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June 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

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  • 30-05-2022 8:26am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,373 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT (13.6 is the average 1981-2010 value).

    2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

    3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

    4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

    5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

    6. BONUS _ 21st of June is the summer solstice. Predict the maximum amount of sunshine at any location in Ireland from this list of sunshine recording stations (giving the location with your forecast) _ Belmullet, Casement, Cork, Dublin, Johnstown Castle, Shannon, Valentia. There are other locations that sometimes report, but I am taking the seven that seem to be always in the daily reports. The maximum possible for this would be around 15-16 hours depending on each station's exposure and latitude, but for the contest I will count any forecasts of 14.0 hours or above as being equal for scoring purposes. Seven points for the sunshine duration part, five for the location based on top five scoring 5,4,3,2,1 ... which gives possible super-bonus points.

    Deadline as always is 0300h 1st of June.

    M.T. Cranium ______14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.3 _ 105 _ 105 __ 10.8h Johnstown (may change some of these by deadline)

    NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 7.0h (scores x/5 for location depending on average values)

    note: The average sunshine duration is about 5-6 hours but I would expect that at random that would mean one location might reach 7.0 hours.



«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Danno ______14.2 _ 26.7 _ 3.1 _ 65 _ 125 __ 14.9h Dublin Airport



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,920 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry______14.2 _ 24.2 _ 1.5 _ 97 _ 105__ 7.4h Casement

    Post edited by pauldry on


  • Registered Users Posts: 340 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 13.6° ___ 26.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 95 ___ 105 ___ 8 hrs Dublin.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,748 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo __________ 13.4 _ 24.2 _ 3.8 _ 98 _ 95 __ 6.3h Dublin Airport



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,769 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal __________ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 2.8 _ 90 _ 103 __ 11.0h Valentia



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  • Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 ______14.2 _ 24.5 _ 3.5 _ 90 _ 110 __ 11.0h Belmullet



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,780 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ______13.9 _ 24.9 _ 1.8 _ 95 _ 108 __ 8.8h Casement



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ______14.1 _ 25.1 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 90 __ 2.5 h Casement



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,987 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 __________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 3.6 _ 90 _ 105 __ 6.8h Dublin



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall_____13.7_____26.2___2.8____130____88___7.8hrs__oakpark



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public ______14.4 _ 27.3_ 2.1 _ 89 _ 120 __ 8.4h Shannon



  • Registered Users Posts: 711 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 94 __ 3.0h Johnstown Castle



  • Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭waterways


    waterways __________ 13.9 _ 27.4 _ 2.9 _ 91 _ 109 __ 6.0h Valencia

    Post edited by waterways on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,824 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop__13.4__24.5__1.9__130__80__12.3h Johnstown



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __________ 13.9__ 27.5 _ 1.1_ 90 _ 95 __ 9 hours Belmullet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 388 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner____14___26.5___1.8___100___100___12h.Dublin(Phoenix)



  • Registered Users Posts: 814 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610______14.3 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 107 _ 105__ 14h phoenix park



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa ______14.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 97 __ 8.2h Phoenix Park



  • Registered Users Posts: 189 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3______14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105__ 10h oakpark



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,112 ✭✭✭John mac


    johnmcc __________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 103_ 107 __ 7.0h bellmullet



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,373 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for June 2022


    FORECASTER _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN ___ Max sun 21st


    Tae laidir ____________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 115 _ 094 ___ 3.0h Johnstown

    Sunflower3 __________ 14.4 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 115 _ 105 __ 10.0h Johnstown*

    Joe Public ___________ 14.4 _ 27.3 _ 2.1 _ 089 _ 120 ___ 8.4h Shannon

    Adam240610 _________14.3 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 107 _ 105 __ 14.0h Dublin

    Danno ______________ 14.2 _ 26.7 _ 3.1 _ 065 _ 125 __ 14.9h Dublin

    Dasa29 _____________ 14.2 _ 24.5 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 110 __ 11.0h Belmullet

    Pauldry _____________ 14.2 _ 24.2 _ 1.5 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 7.4h Casement

    Artane2002 __________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 3.6 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 6.8h Dublin

    Dacogawa ___________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 097 ___ 8.2h Dublin

    M.T. Cranium _________14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.3 _ 105 _ 105 __ 10.8h Johnstown

    sryanbruen __________ 14.1 _ 25.1 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 2.5h Casement

    ___ Con Sensus ______ 14.1 _ 25.5 _ 2.8 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 8.4h (see below)

    MrSkinner ___________14.0 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 100 _ 100 __ 12.0h Dublin

    Bsal _______________ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 2.8 _ 090 _ 103 __ 11.0h Valentia

    Jpmarn _____________13.9 _ 27.5 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 103 ___ 9.0 hours Belmullet

    waterways __________ 13.9 _ 27.4 _ 2.9 _ 091 _ 109 ___ 6.0h Valentia

    DOCARCH ___________13.9 _ 24.9 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 108 ___ 8.8h Casement

