How can we integrate Unionism into a possible United Ireland?

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118552728#Comment_118552728

I'll agree with you to an extent on that, old IRA violence against protestants and civilians has largely been whitewashed from history including the murders and disappearances of over 100 protestants men, women and teenage boys in Cork, we only ever hear about the ten or so people disappeared by the PIRA, although for many of them in Cork their British identity simply died out as they no longer had any logical reason to call themselves British.

Esel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118551497#Comment_118551497

Can I ask this you this question first, are you even from Ireland?

I'd be interested in your own answer to this question. Are you even from Ireland yourself?

Zebra3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118542237#Comment_118542237

The thing that matters most to wealthy people is staying wealthy.

blackbox

As things stand, a united Ireland would be a disaster.

It might be possible if the North were to become independent of the UK and establish itself independently for a number of years. At that point there could possibly be a decision to merge two independent countries.

Jumping from being part of UK straight to being part of the ROI would be ridiculous and disastrous.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118552740#Comment_118552740

Grand. Whatever. I give up. Some people just refuse to see just how bad this could be for the Republic, or see any price as being acceptable.

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553713#Comment_118553713

Where is your proof or evidence that you are basing this information on?

Earlier I provided the first and only rigorous academic study of the economic impact of unification, In this study that is seen as the as the first and only major examination of the potential economic effects of an all-island economy, the ‘Modeling Irish Unification’ report — undertaken by Canadian consultancy KLC and University of British Columbia academics, who have carried out similar reports on German and Korean unification — suggests “significant long-term improvement” in the economies of both the North and the Republic resulting from unification.

Seems to me posters like yourself are just scaremongering based on little to no evidence to further your partitionist agenda.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553738#Comment_118553738

The study doesn't look at the cost.

Best case scenario in a static world economy is 35bn over 8 years. That's a 10% increase in GDP over 8 years while our population would increase by 30% over night.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553738#Comment_118553738

Your study was addressed, and you avoided answering the questions directed to you about that study. Also.. it was a single study compared to a wide range of opinions by economic experts over the last decade. You keep asking where I get my info from, which I answered earlier, but again, you ignored the fact that such information is commonly available. The state of the Northern economy and society is no secret, and any expectation that both would be brought into line with the Republic would be expensive.

I asked you for a range of benefits... while also asking to show how the benefits outweighed the negatives... and you deflected. You didn't answer my questions, except to provide one or two small benefits, and referred to the study each time, rather than answer the questions posed to you.

You claim I'm scaremongering, whereas I say that you're downplaying the costs to the Republic, and pushing a Republican agenda that doesn't care what it costs to people, just so you can say you have a united Ireland.

And since you refuse to answer those points, this becomes a circular argument, because you seem to believe that a united Ireland shouldn't be justified. So, I'll be bowing out of this argument.. as usual, Republicans seek to argue emotional connections over the practical consequences for those involved.

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553788#Comment_118553788

You never provided any evidence or studies, I'd like you to provide some of the studies that have absolutely convinced you of the disastrous consequences of unification, link some studies like I did so I can criticise your study as you are criticising the study I linked when it was asked of me. I have heard numerous different opinions going around the media, some say it will be very beneficial, some say it won't, the most qualified and reputable people though generally say that it will be beneficial although the study Karl Hubner done is the only study that went into extreme detail on the matter using the greatest experts from around the world who have experience doing studies exactly like this, you seem so quick to dismiss them so please link the studies which you find so reputable and accurate that have completely convinced you that unification would ruin us.

So you are saying that the most rigorous academic study by FAR by some of the greatest experts in the world on the impact of unification didn't even bother looking at the costs when they came to the conclusion that it would be very beneficial to the whole island? They just left that part out did they? If they had have remembered then they would have came to the conclusion that unification would be disastrous? If only they had have remembered to factor that in they could have cleared all that up for us, oh well.

Speaking at the event of the study, Michael Burke, economic consultant and former Senior International Economist at Citibank in London, discussed the impact of a unified Ireland.

"We hear lots of reasons for or against Irish unification but very few of them focus on the economic debate", he said.

Adding: "In my view - and I think it is substantiated by this very voluminous research - Irish unification is a growth story, is a success story, is a prosperity story, and that's why I very much welcome the report".

The study was certainly taken seriously by experts in the field, yet Klaz from boards claims the study is a load of crap that doesn't even factor in the cost.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553876#Comment_118553876

You obviously haven't read it !

It only looks at benefits and that benefit is 35bn over the first 8 years.

