August 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

sryanbruen

Knew I should have changed my entry yesterday. Never underestimate how wet Newport gets.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1554220984198209540?s=20&t=T11dCm1sIFEi2HCywpYNcg

M.T. Cranium

So, much like my third, fourth, sixth and eleventh marriages, this bonus question is over before most had left the parking lot.

Since there has now been more rain at Newport than our highest forecast(s), I can already score the bonus question, and I did (see table of forecasts).

20th time lucky? I hope so.

DOCARCH

47.5mm at Newport yesterday!

pauldry

While doing well on bonus for once I think I've completely underestimated how warm August is going to be. Next week looks one of the best of the Summer and high temperatures will dominate most of August.

M.T. Cranium

3.8 at Mountdillon on 1st August. Probably won't survive to end but who knows ...

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 15.0, 0.5 below normal.

MAX ?? MIN 3.8

PRC 72% of normal.

SUN 142% of normal (850/600)

BONUS already scored (see table of forecasts), Newport had over 50 mm 1-2.

Tae laidir

Moore Park and Oak Park 24.9 yesterday.

pauldry

Max will be at least 29c by the end of the weekend.

Tae laidir

Moore Park 27.4 yesterday.

Danno

Oak Park 29.2c in front now.

DOCARCH

Oak Park seems to have been revised (for yesterday) to 29.1c

All academic as I am sure that will be easily beaten today/in the coming days.

pauldry

30.5c Oak Park today.

DOCARCH

31.7c at Oak Park yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Second month in a row where MAX exceeded all forecasts although Danno was closer to this one than Gonzo was in July, if I apply the rule as written though, Danno's 31.4 is 0.1 out of the "hammer" zone for reducing minimum progression boost values. Felt bad about it in July when it was a larger miss, but rules need to be applied as written I suppose. It means basically the chase pack will come in with almost full points despite being that far behind (29.8 for Dacogawa and 29.5 by MTC were the next highest forecasts). The rule as written is that a raw score of 18-20 (or any other category within 2 of maximum) invokes the hammer, where boosts are cut in half. I could change this in some way for the next forecast contest year (the minimum progression has been around about as long as I have, the hammer was brought in after some number of years, can't remember the details). I suppose a better hammer concept might be to reduce the force of it by 1 point for each interval, so in this case you would get 60% of your boost, if somebody scored 16/20 then 70% and by 13/20 as best raw score, no reductions would apply. If I applied that here, for example, dacogawa would have 12 points rather than 19 and I would have 11 instead of 18 (our raw scores are 1 and 0, which is where the hammer starts from, let's say somebody else had said 31.0 for 13 raw score, then their reduction would only apply to the range above 13 and would be fairly small anyway, the worst they could do is 17/20). But in any case, that would be for the future situations that are similar to this. Quite often when there has been a "hammer" in play, it has fallen on a group of raw scores that have given half the field some sort of head start so the overall effect of it has rarely been to go 20 10 9 8 7 etc (in this case), it has been more like 20, 15, 13, 11, 9, 8, 7 etc. Not that I have been keeping very precise stats on these situations.

Now as to IMT, I see that as of Friday 12th, the IMT had risen to 16.1 and if today's average is 20 then it would be 16.4 after 13 days. There is no real potential for a hammer situation to develop with IMT. When the raw scores descend by small differentials, the hammer can only come into play in a situation where raw scores are all very close to minimum progression. Otherwise the top forecast would probably be outside the hammer range. At the moment, with top IMT forecast at 16.2, it's not that clear that the outcome is going to be outside the range of forecasts, thinking that the IMT will remain on 16.4 after Sunday 14th, so the last 17 days of August would need to average at least 16.0 to keep the outcome as high as 16.2, and that's perhaps a bit higher than current guidance although not much higher.

Other category hammer potential at this point, MIN has already fallen below highest forecasts so there could only be a hammer if the result is around 2.1 (three forecasts at that value) or around -1.1 (one forecast GL at that value). The 2.1 hammer is inconsequential as raw scores would be almost the same as min progression anyway, if that hammer was valid (1.9 to 2.3). The lower one would certainly be valid, can only be applied with an outcome -0.9 to -1.3. (NormaL has 1.5 but normal does not factor into this, only after the fact, for example NormaL does not have hammer potential here, full minimum progression would be applied if the outcome gave normal a raw score of 18-20).

