Is Elon Musk hurting Tesla? (Mod Note Post #1)

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123138326#Comment_123138326

It's a meme stock, nothing more

People buy it because they think it'll double in value

Enough people believe that that the stock doubles in value

Connection to any kind of rational assessment of the value of the company's assets has gone out the window long ago

If literally every single future project got delivered in 2025 then that would still create nowhere near enough revenue to justify the market cap

CMOTDibbler

To be fair it did double in value.

After it halved in value.

Padraig Mor

I don't think supercharging contributes in any meaningful way to Tesla's profits. I saw a good analysis of the figures last week (can't remember where) and it doesn't look good at all. While a ~$7 billion profit sounds good, a large proportion (nearly a half IIRC) of that was made up of selling carbon credits to other manufacturers - something which Trump apparently has promised to end. Big wedge too from some one off tax accounting change, and also from their bitcoin holdings. IIRC profit attributed to selling cars was less than half the total (maybe even less than $3 billion), and dropping sharply.

CMOTDibbler

That graphic on the last page that I posted is a bit hard to read. Somebody got a bit carried away and probably made it more opaque. Have tabulated the figures below. By a process of elimination I think I've isolated the SuC income and expense. Open to correction, but there aren't many other options in there. Non-core income (Carbon credits, interest and other) total $4.7B, 65% of net profit.

	$ Billion
Car sales	72.5
Leasing	1.8
Carbon credits	2.8
Total car	77.1
Energy generation/storage	10.1
Services (SuC?)	10.5
Total Revenue	97.7
Car mfg costs		62.9
Energy costs		7.4
Service costs (SuC?)		9.9
Total costs		80.2
Gross profit	17.5
Selling & Admin		5.2
R & D		4.5
Restructuring		0.7
		10.4
Operating profit	7.1
Interest	1.6
Other	0.3
Tax	-1.8
Net profit	7.2

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123140156#Comment_123140156

Yeah. Tax cuts for the rich that Trump initiated in 2017 sunset this year. These were ridiculous cuts that allowed the rich to get tax write offs on super yachts and private jets. It cost $4 trillion. So Musk's 'department' has the job of finding that money in order to renew the tax cuts.

somenergy

Report by bloomberg say sales down 80% in Germany citing election interference.

Stock futures down nearly 2% in the futures

Politics business lifestyle not the karp/jenson/cook way

yagan

Interesting round up of UK sales figures for 2024 with the Model Y topping the EV market, but Tesla only saw 1.54% for the year, whereas BYD saw growth of 650% from 2023.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/uk-2024-car-sales-analysis-winners-and-losers/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20remains%20the%20UK's%20most,per%20cent%20of%20Kia's%20volume.

I couldn't find a profile breakdown to back up a claim I'd seen that nearly all of BYD first time buyers were under 55 years of age, while older EV buyers were more likely to stick with Tesla. Like the Huawei ban I can see Musk getting Trump to ban all Chinese brands, even if they plan to set up production in the USA.

Before Trump Huawei ban Apple phones were about 30% of the market, now they're 60%. It was interesting that after the Huawei ban Apple removed the "assembled in China" from the back of their phones. While Tesla is still important in the Chinese market the competition is fierce so at least if he gets Trump to do another Huawei by banning all Chinese car brands then he'll feel Tesla will enjoy an Apple scale dominance in the USA.

liamog

Mod Note: A few more posts removed for going outside the lines set in post #1. Please read the notes, if you are unsure as to whether it will be allowed PM me

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123139844#Comment_123139844

Do the SuC profits there account for the opening of the superchargers to other cars though? There was a lot of costs last year on Superchargers in the USA retrofitting them to allow other cars to charge. This year, with the opening to other brands, we should see a boost to that

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123140288#Comment_123140288

What you see there is what you get. There's no granularity to that level, but I would have thought that that was a capital cost and wouldn't hit the P&L except via depreciation.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123140306#Comment_123140306

The fact they were profiting at all from the supercharger network, despite all the free charging and being closed until recently to other cars speaks volumes I think

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123140344#Comment_123140344

Oh yeah, it makes money alright. But it's never going to be significant. They make more from interest.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123140250#Comment_123140250

US is already looking to ban any vehicle with software made in China, that effectively all Chinese brands including ones manufactured in the states

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/23/tech/us-car-software-ban-china-russia/index.html

It'd be interesting to see if they can get around the rules by hosting services in the US

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123140646#Comment_123140646

That wouldn't include cars with Android Automotive I presume? Google software.

sk8board

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/02/06/tesla-sales-plummet-across-europe/

(Edited slightly for brevity)

The world’s largest EV maker in January registered only 1,277 new cars in Germany, a drop of 59 per cent. Tesla’s drop came as the German EV market in January grew more than 50 per cent year on year, pushing its market share down from 14 to 4 per cent.

