Softening house market?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057258#Comment_119057258

again, our political institutions are still more so conservative based, most policies are more aligned with maintaining the price of assets such as property, and most assets are owned by older, more wealthier entities in our societies. funnily enough, welfare payments such as christmas bonuses etc, are mostly spent into the economy, enacting polices such as maintaining ever rising property prices extracts wealth from the economy, heavily indebting it in return...

keoclassic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057258#Comment_119057258

Oh, I don't expect any help. What I expect is for them to stop excessively helping others by paying outrageous amounts of tax payers money for hap and the buying of private housing and handing it over to social occupiers. I'd like them to increase the tax on institutional investors to the benefit of non recipients of any kind of state welfare. The ones that, pay their tax in full, pay their health insurance in full, pay their medical and dentistry in full, their travel in full, pay their own pensions, pay for thir kids welfare and schooling etc in full etc and pay it all from their own pockets with absolutely no help from the state. Ie, not the people who work but also get state subsidies because they earn less. I'd like to see them stop punishing the middle class who work hard to climb the ladder of prosperity on their own merit. We are hit from every angle possible. The ones that don't inherit anything from anyone and have to do it all themselves. There are literally 100s of thousands of us.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057354#Comment_119057354

again, only a small proportion of society claims welfare, most middle class costs come in regard rent and mortgages, our property markets have been in a state of effectively hyper inflation since we financialised are economy, particular our property markets, i.e. nothing to be doing with welfare classes, this approach is now collapsing....

James20221

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057354#Comment_119057354

I hear ya! I earn 40,000, enough to pay higher income tax but as a single man not enough to buy a home. So my choices are live at home with the parents for years to buy hours from Dublin and my job and social life or else rent for life which is over half my income and leaves me at risk in old age of being homeless.

B2021M

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056559#Comment_119056559

I think I asked you before a few times but you didn't reply.....why did we have the IMF here less than a decade ago if it's possible to just 'create' money?

porkmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057354#Comment_119057354

This thing is out of control. Literally out of control. The time to "do" anything about it passed years ago. It's just a matter of waiting to see what shape the inevitable collapse takes now, whether it's housing alone or everything into the bargain.

The middle class are, in effect, rapidly becoming reliant on social assistance and housing. The people who think this is a reliable, stable situation for the next 10, 20, 30 years need to stop sniffing urinal cakes.

"They" aren't going to do something about this spiralling situation, "they" can't do anything about it. Like most shocks and comeuppances, it's going to come from somewhere unpredictable and out of the blue.

Lap of the gods now.

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057682#Comment_119057682

find yourself a surgar daddy to move in with

This is why they say work hard in school because being at the lower end of the barrel isn't fun is it? Never has been

James20221

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057839#Comment_119057839

Im not at the lower end? 40,000 is the average wage and for my age (31) is quite high. I got well over 400 points in my leaving cert and went to UCD. The lower end is earning under 30,000

porkmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057839#Comment_119057839

The single biggest indicator of "success" in this country is whether you own your own home or not.

Inherited, bought before the corporate commodification, got one off the social welfare, however.

It has practically nothing whatsoever to do with effort or brains, it's more luck than anything.

Some 30 year old woman working on the tills in dunnes stores with their own home is far, far more likely to have a higher quality of life than some 30 year old PhD without a home.

Over time there's a possibility of catch-up, but it's some going to accrue 300/400/500k versus someone who doesn't need to, all while paying the blistering rent.

Income as a measure of inequality is nothing compared to necessary expenditure.

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057949#Comment_119057949

nothing to do with success, you need money to live, simple as that

why get a phd, why spend all those years in college unless its to earn some coin

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057850#Comment_119057850

then all you got to do is out compete them

save say 25k per year as you live at home, add that to the money you should have saved and off you go

James20221

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057993#Comment_119057993

Ive been in London gaining work experience and paying rent since 2013, no room for savings. I could now save 20,000 a year if I stayed at home, but it would mean having to move to a outer commuter town. I dont want to live in a back water in isolation. How can people see the human impact of the housing market and still be smug and cruel about it. Its virtually impossible at the moment for a single earner to buy in Dublin

porkmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057987#Comment_119057987

That's why I put "success" in inverted comma's. You can call it quality of life, means, or excess available money.