For PRC, which has been running low, there is a weak hammer for Mr Stonewall at 74%, weak because the raw scores that would exist if that hammer came into play would be close to the minimum progression values anyway. At the top end, Danno has 140% and that could produce a full hammer outcome if we get anywhere near that much rain. The current GFS runs to almost the end of the month and shows an average rainfall of about 30 mm which combined with what has already fallen would suggest PRC would be near 80% by 29th.

There is no hammer available for SUN with the distribution of forecasts, one at 115% and a bunch around 110%, and at this point the lower forecasts are already out of play (SUN must be pretty close to a guaranteed 70% at end of month even if it stayed cloudy all the time from tomorrow on).

M.T. Cranium

Valentia has had an astounding 308% of normal sunshine in the past week (6th-12th), the six station average was 257%. With a bit more cloud around on Sunday 14th, week two will not quite average that high but certainly over 200%, so what I said in the previous post needs to be amended, the amount of sunshine so far (week one was also quite sunny) will probably guarantee an above normal outcome no matter how low the values are in weeks three, four and the 29th-31st.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 16.8, second week average 18.6, 3.2 above normal.

MAX 31.7 MIN 3.8

PRC 52% of normal, the week very dry at 14% of normal. (est 65% by end of today)

SUN 194% of normal, with the weekly average a stupendous 245.5% (1473/600).

BONUS heavy rainfall 1st-2nd already scored in table of forecasts

The sunshine required for an outcome of 115% (our highest forecast) is a mere 30% of normal 15th-31st.

The rainfall required for an outcome of 74% (our lowest forecast) after today's adjustment is 85% of normal, while that may match some current model output only 135% is now needed to reach normal.

appledrop

M.T, the rainfall totals today is some areas are going to be unreal.

Will be some interesting statistics tomorrow.

New Ross is currently flooded.

pauldry

Dublin Airport 55mm but is that not included in rainfall in contest and only Casement?

M.T. Cranium

Yes, Dublin A is not part of our 11-station grid, and only Oak Park and Valentia in that grid had much to add to Casement, so I think my earlier estimate is a bit high, the current value is probably around 50 to 55 per cent after today. It would be 65 if Dublin was part of the grid.

There are a few more chances for rain this month, but we could end up getting the soft hammer from Mr Stonewall. Never know, we've had other months that change quite abruptly near the end with a deluge that is more widespread.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT back down to 16.3, the third week at 15.1, 0.1 above normal. Model runs continue to suggest rather warm at times towards end of month, but this seems likely to edge back into the 15.7-15.9 range.

MAX 31.7 and MIN 3.8 _ MAX no doubt set, MIN could have a bit of a challenge later this week.

PRC now 63% of normal, with the past week at 82%. __ GFS suggests this will be around the outcome too, let's say 65%.

SUN at 166% of normal, even this past week stayed above normal (110%). The outcome is now guaranteed to be at least 140% even with just half the normal amount rest of the way, or 115% if complete cloud cover 22nd-31st. I would expect closer to 155%.

The bonus question was scored right away and I had to stop and think what it was. Max rainfall 1st-2nd.

Just eyeballing the table of forecasts, would say the highest estimated score would be around 75 for dacogawa, can't see too many others over 60 as many who did okay on IMT and MAX have little to add from the rest.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119469766#Comment_119469766

At the top end, Danno has 140% and that could produce a full hammer outcome if we get anywhere near that much rain.

Feck, I entered my expected sunshine as rainfall and vice-versa. 🙄

Lesson to self - RTFM.

Tae laidir

Your error is much appreciated. A sunshine total of 140 would have produced a full hammer outcome for the rest of us.

M.T. Cranium

Danno, I believe you, but until you posted that, I just thought you had some outcome in mind with one heat wave and a lot of crap weather. There are places where that actually came close to verifying too. But on average it has been very sunny except maybe in parts of the far north (and in Scotland and the Lake District). A guy on net-weather who reports in that contest thread says he has had more rain than normal even in south Yorkshire. So the cutoff for heavier rain seems to be about Isle of Man east-south-east to Humber estuary. Not sure if this sharp a divide runs west into Ireland or if it just washes out as a smaller north-south divide.

I will post a score for you that is based on a reversal of those numbers as well as the official contest score, and then at end of play we can see how much of a difference it made. As TL says, it might also have affected scoring for other entrants so I will look at that aspect too.

