Does Fianna Fáil have a political future?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119461884#Comment_119461884

yes we need to build up...

in order to implement a functioning repossession process, we must first have adequate supply, repossessing alone wont solve the problem as it does not solve the supply problem, and the occupying humans still need a place to live, i.e. what exactly is being solved by repossession?

....we clearly need to significantly ramp up public supply once again, as the process of largely privatising this supply, has catastrophically failed, but this wont be quick, theres a very good chance we ll still be dealing with serious housing problems going into the next decade....

NOG92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119461719#Comment_119461719

I don't think so tbh. As someone else has already said above, the man's in his seventies and hasn't really shown much aspirations for the leadership of the party.

Having said that, Chambers is seen by many as part of the party's young, up and coming stars. Yet he's arguably more of a conservative and traditionalist than some of the older stock within the party! His siding with the so called prolife faction of the party during the referendum campaign really highlighted this. Furthermore it is just yet another example of how directionless the party is today.

NOG92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119461896#Comment_119461896

Yeah I agree density is needed, particularly in more urban areas if we are to meet our housing need. Yet the general level of NIMBYism in the state is beyond frustrating 🙄 Returning voids and derelict properties is another solution yet which is progressing at a snail's pace.

The chief reason for our ongoing housing woes remains the legacy of awful government policy in this area. If you examine many of the initiatives introduced under FG/FF to deal with housing, they've all been demand led schemes, rather than on the supply side. It's effectively like pouring petrol on the flames 😒

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119462553#Comment_119462553

Yes, just a thought. I was trying to think of a possible new/very old direction as they need a shot in the arm. Coming along with 'the IRA did this and that' will continue to fail as a strategy. They need to offer something and not being FG won't cut it I imagine.

Dyr

FF FG SF have a very rosy future.

The Irish not so much

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119462764#Comment_119462764

Surely the woke Warrior Queens in Labour and the Soppy Dems will rally to save auld Oirland from the breaker's yard?

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119462855#Comment_119462855

"Ireland, without her people is nothing to me, and the man who is bubbling over with love and enthusiasm for ‘Ireland’, and can yet pass unmoved through our streets and witness all the wrong and the suffering, the shame and the degradation wrought upon the people of Ireland, aye, wrought by Irishmen upon Irishmen and women, without burning to end it, is, in my opinion, a fraud and a liar in his heart, no matter how he loves that combination of chemical elements which he is pleased to call ‘Ireland’. " Founder of the Labour party and obvious xenophobic bigot

Now if you define the "people of Ireland" like Leo does, as the world an his brother, the shower in Doll Ironing are doing a sterling job, by any other definition we're fucked.

lightspeed

What is solved by repossession? In short it would be Increased competition and lower interest rates as result.

It simply does not take years upon years to repossess a property for non payment in other countries. The higher risk any banks take on, the higher the interest rate to correspond with the risk.

Ireland is a very small market and if I'm KBC or Ulster Bank, I have to wait several years in legal fees to repossess the property and even then after all that the customer might obtain a PIA, pay very little and retain the property after other large debts are written off. So even after charging highest interest rates in EU, I still can't make much profit why would I stay?

I wouldn't which is why they have pulled out and sold to the other banks such as BOI and AIB. They will definitely increase their rates now that there is much less competition and they gobbled up their closest competitors.

Some may say this not a matter of politics but it is as government focus too much on doing what is politically popular in short term. The government could acknowledge this huge issue affecting people and pass legislation to allow quicker repossessions but won't because that would be unpopular. However the irony is when people starting paying even higher interest rates they will be on Facebook etc giving out about the government. My point is FF or SF etc will continue to be anti Bank so enjoy paying high interest rates.

Similarly people are saying the government need to do something about lack of rental properties available yet we are so anti landlord we will do nothing to legislate to kick non paying tenants who have not paid their rent for several years as this would be political suicide. So more landlords will continue to leave the market under SF or SF/FF etc

For real change to take place, a government party will need to be willing to commit political suicide by legislating to change the above in addition to high rise housing. It simply will not happen.

lightspeed

I couldn't agree more with the sentiment of pouring petrol on the fire perspective.

Imagine developing the likes of IFSC to compete with other developed cities in the world but not building high rise housing like EVERY other developed country in the world.

Then imagine when the resulting lack of supply you have legislation in place where it can take years for banks to repossess homes and also for landlords to evict non paying tenants.

Then imagine the above is done in a country with a small population where the marginal tax rate is 51%.

Then imagine to top that off you neglect to develop public Infrastructure such as any subway or adequate rail infrastructure in commuting towns.

