A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

brickster69

A stupid idea

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1790321734505116149

yagan

The only thing these tariffs do is make global producers with their deep supply chains circumvent the USA.

It reminds me of the protective substitution policies that Argentina applied. They thought it a good idea that any item they felt could be produced in Argentina be protected from imports, which in turn put up tariffs on Argentinian exports. After that it was a gradual slide into economic isolation for a country that riveled the USA as a wealthy emigrant destination a century ago.

rob316

Biden is a moron, that'll really help inflation that's only just getting under control. All America are doing is killing their export trade of products with Chinese components.

America are in a world war, but modern warfare is fought through proxies and trade.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136324#Comment_122136324

That's very misleading. The article you linked doesn't say 10,000 foreigners, it says 12,000 permanent residents. There's just short of 850,000 foreign nationals (not including Macau, HK or Taiwan) resident in PRC.

Still a small number by European standards but given the vast size of the country and it being a unitary state that's to be expected. A European moving 500 miles away will almost certainly end up in another country (more likely 3, 4 or 5 countries over), in China not so much.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122138596#Comment_122138596

in all fairness comparing USA to Argentina is a joke…. The fall of Argentina is way more complex let’s not forget it’s land was the bitcoin of its day and resulted in one of the biggest bubbles ever. From there on it was all downhill which was compounded by repeatedly poor governments and even worse decision making. What you’re referring to is only one poor decision.

brickster69

The internet has a good memory

https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1790427438876406159

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122139475#Comment_122139475

I have news for you, Hong Kong rejoined China in 1997 and the Wikipedia article has references to Chinese figures from 20-25 years after that

Yes China with a population 285 times larger than Ireland has less legal migrants and refugees than Ireland, they obviously have no illegal migrants (unless they enjoy jail and their organs harvested) which indicates just how xenophobic they are and/or that no one is daft enough to want to migrate there

Yes Chinese population demographics are a disaster with large drops in next decade and no migration to fill that hole

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122139700#Comment_122139700

…external involvement such as the imf also hasnt helped, countries knackered really, sad to see….

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122140533#Comment_122140533

it’s biggest problem was it’s crazy left wing experimental policies that generate so much debt with nothing to show for it, (no assets, no efficiency), that the only solution was high inflation to get on top of the debt …..It’s a good example of the dangers of to much public debt and the knock on consequences such as inflation/weaker currency etc.

yes a country can print its own money so technically can’t go broke but by doing so the standards of living drop massively as the currency becomes weaker and weaker and inflation goes through the roof which in turn creates a feedback loop that keeps going till the local shop refuses to accept the currency but still the country can still print more money so technically it’s not broke but is a basket case.

This and the fact that there is no continuity of government policy for longer than 2 years so why would you invest in the country knowing in 2 years time your investment could be seized again by the government.

brickster69

Now look what they are up to. Making all these top end chips themselves now, they can't be doing stuff like that surely ?

https://twitter.com/TheSecreteOne/status/1790503239781085321

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122139700#Comment_122139700

The current trajectory of US politics isn't exactly inspiring.

If they banned all phones and cars made in China in the morning then that would be a lot of pension funds wiped out, Berkshire Hathaway would implode.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122140899#Comment_122140899

BRK up 27% in a year 15% year to date

Now go look at Chinese markets, Hong Kong is below its 1997 level

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122140926#Comment_122140926

Not sure if your post is a rebuttal of or an expansion of my point.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122140959#Comment_122140959

The stock market doesn’t agree with your assessment while the ones in China have performed terribly

There’s an attempt to talk up China but the real world figures and indicators speak for themselves

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122140981#Comment_122140981

Since the 1997 handover, Hong Kong's share of China's GDP has dropped from 18% to 2% in 25 years.

How do you reckon the stock market would interpret that?

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122141016#Comment_122141016

China destroyed one of their economic jewels that was handed to them on silver platter?

