FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Donegal Ken · 05-12-2022 09:13AM

Based on yesterday evening Ecmwf model run it was out on its own campared to the other members. Think many were expecting it to come back on board this morning.

almostthere12 · 05-12-2022 05:49PM

Just for fun at 282hrs the GFS 12z is snowmageddon for the south with those lows brushing the south coast but the cold air staying in-situ!

Gonzo · 05-12-2022 05:57PM

I think we are right back where we started looking deep into FI for something snowy. GFS 12z certainly keeps the general cold theme going well into next week and possibly beyond. Temperatures all through the working week next week may struggle to get much above 2C. Wetterzentrale is proving very difficult and slow right now like as if I'm back on dial up connection. Must be alot of interest from cold weather fans all over Ireland and the UK.

sicknotexi · 05-12-2022 06:01PM

I'd take the GFS, potential for serious sneachta for most of the southern half of the island in 10 days time. If the low was to run into that entrenched cold.

Gonzo · 05-12-2022 06:12PM

GEM 12z keeps us very chilly throughout next week and possibly an increasing risk of snow after next weekend.

GFS 12z keeps us cold until December 20th with a lift up in temperatures possible as we enter Christmas week.

SleetAndSnow · 05-12-2022 07:56PM

*Just for fun and will 99% not happen* with the GFS 12Z snow chart

FI seems to be about 96hrs atm, every model showing different things

almostthere12 · 05-12-2022 07:58PM

Has the ECM beat the GFS to the pub tonight? - 8 uppers next week as the low approaches

nacho libre · 05-12-2022 08:00PM

I've seen worse charts😀

This is similar to the GEM with what it does with the transfer of the Vortex to the Aisan side. You would think we are going back in the freezer shortly after this.

SleetAndSnow · 05-12-2022 08:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119960753#Comment_119960753

Is that a ... chunk of actual polar vortex off the UK coast😁? Not a bad FI chart

John.Icy · 05-12-2022 11:22PM

Not too bad from the 18z tonight, quite large changes quite early on in this run - indicative of the uncertainty ahead. The subtle shift to an easterly wind has much colder air than the 12z on its March towards the UK, and us.

Azores LP stalling further west on this run than 12z.

JanuarySnowstor · 05-12-2022 11:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961730#Comment_119961730

Not too bad, lol ?

It doesn't get any better than this for Ireland, IF the 18z were right

OK not as extreme uppers wise as 2010 or 2018, but with low thickness, minus 6 uppers, low dew points, and evaporative cooling & very low minima at night that's more than not bad. It's extremely good! (Of course the 18z may not have it right)

Gonzo · 05-12-2022 11:36PM

The GFS 18z is really having a go at turning this upcoming cold spell into something much colder indeed with daytime temperatures going sub zero beyond December 13th and night time temperatures not far off -10C. Southern and eastern areas in particular looking very chilly indeed.

From the 13th to the 16th is an absolute freeze up on this particular run and currently this is as far as we get to as the GFS is still rolling out. These sort of temperatures if they verified would cause 1980s style freezing and burst pipes along with windows icing up. We shall know in a while if this is an extremely cold outlier.

SleetAndSnow · 05-12-2022 11:40PM

What's interesting is this change on the GFS is starting on T120. Now it could just be typical pub run, or else the GFS has picked up a new trend!

WolfeEire · 05-12-2022 11:51PM

It's not called FI for no reason

Gonzo · 05-12-2022 11:54PM

and the cold just keeps on going. This GFS run is on the floor with pint glasses smashed to pieces and leaking beer all over the tables, chairs and floor .

Will the mild air to the left eventually take over or will these north-easterlies just keep on coming all the way to Christmas Day.

TheMilkyPirate · 05-12-2022 11:58PM

18Z freezing all the way out to Christmas week. Get the thermals on

nacho libre · 06-12-2022 12:02AM

Ah it seems to good to be true- the cold just keeps going and going

I bet it's an outlier. I will be very happy if it's not,though.

Gonzo · 06-12-2022 12:03AM

GFS 18z tries to warm things up for about a day and looks like we are about to reload again.

That high pressure over us is moving north-eastwards to possibly unleash a frigid easterly just in time for Christmas. The 00z and 06z are bound to sober up alot after this.

Danno · 06-12-2022 12:10AM

The 18z GFS is 2010 repeated in reverse.

We start with a northerly, then end up easterly.

pauldry · 06-12-2022 12:13AM

In terms of overall temperature looks like coldest December since 2010 likely. Also due a snowy one too so wouldn't be surprised now at either really.

The seasonal forecast last week called for a December and January with a lot of Northerly blocking and It looks likely to start this way at least.

Minus 9.4c is as low as my weather station went in 2010 but it was minus 12c in Sligo that year. Its not ventured below MINUS 6 since. Let's see if this spell does it though inland South and East look colder with wind and more cloud to the North and West

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2022 12:14AM

Interesting bit of weather on the GFS 18Z if those charts verified from the weekend into the early days of next week, frontal snow , troughs , LP moving down the country and showery troughs following all coming out of Scandinavia ......widespread snow and cold enough to stick. With that kind of set up the GFS is showing very severe frosts and sub zero temperatures by day in places . Showing extreme cold out towards 240hrs, bit of a lull the last couple of days but got intriguing again.

If

Gonzo · 06-12-2022 12:14AM

We finish up on 21st of December still in the freezer and a nice big Scandi high.

If this run was to verify it's pretty much sub zero temperatures for parts of the country from this weekend almost all the way to Christmas. This is very unlikely to verify but we shall see.

nacho libre · 06-12-2022 12:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961870#Comment_119961870

Well, if we did have extensive snowfields by that stage , it will be hard to shift the entrenched cold. I think our chances of clinging on to the cold or at least a snowy breakdown would increase if any attempt is along a south west to north east axis, rather than from a westerly point.

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2022 12:17AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961945#Comment_119961945

My thoughts exactly, those charts would giving lying snow for days on end.

Danno · 06-12-2022 12:17AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119961870#Comment_119961870

and the cold just keeps on going. This GFS run is on the floor with pint glasses smashed to pieces and leaking beer all over the tables, chairs and floor

LOLs!

Can somebody put the GFS's beer tab on my account! 😂