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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,476 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Ita certainly not the same, no. Central Banks are technically insolvent and you're worried about commercial banks....

    2008 was simply a property wheeze gone wrong, that infected other parts of the system. The bond market is THE market, all else is just a sideshow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,476 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Yes, 2/3 of dollars reside abroad and it so due to the artificial creation of the petrodollar. The rise of the petroyuan is already happening.

    The weaponisation of foreign currency reserves by USA could not have been a dumber move, playing right into the hands of Putin as a rallying cry to BRICS and to those 47-50 countries who abstained on the Ukraine UN vote, being in the sphere of influence of Russia and China.

    Months earlier, Putin had visited both Saudi and Nigeria. Then the West visited (Boris) and pleaded (Biden) with the Saudis to supply crude. And so they do. Some. They formerly burnt crude to generate electricity. Now they export that crude and have replaced it with refined product from Russia to produce their electricity.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,476 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Yes, 2/3 of dollars reside abroad and it so due to the artificial creation of the petrodollar. The rise of the petroyuan is already happening.

    The weaponisation of foreign currency reserves by USA could not have been a dumber move, playing right into the hands of Putin as a rallying cry to BRICS and to those 47-50 countries who abstained on the Ukraine UN vote, being in the sphere of influence of Russia and China.

    Months earlier, Putin had visited both Saudi and Nigeria. Then the West visited (Boris) and pleaded (Biden) with the Saudis to supply crude. And so they do. Some. They formerly burnt crude to generate electricity. Now they export that crude and have replaced it with refined product from Russia to produce their electricity.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,800 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Okay, care to explain how central banks are insolvent?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Easily solved, a bit of "Saudi has weapons of mass destruction", a few aircraft carriers and cruise missiles. Job sorted.

    All roads lead to Rome.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    HP in Canada continuing to drop. Down 17% since peaking in early 22. At this rate it might hit 20% YoY reduction if the pace accelerates over the next couple of months.


    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1615028704857698304



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,304 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    Sounds like Microsoft will be the next big tech company with a large number of layoffs tomorrow. Talk of it being around 11,000 or so.

    Big tech continues to slide.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,577 ✭✭✭quokula


    Like most other tech layoffs, this is a correction after too much hiring recently. Microsoft have hired 50,000 people in the last two years. With the layoffs they’ll still be up 40,000 employees from where they were pre-pandemic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    Would like to see the stats on that one. Amazon sure hired tones of people due to shipping more. Microsoft taking on more for Support roles ? I mean it's hardly manufacture of Xbox or other stuff.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Hopes were high that Japan would take a step into the world of positive interest rates this morning, however they decided against it and will keep on the never ending path of QE and buying government bonds.


    All roads lead to Rome.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    EUs CPIs and inflation down for the 2nd month now, it was only a matter of time before the insanely high price points through the EU economy had to crumble. January will see this continue for 3 months in a row. Its also notable that construction output within the EU has also fallen as people cant afford what construction companies are asking for. Throw in 11k people being let go from Microsoft. 2023 is going to be very bumpy.

    Post edited by fliball123 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭lmimmfn


    Most of the large MNC's were at it, it is really just market correction to pre covid, the employee counts and shareprice of these companies since before covid follow a similar trend.

    Heres the stats for microsoft:

    • Microsoft total number of employees in 2022 was 221,000, a 22.1% increase from 2021.
    • Microsoft total number of employees in 2021 was 181,000, a 11.04% increase from 2020.
    • Microsoft total number of employees in 2020 was 163,000, a 13.19% increase from 2019.
    • Microsoft total number of employees in 2019 was 144,000, a 9.92% increase from 2018.

    Cutting 5% or ~11000 still leaves the number of employees >16% higher than pre-covid levels

    If you check tech shareprices over the last 5 years you can see the prices are self correct and similar for e.g. Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet(Google).

    Outliers seem to be Intel(10% share buyback, competition from AMD) and TSMC(largely because their next process node N3E will be cheaper than initial 3nm and current chip shortage)



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,591 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Part of my install includes 20kWh of storage. My last bill was 62 units day and 1750 units night, at 7c/kwh night Fixed rate till july. But other than that, the solar array will not only cover 8-9 months of use 100%, I'll also export and get paid for that too. Possibly never having an electric bill again. Going way OT here but I didnt want to leave that comment of yours unchecked.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,591 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Lifepo4 is not the same as lithium ion. Much more stable. I've already been paid for just under 500 units by Energia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    What we need is our energy bills to reflect the big falls in energy. It's ok saying energy fell x % in November and 6.8% in December but nothing has changed because all the other items have risen in December so it will be worse still.

    These companies are very quick to raise prices when energy goes up but fall asleep when it goes down a lot.

    All roads lead to Rome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well the CPIs and inflation take all into account and not just food, energy etc (the overall costs to the consumer in the round is falling although food is still increasing by the way ) o it wont be worse prices are coming down and Q1 and Q2 will see this continue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    You are right but energy is a big part of that inflation number. Everything else apart from energy has gone up in the month but our energy bills are still the same not cheaper.

    So when those reductions are passed on to consumers and businesses, then everyone will see a massive improvement in the pocket because energy is the main driver of inflation because it effects everything. The sooner that happens the better for everyone.

    All roads lead to Rome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,211 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    No offence to the hardworking people in the warehouses but those are retail jobs not tech jobs.

    Mad that Microsoft increased their employees by over 50% since 2019. Who is making these decisions?

    Fingal County Council are certainly not competent to be making decisions about the most important piece of infrastructure on the island. They need to stick to badly designed cycle lanes and deciding on whether Mrs Murphy can have her kitchen extension.



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,059 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Microsoft have bought a lot of companies over the past few years. That would have contributed to it a bit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,304 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    I interviewed there this year, along with Meta, Stripe, Twitter, Shopify and a few local companies here in Vancouver that have all gone through layoffs recently.

    I feel like the Grim Reaper.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,304 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    They announced a 10 billion investment into it just last week. I think that is the biggest risk for tech companies employees in the next decade as well as a few more sectors.

    All roads lead to Rome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,304 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    Agreed, AI does stand to really change a lot for employers and employees. For a company like Microsoft put its cards on the table like that as well show how the larger companies in tech could be leaning.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,577 ✭✭✭quokula


    AI is potentially the next industrial revolution. It has the potential to make many jobs obsolete but also to create new ones and to increase our overall productivity and wealth as a society.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,304 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    One industry that really is on the line is haulage. Automated vehicles (taxis, trucks, trains, drones) stands to put so many people out of work.



  • Registered Users Posts: 880 ✭✭✭seamusk84


    To be fair we have to just embrace AI, the same way we embraced computer technology in the 80s and 90s.

    Remember we all thought we would be working way less in the future back in the 70s as technologies progressed….But the complete reverse occurred.

    However I see AI as really bridging that gap, along with the way we have really drove towards automation in general over the past 10 years.

    I think in the west we could see 4 day weeks and a much better work/life a balance coming to the fore over the next few years. Sure it will cost jobs in some areas but if done right the social benefits could be amazing.

    Also back on track - No sign to me of a recession and I’ve been in the multinationals for 15 years now. We massively over-hired during the pandemic and are just adjusting things to their normal levels now is all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    AI is unstoppable, we have to accept it. It’s the future, for all its pros and cons. It’s gonna happen come hell or high water, we need to get used to it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,304 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    Amazon with 18,000 more layoffs today...that is 18x the size of the company I currently work for alone.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707




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