A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

brickster69

People go on about this GDP being the size of Spain and being easy to ruin it's economy was just wrong.

Firstly Spain is in debt up to it's eyeballs Russia is 14% debt to GDP and who knows how much they have tucked away over the years in diamonds and gold. You can guarantee they won't advertise it.

Hypothetically lets imagine the roles were reversed.

Spain gets sanctioned by the West

All air routes closed. No tourism sorry

OIL & gas supplies halted

Sea freight cancelled in and out

Road freight closed in and out

No access to Swift and banks shut off

300 billion frozen

How long do they last and what would be it's GDP in a months time ? They could not last a fortnight, now do it with any other European country the same.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186139#Comment_120186139

But that's utterly irrelevant, nobody is sanctioning Spain. Russia is horrid place to be a citizen right now and that's not changing any time soon.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186157#Comment_120186157

I am making a comparison. One has no natural resources the other has all of them and 85% of the world is happy to keep buying them. If the other 85% cut them off it would be different, but then the whole global economy would collapse in 6 months.

brickster69

CPI going down for third month in a row.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186429#Comment_120186429

What do you think it means?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185560#Comment_120185560

Russia is moving to Asia - great, they are presently fleecing the Russians like there is no tomorrow. Europe cannot be energy reliant on a dictator that is invading Europe (Putin very much seems himself at war with Europe and the West). Not interested in your frothy Clare Daly narratives blaming "the West" either.

Despite Putin's best efforts to flood Europe with war refugees and use energy as a weapon (on top of inflation, post-pandemic and high inflation), economically speaking, so far, we're doing relatively okay.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186139#Comment_120186139

"Russia has been sanctioned, but it's still there, ergo sanctions don't work"

Again, the sanctions are tools, they are to reduce Russia's capacity to fuel it's war machine, to punitively punish, to financially and internationally isolate Russia, to stop certain components and materials from being used by e.g. the weapons industry in Russia. It also gives the international community leverage in any negotiations.

Sanctions hurt both sides, but not equally.

Not sure how this is related to the topic, but if Russia had not invaded Ukraine, they would be in a significantly better economic situation, with no expensive war, no sanctions, etc.

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186191#Comment_120186191

You are 100 percent right.

If spain decides to invade Portugal then they are fucked. I have booked marked this page for future generations for this insight into the complex economic system.

Books will be written on your post. Government policy changed after reading it. You username will echo on the halls of universities for years to come.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186487#Comment_120186487

Falling energy prices are lowering the rate of inflation and everything else is the same. You ?

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186138#Comment_120186138

Russia will remain a poor country with a tiny economy but it is still doing ok with the oil, not as good.

However nearly every aspect from insurance, the tankers, as Javier Blas, Bloombergs main Energy journalist said,

"the oil traders are Russian

the oil tankers are Russian-owned

the oil insurance is Russian

the oil finance is Russian

And so it’s Russia who makes money on each and every step of that chain. But, sure, focus on the FOB price."

Has Russia made it hard for itself, done deep damage to its economy and lost a fortune, certainly.

In time they will work around the sanctions, the Shadow fleet of oil tankers is at an all time high, countries like Malaysia are exporting vast volumes of crude, from a few wells.,,🤔.

Russia's economy will tick along at a low level , poverty-stricken but it will also be able to keep up the war for years to come.

Most of the world doesn't really care. Sanctions are only ever a part and take many years to work. Not saying that they shouldn't be increased, they should but Asia and Africa will help Russia work around it bit by bit.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186565#Comment_120186565

Strange that no one ever mentions the other two types of oil they sell 24/7 via pipelines to Asia that trades at $20 more.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186561#Comment_120186561

Me? Just on this graph, nothing particular.

I was just curious to understand why you posted this on this thread as you didn’t add any other information or explanation.

brickster69

Germany to start importing pipeline oil from a new supplier this month.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-ship-20000-tonnes-oil-kazakhstan-germany-via-druzhba-pipeline-feb-2023-01-31/

Jonnyc135

Will be interesting to see the Q4 2022 results for the big companies in the next few weeks. My honest opinion is that they may hold up better than expected with last push for xmass spending or as someone put it here before buying the last round of drink when the lights flash in the pub. I am still a firm believer that the Q1 2023 results come April will cause big upsets and Q2 come July will be even worse, with all that negative news about incoming earnings recessions globally and markets falling, energy prices will back off greatly. Peak inflation was in June and July 2022, so comparing the June and July 2023 inflation numbers (and the FED new rules on monitoring CPI over 1 year, fiddling the system to the detriment of the normal joe soap if you ask me) to this coupled with all the above I can see inflation well down with the FED talking up lowering rates. This seems to be the general consensus of the bond market too - time will tell.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186194#Comment_120186194

Why would they need to borrow when they could just pop downstairs to the vault and flog a few ton of gold if they wanted. It is not normal you know, just to keep borrowing and printing money to solve debt problems.

