Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

sydthebeat

If sinn Fein don't reach 40 seats, it will be a failure.

They are the strongest opposition yet they continually fcuk it for themselves

Kiteview

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907723#Comment_122907723

It’d be simpler for FF to write a suicide note and retreat to a study with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver.

Their voters would desert them en masse.

sydthebeat

Martin will never ever go into coalition with SF

Grey123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907897#Comment_122907897

Exactly. They would have to get rid. Six seats is pretty much the agreed for rotating.

I think it would be a very hard sell for MLMD to play second fiddle to FF.

Not happening

Dr Robert

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907846#Comment_122907846

Would that not mean that the majority of people are happy with how things are for them?

Ireland is booming in general. We can't even fill every job avaliable in the country!

no.8

Delete

no.8

How would that government be tough on immigrants, with SF involved? Just wondering

no.8

Ireland might be booming to some degree but some of the reasons to why we can't fill roles, comes down to housing (to purchase or the amateur rental market) and poor public transport options. A lot of roles posted are also phantom roles.

dulpit

I was thinking about the probable SF result.

If you look at things in the confines of the election period of the past 3 weeks, it's been a good campaign for them. They stopped the slide in the polls, recovered and had momentum towards the end.

If you look at things in the period from the past general election to this one it's been a bad result. They haven't grown, they've stagnated and haven't done anything to build a relationship with other parties thst could become a meaningful and obvious alternative government.

I fully assume that sinn fein supporters will focus on the former over the next few days, but they need to be focusing more on the latter...

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908053#Comment_122908053

If SF with a narrative of keeping the other 2 out have less votes than the last time and FF & FG have more votes than last time,then it’s been a bad election for them,their message not resonating after 30 plus years of being in opposition

No doubt there’ll be a shuffling of the deck chairs to present some gloss,probably the uptick in seats.

But the uptick stems not from an increase in popularity (the opposite has happened) but from better use of their ldeclining vote by the running of extra candidates in a few constituencies taking seats

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122907897#Comment_122907897

Which is why, for the politically naive, Ireland is not the same as elsewhere.
How would the 'incumbents' be removed when you have two parties clinging to power?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908194#Comment_122908194

Utter rubbish, voters voting for the 2 parties knew exactly what they were getting this time

That argument ship has been put to bed

Next..,

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908194#Comment_122908194

Wrong

Did you not watch the latest french election??

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908194#Comment_122908194

Labour won't go into power with the tories. The difference in Ireland is that we have multiple parties where the UK has 1.

Also, if sinn fein are all about change, how is going in with FF change?

FrancieBrady

France being an outlier. The claim was made about 'incumbents everywhere'. What happened here is 3 parties finished more or less equal on vote share.

@pureza illustrates the conceit well.
Two of them insisted they are different parties. pretended to be different in the campaign but as he/she says 'everyone knew'.

The lie of the land is clearly established now. The juggernaut that is FF FG is what has to be campaigned against. One party now.

FrancieBrady

As Barry Lenihan (always thought he was much older) points out too on RTE there, another huge encouragement for SF is how well they kept an unprecedented number of independents at bay.

They took one for the country there IMO

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908231#Comment_122908231

SFs biggest issue is not FFG, it's convincing the populace that they aren't still tethered to the unilateralslim of the past, and what happened in Laois with Stanley only exacerbates that optic.

Plus their policies are way too populist. The electorate are not stupid and can recognise empty promises when spouted.

They aren't ready to be in government yet

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908231#Comment_122908231

I did not say that and you are the one here with conceit as you know that’s not what I was saying

Everyone knew when voting they would do a deal

There are differences in their policies btw

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908250#Comment_122908250

If you put the conceit above aside, SF did as well as the other two at convincing the electorate of their message/policies.

I do think their direction now should be to build a left alliance, that is the shift in the dynamic (that continues to change) they need to pursue.

sydthebeat

Seems you don't know the meaning of the word 'conceit' Francie. Nothing fanciful in what I posted.

I'm not a SF member. I'm telling you, who is obviously a SF fan, how they are viewed by those who don't vote for them.

I can tell you that many people I spoke to were mobilised to vote in order to STOP sinn Fein from getting into power, people who would have no party alliances. SF are seen as the party supporters by wasters and dole merchants

These are the people SF need to convince if they ever want to get into power.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908265#Comment_122908265

Yeah,did I ever tell ya the one about…😁

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908297#Comment_122908297

All great if the sitting government had increased their share of the vote. They haven't.
It has fallen 5.2% on current tallies.

FF FG's share has fallen too.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908316#Comment_122908316

Let's assume all three FF, FG, and SF end up on 20% each.

All voters for FF and FG realise that it's likely they will go back into government together, They're two cheeks of the same arse

That means 40% of electorate are giving a mandate for a FFG gov.

SF on 20% will have to do a lot of work to find partners to equal that 40%

Fionn1952

It'll be pretty hard to spin anything below 40 seats as anything but a poor showing alright. All the SF talk of, 'steadying the ship' from the handful of PR disasters this year will be a pretty meagre runners up prize.

I heard plenty of, 'down the pub' talk of voting for them, plenty of the same ones there on Saturday who didn't bother going out to vote (same ones will be the most vocally critical of the government). If that's going on here in Meath West, where SF had a decent showing, I can't imagine it isn't replicated even more strongly in other constituencies.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908325#Comment_122908325

The staus quo maintained here. That's all we can really say.

There are less people who want a FG FF led government and more who don't want a FF FG Green government.
Less people want a SF led government

So the pressure should now be put on the other parties of the left NOT to go in with a FF FG led government.

Will be interesting to see now, if they do.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908335#Comment_122908335

I heard plenty of, 'down the pub' talk of voting for them, plenty of the same ones there on Saturday who didn't bother going out to vote (same ones will be the most vocally critical of the government)

Has been a feature of Irish life long before SF came to prominence to be fair.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908316#Comment_122908316

From that, I gather that you have calculated that the fall in support of all three parties in government added up nearly gets to the fall in support for the single party that you support?

The dust is beginning to settle on this election, and the analysis pieces are being written and the story is telling:

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/sam-mcbride-electorate-was-there-for-the-taking-but-sinn-fein-has-utterly-blown-it/a11935600.html

"The electorate was there for the taking for Sinn Féin. The polling was so consistent that we can have a high degree of confidence in its accuracy; it showed that more than a third of voters were willing to vote for Sinn Féin — but the party blew that with policy contortions, repeated internal spats and a growing sense that it was untrustworthy."

"The potential election of Gerry Hutch in Mary Lou McDonald’s backyard is a personal humiliation. The people of the Sinn Féin leader’s own constituency preferred an infamous gangster over her party running mate."

Pretty accurate summation.

Someone who dedicates their time on a forum obsessively writing about a political party that they hate is one sad individual.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122908444#Comment_122908444

Ah Sam, turning the knife as expected.
Didn't mention that two parties of government in that constituency fell by 9%? Any humiliation there?

pureza

2 take aways really

The majority of people want the country run by the centre,not the left,not SF

The left ,smaller already has shrunk further

The centre won basically

If as looks likely,FFG can govern with like minded independents,you’re looking at 5 years for the left to try build their support in a backdrop (barring another pandemic,war or Trump shock) of hundreds of thousands of new houses being built,full employment,a world class children’s hospital and various new dart and luas lines and other infrastructure projects finished

A tall order

MM is the happiest man today