A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122929513#Comment_122929513

You would do well to take some time to see the world

One question that the moaners and doomsters and BRICS peddlers and conspiracy theorists (there’s an overlap usually between these) on this site can’t answer when asked is very simple

If not Ireland then exactly where is the grass greener?

This country has issues but I can’t think of anywhere else that doesn’t, and quite often worse issues

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122929513#Comment_122929513

Wealth to some people is owning the lastest iphone because i didnt have one in the 80s

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122929364#Comment_122929364

If the multinational tax money leaves Ireland then we go back to the 80s pretty sharpish, I don’t think it will in the near term but if it does then this country is in for one hell of a shock.

Rooks

Its not news to me that certain people salivate at the prospect of Ireland collapsing.

So it goes.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122933277#Comment_122933277

The government are not helping our future FDI windfall with all the infrastructural problems i.e. housing, traffic, electricity grid, water services, planning system etc. These problems are impacting our competitiveness. However I cannot see the current group of MNCs leaving anytime soon. The IT companies would be more mobile than the Medtech companies.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122929538#Comment_122929538

What would you replace those MNC jobs and CT revenue with?

j62

Good positive podcast from Irish economists on how we should be patting ourselves on the back

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3qP7jcmptz4f2t1uc2GEED?si=2ZX9-VKrTFWsNwaRVMgDhw&t=1067

and be screaming and advertising from rooftops that little Ireland is an island of political stability in turbulent and unpredictable times

Many a CEO must be well chuffed with themselves in choosing Irleand as base of operations compared to UK or other EU countries

Mentions the figures I posted earlier than even stripping away our distorted GDP figures the CSO modified demand figures are fantastic

Hontou

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122935858#Comment_122935858

They are not replaceable. But we could start building on small domestic industries, parallel to keeping the MNC's happy as a start. Our universities are churning out engineering graduates at the moment (amongst many rubbish degrees). These graduates should be able to diversify their skills from presently working in pharmaceutical manufacturing to other areas of manufacturing. But what? I don't know. Food? We probably should go back to our agricultural roots. High-quality processed foods for export. Much lower margins than pharmaceuticals, but we must have alternative jobs for our skilled workforce. We also should be pushing tourism more. A large proportion of Europeans are now living in unbearable heat during the Summer months. Ireland's cold Summers are suddenly a selling point. 'Cool Tourism'.

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122935833#Comment_122935833

Another reason why the crusade the Greens (who are now thankfully gone) had against datacenters in Ireland was so bizzare

Beside bringing in jobs and capital these datacenters are hard to relocate without major expense which would physically tie those companies further to Ireland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122939928#Comment_122939928

see previous point about datacenters, we could have gone in early on the AI wave but no

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122940097#Comment_122940097

The AI value exists in 1) AI hardware design

and 2) AI usecases and software

Datacenters are neither of those - they are just a deployment of hardware in whatever jurisdiction gives the cheapest electricity and highest network speeds. (And tax breaks)

To go in early on the AI wave we would have needed more investment in start-ups, especially AI startups. Datacenters are not part of "the wave"

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122942897#Comment_122942897

Datacenters are very much part of the AI wave and more importantly physically tie companies to Ireland with very capital expensive and heavy equipment that is not cheap to move or write off

Look at top winners in AI in last 5 years

• Nvidia - GPUs
• TSMC - Chips
• ASML - chip creation tools
• Microsoft - OpenAI
• Amazon / Google - Hyperscallers
• Apple - Consumer AI
• Supermicro - Servers
• Equinix - Datacenters
• Southern and other electricity companies across US who are wining due to long term electricity contracts

All of these are to do with hardware, software, equipment, tools, energy for AI to run in datacenters

Every one of above has double, triple, quadruple digit percentage growth last few years mainly due to AI

Instead of jumping on board (tho to be fair a lot of these companies are in Ireland to some degree) the Greens were busy making us a country with one of the most expensive electricity prices and actively blocking datacenter construction

From Apple in Athenry to Google etc in Dublin

Cluedo Monopoly

Our potential for offshore wind generation is absolutely enormous. However our ineffective governments are moving at glacial pace. We have offshore wind targets for 2030 which will be missed completely. Embarrassingly so. The auctions and planning are moving at an absolute snails pace while build costs are increasing all the time. The government also need to provide the infrastructure for these large projects. Other countries will get there way ahead of us and for much cheaper. Another opportunity lost during our tax haven windfall era.

