Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans in OP**

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173132#Comment_122173132

Stop putting words in my mouth.

I'm not happy with the status quo, I'd much prefer that the case get solved.

But I am happy in my opinion that Bailey is the prime suspect and I am happy to acknowledge that there has never been enough evidence against him to bring a charge, and also that the French trial was sham.

I also believe that just because the Garda investigation was a mess it doesn't automatically mean that Baily can't be the killer.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173326#Comment_122173326

I also have an open-mind as I view bailey as merely the "likely killer" based on what we know

ok, humour me - what exactly do we know that holds any kind of water?

drury..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173356#Comment_122173356

I was actually going to post on this

The alternate theories posted are not convincing in the main imo

Ah I see you're asking me on Bailey, im not doing that debate again atm

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173391#Comment_122173391

I'm not asking you for alternate theories though. I'm asking what has made you think that Bailey is the "likely killer" given that multiple DPPs have looked at the "evidence" provided by AGS and effectively torn it all to shreds and made the unusual public display of doing so?

drury..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173404#Comment_122173404

I answered this question as recently as last nite

Go back and look

I would add that the crime scene points in a particular direction, as the experienced gardai at the scene likely concluded

Deeec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173425#Comment_122173425

What direction does the crime scene point in - What evidence at the crime scene points to anyone?

drury..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173469#Comment_122173469

A rage killing of an attractive young visitor to the area

A local who likely knew/knew of her and had an interest or infatuation of some type

Maybe a big man capable of great violence against women

The killer likely called during darkness and likely unannounced

Those type of observations at the scene, maybe slightly different but you get the idea

Your second question I didn't make that point that I recall anyway so doesn't need me to answer it

Deeec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173533#Comment_122173533

You do realise the list you mentioned could apply to any man that lived nearby, not just Bailey.

drury..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173555#Comment_122173555

Agreed

Thats a possibility, same MO different killer

drury..

We're dealing in conjecture here in this thread . We're not in the business of proving anything .

Bjsc for example is of the opinion that this wasn't a random caller killing

Afair she also doesn't believe the hitman theory

Those opinions are worthy of inclusion into the discussion of theories because of her experience and expertise and form part of my thinking on the matter

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173533#Comment_122173533

Plenty of massive assumptions being made there, none of which point at Bailey being the likely killer unless you already had him in mind.

We don't even know when she was killed so the Bailey theory is even more flawed.

Then only thing likely (to use your term) is that AGS completely messed this up from the outset and as a result we may never find out the truth. However, to make rhe bold assertion that Bailey is the likely killer is a belief based on absolutely nothing more than you want him to be it

drury..

They are first impressions at the scene

Working theories , assumptions, i suppose

Bailey is not relevant in this regard

You'll notice i didn't mention his name once in the post

drury..

Its not gone unnoticed by me anyway that posters are contributing very little constructive themselves

I post my theory of what happened

Who I believe is the likely killer

What I believe likely didn't happen

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173617#Comment_122173617

And bjsc has also put forward opinions on the failure of the Guards to properly investigate a morning murder scenario, and opinions as to why a time of death in the morning is probable, and the use of a vehicle.

Something which makes the scenario for someone like Bailey as you have outlined far less likely.

Yet you seem to disregard those opinions (likewise based on experience and expertise).

Which suggests you are just cherry picking and reinforcing your own predetermined opinion.

drury..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173818#Comment_122173818

No

I'm aware of bjscs comments on the possibility of a morning murder

I don't recall her opinion making a nightime killing 'far less likely '

If I recall ,it was more that either was possible

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173937#Comment_122173937

It makes a nighttime killing far less likely, if the scenario you have outlined for the murder is a night time one.

If both are viable options, it reduces the likelihood of a nighttime killing by 50%, all things being equal.

And the indications to morning murder from factors such as the contents of stomach suggest they are not equal.

Baz Richardson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122168714#Comment_122168714

By coincidence I was talking to three work colleagues about their night out, two of them could not remember what they had done Saturday night. The third was telling them to jog their memory. One could not remember how she got home into bed.

Are you suggesting that it is not possible for people to forget what they did on a drunken night? Because I am fairly confident that we all here have an abundance of anecdotal evidence to say otherwise of our own experiences and those of friends, family and colleagues.

drury..

If you can link to bjsc stating a night time killing is far less likely ?

Your ramblings above on percentages and likelyhoods are hard to follow

Baz Richardson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122170275#Comment_122170275

Colin Stagg was the only suspect, look how that turned out because others we did not hear about were not investigated properly and the police were convinced that they had their murderer.

drury..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173971#Comment_122173971

Open to correction but if i recall both Jules and Ian forgot what happened that nite

The nite of the murder

Then they both remembered

Baz Richardson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174035#Comment_122174035

Which is exactly what happened in the conversation with my three colleagues, memory was jogged. The point I am making is that had the police questioned them individually, two of them had no idea what they had done until the third jogged their memory. Had the police then interviewed them a second time after their memory had recovered, did that make them liars in their first statements? Of course not.

drury..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174072#Comment_122174072

Ok I see what you're saying

However..

