Ireland's national debt 'one of the highest in the world' on a per capita basis

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121472033#Comment_121472033

We will be stuck with interest rates which suit the German economy anyway, not our own economy.

The same thing happened during the Celtic tiger years - Germany was not "booming" and kept interest rates low. Our economy got "boomier and boomier" as Bertie would have said, and we really needed interest rates to go up in '03/ '04 / '05 , but no, our interest rates had to suit Germany and we had the mother of all crashes a few years later.

techman1

While proportions vary from time time time, currently a bit less than half of Irish long-term government bonds are held by Irish-resident institutions and individuals, and a little more than half are held by non-residents.

The bonds are freely transferrable, so the government has no control over who holds them.

But the irish financial institutions are required by the regulator to hold a high proportion of "safe assets" like government bonds , guess what they are not so safe in an inflationary environment as the bank's bond portfolio has fallen in value due to rising interest rates and falling bond valuations. That is why savers are getting such bad deposit interest rates. In effect the regulator has made the banks forced buyers of government bonds, great for the ntma which explains why half the irish government bond issuance is held by irish financial institutions. In other words if you hold an irish deposit account ,you are lending a big proportion of your deposit to the irish government at low interest rates.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121475011#Comment_121475011

Maybe not. I used to think there would eventually be a rift in the EU as the heavily indebted PIIGS would want lower interest rates than the nordic countries. But now that Germany`s economy is in difficulty, perhaps we will all go down together.

realitykeeper

The US national debt went up a trillion dollars in the three months to November. It is now 34 trillion. It took hundreds of years from the time of George Washington to the Reagan Presidency to breach the one trillion mark. Now, a trillion dollars it is a quarterly rise.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121475011#Comment_121475011

As moronic as the president of Spain shtick is...I tend to agree with you on Germany dictating interest rates to a large degree at least.

Kermit.de.frog

Ireland's debt burden is not that big. The UK's government debt to GDP is north of 100% whereas Ireland's is only around 40%.

Even if you use GNP Ireland's government debt to national output is around 60%.

I know people like quoting "230bn" but it's not that big, easily serviceable and the low interest rate on Irish government borrowing (which it doesn't have to do much of at the moment) reflects that.

Geuze

Here are some alternative ways to measure the size of the public debt, as used by the NTMA:

Charles Babbage

The GG interest to GG Revenue is interesting. Ireland is about 1% more than than best in class, and that 1% of government revenue to spend would be nice, but not game changing. How we are almost 8% better than the UK, or 6% better than Italy and those percentages would be noticeable.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121481249#Comment_121481249

Official data is accurate when it is convenient. Normally it published because it is required but how often do people tell the truth when they don't want to? More often than institutions would be my guess.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121480929#Comment_121480929

We all know our revenues / GDP etc are skewed because of the multinationals here etc, but if we are so well off, how come we got so many handouts from the EU up until recently, while the UK for example was the second biggest contributor to the EU? Not surprised they left.

Bear in mind , "Economists say Ireland 'siphoning' EU corporate tax revenues in 'parasitic' policy. Three leading economists – including France's Thomas Picketty and former IMF official Ashoka Mody – have accused Ireland of “siphoning” other countries' tax revenues and operating a “parasitic” corporation tax policy."

https://www.independent.ie/business/world/economists-say-ireland-siphoning-eu-corporate-tax-revenues-in-parasitic-policy/a1314263992.html#:~:text=World%20Business-,Economists%20say%20Ireland%20'siphoning'%20EU%20corporate,tax%20revenues%20in%20'parasitic'%20policy&text=Three%20leading%20economists%20%E2%80%93%20including%20France's,%E2%80%9Cparasitic%E2%80%9D%20corporation%20tax%20policy.

How sustainable are our tax revenues if that is the case? And what happens our debt then , still one of the biggest in the world per head of population?

Larbre34

Corporation Tax is still only the third highest revenue cohort and less than 25% of the total.

Ireland's national debt profile is mainly at ultra-low interest rates and with long maturities. So neither fact is especially problematic, in a fast expanding domestic economy.

If it did become a problem, it wouldn't be in isolation in the international scene, and there are far more precarious sovereign debt profiles to scare the market, than Ireland's. A clear demonstration of this is the comparatively low rates we can still achieve and the huge oversubscription the NTMA still receives for its auction calls.

In other words, don't sweat it. If there are threats to this Country, national debt is FAR down the list.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121483084#Comment_121483084

These same economists where saying these companies where not paying their tax for years.

Now they are and they are still not happy. They are not happy because they despise tax competition in the first place and don't like that all the money they wanted paid is getting paid in Ireland.

They'll never be happy.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121484859#Comment_121484859

They are not happy because we are STILL depriving other countries of their tax revenue. " Economists say Ireland 'siphoning' EU corporate tax revenues in 'parasitic' policy." You have to admit, they do have a point, and it is not sustainable. Especially when we do not pull our weight when it comes to NATO, defence spending etc....and much of Europe's drug trade comes through Irish waters, and we cannot patrol those effectively, we are known as the weakest link.

https://www.independent.ie/business/world/economists-say-ireland-siphoning-eu-corporate-tax-revenues-in-parasitic-policy/a1314263992.html

Hawkeye123

If the ECB pivots later this year, which it will probably do (with extreme reluctance), Ireland`s national debt will start to grow again, bringing with it the promise of more inflation. If however, the ECB postpones cutting interest rates for the next 154 years, Ireland could potentially achieve debt free status by the end of that period, going on the present annemic pace at which we are paying down our debt.

twinytwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486448#Comment_121486448

You do realise Ireland is not in NATO?

You also realise that even with a 10 fold increase in spending it would still be impossible to patrol all our coastline? The drugs would still get in.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121920593#Comment_121920593

Of course Ireland is not in NATO, we sheltered behind other countries like UK and USA when it came to the cold war etc, and when Russian jets whizz by our west coast with their transponders turned off we phone up the RAF to intercept them / moniter them.

If we made some half ars*d attempt to patrol our coastline instead of the navy ships being tied up in Co. Cork the whole time with their crew at home atein' their mammies spuds each day, at least it may be some deterrent to some of the drugs getting in to Europe.

L.Ball

We have the best GDP in europe though.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121920850#Comment_121920850

This strikes me as a bizarre argument. Other maritime countries, with much larger navies than ours, do not centre their drug enforcement operations around their navies or around naval patrols. This is simply not a task for which navies are well-adapted; it's a police matter and intelligence, not shipping tonnage, is the key to addressing it.