A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

fly_agaric

^^Yes, maybe some of them do need the low VAT rate to survive, but if that is the case, maybe the business is not viable?

I have always thought similarly; why should one group get an ultra-low preferential VAT rate vs other sectors, where it could be more useful to have workers/energy etc. concentrated in?

Perhaps as an emergency measure for a crisis that hammers them in particular as Covid certainly did (ending tourism, stopping people gathering in restaurants/bars/cafes etc.) but Covid pandemic and the associated restrictions ended some time ago now.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486516#Comment_122486516

It's FFG govts that have overseen and developed the MNC investment and jobs.

FF were the party that dropped our CT rates to 12.5% and triggered the inflow of well paid, high volume jobs, plus the huge tax take we now recieve and have enjoyed for years.

9 out of every 10 euro paid to the govt in corporation tax is from MNCs.

There are a lot of areas the govt could do better in, but tbf, high value job creation over the past few decades is not one of them.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122485501#Comment_122485501

…oh so thats why we have so much involvement in major sectors such as the fire(finance, insurance and real estate) sectors in our affairs here, most evident in our property markets, those stupid lefties…..seriously!

…so lets analysis this shall we……

what sectors our currently providing the most amount of tax revenue, and our provided with the most amount of state protectionism….

yup its those lefty corporations again!

…and how have we been protecting these entities, shur lets keep taxation on wealth and the accumulation of wealth relatively low, lets encourage acts such as dereliction, land hoarding etc etc, by not placing suitable taxation in order to prevent such….

center left! grow up!

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486472#Comment_122486472

This is a good illustration of why GDP per capita is not a good measure of the welfare of citizens. Another is Ireland with one of the highest GDP / capita numbers though, of course, the citizens of Ireland are still well off by world standards.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487812#Comment_122487812

Ah that must be why so many are trying to come here as refugees (and the busiest thread on this sub is about immigration) skipping over dozens of safe countries like Germany

/s

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486472#Comment_122486472

What you failed to mention is that those on average wages on US do not pay anywhere near the taxes we do, a couple in combined 78K here would be in top 10 percentile of tax payers ffs

You could lower all tax rates to a tenth of what they are today and this stat would still be true. This stat, if true, is not remotely a barometer for what you're claiming.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487210#Comment_122487210

center would be

• provide basics accommodation not a rated houses (whether new or retrofitted) for life.
• Health care where if you go public you share a room (just like private patients currently do). And none of this if your lucky enough to be on public system you get your own room.
• Cutting off benefits for turning down a job on minimum wage regardless of it being more than a 10 min walk or having to use public transport….or god god forbid having to deal with the public

Current government are left of centre……yes they are not the bat **** crazy lefties like Corbin was in the uk. They are not extreme lefties that want everything taxed and everyone with the same take home pay regardless of whether they work or not. But they are left of centre all the same.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122489480#Comment_122489480

…jesus how disconnected are these conservatives, they dont even realise they have a lot of what they truly believe in, i.e. far greater protectionism including state protectionism for wealth, and the accumulation of wealth, significantly low taxes for this accumulation of wealth, including and in particular related to property and land, as this is one of the main methods of accumulating wealth. further public policies in continuing and maintaining this dynamic, including from major institutions such as central banks, with polices such as qe, which was clearly designed to simply re-inflate the value of assets, which are primarily owned by wealth….

…so what you really wanna do is to maintain a much lower standard of living for lower classes….

…noting, not providing these classes with a better standard of living significantly increases the likelihood of dysfunctional outcomes some seriously so including, increasing likelihood of serious long term health issues, both physically and mentally, which of course in turn increases pressures in all aspects of our health system, both in the public and private domain….

…which in turn increases the likelihood of long term unemployment….

….which in turn increases the likelihood of criminal outcomes….

….which of course the taxpayer ultimately pays for…..

…by not providing higher rated housing, this clearly exposes us all to the negative environmental impacts from so…

…and its easy to provide all your needs on minimum wage, especially housing and health care needs etc….

..noting most long term unemployed actually struggle with long term physical and mental health issues, which is ultimately is why they are in their situations, but fail to receive adequate health care….

…noting, cutting off welfare doesnt actually help to resolve such issues, but significantly increases the likelihood of criminal outcomes, and other serious dysfunctions, which again, ends up all being paid for by your friendly taxpayer…..

…noting, many long term unemployed actually struggle with significant social anxieties, including complex psychological disorders such as asd, but in fact are completely unaware of their issues, therefore have never received suitable supports…..

…again, you are completely wrong, our current ffg government are clearly center to center right, for the reasons outlined, but yes they do have some what would have been traditional left policies in place, but the bulk are more to the right, you ve no idea what you re talking about…..

