NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025102#Comment_119025102

This notion they arent transfer friendly isnt standing upto scrutiny....several sinn fein tds were elected on 2nd and 3rd counts last time,with outside local popularities/issues,their transfers were every bit as comparable as other big two parties??

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024886#Comment_119024886

No, there isn't a fair chance of that unless their vote increases hugely as well.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025055#Comment_119025055

Their vote management in south has tradionally been a massive issue...... it caught em out badly in a diastorous local elections in 2019,where naivity and inability to react to redrawn constituencies cost em like 80 councillors

Like its a great result,looks like.they have it mastered in the 6 counties,they need sit down and learn what lessons needed and distribute this info to local level across free state....no reason we cant hope for change here too

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025521#Comment_119025521

FG won 76 on 36% in GE 2011....shinners presently on 32 to 34%.....surely the prospect of being within single digits of overall majority with similar level vote management as today,isnt unrealistic?

Dazler97

Voting counts stops at 11pm and will resume in the morning, I'm afraid incase DUP break in over night and rob or give themselves votes, this is looking good for a united Ireland

bricksNDmortar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025582#Comment_119025582

ML has said no reason now we can’t have a BP within 5 years think she’s right not sure we win it first time around but after first that’s the tree shook

FrancieBrady

Can Colum Eastwood survive this? Can the SDLP survive? What a shambles for them.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024522#Comment_119024522

Few years back whenever FG ran two candidates in this constituency they used to be tearing down each others posters. Quite funny

votecounts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025035#Comment_119025035

Will you admit that you were wrong in saying that SF would lose support and seats, it's an easy thing to do.

FrancieBrady

Mark Carruthers crucifying Sammy Wilson now, is a thing of beauty.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025452#Comment_119025452

You've already voted to accept the outcome of a border poll when you voted for the good Friday agreement

briany

DUP are going to have to compromise on their stupid opposition to the NI Protocol if they ever want to be the largest party in Northern Ireland again. It's not so much that Irish Nationalism is growing to any great extent in the North, but younger people and more politically-moderate Unionists have to be be feeling sorely alienated by some of the DUP's blinkered stances.

So, that party can either choose to get with the program or stick their head in the sand. If they choose the latter, it won't matter. The electoral realities will remain the same. Sorry.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025600#Comment_119025600

To let sf back in derry,after that all was alleged to gone on around anderson and co....is some blunder.....sf should have been dead there a generation

Dazler97

I just wonder what will happen if sein féin do get in, I've been following the elections all day on bbc news and i just hope that it won't annoy the unionists or cause more trouble, i know its not worded well but hopefully yous get me

votecounts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025916#Comment_119025916

If loyalists do act up, then they should treated accordingly by the PSNI, a few slaps would do them the world of good especially the likes of Bryson and Allister. Unionists should be reminded that is not the 1970s anymore, both communities count.

As for Unionists getting annoyed, what doesn't get them annoyed? They've just realised in the last week that SF want a United Ireland and a Language Act scares them. I have my doubts that they are very few actual democrats on the Unionist side, let prove me wrong with little Jeff swanning back to Westminister

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025916#Comment_119025916

Ah god love them. Maybe the Shinners should ignore democracy for fear of offending unionists

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025916#Comment_119025916

They've no justification to be annoyed or to cause trouble. What can they be annoyed about? That they lost the election? That's really a 'them' problem. Throwing a tantrum might feel good in the short term, but it will only hasten their demise. If NI Unionism wants to remain relevant, it's parties will need to figure out how to stop stepping on rakes.

StevenToast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025916#Comment_119025916

"Get in"??......they already are in...thats how power sharing works......

Sinn Fein will be the largest party in the 6 counties and the 26 counties(next election).....

United Ireland by the end of the decade....

All brought in by the DUP deciding brexit was the way to go.......a colossal misread which will ultimately cost them their very reason for existing!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025916#Comment_119025916

Boris johnson and the erg,will launch some breed of a thinktank on the protocol,which will be of such importance that donaldson will need to stay in westminister and thus abstain/resign from stormont to avoid nominating MON as first minister....but continue on as dup leader

Theres a face-saving way out of the corner dup have painted emselves,if they want it....and use next few years to neuter the tuv rise.....they may even peel back the losses to alliance,but if alliance do well in powersharing,may be difficult

cj maxx

Absolutely fantastic results from the election. Now the pressure is on Michelle and her MA'S to follow on on promises.

road_high

Fantastic to see the greens wiped out of the assembly. Now need the mirror image in Kildare st to get rid of them all.

Dazler97

I know they have gotten in, i was just asking what will happen although i know their is power sharing it doesn't feel like it to be honest

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024930#Comment_119024930

You claim nationalists didn't like FF, FG , Labour campaigning.

