August 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature) which is the average of temperatures at Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The recent 30-year average for that is 15.1 C.
2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at regular reporting sites for Met Eireann as reported on their website under "yesterday's weather" and confirmed later in their publication Monthly Summary.
3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, otherwise same as 2 above)
4. Predict the PRC (rainfall) as a percentage of normal values averaged for eleven sites, the five mentioned in q1 above and also Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Cork, Valentia and Johnstown Castle.
5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values, from observations at six locations.
6. BONUS _ A real short-range challenge for you this time, maximum total rainfall Monday - Tuesday 1-2 Aug as reported by the various regular reporting sites, from 0100 Monday to 0100 Wednesday as the day is actually 00z to 00z and we're on daylight saving time. So to be clear, we're looking for the highest total for Monday and Tuesday at any given location, not the total of the highest daily amounts at two different locations. Will just score the amounts, you can give a location if you wish. There are perhaps two parts to the rainfall event so anyway, I seem to be in some system here where the website is pre-arranging these paragraphs by number, which I had not asked it to do, nor do I have time to decode and change it, the next paragraph I hit will say 7 but there is no actual seventh question ...

Well I decoded it accidentally then, by hitting return twice, no more indented points. Whatever. The deadline is 0300h Monday 1st August. For the bonus, I will try to alert late regular entrants to post as quickly as possible but some reduction of total bonus score may be involved if the rainfall already known to have fallen by their late entry makes their prediction appear more accurate. I will play that as it comes, try to enter this on time. Good luck!

My own entry will occur fairly close to the deadline this time, as for NormaL, their bonus prediction will be the GFS output from the 00z Aug 1st model run.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen_________15.8 _ 28.1 _ 3.1 _ 90 __ 110 ______ 15mm Shannon Apt

dasa29

Dasa29_________15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 90 __ 100 ______ 25mm Mullingar

Danno

Danno _________15.7 _ 31.4 _ 2.8 _ 140 __ 70 ______ 18mm Mace Head

pauldry

Pauldry _________15.3 _ 28.8_ 2.1_ 124__ 93 ______ 42mm Sherkin

Bsal

Bsal_________15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 110 __ 88 ______ 22mm

Joe Public

Joe public___15.8__28__2.9__99_99___19mm Valentia

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________15.3 _ 28.2 _ 3.4 _ 103 __ 97 ______ 16mm Valentia

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Láidir_____15.4____25.8___-1.1___114%___92%___35.5mm Valentia

esposito

Esposito_____15.9___28.8___2.1___108___102___32mm Valentia

John mac

john mac______15.4 _ 26.8 _ 4.9 _ 105 __ 98 ______ 24mm newport

sunflower3

Sunflower3_________15.9_ 29.1_ 4.8 __ 92____108__ 26mm Valentia

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.6 ___ 28.0 ___ 4.0 ___ 85 ___ 115 ___ 32mm.

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ______ 16.2 _ 29.5 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 105 __ 28.5 mm

NormaL ___________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 25 mm (12z GFS)

I was going to post NormaL's prediction from 00z but as half the field have already entered, I will go with the 12z output. The GFS maximum grid point 25 mm is near Mace Head. I would imagine Newport might be the actual location.

Will post updates on actual amounts together with any necessary info on late entrant score capping as needed tomorrow. If a late entry occurs before very much rain has fallen, the cap will be 8/10 as an augmented late penalty. If a late entry can make use of intermediate data, then I will have to assess the advantage gained and remove it from potential scoring.

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___15.7__28.3___2.8___74____110___33mm Valentia

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___________15.9 _ 28.3 _ 4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 20mm Newport

waterways

waterways _________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 083 _ 111 __ 17.7 Mace Head (not Valentia, not Shannon)

dacogawa

Dacogawa ______ 16.0 _ 29.8 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 102 __ 35.1 mm Valentia

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  ___________15.9 _ 29.2 _ 2.5 _ 75_ 95 __ 38 mm Valentia

appledrop

Appledrop___15.4__27.5__3.5___85___90______25mm Valentia.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___________16.1 _ 27.4 _ 3.0 _ 81 _ 104 __ 23 mm Mace Head

adam240610

Adam240610______15.1_ 27.9 _ 2.8 _ 120 __ 100 _____ 23mm Mace Head

mrskinner

Skinner 15.5___25.5___3.5___95___95___25 Valentia.