M.T. Cranium

Will have the fourth week summary tomorrow but just checked the IMT, still up at 16.2 C. There was recently a low of 6.4 C at Oak Park but now looks like MIN is fairly set with all this cloud around.

PRC is barely half of normal for 28 days and just about 45% of the monthly average so if a slight amount were to fall next three days, likely outcome is just over 50%.

SUN cannot finish lower than 140% even with three days of cloudy skies.

Since almost all scoring is from minimum progression, here's a look at how things stand, if the IMT settles back to 16.1 end of month. Will adjust these scores as needed end of month.

Preliminary scoring for August 2022

FORECASTER ________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ TOTALS

__est outcome ______ 16.1_31.7_3.8_052_145 ___ 50+

M.T. Cranium ________24 _ 18*_ 03 _ 11*_ 07*____ 7 ______ 70

Tae laidir ___________ 25 _ 07*_ 12 _ 14*_ 07*____ 4 ______ 69

Dacogawa __________ 24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 04*_ 06*___ 10 ______ 78

waterways __________24 _ 15*_ 12 _ 13*_ 08*____ 2 ______ 74

Jpmarn ____________ 23 _ 17*_ 07 _ 15*_ 05*___ 10 ______ 77

Sunflower3 _________ 23 _ 16*_ 10 _ 09*_ 08*____ 7 ______ 73

Esposito ____________23 _ 14*_ 03 _ 05*_ 06*____ 8 ______ 59

Artane2002 _________ 23 _ 12*_ 16 _ 11*_ 08*____ 3 ______ 73

sryanbruen __________22 _ 11*_ 13 _ 11*_ 08*____ 1 ______ 66

Joe public __________ 22 _ 10*_ 11 _ 07*_ 06*_____ 3 ______ 59

Danno _____________ 21 _ 20*_ 10 _ 01*_ 00*_____ 2 ______ 54 (78)

Mr stonewall ________ 21 _ 12*_ 10 _ 15*_ 08*_____ 8 ______ 74

___ Con Sensus ______21 _ 11*_ 12 _ 09*_ 06*_____ 6 ______ 65

Kindred Spirit _______ 20 _ 11*_ 18 _ 13*_ 09*_____ 8 ______ 79

Bsal _______________19 _ 06*_ 19 _ 04*_ 04*_____ 4 ______ 56

Dasa29 ____________ 19 _ 05*_ 18 _ 11*_ 06*_____ 6 ______ 65

MrSkinner __________ 19 _ 02*_ 17 _ 08*_ 05*_____ 6 ______ 57

Appledrop __________ 18 _ 08*_ 17 _ 13*_ 04*_____ 6 ______ 66

john mac ___________18 _ 04*_ 09 _ 06*_ 06*_____ 4 ______ 47

Gaoth Láidir ________ 18 _ 03*_ 00 _ 03*_ 04*_____ 9 ______ 37

Pauldry ____________ 17 _ 14*_ 03 _ 02*_ 05*____ 10 ______ 51

DOCARCH __________ 17 _ 11*_ 16 _ 06*_ 05*_____ 1 ______ 56

Adam240610 ________15 _ 09*_ 10 _ 02*_ 06*_____ 4 ______ 46

___ NormaL _________15 _ 04*_ 00 _ 07*_ 06*_____ 6 ______ 38

200motels __________ 14 _ 01*_ 12 _ 10*_ 08*_____ 1 ______ 46

______________________

* Minimum progression scores ... SUN scored from 120% ... MAX in order, also PRC although close sets of forecasts resulted in numerous ties and I was generous on this category in general because of the small spread in actual forecasts.

Danno total score (78) if PRC and SUN forecasts reversed. Contest score is first one unfortunately. The differential might have been greater also if SUN forecast applied reduced minimum progression, but SUN raw score would need to be 8/10 for that. ... differential would also be 2 greater just from other scores being dropped by 1 in these categories.

These scores are in table of forecast order, will be adjusted as necessary.

