the important front, personally grass growth is running behind by about about a week to 10 days. The impact of march on soil moisture deficits has been huge and will take a bit do time to sort a spring drying.

M.T. Cranium

The scoring posted earlier has been confirmed above, from 12.3 C. Waterways at 12.0 had the closest forecast. NormaL was 0.5 off and I was 0.6 low. Dacogawa and JPmarn were 0.9 higher at 13.2.

pauldry

-2.5c Mullingar

Tae laidir

Must have been corrected.

Only shows -0.1 now.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476733#Comment_120476733

The -2.5C was this morning which will be shown tomorrow.

DOCARCH

Min. of -2.6c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120480045#Comment_120480045

Says -2.7C now.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 8.2, with the second week average 7.6, 0.8 below normal.

MAX 15.4 and MIN -2.7

PRC up to 131% after a wet second week (190%). This guarantees an outcome of at least 60% plus whatever else falls.

SUN at 96% of normal with the second week average at 93%.

BONUS already scored (Oak Park 12.3 C on 9th),

I would imagine about half the field would be happy to see the established MIN hold on, but just for fun I will post a table of what each forecaster needs to maximize their score for April. (separate post in a few minutes)

M.T. Cranium

Required averages or outcomes for maximum scoring

As mentioned in previous post, these are the values you would need to maximize your score; they refer to the interval 15th to 30th. Every forecaster retains the same maximum as we are nowhere near it yet. For MIN, either a score or a future lower minimum is shown. Also your bonus score is shown. Late penalties are included in the final entry, your potential score if all the second half outcomes work out.

FORECASTER ______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___BONUS __ Score (max possible)

Kindred Spirit _____________ 10.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.8 _ 040 _ 130 ___ (02) ____ 92

Sunflower3 _______________ 10.3 _ 21.4 _ (20) _ 050 _ 106 ___ (07) ____ 97

Dacogawa ________________ 10.2 _ 22.4 _ (06) _ 000 _ 126 ___ (09) ____ 85

Joe Public ___ (-4) _________ 10.1 _ 22.4 _ -3.9 _ 054 _ 145 ___ (02) ____ 88

Tae laidir _________________ 10.1 _ 21.1 _ -2.9 _ 098 _ 108 ___ (07) ____ 97

Gonzo ______ (-2) _________ 10.1 _ 20.4 _ (15) _ 026 _ 130 ___ (05) ____ 88

Pauldry __________________ 10.1 _ 19.4 _ (14) _ 070 _ 145 ___ (01) ____ 85

Adam240610 ______________10.0 _ 19.8 _ (11) _ 056 _ 110 ___ (06) ____ 87

Bsal ______________________9.5 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 064 _ 114 ___ (03) ____ 93

Appledrop _________________ 9.5 _ 19.2 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 087 ___ (08) ____ 98

Mr Stonewall _______________9.2 _ 19.5 _ (15) _ 020 _ 126 ___ (06) ____ 91

john mac __________________8.9 _ 21.6 _ -3.1 _ 120 _ 116 ___ (02) ____ 92

___ Con Sensus ____________ 8.9 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 054 _ 120 ___ (05) ____ 95

200motels _________________8.9 _ 21.3 _ (14) _ 048 _ 109 ___ (01) ____ 85

DOCARCH _________________ 8.8 _ 20.2 _ (02) _ 054 _ 126 ___ (03) ____ 75

MrSkinner ___ (-1) __________8.8 _ 20.1 _ (14) _ 062 _ 116 ___ (01) ____ 84

sryanbruen ________________ 8.8 _ 19.6 _ -4.1 _ 040 _ 107 ___ (04) ____ 94

waterways _________________8.7 _ 22.0 _ -3.0 _ 068 _ 124 ___ (10) ___ 100

___ NormaL ________________8.6 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 070 _ 107 ___ (10) ___ 100

WolfeEire __________________8.6 _ 19.1 _ -3.0 _ 030 _ 122 ___ (05) ____ 95

Rameire __________________ 8.4 _ 20.0 _ (04) _ 060 _ 091 ___ (08) ____ 82

M.T. Cranium ______________ 8.4 _ 19.4 _ (18) _ 036 _ 116 ___ (10) ____ 98

Dasa29 ___________________8.2 _ 19.0 _ (13) _ 070 _ 126 ___ (04) ____ 87

Jpmarn ___________________8.1 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 _ 020 _ 145 ___ (09) ____ 99

Cornerstonelad _____________8.0 _ 20.9 _ -3.9 _ 028 _ 145 ___ (03) ____ 93

______________________________________

Your maximum possible score if MIN does not get colder and you are at a colder value is your current "maximum possible score" minus 1 point per 0.1 your MIN is below -2.7; e.g. Appledrop is at 97 instead of 98, JPmarn is at 88 instead of 99, if MIN does not move down.

