A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948081#Comment_122948081

Where at the new build housing estates in every village?

We haven’t reached what we’re building before 2008 nor for that matter even building half of what is needed today

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2024/06/19/ireland-needs-to-build-85000-homes-a-year-to-address-structural-shortfall-in-housing/

Rooks

Its based on the report released by the ESRI, and it's findings are not without merit. But to equate today's property market with 2007 is simply not accurate. I wish people would stop doing that and stick to the actual problems facing the Irish property market in 2024.

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948200#Comment_122948200

That’s what I done, we’re building maybe 40% of what’s needed and that 40% is also below previous building spurt peak

The surprise is that houses are not even more expensive seeing how much the population has grown

Rooks

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948208#Comment_122948208

I wasn't referring to you in that comment, I probably should have been clearer. The person above who I quoted earlier was talking about the ESRI report. It's on all the newspapers.

j62

Good news keeps on rolling

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpi/consumerpriceindexnovember2024/

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% between November 2023 and November 2024, up from an annual increase of 0.7% in the 12 months to October 2024.
• Excluding energy and unprocessed food, the CPI went up by 2.0% in the 12 months to November 2024.
• The divisions with the largest increases in the 12 months to November 2024 were Restaurants & Hotels (+3.8%) and Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+3.5%).
• The divisions to record the largest declines when compared with November 2023 were Clothing & Footwear (-7.5%) and Transport (-1.6%).
• Consumer prices fell by 0.5% in the month between October 2024 and November 2024.

6541

Working in IT, large multinational. Two points. System Integrators that we use for big projects are telling me that everything is slowing.

Also mates that are IT contracting are telling me that contracts are not as available as this time last year.

Definitely something going down.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122962997#Comment_122962997

its impossible to say what will or wont happen, economy's fluctuate, thats just the nature of the beast, end of year/early year tightening happens virtually every year, next year could very well be virtually the same as this year, who knows, but if we end up in a trade war, all bets are off….

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122963022#Comment_122963022

the real risk is that USA ends up with inflation at the same time the economy is slowing and as a result can’t cut rates as the impact on the currency exchange rate would just make the whole situation worse ….a trade war would land them exactly in that position

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122963457#Comment_122963457

yup, and trump is gonna try pick a fight with the fed, to try force those rates down, gonna get messy!

greenfield21

China economy continues to deteriorate. Even the d word is mentioned.

https://wsjchina.cmail20.com/t/d-e-sslkdk-drdlkuihdd-r/

In reality, businesses are struggling to keep their lights on, people are having severe difficulty in finding jobs, and municipalities are drowning in debt. Even government employees aren’t getting paid.

It feels like depression,” a reader in China recently wrote to me.

Danye

I am curious, how people really see 2025 pan out for Ireland’s economy?

Are we sleepwalking into something?

McWilliams piece below from before US election.

https://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/post/why-a-donald-trump-election-win-could-signal-the-end-of-ireland-s-golden-years

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122972517#Comment_122972517

tis looking like a tricky year, and if we end up in a full on trade war, it wont end well, but who knows, it could be just grand overall, still think our housing market will remain as is heading into 26 though, i.e. fcuked and hyper inflationary…..

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122972517#Comment_122972517

More of the same.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-economic-apocalypse/

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122974971#Comment_122974971

”Put simply, Europeans don’t work enough. An average German employee, for example, works more than 20 percent fewer hours than their American counterparts. 

A further cause of Europe’s sagging productivity is the corporate sector’s failure to innovate.“

You can see that on this thread with the bizzare crusade against technology and things like datacenters and AI

Oh and this gem which applies to a Ireland as well, since we are determined to emulate the failed policies of Germany (like the 1-2 trillion euro wasted on Energiewende)

“Faced with some of the world’s highest energy costs, expensive labor and onerous regulation, many big German companies are simply upping stakes and relocating to other regions.”

Rooks

The prayer candles are still being lit I see.

babyducklings1

Our social welfare bill is massive. Something has to give. Over the last two nights the trending search ( well one of the top five) on google in Ireland was social welfare. Are people feeling the pinch or creaming the system? Who knows.

dollylama

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122975684#Comment_122975684

I'd imagine the trending search had something to do with the Christmas bonus you get on social this time of year. There were also double payments thrown in in the last budget which came due recently

I'll reserve my thoughts other than to say I agree with your sentiment

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122972517#Comment_122972517

Two large existing challenges are:

(1) the price level of goods and services is way too high

(2) house prices and rents are too high

I am worried about two further challenges:

(3) over dependence on CT receipts, and the Trump response to that

(4) the impact of possible tariffs started by Trump

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122974985#Comment_122974985

american employment demands hardly leads to their significantly high mental health and addiction problems, and lads going around shooting folks!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122975684#Comment_122975684

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122975730#Comment_122975730

…one of the best ways to stimulate an economy is to inject money into the economy via lower classes, as most of that money will be spent almost immediately, this greatly helps businesses, especially sme's that receive this money, take away that money and you re gonna have a much bigger problem!

