A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138525#Comment_120138525

Salary alone would be roughly double. But this is offset by things like non-existent job security.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120136497#Comment_120136497

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120136609#Comment_120136609

The issue is that because the job market is so crazy the MNCs have to work to retain talent. What this ultimately means is people are getting promoted much faster than they otherwise would in a normal market, and so are getting higher salaries earlier than they otherwise would in a normal market.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138992#Comment_120138992

That has certainly happened over the last year or so in Tech. Also the amount of new hires had created chaos because it takes time to train/onboard new staff and the newly promoted folks may be inexperienced at managing/growing teams. Recruitment standards can slip when you hire too fast in a tight market. It would have also been difficult to find well defined work quickly enough for all the new hires. Hence the large companies are downsizing to get some breathing space and grow at a more sustainable rate. There is the problem that there may be too many people in higher positions with high salaries.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120122167#Comment_120122167

Hi, yea gladly.

The value that they have put on the bonds on their balance sheets does NOT reflect their current value. They are very much underwater. i.e. insolvent. Not bankrupt (and I know you understand the difference but for readers' benefit) but insolvent.

They don't mark to market and hence they don't realise the losses but yes they are very much underwater. Of course they can print lots more currency. And hopefully they do. As I am knee-deep in real money. Precious metals.

https://www.ft.com/content/ddc5d867-59fe-4c9b-a588-4066304318b6

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/central-banks-are-now-insolvent

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139281#Comment_120139281

Okay. The value on their books (their balance sheet) does reflect the market value - i.e. what they'd make if they sold them on the market

If they post them as collateral, then it depends on that plus other factors to gauge how much collateral they provide. Something like German Bunds provide good collateral because they are a) rated highly (German default unlikely) and b) highly liquid on the market, i.e. you'll sell them in a day without much fuss

is there something you know that the market doesn't?

(I suspect there's a notion here that sovereign debt is "insolvent" because someone thinks it's one singular large debt to one entity with one repayment date which therefore "cannot" be paid, but I sincerely hope that's not the case)

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139323#Comment_120139323

The value on the books ( balance sheet ) reflects the value paid not current value.

Secondly you have to understand what real "sovereign" debt actually is and why some of it is classed as " risk free "

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139701#Comment_120139701

Normally when people talk about sovereign paper, it's government bonds.

In this case it looks like this poster is claiming they are all pretty much "insolvent", which isn't making any sense.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139832#Comment_120139832

Well loads are insolvent due to falling bond prices of which they have bought **** loads using monopoly money. If they put the " assets " on the balance sheets at the current value then everyone would see they are, but they don't they put it down as what they paid.

It is not so much the countries who sold the bonds that are ****ed it is the ones who are sitting on it. Central banks, banks, pensions the whole shebang.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120140156#Comment_120140156

How?

Cluedo Monopoly

Interesting conversation on Brendan O'Connor re tech jobs. They said that big tech firms were stockpiling tech staff last year in case they would need them. It sounded like a lot of the new hires didn't have any work to do.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120140227#Comment_120140227

The article An Ri rua explains.But those estimated figures were from 2021 and now value of them has fallen a lot since so the problem will be worse than that.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120139323#Comment_120139323

No, the sovereign debt is not insolvent. That's not possible (if it is, I'd like to hear how).

Its what it was bought for and priced at (or could be at a given time) by an individual holding entity that makes THEM insolvent. An instrument can't be insolvent. The CBS technically are. They don't mark to market and so they maintain the fantasy, as of today, that they are solvent. They are not.

When you ask is there something I know that the markets don't, its a tired clichéd question that is asked out outliers. Like many of the non-Western Central Banks of the world, I too am a part of the 'market'. I am heavily invested in precious metals, as are they on a macro scale (hey, even Ireland has bought over 2 tonnes of the money in the past 18 months). Gold being redsignated a Tier 1 asset having some bearing on Western CBs beginning to increase their gold buying (most gold buying done by all CBs this year versus previous 65 years). The question may be is there something that other players in the 'market', outliers, know that you and many others may not? The sands are shifting. Confidence in the dollar and also euro comes from externally not just internal confidence-shoring unfortunately.

Best of luck to all.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120141316#Comment_120141316

Your own FT article articles asks "Are Central Banks going Bankrupt?" and then answers that in the first line, "No".

You claimed bonds are "rotten to the core" - that doesn't make any sense (which bonds? are they incorrectly rated?). After a very long period of low inflation, we now have high inflation, it's only natural that bond indexes have dropped in value.

I don't see any "debt crisis". Coincidentally it's same white noise from goldbugs who continually attempt to scare people into buying precious metals.

The crypto people used to use this same lark, until they sank together with the market in March 2020.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120141393#Comment_120141393

Sovereign bonds. Hence why the ECB implemented emergency powers last summer.

🤭🤭🤣

Precious metals are reality, its currency you should be far more concerned about. I defer to higher powers such as Zoltan Pozsar (Credit Suisse analyst), Alasdair McLeod (gold pumper as you are a monopoly money pumper), Ray Dalio (such a shyster) the late Scott Minerd, RIP (ex Fed, huge silver bug).

Highly possible to make mega money, and losses, in any market. Whether that be physical commodities, derivatives of commodities, crypto or bastardised currency. But you will find, quite shortly, that your 'mental map' of macro-economics is flawed, incomplete and suited a 50 year narrative that is fast running out of steam. The real world of 'stuff' is calling! The producers want their value back!! Hence the rise of the petroyuan and decline of petrodollar. No more CB fakirs working their magic (unless its alchemy at 20-40% backing 😉 ).