==================

(actual forecasts)

M.T. Cranium ________16.2 _ 29.5 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 105 __ 28.5 ___ 7

Tae laidir ___________ 16.1 _ 27.4 _ 3.0 _ 081 _ 104 __ 23.0 ___ 4

Dacogawa __________ 16.0 _ 29.8 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 102 __ 35.1 __ 10

waterways __________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 083 _ 111 __ 17.7 ___ 2

Jpmarn ____________ 15.9 _ 29.2 _ 2.5 _ 075 _ 095 __ 38.0 __ 10

Sunflower3 _________ 15.9 _ 29.1 _ 4.8 _ 092 _ 108 __ 26.0 ___ 7

Esposito ____________15.9 _ 28.8 _ 2.1 _ 108 _ 102 __ 32.0 ___ 8

Artane2002 _________ 15.9 _ 28.3 _ 4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 20.0 ___ 3

sryanbruen __________15.8 _ 28.1 _ 3.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 15.0 ___ 1

Joe public __________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 19.0 ___ 3

Danno _____________ 15.7 _ 31.4 _ 2.8 _ 140 _ 070 __ 18.0 ___ 2

Mr stonewall ________ 15.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.8 _ 074 _ 110 __ 33.0 ___ 8

___ Con Sensus ______15.7 _ 28.1 _ 3.0 _ 092 _ 100 __ 25.0 ___ 6

Kindred Spirit _______ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 085 _ 115 __ 32.0 ___ 8

Bsal _______________15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 110 _ 088 __ 22.0 ___ 4

Dasa29 ____________ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 100 __ 25.0 ___ 6

MrSkinner __________ 15.5 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 095 _ 095 __ 25.0 ___ 6

Appledrop __________ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 090 __ 25.0 ___ 6

john mac ___________15.4 _ 26.8 _ 4.9 _ 105 _ 098 __ 24.0 ___ 4

Gaoth Láidir ________ 15.4 _ 25.8 _-1.1 _ 114 _ 092 __ 35.5 ___ 9

Pauldry ____________ 15.3 _ 28.8 _ 2.1 _ 124 _ 093 __ 42.0 __ 10

DOCARCH __________ 15.3 _ 28.2 _ 3.4 _ 103 _ 097 __ 16.0 ___ 1

Adam240610 ________15.1 _ 27.9 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 100 __ 23.0 ___ 4

___ NormaL _________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 25.0 ___ 6

200motels __________ 15.0 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 091 _ 111 __ 13.0 ___ 1

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 16.2, fourth week 15.9 (1.1 deg above normal). This could end up 16.1 as today won't change it. Preliminary scoring above was based on 16.0 so if possible I will adjust that.

MAX 31.7 and MIN 3.8 _ these appear set.

PRC is barely 57% of normal with the fourth week at 39%. Without much further rain, the outcome will be just over 50%.

SUN is at a very impressive 150% as even this rather cloudy fourth week managed 102% of normal (611/600) mostly on the surplus at Shannon. This cannot finish lower than 140% now (assuming 50% for 29th-31st).

BONUS was already scored long, long ago. What was the bonus anyway? Max rainfall 1-2.

appledrop

Well I thought I'd be last this month I was way off but I think a lot of us were.

I couldn't care less, I am delighted I got it so wrong.

For me August 2022 is best August ever.

Just look at those stats. Rainfall less than 50% ,sunshine 150%, Max of 31.7 and there was a good few days of over 30 degrees.

It really was an unbelievable month, one to tell the grandkids😃

M.T. Cranium

IMT ended up 16.2 and PRC 44%.

Scoring would change by 1 for all, up for me and down for thee.

It also changes the "Danno what if" scoring differential by 8 (his stays same as shown, ours all drop by about 8 in the hammer we avoided). There could be a further change of about 4 to that if a sunshine hammer comes into play there.

Will adjust the other elements from reports tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

Have checked all the stats, no other score-related changes.

IMT 16.2 MAX 31.7 MIN 3.8 PRC 44% SUN 153%

The scoring then rearranged into scoring order ...