I tell you what I’ll invest a fictional 1000 dollars in BRK.B today getting 2.43 shares

And you invest a fictional 1000 dollars today in SMIC mentioned higher up which at todays rate would buy you 478.46 shares of 0981.HK
In another two years of this thread while still waiting for a global recession we remember this post due to a reminder and see how our investments performed, deal?

In meantime yourself and bricklayer higher up will change your pensions to 100% weighted China fund and demand your employers pay you in yuan because you have read online that the euro/dollar days are finished and China is the future and there a global recession coming any day now

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122141065#Comment_122141065

A lot of projecting in that post.

The great thing about hyperinflation is everyone becomes a millionaire!

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122141149#Comment_122141149

About time the doomsters put their own money where their mouths are, and it starkly puts into context just how insane some of the posts in this thread are

Why would anyone in Ireland willingly cheer on for China/Russia/Iran axis of dystopia is a mystery too

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122141157#Comment_122141157

You tell me.

Why would Warren Buffet have nearly half of Berkshire Hathaway invested in one stock that relies on China for 95% of its production?

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122141179#Comment_122141179

Once again if you are so worried about Apple and Berkshire I recommend you short them while going long on China

Tell us how you get on, put your whole pension on red sort of speak

timmyntc

It is bizarre the obsession certain rereg posters have with this thread

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122142186#Comment_122142186

Werent you using the strength of brk returns as an argument against investing in china?

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122142201#Comment_122142201

You mean Horse Timmy ?

brickster69

US CPI as expected. It makes the 37th straight month above 3%, that "transitory" thing lasted a bit longer than predicted. Getting another $3 trillion of debt knocked into the economy by the end of the year should do the trick.

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1790721415244554744

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122140899#Comment_122140899

it all depends on how they draft tarrifs and apply tarrifs. Your Berkshire Hathaway point must be in relation to apple and your claim it’s Chinese now because assembly takes place there…. Yet a large % of the components are made outside china and this normally becomes very important when it comes to applying tariffs etc.

how much of the design and intellectual components of apple products are created in China?

At the end of the day china is cheap labour and apple could easily upsticks and go to somewhere like India instead. (Probably won’t because of the level of bureaucracy and admin would probably drown them in India if they were to move everything)

My point is just because apple use cheap labour doesn’t make it a Chinese product that tariffs would apply to.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122140294#Comment_122140294

Remember this is from the article YOU posted:

845,697 foreign residents in PRC according to 2020 census.

Plus 584,998 from Macau, HK and Taiwan which PRC does not regard as foreigners (provided they're ethnic Chinese) but they still need residence permits. Yes they have an immigration policy determined by race, aren't they great 🙄 (Oh and PRC nationals need permits to settle in HK and Macau even though China rules both.)

You are obsessed with this 12,000 figure which is for foreigners with permanent residence permits only. They like to keep foreign passport holders on permits which last only a few years and may be renewed but may be refused either.

I hope you are not seriously claiming that we have more than 1.4 million immigrants in Ireland?

We're also part of a common travel area (UK) and EU bloc which gives about 510 million people the right to live here without visa or permit - about 100 times our population. Comparing immigration in Ireland and China is just ridiculous and meaningless.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122143691#Comment_122143691

850,000 out of 1,425,237,000 is 0.059% of Chinas population

And are you seriously trying to tell us that China does not consider HK and Macau as Chinese (and for that matter Taiwan) what’s next you gonna count tourists too

Now looking at CSO Census of population summary results 2022 they put 87% as Irish (including dual citizens) and rest as non Irish, 13% of 5 million is 650k we easily added 150k+ in two years since to this number of non Irish

Yes the Chinese are a bunch of xenophobes, yes their population will reduce by 300 million in about a decade, and yes unless they do a complete uturn on migration it will continue to fall rapidly

brickster69

Looks like China are not reinvesting in US bonds and rolling it into other assets instead.

zerosquared

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/dow-jones-record-us-economy-inflation-rcna152551

Up and to the right

zerosquared

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economic-output-hits-2-year-high-151127554.html

Uh how can we spin this as a sign of an imminent global recession