_________________________________

pauldry

It's over 20c in Shannon and Athenry currently

Scratch that Mt Dillon now 21c giving it the min and max for month.

DOCARCH

High of 21.4c yesterday at Mount Dillon.

M.T. Cranium

Updated potential scoring table

See the previous version for details, this new version accounts for the MAX of 21.4 reported yesterday. As with MIN, you either see a score for that, or a future value you would prefer. If we don't increase on 21.4, your potential score would drop in the same way that was explained for MIN not changing later.

FORECASTER ______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___BONUS __ Score (max possible)

Kindred Spirit _____________ 10.4 _ (06) _ -2.8 _ 040 _ 130 ___ (02) ____ 78

Sunflower3 _______________ 10.3 _ (20) _ (20) _ 050 _ 106 ___ (07) ____ 97

Dacogawa ________________ 10.2 _ 22.4 _ (06) _ 000 _ 126 ___ (09) ____ 85

Joe Public ___ (-4) _________ 10.1 _ 22.4 _ -3.9 _ 054 _ 145 ___ (02) ____ 88

Tae laidir _________________ 10.1 _ (17) _ -2.9 _ 098 _ 108 ___ (07) ____ 94

Gonzo ______ (-2) _________ 10.1 _ (10) _ (15) _ 026 _ 130 ___ (05) ____ 78

Pauldry __________________ 10.1 _ (00) _ (14) _ 070 _ 145 ___ (01) ____ 65

Adam240610 ______________10.0 _ (04) _ (11) _ 056 _ 110 ___ (06) ____ 71

Bsal ______________________9.5 _ (06) _ -3.0 _ 064 _ 114 ___ (03) ____ 79

Appledrop _________________ 9.5 _ (00) _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 087 ___ (08) ____ 78

Mr Stonewall _______________9.2 _ (01) _ (15) _ 020 _ 126 ___ (06) ____ 72

john mac __________________8.9 _ 21.6 _ -3.1 _ 120 _ 116 ___ (02) ____ 92

___ Con Sensus ____________ 8.9 _ (07) _ -2.8 _ 054 _ 120 ___ (05) ____ 82

200motels _________________8.9 _ (19) _ (14) _ 048 _ 109 ___ (01) ____ 84

DOCARCH _________________ 8.8 _ (08) _ (02) _ 054 _ 126 ___ (03) ____ 63

MrSkinner ___ (-1) __________8.8 _ (07) _ (14) _ 062 _ 116 ___ (01) ____ 71

sryanbruen ________________ 8.8 _ (02) _ -4.1 _ 040 _ 107 ___ (04) ____ 76

waterways _________________8.7 _ 22.0 _ -3.0 _ 068 _ 124 ___ (10) ___ 100

___ NormaL ________________8.6 _ (11) _ -3.0 _ 070 _ 107 ___ (10) ____ 91

WolfeEire __________________8.6 _ (00) _ -3.0 _ 030 _ 122 ___ (05) ____ 75

Rameire __________________ 8.4 _ (06) _ (04) _ 060 _ 091 ___ (08) ____ 68

M.T. Cranium ______________ 8.4 _ (00) _ (18) _ 036 _ 116 ___ (10) ____ 78

Dasa29 ___________________8.2 _ (00) _ (13) _ 070 _ 126 ___ (04) ____ 67

Jpmarn ___________________8.1 _ (01) _ -3.8 _ 020 _ 145 ___ (09) ____ 80

Cornerstonelad _____________8.0 _ (15) _ -3.9 _ 028 _ 145 ___ (03) ____ 88

______________________________________

Your maximum possible score if MIN does not get colder and you are at a colder value is your current "maximum possible score" minus 1 point per 0.1 your MIN is below -2.7; e.g. Appledrop is at 97 instead of 98, JPmarn is at 88 instead of 99, if MIN does not move down. The same logic applies to the new MAX of 21.4. However, if we do see a warmer MAX there will likely be a boost required.

Congrats to sunflower3 who so far has hit both MAX and MIN on the actual values to date.

Note: as we get rain, some of the lowest required rainfalls will be exceeded and actual scores will begin to replace those lowest values, if I do update this table again before end of the month.

Jpmarn

This little place in Co. Roscommon gets on the map when it comes to temperature. Mt. Dillon so far is the hottest and coldest place this month responsible for both MAX and MIN.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT is 9.0, third week average 10.1 C (1.3 above normal).

MAX 21.4 and MIN -2.7

PRC is now 95% of normal, after quite a dry week (24% of normal). This raises the guaranteed outcome to at least 67%.

SUN is up to 108% of normal, with this past week quite bright (133.3%).

BONUS already scored from 12.3 C ...

... will update the best possible scoring information next.