    Mr stonewall ________ 13.7 _ 26.2 _ 2.8 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 7.8h Johnstown*

    Kindred Spirit _______ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 8.0h Dublin

    johnmac ____ (-1) ____13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 103_ 107 ___ 7.0h Belmullet

    ___ NormaL _________13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.0h (loc'n score tbd)

    Appledrop __________ 13.4 _ 24.5 _ 1.9 _ 130 _ 080 __ 12.3h Johnstown

    Gonzo _____________ 13.4 _ 24.2 _ 3.8 _ 098 _ 095 ___ 6.3h Dublin

    ____________________________________________________

    *two entries have Oak Park which is not a sunshine recording location, changed to Johnstown, can alter that if requested (see list in first post or below this note ...)

    Note also that (as far as I know) the Dublin sunshine site is at the airport not in Phoenix Park but they would probably get similar readings -- maybe somebody could look into the actual location, I had always thought it was at the same location as the rest of the weather station instruments for Dub(A) but possibly not.

    Breakdown of sunshine forecasts (not including Normal or Con Sensus) ... the numbers in brackets are the average number of sunshine hours in June as per 30-year normals section of met.ie website, Rosslare used for JC:

    12.0 or more ___ 4 __________ Belmullet (5.2h) 3

    10.0 - 11.9 _____4 __________ Casement (5.3h) 3

    8.0 - 9.9 ______ 5 __________ Dublin (5.8h) 7

    6.0 - 7.9 ______ 6 __________ Johnstown (6.2h) 5

    4.0 - 5.9 ______ 0 __________ Shannon (5.2h) 1

    under 4.0 _____ 2 __________ Valentia (5.3h) 2

    __________________________ Cork (5.8h, no picks)

    Based on your selections, Con Sensus scores 6/6 for Dublin, 5/6 for Johnstown, 4/6 for Belmullet or Casement, 2/6 for Shannon, 1/6 for Shannon, and 0/6 if Cork comes out ahead.


    For your own forecast, you score 6/6 if your pick has the most sunshine, and 5/6 if second, etc. If Cork wins, for our scores that will be ignored. The daily averages are fairly close together, but Normal will score by the rank of the sunniest location in terms of normal sunshine hours. Thus Johnstown would score 6/6 for Normal, Dublin or Cork 5/6, Casement or Valentia 3/6, and Belmullet or Shannon 1/6.

    Our consensus forecast for the month is slightly warmer than average with no significant departures for rainfall or sunshine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,373 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Dublin MIN on 1st was 3.2 C

    (MAX 19.4 at Newport, lots of sunshine average about 11h, not much rainfall in our contest grid)

    Given the bland patterns we have been seeing, a daily tracker approach might be needed so nothing escapes notice.

    Will continue the weekly reports. Plan to be away from internet 9th-14th on much overdue family visit down to coast, but that would not disrupt the timing of the weekly reports; however, in that period would appreciate if some would monitor the MAX and MIN (as some often do anyway and thanks for the help).



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,824 ✭✭✭appledrop


    M.T, I have no problem keeping an eye on daily Max and Min and I know there are a few others like myself who often post them anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,824 ✭✭✭appledrop


    New Min 2.1 at Mt Dillon on 2nd.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,920 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Think it will be hard to see that min beaten as nights shorten even more.

    Max is the next on the list. This weekend will surely break 20c somewhere.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,824 ✭✭✭appledrop


    20 degrees still hasn't been reached yet.

    19.7 at Newport yesterday.

    Weather was a tale of 2 halves yesterday, high of only 14.8 at Dublin Airport, the West had the best of the weather.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,824 ✭✭✭appledrop


    New Max 20.4 at Belmullet yesterday.

    In contrast it was a horrendous day in Dublin never stopped raining from morning to night with Max of only 11.5.

    That must be up there with one of lowest Max for June.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,373 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Would imagine that the all-time low maximum would be in the 8-9 C range, just based on a rough comparison with values in the central England temperature series. If sryanbruen looks in, and you don't have a number already available, check early June 1989 and 1991, there were some very cool days then, also June 1972 was very chilly (I was visiting my relatives in central England that month, it was awfully cold just about every day).



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,748 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Yesterday was the coldest June day in parts of central/southern England since June 1985. Ireland probably not that different although we are prone to colder temperatures more regularly in the summer compared to most of England.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,824 ✭✭✭appledrop


    You can always rely on Sryanbruen, he answered my question on Summer thread.

    Your spot on M.T, low of 9 degrees recorded in June 1964, 1977 and 2009.

    2012 & 2019 also had days with Max of 11 degrees .

    Yesterday is still up there with one of lowest Max recorded.

    Thankfully today turned out to be a much better day in Dublin.



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