Will that cover harmonization of SW and PS pay?

Galwayguy35

The more moderate prodestants would integrate into a UI but the people who vote for the DUP and TUV would never accept it because they even hate the fact that they have to share the 6 counties with Nationalists/Catholics.

But then on the other hand what are they going to do about it, the loyalist paramilitaries even back in the day were only successful because the Brits were in collusion with them passing on information to them.

These days they are nothing more than illiterate cokeheads making their living from drug dealing.

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553939#Comment_118553939

It does factor in the costs, it takes everything into account and comes to the conclusion that unification would be very beneficial to the whole island.

Do you really believe the most rigorous academic study by far on unification taken by the greatest experts in the field from around the world didn't bother taking the costs into account when they talked about all these benefits?

Can you link some articles criticising the study? Can you quote some qualified people who claimed the study is wrong and nonsense? I have quoted numerous experts in the field who overwhelmingly praised the study, except for the experts Klaz and JH on boards who claim it's a load of crap and that they forget to factor in the costs.

This article seems very one sided, can you please link some of the studies that have convinced you so much that unification would be disastrous for our economy, I have provided studies when asked to reinforce my opinion, can you please link some of the studies that have convinced you so much so that I can criticise them as you are criticising the studies I posted?

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553991#Comment_118553991

And they would reinvigorated no doubt at the mere hint of the prospect of unification. This country in going along relatively well but has huge challenges in terms of housing, health and social problems, why would we divert taxes to unification with very little tangible gain for the Southern electorate?

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554001#Comment_118554001

I'm not saying the study is wrong. 35bn over 8 years is the benefit the paper claims and I'm not disputing it at all.

But if you read the study you'll see its scope is only the benefits. The costs of fixing NI to get this benefit is not part of the paper.

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554013#Comment_118554013

Yes it is, it goes into extensive detail about those matters like Northern Ireland adopting the euro.

It's the most rigorous academic study by far on the economic impact of unification taken by the greatest experts on the subject from around the world, they didn't leave much out.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554005#Comment_118554005

Look despite what SF are saying any border poll is years if not decades away so I don't think its anything that we need concern ourselves about any time soon.

I'm in favour of a UI and would vote for it but for now I'm happy enough that its costing the Brits £15 billion a year to keep the lights on in the North.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554031#Comment_118554031

But it only looks at the benefits of these changes not the cost.

If I'm mistaken, could you give the page number for the cost of increasing SW and PS pay to our higher levels?

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554048#Comment_118554048

This is true but it is often used as falsified misinformation, as I said earlier in the thread. The largest three elements that underpin the north’s subventions are pensions, Northern Ireland’s share of the UK’s national debt and defence spending, most academics agree that most of the money involved in these transfers would not apply in the event of a united Ireland, the real cost is no more than 3 billion, still a fair chunk but nowhere near the exaggerated costs some would have you believe.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554139#Comment_118554139

Covering just the subvention means PS pay and SW would be lower in the North.

Are you ok with that?

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554057#Comment_118554057

It goes into extremely extensive research into the amount of taxes that all of Ireland would have to pay, which is what they would fall under.

No there isn't pages and pages going on about social welfare payments for god's sake, the study more than factors in the necessary taxes.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554048#Comment_118554048

Will anything change in 20 or 30 yrs time? The people who remember the worst of the troubles will be dying off leaving only those who have experienced peace and an island with no border. The division of this island will become even less of an issue with younger generations who know only the ease of travel and absence of conflict.

You are happy for the UK to pay £15b a year to keep the lights on, presumably you will also be happy when you and your kids have to take over that burden. Just to put the figure you provided into perspective, that is the equivalent of €3750 at todays exchange rate per yr for every man woman and child in the South. Of course not all 5m here pay income tax so the figure will be higher on those that do.

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554197#Comment_118554197

Again you have dodged my questions and are still providing misinformation which I have cleared up numerous times on this thread, the largest three elements that underpin the north’s subventions are pensions, Northern Ireland’s share of the UK’s national debt and defence spending, which wouldn't apply in a United Ireland.

Here's an article to clear this up for you as you still seem confused, the study I posted also clears this up.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/what-would-be-the-economic-costs-and-benefits-of-a-united-ireland-1.4557508?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fwhat-would-be-the-economic-costs-and-benefits-of-a-united-ireland-1.4557508

Mr Bumble

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118551684#Comment_118551684

You use "Southern Ireland", "Southern Irish", The South a lot for someone Irish. Very odd. Telling I would say.