Timing belt

As for the rant on disadvantaged etc there are plenty of middle class families in a worse situation… just drive around and see who is getting full retrofit of houses and who’s not for an example. Your comment on failing to receive adequate health care applies way more to people that don’t have a medical card or doctors card and financially can’t afford to pay.

government are centre at the best (left of it in my opinion) but no way any bit to the right (except for not wanting stuff nationalised etc.)…. This is creating a vacuum in Irish politics and leaving a door open for the crazy’s on the right. Populism has overtaken common sense.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122488107#Comment_122488107

In the us to be in the top 10 percentile of tax payers one has to earn $168K that’s double of here

Here a married couple who is a teacher and gardai who can’t afford even the cheapest hovel (nor qualify for a mortgage) in Dublin be easily in top 10 percentile of taxpayers

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122487037#Comment_122487037

They haven't a clue and it's just a soundbite.

VAT reductions should be passed to the consumer. They weren't passed on by the vast majority of the hospitality industry, it was kept by them. And many then had the audacity to raise prices when VAT was restored to 13.5%. And if now it is reduced (which thankfully it won't be) they would again pocket that money for themselves.

The amount of small business owners I see who don't understand VAT is unreal. They don't ring fence the money and then whinge every 2 months about not having the cash to pay it. People like that cannot run a successful business when they don't understand the fundamentals.

Too many of thise hospitality based businesses need to be put out to pasture as they clearly aren't viable if they need a slight reduction in VAT to keep them profitable.

Their focus should instead be on their high overheads like rent, insurance, payroll and ingredients...but all they seem focuses on is VAT.

Cape Clear

I always find the various debates around child benefit interesting.

Just to put the curr byent rate in perspective and talk of an increase next year below are the figures for 2008.

Child Benefit rates increase by €6 for the first two children and €8 for the third and subsequent children. Rate for first two children will be €166 per month (each) and rate for third and subsequent children is €203 per month (each) (April 2008).

In 2008/09 a family with 3 children were paid €6,420 in child benefit in 2024 the payment is €5,040.

We had some hangover from the Celtic Tiger.

uptherebels

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122490572#Comment_122490572

Yes the government are no bit to the right, yet let vulture funds run free, run every public service into the ground and transfer as much public funds into private hands as they possibly can

Thespoofer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486174#Comment_122486174

As far as I know Poland is one.

silliussoddius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122490803#Comment_122490803

They are?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122490594#Comment_122490594

Again, this has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the tax rates paid in both jurisdictions and is just another comment on salary rates.

uptherebels

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122493162#Comment_122493162

Which part did you have trouble with?

yagan

I'd say we have a centre left society now but government is still centre right because they're propping eachother up.

When the repeal ref was being debated half of the sitting FF tds actually voted against a referendum on the issue being allowed.

silliussoddius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495501#Comment_122495501

That you made wide ranging claims without evidence, I've no doubt vulture funds are only out for themselves but they way they have been portrayed in recent years is borderline cartoonish.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495569#Comment_122495569

…i always think you have to be careful making such judgments about society as a whole, you d be surprised of the amount of right leaning folks we have here, with a growing number of more extreme right, but we do also have a large amount of center left leaning people here to, as i am myself….

yup, ffg will prevent any alternative government being formed, for as long as possible, and it ll work to….

…this will cause significant social unrest, helping to move more and more towards the extremes, this is gonna get very very messy…..

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495583#Comment_122495583

We're off tangent from the thread but I reckon there's plenty of skeletons in both FG and FF cupboard that could implode either party at any moment. the way i see it is that compared to the past society is more liberal now on personal choice, but that liberality also extends to any policies that favours house prices being kept high; or basically liberal individual voters that also vote conservatively to prop up their asset values.

Larbre34

Do you reckon?

To what information do you owe this insight?

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495681#Comment_122495681

I consulted with the hawk, and he agreed.

I suppose we should get back on topic.

uptherebels

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495571#Comment_122495571

Just the vulture funds? Or you struggled with the others as well?

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122469177#Comment_122469177

A week later

Outside of frothiest AI companies where there is clearly a bubble everything resumed the up and to right trajectory

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122468990#Comment_122468990

Yup, some “recession” that ended up to be

Sweet.Science

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/cyprus-based-cuckoo-fund-trying-to-sell-up-to-120-irish-homes-due-to-poor-return-on-investment/a833083918.html

Another fund looking to get rid of properties.

fergiesfolly

If you can't make money in the Irish property market at the moment, you're not trying very hard. Or you're a really bad business person

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508852#Comment_122508852

only takes one or two bad tenants to make a profitable business a very unprofitable business overnight.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509267#Comment_122509267

…although this can be very true, the real gains in property is in flipping the asset after some time, as prices are amongst the quickest to inflate over time….