Well, if that were true, that tells us all we need to know about how a UI is impossible because breaking news, whether you like it or not, they represent between them the bulk of the Irish political scene.

The fact is people in the Republic are too different to nationalists in the north. We vote on bread and butter. Constitutional status, the north does not come in to it.

That's why there'll never be a UI in my opinion.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023812#Comment_119023812

People in the North ignored them as well.

The SDLP had nothing positive to say and came across as only defined by others.

Any party like that, regardless of context is always in trouble.

I suspect that they are incapable of change, unwilling and will continue to peter out.

That's all on the SDLP and the low quality leadership.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026050#Comment_119026050

I don't see a United Ireland by the end of the decade unless something changes to the point that staying in the UK becomes untenable for a majority of its voters. The shock of a hard Brexit on an already economically depressed region could have been that thing, but the NIP has helped insulate NI from those negative effects.

I don't believe that Sinn Fein are set to become the largest party on their UI policy so much as it is on their pro-NIP policy and an apparent drop off for DUP support as the latter stubbornly and blinkeredly opposes something that the majority of NI people seem to be in favour of.

If Sinn Fein turn around now and start going on in earnest about a border poll again, they'll really just be making a rod for their own back. They have to continue to play the long game, show why they're the fittest party to lead NI by addressing everyday economic and social issues, and basically hope that a UI is something that a majority of people in NI gradually come around to.

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026722#Comment_119026722

Shinners don't even mention a United Ireland anymore, "New Ireland" is as far as they'll go, suitable vague.

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026628#Comment_119026628

If I may dare, you are looking at this the wrong way. A large swathe of republicans/nationalists up north look at the southern party's of FF/FG as abandoning them for the most part during the troubles. (They might identify as Irish, but that doesn't mean they identify as FF/FGers)

People in the South aren't different to us in the north, you only need to look at how Irish people, whether Northern or Southern interact in person, be it at sporting event, on holidays or likewise.

I do not claim to speak for every nationalist/republican, but from my own perspective I was really annoyed at FG/FF and Labour reps out pictured canvassing alongside SDLP reps, simply because they (FG/FF LAB) reps ignored us for decades until it looks inevitable that their power sharing reign is about to end.

Michael Martin, Neal Richmond etc weren't on our doorsteps canvassing for SDLP, they were canvassing for people not to vote Sinn Fein.

People up here aren't stupid, I believe that they got their answer. Hopefully a mirrored result in the next elections in the 26 counties.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026628#Comment_119026628

Tbf if someone from opposite end of country come to my door canvassing for a local canditdate,id be inclined to tell rev up,and eff too

Whole thing come across as a party,which hadnt enough members to canvass for itself and subbed the hard work of canvassing out

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026785#Comment_119026785

United Ireland has its own page on their website.

https://www.sinnfein.ie/irish-unity

Sinn Féin is the United Ireland party. This is our core political objective.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026785#Comment_119026785

That's wrong Dyr.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026785#Comment_119026785

This is another issue. There seems to be an assumption that an ordinary Irish person like me would be prepared to give up my flag, my anthem, accept some demented 'democratic' formula on representation, join the commonwealth and all this craic to appease some angry unionists.

Digging a hole for themselves on that one.

bricksNDmortar

This makes beautiful reading

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026859#Comment_119026859

Where have they said this??

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026628#Comment_119026628

There will be a united Ireland when there is a broad consensus both north & south, but only then. And with the increase in political polarisation up north over the last couple of decades, that seems to be further away than ever.

As for this election, the outcome seems clear enough. SF have kept their vote and will have bragging rights over their nemesis. But that's all it will amount to. Expect months of tedious wrangling, followed by reversion to direct rule. The 'border poll' issue which SF kept mum about during the campaign will increasingly dominate their rhetoric. But the chances of it happening, never mind being successful are slim. So in effect, they've just rearranged the deckchairs in the NI Assembly.

Perhaps in time, and after a few more elections, voters will tire of this and support will seep steadily towards parties not focused on either a UI or the Queen.

Ben Lowry gave quite a fair summary of the current political state of unionism this morning on RTE radio.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026812#Comment_119026812

"I do not claim to speak for every nationalist/republican, but from my own perspective I was really annoyed at FG/FG and Labour reps out pictured canvassing alongside SDLP reps, simply because they (FG/FF LAB) reps ignored us for decades until it looks inevitable that their power sharing reign is about to end.

Michael Martin, Neal Richmond etc weren't on our doorsteps canvassing for SDLP, they were canvassing for people not to vote Sinn Fein."