Gusser09

Laughable that this thread is now 2.5 years old and economies are only getting stronger. Serious egg on the face for the OP.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122942978#Comment_122942978

The majority of money in AI is in hardware, hence NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC for fab.

On software side google/meta/openAI

Then the platforms like AWS/Azure

Datacenters driving AI being built in Ireland offers nothing to the Irish economy nor does it mean Ireland is part of the AI wave. While datacenters are a necessary part of the computing chain, they offer sfa benefit to the area in which they are located. The jobs are almost all in construction, the people using the datacenters compute power are often not based in the country at all - it matters little to them where their compute node is located.

Datacenters are just a drain on our already struggling grid. They are one of the worst "investments" for a nation.

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122943178#Comment_122943178

Yet

Remember the original internet dot com bubble, the main winners originally were hardware too (Cisco, Fibre providers etc)

That burst, but the software companies that emerged and started at that time the googles, amazons and apples went up to levels no one could imagine, even that dying company called Microsoft did well

All of these have datacenters for that first wave too which is still growing and earning Irleand billions twenty years later

Think long term, the crusade against tech companies in Ireland is the height of left wing madness, they pay for our cushy social net

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122943199#Comment_122943199

The datacenters are not earning Ireland billions though.

Our CT rate and the onshoring of international profits into Ireland, is earning us billions. That is completely unrelated to datacenters, and can go away even if the datacenters stay here.

Ireland's goldmine is a result of creative accounting rather than physical assets here. It can go away just as quickly.

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122943214#Comment_122943214

The datacenters are capital intensive heavy heavy installations that cost billions

Making it that much harder for companies to leave

We are stable (socially, politically and geologically) and safe country and we should make the most of that to trap these companies here

The creative accounting is gone for years now (other EU countries have lower rates) yet these companies not only remain but expand, especially as other countries are turning into right basketcases

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122943226#Comment_122943226

The datacenters do not drive billions of taxes to revenue every year.

International profits do - and international profits will only stay here so long as it is most profitable to do so.

If OECD anti-BEPS rules are fully implemented worldwide, OR the US decide to consider IP shifting for tax purposes not legal then Ireland's windfall becomes a black hole in our finances.

It has nothing to do with data centres or physical infrastructure. literally nothing

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122929031#Comment_122929031

The sh1t is gonna hit the fan at some point - that is for certain. How much and what consistency of sh1t and how much damage it will do to the fan are up for debate.

That said, this thread is over 2 years old - how long is a "horizon" defined in time terms?

Rooks

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122943338#Comment_122943338

It was defined in the OP:

"Depending on where you live, things are going to get pretty rough by the end of this year."

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122943424#Comment_122943424

Sorry, I had just checked the date of the post.

engineerws

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122943128#Comment_122943128

Offshore wind when the cost of construction and replacement is factored in produces 4% less carbon than gas.

https://cms.ore.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Carbon-footprint-of-offshore-wind-farm-components_FINAL_AS-3.pdf

Then add in the fact it's intermittent. Offshore wind unless something changes is expensive and not carbon efficient.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122943128#Comment_122943128

Contracts are being abandoned and projects not built all around the world because the sums ain't adding up,,we are lucky we are moving slowly as there's still a chance to abandon the farce.

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122944806#Comment_122944806

Maybe energy or lack of will be the catalyst

for this ever coming recession.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122944928#Comment_122944928

Oil/Gas will be gone in 50 years based on current estimations. I'll be either dead or closing in on 90 by that stage.

I imagine there might be some mayhem a foot if there's no replacements found.

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122944806#Comment_122944806

The last UK offshore auction had offshore wind at double per MW of their already expensive new reactor

For last two years all sorts of offshore projects have fallen through as they are not economically viable

And this is in countries that have decades of offshore construction and maintenance knowhow and expertise (due to oil and gas), something we don’t have in Ireland

Anyone who believes in the offshore wind tooth fairy, go ahead and put your own pension and investment into it, here is Orsted

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122945026#Comment_122945026

Those estimates are always moving further ahead,,, nuclear is the obvious replacement, nuclear subs as big as a village zoom around the world for thirty odd years on a few kg of fuel.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122933277#Comment_122933277

the condemnation of Irish Agriculture would quickly stop if this happens

Sammy2012

Not global but the warnings about our property prices are starting again. Overvalued, unsustainable? Where have we heard this before?

Rooks

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948036#Comment_122948036

Where is the credit bubble?