Confirmed scoring for August 2022

FORECASTER ________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ TOTALS

__ outcome ________ 16.2_31.7_3.8_044_153 ___ 55.1 Newport

Kindred Spirit _______ 19 _ 11*_ 18 _ 13*_ 09*____ 8 ______ 78

Dacogawa __________ 23 _ 19*_ 15 _ 04*_ 06*___ 10 ______ 77

Jpmarn ____________ 22 _ 17*_ 07 _ 15*_ 05*___ 10 ______ 76

waterways __________23 _ 15*_ 12 _ 13*_ 08*____ 2 ______ 73

Mr stonewall ________ 20 _ 12*_ 10 _ 15*_ 08*____ 8 ______ 73

Sunflower3 _________ 22 _ 16*_ 10 _ 09*_ 08*____ 7 ______ 72

Artane2002 _________22 _ 12*_ 16 _ 11*_ 08*____ 3 ______ 72

M.T. Cranium ________25 _ 18*_ 03 _ 11*_ 07*____ 7 ______ 71

Tae laidir ___________ 24 _ 07*_ 12 _ 14*_ 07*____ 4 ______ 68

sryanbruen __________21 _ 11*_ 13 _ 11*_ 08*____ 1 ______ 65

Appledrop __________ 17 _ 08*_ 17 _ 13*_ 04*____ 6 ______ 65

Dasa29 ____________ 18 _ 05*_ 18 _ 11*_ 06*____ 6 ______ 64

___ Con Sensus ______20 _ 11*_ 12 _ 09*_ 06*____ 6 ______ 64

Esposito ____________22 _ 14*_ 03 _ 05*_ 06*____ 8 ______ 58

Joe public __________ 21 _ 10*_ 11 _ 07*_ 06*____ 3 ______ 58

MrSkinner __________ 18 _ 02*_ 17 _ 08*_ 05*____ 6 ______ 56

Bsal _______________18 _ 06*_ 19 _ 04*_ 04*____ 4 ______ 55

DOCARCH __________ 16 _ 11*_ 16 _ 06*_ 05*____ 1 ______ 55

Danno _____________ 20 _ 20*_ 10 _ 01*_ 00*____ 2 ______ 53 (77)

Pauldry ____________ 16 _ 14*_ 03 _ 02*_ 05*___ 10 ______ 50

john mac ___________17 _ 04*_ 09 _ 06*_ 06*____ 4 ______ 46

Adam240610 ________14 _ 09*_ 10 _ 02*_ 06*____ 4 ______ 45

200motels __________ 13 _ 01*_ 12 _ 10*_ 08*____ 1 ______ 45

___ NormaL _________14 _ 04*_ 00 _ 07*_ 06*____ 6 ______ 37

Gaoth Láidir _________17 _ 03*_ 00 _ 03*_ 04*____ 9 ______ 36

______________________

* Minimum progression scores ... SUN scored from 120% ... MAX in order, also PRC although close sets of forecasts resulted in numerous ties and I was generous on this category in general because of the small spread in actual forecasts.

Danno total score (77) if PRC and SUN forecasts reversed. Contest score is first one unfortunately. The differential might have been greater also if SUN forecast applied reduced minimum progression, but SUN raw score would need to be 8/10 for that (the outcome was 7/10 so we would have avoided that hammer, also the PRC hammer would not have fallen on us, as raw score in this was 6/15 ... differential would also be 2 greater just from other scores being dropped by 1 in these categories ... the net differential is 26. I will keep this in mind at end of the contest year. (if Danno had scored 77, all the other scores would be 2 lower)

Meanwhile, congrats to Kindred Spirit, dacogawa, and JPmarn for leading this contest. Annual scoring updates to follow (after several hours as I will be resuming my sleep for a while as it's not quite sunrise here).

pauldry

Looks like I'll be dissing August. Stupid hot dry month.

M.T. Cranium

Annual Scoring Summary Jan to Aug 2022

The table continues to be ordered by total score. This month we change to best 6/8 to prepare for the eventual change in format next month where the table order is best 7/9, for now it remains total score. (contest is decided on best 10/12).

Congrats to Appledrop for continuing to lead the way, there has been a bit of a reordering of the top ten and the chase pack. I show the alternate results for Danno which despite being 26 net points only moves Danno up a few spots in both total score and best 6/8, but will continue to track that for general interest. Gonzo fell quite a few spots in the total score by not entering August but the more important rank is best 6/8 so that hasn't been affected much, same happened with Sunflower3 in a previous month. 200motels has already missed 3 but would not have moved past anyone in the top 21 even with a 100 added in any of those three.