Eh.. you do realise that this just maybe, because Sinn Féin are the political wing of what was not long ago a violent Republican organisation. You have heard I presume of the strategy of 'an armalite in one hand and a ballot box in the other'? An organisation that also considered the Republic's government as not legitimate and who murdered members of our defence forces and Gardaí.

We don't forget those things down south and it's why the vote in SF in the Republic is self limiting as there are still many who lived through those times and know what they were about. It's also explains why southern parties like FF or FG or Lab are much more comfortable supporting the SDLP or Alliance etc.

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026927#Comment_119026927

Can you please explain to me how a political party "kept mum" about something that was a major part of the very manifesto for the election they campaigned on?

You wouldn't be trying to claim that Irish unification is some kind of sly political undertone they possess would you, because that would just expose your political naivety, or else you're on a mission to try and wind up folk.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026927#Comment_119026927

Why would you say the 'chance of it happening are slim'?

Is that wishful thinking Furze?

I witnessed the UK attempt to shaft the DUP hours before the election, I wouldn't be ruling anything out.

*I wouldn't trust a word out of Ben Lowry's mouth,. he's a hardline Unionist masquerading as an editor.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026969#Comment_119026969

It's called not scaring the horses.. but once they're across the line, we'll never hear the end of it.

Which is fine, but if ye want a border poll, then start working to persuade those across all parts of the political spectrum that it's a worthwhile idea to vote for a UI.

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026986#Comment_119026986

Hang on, are you now saying that the "kept mum" about something that is a key part of their very reason to exist as a political party (they're republican, right?) and a key component of their 2022 manifesto was actually incorrect?

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026972#Comment_119026972

Because no one in their right mind Francie, would conduct a border poll, unless the result is a conclusive resounding result, one way or the other.

If it were to be openly contentious, it'd be a divisive disaster for everyone on our island.

And it's clear that it would be greatly contentious both up north and down south, in the present an immediate future.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026877#Comment_119026877

Where does Alliance fit into this scenario? Up to the individual voter which bloc they fall into?

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026996#Comment_119026996

This is tedious. Of course a 'border poll' and a UI are part of the SF manifesto. If you'd been around this site for more than a few minutes, you'd know that it's often said that a UI is effectively the primary one and only policy of SF. And they have a perfect right to have that as a policy. So do southern parties but it's not a priority issue to the same extent.

As regards this election though, SF were careful not to over emphasise the border poll question as such rhetoric was liable to drive votes towards the harder line unionist parties.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027006#Comment_119027006

You could say the same thing about any election in the north.

The island is already divided btw and those affected by that will not stay quiet just because 'Jack's alright'.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027016#Comment_119027016

Would driving people towards more hardline unionists not have strengthened em more by splitting the unionist vote??

(In reality,they did right thing and stayed outta being dragged into the protocol mess)

SF have spent last 12 months,spending them millions they gotton, holding utd ireland conferences (many also attended by eastwood),including the letter being leaked from them to saoradh 48 hours before the polls.....

the notion they been keeping stump,and secret their intentions on a utd ireland is a poor attempt to explain away/distract from extraordinary vote management by the esbtablishment

shirrup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026964#Comment_119026964

"We don't forget those things down south and it's why the vote in SF in the Republic is self limiting as there are still many who lived through those times and know what they were about. It's also explains why southern parties like FF or FG or Lab are much more comfortable supporting the SDLP or Alliance etc."

I assume your taking the proverbial?

The people of the South don't forget things in a hurry, yet they literally have been voting in political partys that emerged from the civil war for a century?

FF members literally turned up to the Irish parliament with "revolvers in their pockets".

You seriously need to reeducate yourself.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027058#Comment_119027058

The 'shinner ceiling' again?

The Shinners don't own a UI, we constitutionally aspire to it as a people.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027058#Comment_119027058

FF less than a geneation after bankrupting the state,have a cabinet member from that time as taoiseach,along side a massive mandate.....

But but the free state electorate have long memories🤔👏👏

bricksNDmortar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027014#Comment_119027014

Well alliance won’t nail colours to the mast either way but Naomi long said if endorsed she would support a call for a border poll to settle the constitutional matter.

votecounts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026628#Comment_119026628

What Nationalists don't like is that FF,FG and Labour come up North and only attack 1 party, never a bad word about the DUP, UUP, TUV, etc. They don't even really care about the SDLP, they just won't want to harm SF and then will bend over backwards to help Unionists and their friends in RTE will give Unionism soft interviews, not calling them what they are, homophobes and sectarian bigots who simply don't want a tadgh about the place.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027230#Comment_119027230

Don't follow NI politics closely, but my impression is most Alliance members/voters would ultimately fall into the Protestant/Unionist camp, however liberal & moderate, and if it came to the sectarian headcount of a border poll, they would revert to their tribal allegiance.