NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118981454#Comment_118981454

Donaldson sandwiching himself between Allister and Bryson seems a huge gamble.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118981649#Comment_118981649

It is obvious from the title of the thread and the tone of the OP that the OP believed at the time the thread was opened that the Assembly elections are a rerun of the GFA referendum.

That has been so out of touch from the course of the campaign itself, where even Sinn Fein have had to drop their focus on a border poll to address bread and butter issues. Quite a difference from the expectation of the OP.

FrancieBrady

Looknig like a Pro Protocol, therefore pro GFA vote. A victory for democracy.

https://twitter.com/dmcbfs/status/1519798261883748353

blanch152

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-remain-on-course-to-land-first-minister-position-in-northern-ireland-according-to-latest-poll-41599121.html

Interesting way to measure bigotry and belligerence in this poll.

"Nine percent of TUV supporters won’t transfer — the second highest of the eight Stormont parties.

Only Sinn Féin was higher — 17% of its voters won’t give another party a preference."

Is anyone surprised that the two most extreme sectarian parties poll like this?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991618#Comment_118991618

The real surprise is your refusal to accept it is a divided society.

You were told that Alliance is a repository for borrowed votes in that divided society but you insisted it was a real change. Down 2 points. They are moving back to the acceptable Unionism of Doug Beattie as I told you they would.

The SDLP only a point ahead of the TUV, not a huge surprise either.

Still all to play for though. I still fancy the DUP will scare enough to prevail.

CrookedJack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991618#Comment_118991618

I'm not sure it's really fair to equate the TUV and Sinn Fein in quite that way. Sinn Fein is a broader church than the TUV. It has extreme members and more moderate members, the TUV is really an extreme splinter group.

A better comparison would be at least between Sinn Fein and the DUP plus TUV combined - I suspect the numbers would be more equivalent too.

Furze99

Hopefully NI voters have a bit of sense & cop on and vote Alliance.

Give the divide and conquer parties a good kick in the arse.

FrancieBrady

Survation have a radically different poll:

https://twitter.com/dmcbfs/status/1520073611469590528

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991701#Comment_118991701

That doesn't change my point. The most bigoted and belligerent of voters in the North are the ones that don't transfer their vote. Sinn Fein top that poll, followed by TUV. Nobody is surprised by the bigotry of a large cohort of their voters.

Thankfully Alliance is a third way, because they don't have anything like the same undercurrent of bigotry and belligerence of SF and TUV.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991824#Comment_118991824

Look at my point, it is the percentage of their voters that don't transfer anywhere else. That is a clear indicator of bigotry and belligerence. Yes, because Sinn Fein is the bigger party they will, in absolute terms have more moderate members, but that also means it will have more bigoted members.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991618#Comment_118991618

If you did a similar poll down south you’d find maybe not the same numbers but you’d find a percentage of voters who vote for a party, that won’t vote for any other, they’ll vote however many candidates are for that party and go home.

And also why would a voter for a unionist party give a transfer to a party that wants to end that union and vice versa ? You can’t say that’s a surprise surely.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118995048#Comment_118995048

So if you don't transfer you are a bigot? Don't you praise the fact a party doesn't get transfers here.

*Spin incoming.😁

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118995090#Comment_118995090

Not for the First time I get the impression blanch doesn't know much about the North and tactical voting.

CrookedJack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118995059#Comment_118995059

I get what you're saying - that the percentage who would not transfer are bigoted because they wouldn't in any situation consider voting outside their sect. There a couple of fallacies there, it would only be true if it was a hypothetical question measuring whether they'd transfer their vote to another party that had the same policies but from a different sect. but that's not the case, there are specific parties with specific and mostly differing policy positions, but that's not reflected in the poll. we don't know the ratio of those unwilling to transfer are doing it because of policy position versus those who are bigots. Could be all one one side or none at all or any value in between.

As regards my Point about Sinn Fein you missed it I think. It's not just that because they are a bigger party they'll have more moderate members in absolute numbers, they'll also have a higher proportion of moderates as, un like the TUV they are not an extreme splinter group of another party.

That is not to suggest that Sinn Fein as a whole are moderates, or not belligerent/bigoted, just that you can't really equate them to the TUV alone.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118995090#Comment_118995090

Of course you will, and they reflect the intransigence of the support for such parties.