If you are struggling a bit the worst thing to do is to borrow money, best off just tightening the belt and live within your means. That is what i was taught anyway, if you can't afford it, save up for it and then buy it.

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120187844#Comment_120187844

"If you are struggling a bit the worst thing to do is to borrow money, best off just tightening the belt and live within your means. That is what i was taught anyway, if you can't afford it, save up for it and then buy it."

This is often true when talking about household debt, but not always the case for state borrowing. An injection of money into an economy through lending can lead to increased economic activity leading to increased capacity to repay, or can prevent an economy from collapsing altogether (2008-2012 Ireland).

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120188020#Comment_120188020

Good point and very true. Debt can be beneficial as long as the borrowed money is invested wisely to generate extra revenue which in turn should enable the debt to be reduced quicker. Problem is the extra debt keeps getting bigger which is the total opposite of what should happen in my opinion.

Maybe i am just a little old fashioned i don't know.

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186138#Comment_120186138

ROFL hahahah yada yada yada... Where did I say richer?

I said they will be better off than people in the EU in the next few years simply because they do have access to everything they need domestically where we and most of the EU needs to import nearly everything.

And comparing them to us is frankly ridiculous. The only industry at the present in Ireland is because of tax avoidance we offer. It is being noted and disliked by the EU which will put an end to it soon. Oh yes, we have everything bigger including public debt per capita (10x more), general government debt as percentage of gdp (55% to their 17%) and dicks most likely too.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120189489#Comment_120189489

Europe has loads of their own raw materials, but due to the bureaucracy of the European Union we are now reliant on exports. The union is the problem not Europe in this context. When all the bio diversity, soil preservation and forestry regulations are pushed down to the member states food security will be well and truly in jeprody, the leaked DG agri for Europe this week says it straight from the horses mouth but the EU being so high and mighty will make a bollox out of it yet again.

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186642#Comment_120186642

It was you who made this ridiculous claim. I never said they will be richer than Europe. Hardly anyone here is rooting for likes of Russia to "win" it is just your own russophobia clouding your mind where everyone here who do not slag them is automatically russian bot.

It is also equally ridiculous to claim that russia winning over ukraine equals collapse of western civilisation.

brickster69

A big news day ahead today.

Alphabet, Amazon & Apple all release earnings in the US

BOE & ECB expected to rise interest rates by .5%

UK hospitality sounds like it is taking a battering as the rate rises start to kick in.

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1620708908720324608

Sierra Oscar

The catastrophe hasn't hit just yet anyways.

https://twitter.com/logical_conor/status/1621061613158645760

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185560#Comment_120185560

Hard to know where to begin with that utter nonsense

The Russian economy is the same size as Italy's.

The EU is not 'trying to be at war with Russia" ffs.

But yeah, Russia strong like bear and Putin master military strategist. 🙄

brickster69

Growth predicted to grow more in 2024 for Europe according to the IMF.

brickster69

New price caps agreed by the EU on oil products that they cannot buy from Sunday. This comes nearly one year since the war started in which they have bought 700K barrels of diesel alone everyday.

https://twitter.com/Stockeys1/status/1621559418046365701

jmayo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185560#Comment_120185560

They sanctions as is don't really work when Russia still has massive oil and gas sales.

Russia effectively is at war with NATO members in Europe and the US, who are funding and suppling Ukraine with high grade military material.

Russia can't afford to compete against that.

Putin should learn from history, the Soviet Union ended up competing with US in Afghanistan, it failed and it hastened the end of the Soviet Union.

This isn't 1940s where you can throw together military equipment and ordinance any old way in any old place.

If they try that they will just contine building way inferior equipment and sustaining heavy losses.

brickster69

Ukraine want secondary sanctions from the US. I doubt that will happen, it would prevent the US buying diesel from India who then sell it at a profit to Europe.

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/1621515488772902915

Sierra Oscar

US unemployment hits a 53 year low.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/jobs-report-january-2023-.html

The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% versus the estimate for 3.6%. That is the lowest jobless level since May 1969. The labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.4%.

brickster69

India's refiners have started buying most of it's oil in a different currency

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indian-refiners-pay-traders-dirhams-russian-oil-2023-02-03/

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120198958#Comment_120198958

Inflation ain't going nowhere so