Ps not 'my' FT article though I have contributed elsewhere. Important to not make outlandish claims in the cut and thrust of keyboard warriorship.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120141447#Comment_120141447

But you will find, quite shortly, that your 'mental map' of macro-economics is flawed, incomplete and suited a 50 year narrative that is fast running out of steam. The real world of 'stuff' is calling! The producers want their value back!!

I stop counting how many times in the last 20 years I read that the world as we know it is about to change. It is imminent! Do this now to protect yourself and your family!

Not a single one happened. What is different this time?

What is your background to be able to predict something that no one sees currently?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120141447#Comment_120141447

Sovereign bonds. Hence why the ECB implemented emergency powers last summer.

It's what the ECB does, it responds, and enacts measures. Whether it's the pandemic or high inflation.

Why are these bonds considered the best tier 1 collateral that can be posted?

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120141520#Comment_120141520

I've just listed literally a handful who see it.

Never mind what my background is, as I don't know you from Adam. Take it or leave it.

Your eyes are firmly closed if you think the last 20 years have been equivalent. Good God.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120141914#Comment_120141914

Good god indeed. You are not the first one to claim to know the future and it is everyone else that need to wake up! Take actions now! It is the end of the world. The same wording was used at the start of this thread and by now we were supposed to have thousands of people dying of cold across Europe, starving because of the food shortage.

What is your timeline for this disaster to happen so I can setup a reminder and check if you disappear like the other posters.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120142791#Comment_120142791

I don't disappear. Take your own path. Take your information from where you feel suits your prejudices best and I will do similar.

Cycles are neither binary nor linear. If you were heavily invested in crypto and did not take profits, your sky has indeed fallen (would you not class this as a disaster? Hundreds of thousands of millenials do, across the Western world). Ditto for stocks, ditto for bonds (only starting) and will be likewise for property. Regardless of local demographics. Its a question of credit /debt. Which is what you, and others like you, refer in a trusting childlike fashion to as money. But its not.

I'll be back to remind you Deub. I'll check in here on the 22nd June. Can't be fairer than that.

screamer

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/0123/1350210-ireland-to-avoid-recession-in-2023-report-predicts/

This is good to read no one needs a recession. As I said before this blip is totally different to last time, we’re gonna be ok

Sierra Oscar

Sharp rebound in consumer confidence.

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1617405896887525376

Whether it's technically a recession or not, thinks are pretty grim right now. The cost of living is insane and every morning I seem to have a new article about a big company cutting 5 - 10% of staff.

It seems unsustainable at the moment although I do hope those articles are true that we'll something terrible.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120135782#Comment_120135782

In Fairness in a lot of cases it may well be the truth

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120142872#Comment_120142872

You will disappear, or just adjust your "predictions", seen it countless times.

When the 2008 financial crisis happened, we came perilously close to a real meltdown, it was a once-in-a-lifetime systemic crisis. An unfortunate by-product of it was that it has spawned a generation of doomsday merchants who see a crisis in every tiny piece of financial news. Like a bunch of broken clocks, they make all sorts of alarmist predictions, few if any turn out to be correct, a popular one on this forum last year was that we were all going to freeze this winter and be plunged into global starvation.

Back to reality, there will very likely be some form of recession in the future, but by current metrics and predictions there doesn't appear to a global recession on the horizon this year.

Until then, these individuals will continue to point at things, predicting doom.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120144878#Comment_120144878

This sharp rebound is defiantly not a good sign for trying to tame inflation

brickster69

The Fed's outgoing's have reached a little more than $20 billion per week. A big turnaround since interest rates have started to rise.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146409#Comment_120146409

Not “per week” but cumulative since September 2022.

For those interested by the graph, you can find some info here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563758-how-big-fed-losses-where-can-we-see-them

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120145225#Comment_120145225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120142791#Comment_120142791

I don't disappear.

The generalisations in your post, DohnJoe, point loudly to you not being a finance professional. If you are, then I have the same genuine concern for your worldview as you dramatically display re mine. I am not a finance professional; I'm simply an investor. All-in on precious metals, backed up by 3 decades of market watching and 2 level 9s in finance, plus a level 7 in tax. So each to their own, Keynesian schmucks. Let's see if our current debacle is worse than 2008. I say it is, you say its not. Tick tock, 22nd June approacheth.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147801#Comment_120147801

If you are 20 years reading about gold but didn't buy it at €250 an ozt in 2000-2002 (its €1700ish now) , well then that's a pretty stupid look. Perhaps you adore Brown's bottom.....each to their own.

Ps if you'd bought Bitcoin in 2011 (I did and sold in 2019) again, your sideline views looks pretty dense. In that case, DohnJoe could have followed that broken clock on the 1st few chimes and he wouldn't have to be trotting out tired broken clock memes and worn out Keynesian claptrap on a public forum.

The 'gold nonsense' that the Irish Central Bank bought over 2 tonnes of last year on your behalf?

.....lads, do some research on serious media please.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147823#Comment_120147823

2019? Ouch, bad year to sell crypto. After a decade on and off managed to get a big chunk of my portfolio sold in 2021 (after very, very roughly predicting that bull)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147689#Comment_120147689

Right. The bond market may be down due to inflation, but that doesn't mean "doom". Sovereign bonds are highest rated collateral that you or anyone (banks or central banks can post), after that supranational, corporates and then down the list to equities, and finally gold (although have never seen that used to collateralise modern bank activity like repo's, credit line activity, etc)

As mentioned, currently no signs of any systemic crisis or global recession (keyword: global). That could change, but right now, that's how it looks.