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER _____ Jan_Feb_Mar _Apr _May_Jun _Jul _Aug __TOTAL _ Best 6/8 (rank) (prev)

_01 _ (01) __Appledrop _________67 _ 76 _ 55 _ 68 _79 _ 89 _ 57 _ 65 __ 556 __ 444 (1) _ (1)

01.8_(01.9) ___ Con Sensus _____80 _ 70 _ 56 _ 77 _61 _ 70 _ 64 _ 64 __ 542 __ 425 (2.5)_(1.7)

_02 _ (03) __ Tae laidir _________70 _ 77 _ 52 _ 66 _76 _ 64 _ 64 _ 68 __ 537 __ 421 (3) _ (2)

_03 _ (02) __ Bsal _____________61 _ 67 _ 69 _ 68 _73 _ 71 _ 68 _ 55 __ 532 __ 416 (5) _(3)

_04 _ (06) __Mr stonewall _______67 _ 70 _ 57 _ 78 _68 _ 73 _ 43 _ 73 __ 529 __ 429 (2) _ (4)

_t05 _(05) __MrSkinner _________63 _ 63 _ 67 _ 82 _66 _ 70 _ 55 _ 56 __ 522 __ 411 (8) _ (6)

_t05 _(08) __Kindred Spirit ______80 _ 66 _ 48 _ 69 _55 _ 63 _ 63 _ 78 __ 522 __ 419 (4) _ (8)

_07 _ (07) __sryanbruen ________65 _ 58 _ 49 _ 67 _65 _ 67 _ 83 _ 65 __ 519 __ 412 (t6)_(7)

_08 _ (04) __Pauldry ___________78 _ 77 _ 57 _ 55 _64 _ 75 _ 61 _ 50 __ 517 __ 412 (t6) _(5)

_09 _ (09) __Artane2002 _______ 59 _ 70 _ 55 _ 75 _60 _ 51 _ 68 _ 72 __ 510 __ 404 (t10) _ (12)

_10 _ (12) __dacogawa _________78 _ 63 _ 58 _ 50 _56 _ 77 _ 48 _ 77 __ 507 __ 409 (9) _ (14)

_11 _ (11) __DOCARCH ________ 78 _ 50 _ 47 _ 77 _61 _ 78 _ 42 _ 55 __ 488 __ 396 (12) _ (t10)

_12 _ (15) __Jpmarn ___________54 _ 55 _ 55 _ 76 _44 _ 54 _ 71 _ 76 __ 485 __ 387 (t14) _(t15)

_13 _ (14) __Dasa29 ___________72 _ 50 _ 50 _ 65 _65 _ 63 _ 47 _ 64 __ 476 __ 379 (17) _(t15)

_14 _ (17) __M.T. Cranium ______ 65 _ 45 _ 39 _ 81 _46 _ 79 _ 45 _ 71 __ 471 __ 387 (t14) _(18)

_15 _ (16) __Joe Public _________50 _ 57 _ 53 _ 66 _53 _ 57 _ 71 _ 58 __ 465 __ 362 (21) _ (20)

_16 _ (18) __sunflower3 _______ 77 _ 60 _ 61 _ 68 _66 _ 59 _ --- _ 72 __ 463 __ 404 (t10)_ (t10)

_t17 _(13) __john mac__________82 _ 53 _ 69 _ 54 _54 _ 73 _ 29 _ 46 __ 460 __ 385 (16)_ (13)

_t17 _(20) __waterways ________ 65_ 45 _ 47 _ 69 _54 _ 56 _ 51 _ 73 __ 460 __ 368 (18) _ (21)

14.0_ (15.0)__ NormaL _________60 _ 57 _ 54 _ 68 _55 _ 77 _ 38 _ 37 __ 446 __ 371 (17.7)_(14.7)

_19 _ (10) __Gonzo ____________43 _ 49 _ 67 _ 78 _65 _ 63 _ 70 _ --- __ 435 __ 392 (13) _ (9)

_20 _ (19) __adam240610 ______ 54 _ 26 _ 54 _ 77 _47 _ 76 _ 55 _ 45 __ 434 __ 363 (20) _ (17)

_21 _ (21) __Danno ___________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 _ 81 _57 _ 46 _ 80 _ 53 __ 430*__ 365*(19) _(19)

_22 _ (22) __200motels ________ 57 _ 49 _ --- _ 74 _--- _ --- _ 76 _ 45 __ 301

_23 _ (25) __esposito __________52 _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ 58 __ 110

_24 _ (23) __Gaoth laidir _______--- _ --- _ 70 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ 36 __ 106

_25 _ (24) __Bazlers __________ 56 _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 56

_26 _ (26) __Tazio ____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _--- _ --- _ 48 _ --- ___ 48

==================================================

* Danno would have 454 total points and 389 for best 6/8 counting the alternate score, and rest of field generally 2 pts lower.

Category scoring will be posted later, coffee break