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122977491#Comment_122977491

why the hell does an economy with full employment require further stimulus via helicopter money?

If you’re talking about supporting SME’s then rather than give money to lower class and generate wage inflation throughout all sectors. Or money to leave the state you would be far better off using the money in tax breaks for SME’s or grants for training/development. (I.e. takeout the middle man and all the issues that occur as a result).

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122976971#Comment_122976971

3 and 4 will probably sort 1 and 2 and not in a good way.

What do you bet with all the billions extra in tax the government has collected over the years.

They wont have a pot to piss in when a downturn comes.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122979232#Comment_122979232

The government have done a great job of wasting the tax windfall. Our public services shouldn't be so dire and our housing and transport issues should be improving rather than getting worse. If a downturn in tax revenues comes, we will rue all the waste. Those problems we have also make us much less competitive.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122979086#Comment_122979086

the velocity of our money supply is gradually slowing, this is a common issue globally, this greatly exposes many sectors, in particular sme's, making them far more vulnerable to economic shocks, its also critical to note, most are actually employed in the sme sectors, so by not implementing appropriate protections such as increasing the supply of money towards these sectors, this could in fact lead to a far greater problem of increasing business failures, thus an increase in unemployment.

this approach was critical during covid, this is exactly what government payments such a pup done, and in turn prevented many businesses from going bust, and of course, preventing many households from serious problems, this also prevented a catastrophic financial crisis.

such stimulation again directly helps lower classes by aiding them in meeting their needs, but by direct economic stimulation, as we can see, tax breaks to certain sectors, i.e. hospitality etc, doesnt always means direct savings towards customers, but can actually just mean increased profiteering by such sectors!

again, its critical to state, inflation is largely supply side in the modern economy, and not via the demand side, i.e. the money supply, this can be seen in the rapid increase in widescale profiteering in certain sectors such as energy sectors, in the most recent inflationary period!

some wage inflation can in fact be good for society and the economy, reducing poverty, and decreasing wealth inequality, and of course providing direct economic stimulation, by providing more money for spending.

again, lower classes tend to spend more of money received, via employment or welfare, into the economy than higher classes, higher classes tending towards more saving and investment, and overall wealth accumulation, typically via the purchasing of assets such as property etc, which in turn only truly helps by inflating the prices of such assets, which in turn can cause great harm, both social and economically.

but dont worry, we wont move towards such 'helicopter' approaches, but will remain in our current hyper inflated asset market approach, in particular in relation to property, so, tis all good!

Glenomra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122979327#Comment_122979327

Interesting analysis but where do you see things going in the near future.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122979457#Comment_122979457

ah mugs game tbh, theres simply too much complexity in regards making accurate predictions, we ve no real clue of how to predict outcomes, but you can see if we dont do something in regards critical issues such as rising wealth inequality, we re going to continue to see rising social tensions, as we are in probably most advanced economies now.

a trade war would be disastrous for all of us, including the states, so the next couple of years are gonna be critical, trump is so unpredictable, nobody has a clue what he will or wont do, but if he decides to go full on trade war, watch out….

tariffs are inflationary, so central banks will naturally kick in with raising rates, and off to the races we go, but this all depends what he does or doesnt do…

clearly this would negatively impact ireland, as we do significant trade with the states….

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122979327#Comment_122979327

A slowing of velocity of money is either a fall in GDP or an increase in money supply!!!!!

globally there has been an increase in money supply for past few years so naturally velocity of money will slow.

As for helicopter money yes it’s a useful tool to have to counteract a major economic shock but is not something to be used every day. As for increasing benefits to stimulate the economy yet again it’s another tool to transfer money from taxpayers to what you describe as lower classes but is not something that is required when we have full employment as most people have the option to work. Yes there are certain sectors such as disabled or pensioners that this doesn’t apply to but this is not the majority. Remember this spending is being paid for by someone and could be used to deliver infrastructure (which is something that is in place for years to come). It’s not free money….add on top of this we don’t have our own currency. All you are suggesting is to implement the disastrous economic policies we have seen in argentina over the years.

brickster69

Certainly going to be a strange year with the " tariff king " back on the scene. Looks like he means business this time around.

Rooks

Tariff wars benefit no one. You might as well shoot yourself in the foot.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122983942#Comment_122983942

Well they really only hurt those who raise the tariffs. For example when Trump tariffed EU steal we didn't reciprocate with tariffs on a US export that was essential, namely leisure goods like Harley Davison bikes. As this dampened EU demand it made production of the bikes for the US market more expensive, so in essence the consumers of the country that raised the tariff wall ended up paying indirectly.

It is rather ironic that after nearly a century of protectionist policies Argentina is removing barriers to trade while Trump raises them. Both are loud populists that people like to compare, but in practice their policies are opposite.

ottolwinner

one of the biggest problems with the Panama Canal is related to climate change. There isn’t enough water to cater for the amount of ships that want to use it. I wonder will trump take control of that problem too if he has the vested interest for the USA.