Is Elon Musk hurting Tesla? (Mod Note Post #1)

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123135308#Comment_123135308

Do you own any Tesla shares or cars?

Not trying to be cheeky but it is a hollow threat if your buying intentions were always negative

If you did intend to purchase either and are put off by Elon then that represents a negative outcome to Tesla

As for the Americans, they made their beds, now they get to lie in it as far as I'm concerned. It's the rest of the world that you should be worrying about

somenergy

I was a tesla shareholder biggly in 2020

I have popped in and out several times, I am an investor but since his now (musk) presidency I see a distraction.

The stock has always been a roller coaster with musk the trump bounce could help it further but I am not convinced.

«mod note: thread is for musk and tesla, don't stray too far into US politics»

liamog

No I won't be invested any more or buy an electric car especially a teasla even though I have heard good reports.

I can understand the not investing in the company or choosing not to buy a Tesla because of what Elon Musk's been doing. But I find it bizarre to say you won't buy any car from any manufacturer with a particular drive train for that same reason.

There's plenty of other manufacturers out there with lots of decent offerings. Boycott's work when people move to alternative sources, not when they weren't going to buy in the first place.

sk8board

The problem with habitual liars as CEO is that you have to deliver ‘something’ eventually. As someone said above, it’s a bit like a ponzi.

Musk is still jumping from Lilly pad to lily pad promising new things.

At worst Tesla is a company with 2 cars and a growing energy storage business. Which is huge in itself, but not $1.2tn huge - so how do you keep justifying the share price - by promising the next big thing is just around the corner. Simple.

Imagine how much promotion and column inches the cybertruck got over the years, to deliver just 47,000 units in its first full year and already inventory is starting to build up. The development costs will never ever be recouped. Likewise with the semi (36 customer units delivered) and roadster (never being delivered, and surpassed by so many other fast EV hype cars that it turns out no one wants).

Deflect and announce the ‘next big thing’, over and over - and all the while 90% of revenues come from 2 aging cars that people are beginning to think might be enabling a narcissistic monster :)

somenergy

I am a petrol head so I am biased

But I think Elons actions while its ceo and x owner has tainted the brand imo.

Where an electric can car has more data and video collection than my v6 which sounds all so sweet.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136067#Comment_123136067

I agree, but it's like a religion at this point. There's enough people bought into the idea that the share price will go up that it becomes a self fulfilling guessing.. Relation to actual company performance is at best a secondary consideration

At a larger scale, tech shares have been going up for over 15 years and people have been saying all along they're going to crash

It'll crash at some point no doubt, but at this stage anyone who says they can predict when is just guessing. It could be 2025, 2026, 2030 or 2050 for all anyone knows

Red Silurian

I think people seem to forget that Tesla is more than just a car company.

Their supercharger network will be a consistent source of funds even if they sell 0 cars in all of 2025. Opening the network to other brand EVs means people no longer need to buy a Tesla to provide profit to the company. Yes the company is vastly over-valued but as long as it keeps diversifying its business there's only so far it can drop

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136901#Comment_123136901

Yep, Tesla isn't a car company. it's a mobility services provider that's used the sales of vehicles to fund its development project and has convinced people to pay to beta test it's software. The share price has always reflected that.

pah

Ordered a model 3 almost a year ago, took delivery in August. It's a fantastic car.

I knew when I bought that Elon was a bit of a gowl but if I was in the position of looking to buy now I wouldn't go near a Tesla.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137073#Comment_123137073

No, it's a car company. If it didn't sell cars it never would have made superchargers

CMOTDibbler

Does the supercharger network bring in much net revenue? Would have thought it would be small enough given the cost of installation and electricity.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137384#Comment_123137384

Interesting reddit thread on Tesla's 2024 company filing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1ihxct5/oc_teslas_full_year_earnings_visualized/

Top comment is:

At this rate it will take Tesla well over 100 years to generate 1 trillion in profit. Yet it’s already a trillion dollar company with negative growth.

CMOTDibbler

Great graphic on that thread

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137073#Comment_123137073

I’m genuinely getting tired of this argument.

Tesla is about 20+ years old. In its entire history, all revenue has come from cars, and more recently about 10% from the energy business.

All of the future stuff had been future stuff since the companies inception - they say it’s all coming ‘this year’, every year.

It trades at a p/e today of 115.

For come context, the other big software companies look like this:

Microsoft: 33

Nvidia: 46

Alphabet: 27

Apple: 36

Just like Tesla, all 4 have massive elements of future/unknown projects built into those share prices - the assumption that a company with massive success in delivering new revenue streams that we haven’t even thought about yet, will continue to do so.