Bailey was allegedly gone most of the nite writing an article ?

That same morning he hears of Sophie's death and later visits the scene

While in interview he can't recall that arriving back into the house that morning with the article and not long after hearing of sophie's death and visiting the scene was all a continuation of the same night/morning/day

Not plausible imo

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173971#Comment_122173971

It doesn't matter what you work colleagues remember about Saturday night or not so lets not bother with them , lets look at Bailey.

There was a vicious murder in the vicinity and he was one of the first members of the public on the scene.

So this murder is front and centre for him from Monday afternoon seeing as he is the local journalist and this is big news.

Yet a few days later he misrepresents what he did the night of the murder in a Garda questionnaire.

How could that be, how could he get it wrong about what he did the night of this murder.

It's not as if it was sprang on him, he would have been thinking of the murder since he found out about it on Monday afternoon, surely he would have gone over in his head and with Jules what they actually were doing the time the murder may have occurred, that's naturally what someone would do.

If it was a random week where nothing happened yea, I'd give someone the benefit of the doubt about not remembering what they did at the weekend, but this was a big week in Schull, and he knew that questionnaire was coming.

But you also have to look at another piece of incorrect information that he gave.

At the time of the questionnaire he said that on the Saturday night he went home after the pub, but he subsequently changed that only a few days later to say that he went to a house party and thumbed home at around 6am.

So early on in the investigation he gave incorrect information about what he did the night before and the night of the murder, but only corrected what he did the night before.

It's incredulous to think he could suddenly remember Saturday night, a night of no consequence but not remember Sunday night.

And all this about Sunday night came out when Jules said it to Gardai 6 weeks later, it's not as if Bailey was racking his brains in the days and weeks after the murder and then remembers what he did Sunday night and volunteered it to the Gardai.

Baz Richardson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174135#Comment_122174135

You'll have to rewite that as it doesn't make sense.

drury..

From vague memory, someone correct me if I'm wrong

1. Bailey arrives back into the house the morning of the murder and deposits the written article on the kitchen table

2. Not very long after he gets a call regarding the murder

3. Not very long after that he visits the scene

Somehow in interview a few days after the murder he's forgotten this sequence of events ?

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174237#Comment_122174237

If you listen to the West Cork podcast Bailey talks about how he brought Jules coffee in bed and also the article and read it to her or something like that.

Yet all this is forgotten when it's time to tell the Gardai about it.

drury..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174284#Comment_122174284

So he's quite lucid and having coffee that morning after writing an article most of the nite?

Not long after he hears of the murder and then visits the scene

And he can't remember this was all the one sequence of events, the same nite>morning >day?

Are we to believe that ?

drury..

This was all a few days after the murder that he couldn't recollect the above events ?

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122173425#Comment_122173425

You mean this…?
This doesn't go anywhere near answering the question I asked 😏

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122172027#Comment_122172027

As for the crime scene pointing in a particular direction, I'm not sure which direction you mean because yet again you're being somewhat obtuse and not actually stating any details.

The known facts are that are that there is no evidence Bailey knew the woman, no evidence that bailey even knew she was in town and no evidence that he knew she was in town alone. She rarely came to West Cork and when she did she was always accompanied - until this time!

What AGS and you are suggesting is that a drunkard wandered the roads in the middle of a cold winters night presumably with the intention of sex and arriaved at her house. When she rebuffed him, she put on her boots and walked him back down the lane as far as the gate.
How plausible is that in reality? Would your wife/sister/mother staying somewhere remotely accompany a stranger down a dark lane at night when they didn't have to?

That's working under the assumption that the murder happened at night. The contents of the stomach and the layout of the kitchen points more towards her having had breakfast which would indicate a later murder which pretty much rules out the Bailey theory.

The crime scene contains absolutely no evidence of a sexual attack - none at all!
The crime scene contains none of Bailey's DNA despite the suggestion by AGS that he received multiple scratches doring a struggle.
The crime scene did contain the DNA of A.N. Other but this has not yet been followed up on.

As for the experienced gardai knowing what to do - why didn't they follow the advice of Prof. Harbison and remove the body from the scene to UCH in order to preserve evidence?
Why didn't these experienced gardai not get a doctor on the scene to accurately estimate the time of death rather than wait for Prof. Harbison (which meant a delay of almost two days)?

So I ask you directly, exactly what direction does the crime scene point towards?

drury..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174355#Comment_122174355

Care to comment on the points above re: the alibi

Your post above isn't worthy of reply , you're raising lots of points which I didn't make in my post on the crime scene