Now stop imagining because Ireland is a country that has gone above and beyond to make itself different from rest the world by enduring the above is a reality. Aside from having a functioning democracy we are a North Korea of Europe. To me the shamrock, pint of Guinness etc is not what makes us Irish. Doing the opposite of what works everywhere else in the world is what represents us Irish.

Dyr

Ah jaysus, the we-need-high-rise-housing lads are here

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119462553#Comment_119462553

Having said that, Chambers is seen by many as part of the party's young, up and coming stars. Yet he's arguably more of a conservative and traditionalist than some of the older stock within the party! His siding with the so called prolife faction of the party during the referendum campaign really highlighted this.

That was the old JC

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/jack-chambers-ive-changed-my-stance-on-abortion-41699381.html

He's now 'woke Jack', almost as right-on as his namesake Lisa, as opposed to 'waking others Jack'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ireland-green-party-eamon-ryan-workers-rights-video-a9624431.html

NOG92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119464470#Comment_119464470

Yeah I seen that article a few weeks ago and rather enjoyed reading all about his moral epiphany. Like, I understand that it can be an emotive issue and I respect that, but I find his belated change of heart of the matter a bit opportunist. Like I recall watching news clips of the citizens' assembly, and various Oireachtas committees where the reality of online pills and women having unsafe terminations in the home were discussed and I remember having my own position on the issue challenged and evolving during those weeks. So I find it rather hard to believe that Chambers, given he'd have been in the thick of those debates never mind being a medical doctor, has now seen the (woke) light years later...

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119464746#Comment_119464746

Well I think you have to ask how much conviction there was in his prior position if he, along with so many others in FF was prepared to abandon it the monent it became politically inconvenient...

NOG92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119464802#Comment_119464802

My thoughts exactly...👍

Strumms

With the current landscape of Irish politics it’s a fûcking shocking indictment on the Labour Party how ineffectual and non relevant they are for and to the citizens of this country…. Howlin was a dreadful appointment as leader, Kelly too and Bacik following is an altogether continuum of what went before, just with the woke factor turned up to 11….….speaking of the number 11…..they have 4 seats in Dáil Éireann, 7 in the Seanad…..that’s a clear and unambiguous indication of how little faith people have in this Labour Party and Ivana Bacik…

its a shame because I’d like a credible and relatable Labour Party to break the shackles of FF and FG ….

do FF have a future… ? Yes, Martin is a nice guy, good guy, just not a great leader… with covid, now the Russia / Ukraine mess it was there for the taking , not saying Martin did a bad job but he has this air of almost trying to please everyone and not offend anyone… if his nose gets put out of joint it’s more sulky appeasement as opposed to colours to the mast confidence and that could be a resonating appealing factor…

Which is why it’s a pity Labour can’t get their shît together.

NOG92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119464935#Comment_119464935

I get what you're saying about Labour. But I actually think they've regressed under Bacik. Don't get me wrong, Kelly was despised by many. He was arrogant, entitled, argumentative, confrontational, the list goes on. But at least he made people feel something. Whether it was love or (most likely) hate, people were moved by him in some way and by what he had to say. Ivana however, well she doesn't inspire anyone. She's just...blah?...

screamer

I know it’s a tangent but high rise housing is not an answer. There’s something intrinsically wrong in the psyche of a certain demographic of our inhabitants who love everything for free and take care of nothing, which means high rise and high concentrations of them lead to no go areas that no one wants to live in. We are not like all other countries in that regard, and I genuinely believe high rise high concentration in Ireland, whilst attempting to solve a housing crisis will create societal crises.

Strumms

Problem is also a population crisis, that won’t be fixed by any of the above..

NOG92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119465047#Comment_119465047

Well yes there are plenty of examples of poor high rise residential buildings in cities around the globe. But there are also plenty of amazing ones which have transformed and enhanced the lives of the people living in them as well as the wider community. Look at Singapore's Pinnacle building, or indeed at municipal housing projects in Vienna for example. These huge high rise complexes host social spaces for residents, like communal outdoor gyms and play areas and are designed with residents' wellbeing in mind. So I do think high density housing can be successful if done right.

redlough

edit

NOG92

Just for a bit of balance and to get a wider perspective, does anyone on here believe that we're all being a bit too hasty in writing FF off? I mean this is the same party that has dominated politics here for most of the 20th century, and they did technically get the most seats in the last general election, albeit down from 2016 and having received their second worst ever percentage of the vote share. Plus, other parties in Europe who received their marching orders following the 2008 recession such as PSOE in Spain have since managed somewhat of a political revival. Despite being decimated in the subsequent elections much like FF here, PSOE have been slowly regaining support and are in Government there. There's also the fact that FF has a sizeable membership, around 18,000 if the party's own figures are to be believed. It looks inevitable that they'll be crucified by voters at the next GE but could the election after that prove more decisive for them, and could they manage to return from the political wilderness?