So yeah, I'd rather have a low effort-required job with a fully owned home than some vaunted education and job while without a home.

It completely flies in the face of all the "work hard" ethic that is taught from a young age. It should really be "get a home as quickly and as effiiently as possible". Don't work hard, play smart.

No dig at social housing, but in the current, and unsustainable, climate, reducing your rent from €1800 a month to like €120 a month is life changing, generationally so if you don't get lazy, to the point that it negates employment type, education and overall effort. Easy Street.

Or through inheritance or what you like. Owning a home outright, not mortgaged, is the be all, end all in Ireland. By hook or crook.

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058006#Comment_119058006

no one is smug about it, at 31 no savings, that's your problem, i didnt buy for another 5 years so move out save

those are the hard decisions we all make

what job? that's very low for a degree qualified 31 year old

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058035#Comment_119058035

trying to get social housing is a nightmare too, just in cased you missed that

porkmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058067#Comment_119058067

It probably is now. That's why I said that it's practically all down to luck.

Again, the biggest predicator of "success" in this country is whether you own your own home or not. Everything else is secondary.

The guy you're quoting above, saying that 40 odd grand is very low for a degree qualified person at 31. It's not very low at all, there are reams of jobs that require higher education that pay as much or much less with very definite low ceilings. More people are in these jobs than not. It doesn't matter why, poor choices, ill informed, or just simply that the majority of employment is lower paid than some expect.

One quick example is the civil service. Look at the pay scales, and then remember how many people work in the civil service.

James20221

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058102#Comment_119058102

This person lives in a dream world or else is a troll. Every person I know my age who is an accountant, nurse, teacher, marketing, civil servant etc, you know all the jobs graduates go to college to work at, earn around or under 40,000 in their early 30s. Thats around 7 or 8 years into a career.

James20221

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058102#Comment_119058102

If you look at the pay scales on the CSO the median income in Ireland is 38,000. 60% of individual have a net income of less than 40,000.

50% of under 35s have a degree. We have some myths in this country about pay, I mean if everyone college graduate was making 100,000 then we wouldn't have the highest level of 30s year olds living at home in the EU

James20221

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058102#Comment_119058102

Lastly I'd add class in Ireland no longer exists as it had. And hard work does not factor in to being well off or not. The divide between comfortable and not is if you where old enough to get a mortgage before the crash and the restrictions around lending

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058006#Comment_119058006

I think people need to understand that you have to reach 30 with some decent savings. You have already used up a quarter of your working life and have nothing to show for it. It is also the case that in your 20's you are willing to put up with rubbish house shares etc, that becomes harder when you are in a relationship. Also, 40k per year, after working in London for 9 years to gain experience in whatever field you are in, isn't a great return to be perfectly honest.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057949#Comment_119057949

This is such an important and misunderstood point by many. Volatility in house prices means that within normal confines of salaries (vast majority make between 30k-100k), it really makes fairly little difference what you earn when considering overall ‘wealth’. The year your bought your first house (if ever) is by far the biggest factor.

If you’re paying an extra €300k today vs 2012. That’s €600k of additional gross income (50% tax rate) to get yourself in the same spot as someone who was luckier with timing/age. Even versus 24 months ago, it’s life altering sums of ‘income’ that’s required to bridge the gap.

Its why it makes me laugh when people want to tax ‘high earners’ - as if it’s got anything to do with wealth. All about luck as you say.

porkmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059655#Comment_119059655

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect near no savings due to the rental situation the last good while. Probably the case with the guy you're quoting.

Many people, and more and more, are simply working to pay rent. They shouldn't be, but they are. That's why it has been called the "housing crisis", and not the "housing inconvenience".