In France, Tesla sales were down 63 per cent in January, while registrations of Tesla cars in Norway fell 38 per cent. In the UK, registrations declined 8 per cent from a year earlier.

Sleepy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123138364#Comment_123138364

And monsters tend to get slayed. Musk will do well to avoid being shot alongside his orange buddy during the next 4 years.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123140948#Comment_123140948

We'd need to see the order volume before making a judgement, sales decline could be down to the updated Model Y

Tesla of course won't disclose that, so we'll need to wait and see how the next few months go

No doubt many Europeans are a lot more wary of billionaires so obviously meddling in politics, but it's still hard to be sure that's translating into a sales hit

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123140666#Comment_123140666

Presumably not, although I'm sure the US government will find some nuance to ban Chinese cars using Android anyway

Personally I'm fine with governments taking measures to increase data privacy, but let's be honest, this is trade protectionism.

If the US government was concerned about their citizens privacy they'd be doing more to protect them from their own tech giants

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141117#Comment_123141117

With the amount of security around it's very unlikely to happen. Elon is always surrounded by bodyguards. It's the same for any ceo of a behemoth of companies.

I just think it would be best for all concerned if Elon were to move on and let someone else be CEO. Move on and play with robotics and AI and tax cuts. Leave tesla cars and charging to folks that arent toxic AF.

Look at X, I wouldn't advertise there for free for instance.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141119#Comment_123141119

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141119#Comment_123141119

the 3 has been refreshed since last Jan too, so it’s swings and roundabouts.

Also the Y was only announced Jan 9, and this is Jan deliveries, so unless almost every Y cancelled their order (which let’s face it they didn’t), then the fall is fairly real

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141136#Comment_123141136

Also ironic considering Tesla are the world's largest data guzzlers from their cars.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141119#Comment_123141119

Those sort of cliff edge drops are not down to the transition of the Model Y. Makers introduce new or revised models all the time, it doesn't precipitate calamitous falls in sales. Besides, the run-out Model Y is still available and still being delivered new.

These sales drops in Europe are pure customer sentiment. Worth highlighting that Spain is down 75% Year on Year!

That's existential stuff for Tesla, in some markets at least.

Sleepy

It would be best for all of humanity if Elon swallowed a bullet but an egomaniac like him is unlikely to do the world that favour.

He may be surrounded by bodyguards but, if we're look at the ease with which Luigi Mangione took out Brian Thomson or, if you're inclined to believe the near miss on Trump during the election campaign wasn't a false flag, all security can do is lessen the chances of an assassination. Musk must be in the top 10 most hated men on the planet at this stage. If Paddy Power were to offer odds on him being taken out, I reckon it'd be well worth the punt (and who wouldn't love to claim that win!).

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141197#Comment_123141197

Didn't almost exactly that happen with the 3 refresh? A bunch of people cancelled their reservations and reserved the newer version?

To be clear, I'm not saying that Elon's actions aren't having a significant negative impact on Tesla sales in Europe, I'm just saying he isn't the only factor

MojoMaker

How are Tesla sales in January being counted exactly?

One year they had a single solitary January sale (delivery). This year the January deliveries are actually up on last year in Ireland, with the Lion's share of the Q1 deliveries due in March as usual.

In other countries the recording mechanism may be different of course.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141243#Comment_123141243

Theres zero evidence of 40 to 75 percent drops on sales orders for model revisions of the past. This stuff is tangible and it's real. It's what has been said about him since he took over Twitter. Down hill since then and heading into free fall in latter 2024.

Its head in the sand stuff now pointing out competition in the market etc.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141261#Comment_123141261

Hot off the press from the UK where BYD sales overtook Tesla for the first time.

Chinese electric car titan BYD has overtaken Tesla in British sales for the first time as public opinion sours towards Elon Musk.

BYD sold 1,614 passenger cars last month, with Tesla selling just 1,458 by comparison, according to data published by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The figures represented a 500pc annual increase for BYD, while Tesla’s sales were down about 8pc.

It marks the first time that BYD has outsold Tesla on a monthly basis.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-rival-overtakes-tesla-britain-163418539.html

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123142017#Comment_123142017

BYD Sales include PHEV and Hyrbrd or only BEV's?

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123142027#Comment_123142027

That article didn't say, but if the UK range is the same as here the Seal U is only just out.

Were BYD selling many other models than we have?

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123142046#Comment_123142046

Not sure, the SMMT site is not as easy as our Beep stats page but I could be missing some filters.

I think BYD as a car company outsold Tesla in too so now new news there tbh.