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119466850#Comment_119466850

Well a lot of people wrote them off after their 2011 disaster but they bounced back. The apparent difference now is SF have emerged as a third 'big' party, moving onto a lot of FF's old soft Republican, soft left turf. Jim O'Callaghan questioned after the last election whether it was feasible for a political system to support three independent 'big' parties. He didn't add this but it seems to be the logical evolution from that scenario is for two of those parties to form some sort of ongoing alliance or one of them to be pushed to the margins. And FF as the one caught in no-man's land in the middle seems to be the most likely of the three to be marginalised...

NOG92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119467354#Comment_119467354

The prospect of FF and FG just burying the old civil war hatchet and finally merging has long been joked about. However, I don't see their party faithful going for that. I do think many within FF though are very confused about what the party stands for anymore, and I include its own elected reps in that! Then again, if you look throughout its history, the party has straddled both sides of the centre ground at various times, depending on the public mood. They've tipped to both the centre-left and centre-right, even sometimes during the coarse of a single administration whilst in government. They are now to the right of centre ideologically along with FG but it's not sustainable. FG has always occupied that space and there's just simply not enough space for both of them there. So it's no wonder the party is struggling electorally; why would someone vote for what's effectively FG lite, when they can vote FG? This is why I think the party needs to get a grip on the fundamental ideological question, agree to it, and then double down and own it. Personally, I think the only viable option for them now is to plant their flag squarely in the middle ground and to hold on for dear life. Because at the moment they're essentially playing the political hokey cokey and they can't continue to do so ...

astrofool

As a likely partner in the next coalition, of course they have a political future. Whether it lasts beyond that is a different question, they'll have to play the "steady hand at the wheel" and let their partners in the coalition take the flak from the inevitable fall out and political realities of having to make decisions.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119467444#Comment_119467444

Well I think it's more likely that FF will be propping up an SF-led government through some form of confidence and supply than full coalition after the next election. But leaving that aside if you're unhappy with direction of that government why would you be voting for FF at the subsequent election? Isn't that only increasing the likelihood of getting the same thing back again? If your main priority is to get SF out surely FG is your only option?

NOG92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119467505#Comment_119467505

I think FF grass roots have zero appetite for another C&S arrangement, albeit this time around with SF instead of FG, particularly given the seat loss they experienced after the previous C&S ended. This is because under C&S, the party facilitating don't benefit from any positives the government achieve, but do receive a share of any criticism directed at government over its failings. It's a lose-lose for them. That's why I would see a SF/FF gov as being more likely to happen than a SF et al., gov facilitated by FF in opposition.

Podge_irl

Of course they have a future, just not a future where they are the "natural governing party" and consistently the largest party and coming close to individual majorities.

This is not a bad thing really. The next decade or so is going to see a pretty serious realignment of what kind of governments we get I suspect.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119467612#Comment_119467612

Especially when we give 12 year olds the vote.

NOG92

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119467612#Comment_119467612

You touch on an interesting point. And it reminds me of a recent encounter I had with my cousins. They're a lot younger than me and were all born in the mid naughties. The conversation unexpectedly turned to housing and the struggles students face finding places to rent. I remarked how it's awful so many young people are considering emigrating because they're unlikely ever to be able to afford their own place here, how it has echoes of the last time FF/Greens were in gov, and how people will never forgive them for what happened on their watch.

They looked at me with confusion and said, "why? What happened last time?" It then struck me. They were too young to remember it! They were only a few years into Primary school when the economy was driven over the cliff and the IMF was called in. They have no recollection of Garglegate, that Morning Ireland interview. They never heard of Anglo, Seanie or the guarantee.

While not overtly interested in politics, they informed me that the earliest Taoiseach they could recall was Enda Kenny, and that the current government is the only one they have known FF to be in power.

This was a bit of an eye opener for me. I was in first year in college when FG/Labour came to power and FF were up unceremoniously kicked out of Government buildings. For my generation who are in their 30s and 40s now, the party remains toxic because of those Cowen years. But for those in their late teens and even early twenties, they don't feel that loathing like we do. It's therefore very probable that FF could find that its future lies with that generation of voters...

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470619#Comment_119470619

But if they are to sell themselves to that new generation of voters I think FF will have to make a compelling pitch that can't just be "we're not SF; we're not FG; we're someting in between."

Now you might reply FF came back from the debacle of 2011 without necessary offering something hugely fresh or distinctive, but IMO that was laregely traditional voters drifting back to the fold after FG lost their sheen. No guarantee that will happen again as SF have muscled in on a lot of their old turf, seemingly for the long haul...