If people are surprised by this kind of thing now, wait until the shocked faces later about 30 year olds, 40 year olds and 50 year olds.

"Why don't you have any savings after paying extortionate rent for your whole life??"

https://ibb.co/p0ZSp9L

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040076#Comment_119040076

Their socialist expenditure, cant be too different from ffg. Given how to the left they are on welfare spending and outrageous rate of marginal tax to fund it...

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059735#Comment_119059735

If you live in a house share and earn around 40k, it should be possible to put some money by each month. It requires a fair bit of sacrifice but it is possible.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119057735#Comment_119057735

...the involvement of the imf, and the troika, was clearly to move the blame of the crash away from the private domain, i.e. over leveraged banks, and move it towards the public domain, this has been the imf's protocol since its creation, this has occurred all over the world, wherever they have been involved, and to add insult, to impose austerity measures as a part of the process, all known to cause catastrophic social and economic outcomes....

money creation has been significantly reduced within the public domain by such processes, deficit spending etc, moving it more so towards the private domain, primarily via credit creation, therefore creating a more financialised economy....

macvin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119055826#Comment_119055826

Plenty of cheap money out there. I think you mean the easy money is not there like it was in the noughties.

Avant currently have a 30 year fixed rate (moveable if you move house) at 2.5% (90% ltv). That's about €400 per month for every 100k borrowed. That is what new buyers should be looking at.

400k mortgage would be €1580 a month and it will never change from that.

In the noughties they said rates would not rise too much and then within a couple of years the mortgage rate was 5%. - That would cost €2150/month in above example and it as it creeps past 3.5% that's where prices will start dropping.

Here's another example - if rates went to 5% (ECB circa 2.75% - can easily happen), the €1580 mortgage payment would allow you a €290,000 mortgage.

So avant @ 2.5% 400k mortgage is 1580/month

Potential future rate of 5% - a 290k mortgage is 1580/month

In my book, interest rates are THE MOST IMPORTANT aspect of buying a home.

2.5% fixed for 25 or 30 years is phenomenal value and if I were a broker I would all but insist that current buyers take that option

porkmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059788#Comment_119059788

True, but a lot of people won't be on those wages until later in life. It might sound crazy to some, but it is what it is.

Rent should in no way, shape or form be extracting such huge percentages of people's money. I wasn't exaggerating when I said there is a large cohort of people working to pay rent. And with no choice to move elsewhere.

Take out the physical building itself, and what you've got is a situation uncomfortably close to chattel slavery. One person collecting the lion's share of another person's efforts. Because they're essentially trapped.

And the wild thing is that it isn't just very low earners, it'l has spread up and up. Wild!

These are the days we're living in.

macvin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056428#Comment_119056428

Possibly you are setting your standards too high?

For a single person a 2 bed or large 1 bed apartment is ideal. Plenty of apartments under €300k - Citywest, stepaside, clondalkin, chapelizod, carrickmines

A 90% 25 year fixed rate mortgage of 270k would cost €1200 a month

If prices dropped 20% but mortgage rates went to 5%, the mortgage payment would be €1170, yet people will say prices were "more affordable" whereas in reality including interest you could be paying more over the term of the mortgage once the rate goes to 5.25%. And if you think that can't happen, just look at the USA where average long term rate is now 5.6% - up from 2.5% just 12 months ago!

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059906#Comment_119059906

US isn't comparable as most mortgages are fixed for their entirety. They have ARM products available now, but most people still tend to go with the fixed. Didn't one of the Spanish lenders come in here offering fixed mortgages a couple of years ago?

keoclassic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059906#Comment_119059906

Do you even remember what happened last time. Jesus like! If prices drop say 20% as you say, but now post has a partner and are expecting their first child, needs to sell and buy elsewhere, he or she is in trouble. Some lads here just think that if feel you deserve a house after putting yourself through college and getting a good paying job that yo have delusions of grandeur ffs. A few Greedy bucks around here !