200motels

200motels----------- 15 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 91 _111 __13mm Shannon

pauldry

Interesting track of rain seems a lot coming in line from Mayo to Sligo so may see a high total here in Sligo but Finner may be too far North to report and Markree too far inland so I'll report the Town figure. So far only 1.5mm but its lashing.

M.T. Cranium

Noted some hourly temps at 4 C overnight.

pauldry

Newport reporting 18.7mm on 1500 hourly so a clear lead with about 22mm there so far.

Could be an error though we'll find out later

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119415400#Comment_119415400

Met have confirmed it.

https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1554119830298628096?s=21&t=5icRyA3gnIEQbFrBg6TY_Q

pauldry

Yes add another 10.7mm and its a case of how much with showers soon following in the clearance.

Jpmarn

Counted to about 35mm rain in Newport that doesn’t include the 1800 report.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for August 2022

Apparently there has already been at least 46 mm rain at Newport. Therefore it is possible to score the bonus question as shown.

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain 1-2

___________________________________________________ bonus score

M.T. Cranium ________16.2 _ 29.5 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 105 __ 28.5 ___ 7

Tae laidir ___________ 16.1 _ 27.4 _ 3.0 _ 081 _ 104 __ 23.0 ___ 4

Dacogawa __________ 16.0 _ 29.8 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 102 __ 35.1 __ 10

waterways __________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 083 _ 111 __ 17.7 ___ 2

Jpmarn ____________ 15.9 _ 29.2 _ 2.5 _ 075 _ 095 __ 38.0 __ 10

Sunflower3 _________ 15.9 _ 29.1 _ 4.8 _ 092 _ 108 __ 26.0 ___ 7

Esposito ____________15.9 _ 28.8 _ 2.1 _ 108 _ 102 __ 32.0 ___ 8

Artane2002 _________ 15.9 _ 28.3 _ 4.2 _ 090 _ 110 __ 20.0 ___ 3

sryanbruen __________15.8 _ 28.1 _ 3.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 15.0 ___ 1

Joe public __________ 15.8 _ 28.0 _ 2.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 19.0 ___ 3

Danno _____________ 15.7 _ 31.4 _ 2.8 _ 140 _ 070 __ 18.0 ___ 2

Mr stonewall ________ 15.7 _ 28.3 _ 2.8 _ 074 _ 110 __ 33.0 ___ 8

___ Con Sensus ______15.7 _ 28.1 _ 3.0 _ 092 _ 100 __ 25.0 ___ 6

Kindred Spirit _______ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 085 _ 115 __ 32.0 ___ 8

Bsal _______________15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 110 _ 088 __ 22.0 ___ 4

Dasa29 ____________ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 100 __ 25.0 ___ 6

MrSkinner __________ 15.5 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 095 _ 095 __ 25.0 ___ 6

Appledrop __________ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 090 __ 25.0 ___ 6

john mac ___________15.4 _ 26.8 _ 4.9 _ 105 _ 098 __ 24.0 ___ 4

Gaoth Láidir ________ 15.4 _ 25.8 _-1.1 _ 114 _ 092 __ 35.5 ___ 9

Pauldry ____________ 15.3 _ 28.8 _ 2.1 _ 124 _ 093 __ 42.0 __ 10

DOCARCH __________ 15.3 _ 28.2 _ 3.4 _ 103 _ 097 __ 16.0 ___ 1

Adam240610 ________15.1 _ 27.9 _ 2.8 _ 120 _ 100 __ 23.0 ___ 4

___ NormaL _________15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 25.0 ___ 6

200motels __________ 15.0 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 091 _ 111 __ 13.0 ___ 1