My point is that voters for SF and TUV are the most intransigent voters in Northern Ireland, giving support to the contention that they are the most belligerent and bigoted.

There are many options on both sides, either from their own community, or from the middle, that is no excuse.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118995762#Comment_118995762

The figures say different. At 17%, the number of Sinn Fein voters unwilling to transfer is far higher than any other party. That reflects a certain way of thinking, a way of "othering" those who disagree, of one-sided bigotry, of a community that isn't reaching out. It is very sad.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118995123#Comment_118995123

What are you talking about? Nonsense, as always.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996065#Comment_118996065

You glory in the fact that SF don't get transfers here in the south.

Good bigotry - bad bigotry.

Same views you have about 'terrorism' transferred over to voting.

Hypocrisy in other words, not to mention complete denial of how failed northern Ireland is as a society because of the partition that destroyed it.

Maybe if you got off the patronising high horse you ride and addressed these realities of a broken and divided society that cannot and will never be able to fix itself?

CrookedJack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996061#Comment_118996061

It might mean that, but it might mean other things, the poll data doesn't really give enough to go on. At most what it is saying it that there is a maximum of 17% of Sinn Fein voters who would not transfer for bigoted/belligerent reasons. Not sure if that is positive or negative, but certainly higher than other parties.

I think your personal bias might be leading you towards this inference though, the data could be looked on in other lights. For example it might indicate that broadly speaking the various unionist parties are seen as very similar in platform and approach by their voters, and so they're more willing to transfer votes between them, even in the extreme ends. Whereas there might be more diversity of policy on the nationalist side, hence voters less likely to transfer.

Or another interpretation could be that unionist voters are more bigoted and belligerent and are willing to transfer votes to any other unionist party so long as it keeps a nationalist from getting elected. That they would prefer a unionist who they disagreed with than a nationalist. Where as Sinn Fein voters are voting to get their party in, rather than keep a group out. that they believe in their party's policies more than the group identity.

I'm not saying these inferences are true, so don't feel the need to dispute them. I'm also not saying yours is false, we can't tell that either. My point is we can't tell the motivations from these kind of polls, and inferring them is really more revealing about our own biases than those of the voters.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996664#Comment_118996664

It's staring anyone who cares to look at it in the face

that Unionists are loudly campaigning for what you say: Vote Unionist all the way or you get SF'.

CrookedJack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996672#Comment_118996672

You might be right but that's not what I'm saying. My point is that these polls are being used to legitimise the analysts personal biases. Blanch see's them as proof Sinn Fein are bigots, you see them as proof that Unionists are. They prove neither.

Or, more likely both. but maybe that's just my own bias.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996718#Comment_118996718

I don't need polls to tell me that there are bigots on both sides.

The point is, Unionist political parties are showing clearly in their pre election rhetoric that they are bigots. There is nothing similar happening on the other side that I am seeing or hearing.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996718#Comment_118996718

My point is that both are bigots - SF and TUV. I am applying the conclusion to both sides.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996348#Comment_118996348

The reason that Sinn Fein neither give not get transfers in the same. Their policies, politicians and supporters are exclusionary nationalists who won't transfer to anyone else and are recognised as such by voters of mainstream parties who won't transfer to them.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119001916#Comment_119001916

Haha blithely ignoring all the other parties who exclude. Fantasy stuff again from the High moral ground.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119002049#Comment_119002049

Nope, nobody has challenged my conclusion in relation to TUV being belligerent and exclusionary. They don't have cheerleaders on here, in the way that the exclusionary belligerent nationalists of Sinn Fein do.

Happy to hold any high ground above the likes of SF and TUV.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119002066#Comment_119002066

But like FG happy to applaud and cosset the DUP because that might fend off SF.

Happy to see your bias and hypocrisy being called out here by more than me.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119002146#Comment_119002146

Nope, looking forward to the Assembly results when both the DUP and SF lose votes. That is what the tolerant people of NI want to see, an end to both parties.

Wouldn't it be great if the Alliance, UUP, SDLP, Greens and PBP held a majority of the seats? A rejection of the sectarian politics of DUP, SF and TUV. That is what I want to see.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119005061#Comment_119005061

I'm a democrat blanch, whosoever the electorate chose I will accept.

Will you though?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119005065#Comment_119005065

I am not part of the electorate in the North. It is not on me to accept.

I can comment on whether I like it or not, just as I comment on whether I like Putin or Trump winning elections.