Tesla have delivered nothing but cars so far, and has future p/e of 115.

That’s all you need to know when anyone tells you that Tesla isn’t a car company - I don’t think it’s just a car company either btw, but it’s not priced as a tech company either.

So what is it?

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137384#Comment_123137384

It would be small enough by comparison to the price of a car but with 7,000 stations worldwide with 65,000 connections I'd say there's quite a profit to be had

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137871#Comment_123137871

didn’t they let the whole supercharger team go last year as part of cost cutting?

At the time I remember people suggesting it’s not all that profitable, esp when their sales pitch in the US reintroduced supercharging, to spur flagging sales.

Giving away electricity is expensive

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137871#Comment_123137871

I was hoping for something more specific. But I see in the accounts above an item labelled 'Services' at $10.1B and a corresponding entry under Cost of revenue labelled 'Energy' at $7.4B and another labelled 'Cost of service' at $9.6B.

So I'd assume the SUC network and its costs are hidden in there somewhere.

yagan

It doesn't take a car company to provide the best supercharger network. Lidl or Aldi are well positioned to provide supercharging in their carparks right throughout Europe.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137883#Comment_123137883

That wasn't cost-cutting, it was Musk being a dope. They had them all re-hired a few weeks later

Musk once said Tesla could make no profit from cars and make it all on the Supercharger network and self-driving software.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137904#Comment_123137904

But Aldi and Lidl don't manufacture superchargers. Tesla do

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137910#Comment_123137910

you lost me at “Musk once said” …

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137904#Comment_123137904

Not just Lidl and Aldi. Look at the big chains like Leclerc and InterMarché that already have filling station networks at their supermarkets.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137861#Comment_123137861

It's the only thing that makes sense to me, as a car company the market has them massively overvalued. Rightly or wrongly their forward-looking statements still seem to have market confidence or at least have enough people who are so far in that they can't pull out.

I'm still of the opinion that if Tesla ever crack the robotaxi service they will almost immediately stop selling vehicles and instead be the vertically integrated provider of local mobility.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123138326#Comment_123138326

I agree with you - but it’s the lies around timing is the biggest problem. They’re not even remotely optimistic - and remember musk knows full well when he says these things that they’re not going to happen and he’ll need something else to deflect.

Last week on a financial result call in which he has legal fiduciary duty as CEO, he said they expected a return to 20-30% sales growth this year, and 7 days later we can see he knew he was lying through his teeth, but it won’t be remember in 12 months time.

Tesla deliver nothing. Literally nothing. Apart from cars.

Tesla’s share price could crash 70% and they’d still be overvalued compared to the other magnificent 7 trillion dollar tech companies delivering on their sh1t for decades and decades.

The cult element is creating a meme of the stock

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123138348#Comment_123138348

Brings it right back to some players keeping him afloat via investment. As soon as he becomes non useful. You'll see the price dropping. Don't forget the faceless investment firms that hold the stock are investing on behalf of individuals. big ones.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123138358#Comment_123138358

it’s too late for that - he’s too big to fail now. They’ve created a monster.

TitianGerm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137871#Comment_123137871

Just guess work or do you have figures?

CMOTDibbler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123138468#Comment_123138468

I found what I think are the figures above.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123136901#Comment_123136901

I dunno if Superchargers are quite enough of a gold mine to justify the share price.

Most other MSPs seem to struggle to turn a significant profit. I know Tesla can install charging stations at a much lower cost but they also charge less per kWh

I get what you're saying that a lot of Tesla's assets go beyond the car. The charging network, their work with self driving, advances in manufacturing automation, robotics and AI to name a few

This is most likely what has been keeping the share price buoyant for years beyond just the meme of Tesla shares being a rollercoaster

Its all based on some future payoff that those technologies will become market disruptors and fundamentally shift things in Tesla's favour

However, there's a lot of question marks over when and how big a payoff that would be

Self driving for example seems to be permanently "coming next year" and at best might become available in some select areas of the US soon. So that unlocks the Robotaxi, but how many people in central Austin, Texas are going to be looking for a taxi for themselves and exactly one passenger?

That's before the inevitable vandalism from out of work Uber drivers comes in, nothing to stop them filling a robotaxi with garbage or setting it on fire. It's also before the inevitable road fatality which puts a question mark over any expansion plans

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123137910#Comment_123137910

Elon says a lot of things that don't happen

https://elonmusk.today/