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509322#Comment_122509322

that’s exactly the point…the time it takes to resolve problem tennant and get removed from property restricts the ability to dispose of the asset at fair value

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509343#Comment_122509343

there definitely is a serious problem in regards landlords being unable to appropriately evict problem tenants, but since theres virtually no public back up in housing, this is preventing such to happen, it shows the serious dysfunctions occurring within the market as a whole, evicting people with no alternatives available, would simply cause far more serious social dysfunctions. the whole process is a mess, and getting worse, we have to reintroduce appropriate numbers of public/social housing again into the system, in order to be able to implement appropriate eviction polices, but thats actually not gonna happen, so on we go….

…our current approach actually isnt truly working for either tenants or many landlords, but larger institutional landlords have far greater state and institutional protections in place, compared to much smaller, single landlords etc, smaller landlords are deeply exposed at the moment, but thats extremely common in many other sectors, as sme's are generally far more exposed to environmental market conditions compared to much larger, corporate entities etc…..

…its a serious mess….

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509404#Comment_122509404

public housing just means rent not paid to someone else which then leaves the only option being deduct from source. (All because of a small minority of people who know that there is no consequences for there actions). It has nothing to do with social v private housing!!!!!

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509986#Comment_122509986

…and little or no public/social housing is one of the main reasons why landlords simply cant evict people, so you either want you some sort of solution to our housing issues or you want even more dysfunctional outcomes, including for landlords…..

..i do actually agree with a deduction at source, but an increase in welfare payments would also be needed, as many are simply not paying rent as they cant meet their needs as is….

..increasing welfare would in fact obviously directly benefit recipients, but the economy at large, as most money received would be spent almost immediately into the economy, benefitting the businesses that receive these monies, therefore creating further jobs….

…oh god its god a hell of a lot to do with public v's private housing, as most western economies have moved away from a more public housing approach, and moved more so towards market based approaches, and surprise surprise, we re all experiencing the exact same housing problems, i.e. hyper inflated property prices, highly dysfunctional markets and serious supply problems….

…and surprise surprise, countries that have maintained a more state centric model in regards housing, are not experiencing as serious problems, although some problems in themselves, but no where near as serious as our approach….

…so fcuk yea, its got everything to do with public v's private, although the solution is clearly a mixture of both, but thats actually not going to happen, not this decade anyway, and maybe not even next decade either, so get ready….

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122510089#Comment_122510089

…..put the money into training or on accommodations to help people with needs in the workplace as opposed to just writing them off for life…. That would be a much better use of funds than just increase benefits across the board… but that’s a different topic. With regards not paying rent and problem tenants it’s worth remembering that some of these people not paying rent and causing issues wouldn’t qualify for social housing anyway and are doing it to pull a fast one because they know nothing can be done….Thats what’s wrong with this country.

brickster69

Good news for supply chains given the chaos in the Red sea with many shipments having to go round Africa. Shipping from Chinese ports to Europe should be quicker and cheaper now the Northern Sea route has officially opened.

brickster69

Looks like the new alternative global payment system will be popular.

https://twitter.com/stats_feed/status/1824696885266776502

Podge_irl

I'm not even bothered with my usual denunciation of how stupid BRICs is as a thing.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514497#Comment_122514497

The C in BRICS didn’t get the memo

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8

above is a Chinese owned publication

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514497#Comment_122514497

It is only an alternative, another option for businesses to conduct global trade without the worry of getting caught up in political matters. Of course most the world will join up, it will be quicker, cheaper and can use whatever currency you want. It's not the end of the world and perfectly legal, it's called progress.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122515839#Comment_122515839

another option for businesses to conduct global trade without the worry of getting caught up in political matters

Are you still talking about BRICS payment system here?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122515839#Comment_122515839

because famously the BRICS countries aren't caught up in any political matters.

silliussoddius

…..

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122516202#Comment_122516202

Yes

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122516310#Comment_122516310

Then it is sad really. It is as if I say Tesco is a charity organisation.

Danye

So folks, the huge recession that was scheduled to happen following the market collapse two weeks ago, is that still on schedule or what’s the deal?

silliussoddius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122520265#Comment_122520265

It had to be postponed due to Klaus Schwab having a bad back.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122520265#Comment_122520265

Like I said at the time

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122468827#Comment_122468827

Made 6% in last two weeks on my 212 account more than offsetting loses of that day

Over two years into this thread, eventually the stopped clocks will be right, tho “eventually” is an indeterminate time away

Meanwhile

https://youtu.be/j_ieVtfl8DM?si=H6uxUorQbvhrhL5v

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122516258#Comment_122516258

meanwhile

https://twitter.com/Ramanuskas3/status/1825578647102558601

brickster69

China launch new anti subsidy probe into dairy products.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3275306/china-opens-tit-tat-probe-imported-eu-dairy-products

Also announces export controls of Antimony

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-antimony-export-restrictions-impact-us-national-security

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122520366#Comment_122520366

Speaking of Klaus. At least he is kind enough to give us a bit of warning.