A dog with a hammer up it;s arse can see how hard it will be to "integrate" unionists.

This is not a great revelation.

Your only reason you have for not having a UI seems to be "because it's hard".

By definition, someone born on the island of Ireland is Irish. Just as someone born on the island of Great Britain, is British.

As a state of mind, Britishness is a concept shared by Irish, English, Scottish and Welsh people.

Unless you are invested in maintaining the partition which has cost thousands of lives and shackled the whole island economically for most of the last 100 years, you cannot ignore the potential a unified island presents. Huge inward investment from America, the EU and an ongoing committment from HM Gov to cover ongling costs of pensions/legacy financing? What's not to like.

Ireland's economy was unnaturally flattened by being an isolated island on the fringe of Europe dominated by an overbearing neighbour. The UK repressed the southern economy with a trade war. Ireland's links to European trade came almost exclusively through the UK landbridge.

The UK has now swapped positions and because of Brexit, is now the isolated outlier, economically disconnected from the rest of Europe

When Ireland joined the EEC, the economy began to diverge from the UK, 60% post war to less than 10% now and falling. Post-Brexit, even more divergence down south via 50 new EU direct routes (small s there Dav010).

The very sigificant divergent surge in NI post-Brexit under the NIP mirrors this.

Each step away from the UK Ireland takes, the economy booms.

You have very little confidence in the ability of Ireland as a nation or a people.

This is the mistake Johnson and the Tories made. They have been overwhelmed diplomatically by Ireland.

If you are "Southern Irish" and not Jamie Bryson on manouvres or somesuch, have a bit of confidence lad.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554189#Comment_118554189

What do you mean about factoring in the taxes?

You're not claiming the 35bn over 8 years is a net benefit? The study doesn't claim that at all!

It's an extensive study but it's scope is only on the benefits, the cost of PS pay, SW and pension harmonization is not part of the study at all.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554349#Comment_118554349

I use “Southern Irish” to distinguish between people who live in this country, ROI and people who live in a separate and distinct jurisdiction, Northern Ireland. I have confidence in Southern Irish people not wanting to impose their will on a million other people whilst both live in relative harmony, with no conflict and with the UK picking up the bill for the North. I don’t look at this with romantic eyes or backwards on history, I look at it pragmatically in the here and now, what will unification mean to me? It will mean trouble and expense for no tangible benefit to me or anyone I know. Would I vote for higher taxes and social unrest in any other election or referendum? Of course not.

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554379#Comment_118554379

This is simply not true at all, the scope is not only only on the benefits, just because the conclusion drew a beneficial outcome does not mean it only focuses on the benefits.

Please tell me how the most extensive study by far into the economic impact of unification taken by some of the greatest experts in the field from around the world could be a fair study and avoid criticism if they only talked about the benefits and ignored all the negatives.

You seem confused so let me clear this up for you, the study went into detail about numerous positive and negative effects of unification factoring in everything relevant to the economic outcome (as much as any study possibly can) they listed many positives and negatives throughout the study but at the end they came to the conclusion that unification would be very economically beneficial for the whole of Ireland.

Just because they came to a beneficial conclusion does not mean the study only focuses on the positives.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554466#Comment_118554466

So what would be our yearly spend on PS pay after unification? What pages cover that aspect of unification?

ujjjjjjjjj

Things are peaceful now and have been largely so for sometime. I lived through the Troubles (in the South, heaven knows how people did in the North itself) and can't think of anything worse right now than a push for a united Ireland in terms of real risk to peace on this island.

Pushing for a united Ireland or defending a unionist state isn't worth one more life or shooting or bombing or kneecapping or distraught family. Any move to a 32 county Ireland involves a huge risk with the current makeup in the North.

Anyone advocating for a United Ireland is either idealistic and very young and has never engaged with the reality of the troubles & the horrendous acts from both sides, or a diehard republican who is willing to risk peace for the pipedream of a 32 county ireland or just utter fantasists.

Enjoy peace and just leave alone. It is too fresh.

We currently have a workable, peaceful status quo. I can't think of one good reason to risk changing it. All I see is potentially serious problems for an aspirational gain based on feelings and a republican pipedream and too many black and tan songs.

Things in time may change and in several generations we may see radical changes in population makeup and identity, we may not, but really now isn't the time and even the obvious increase in united Ireland rhetoric since Brexit is actually making things worse as our Unionist friends suddenly feel pressure which is never a good thing.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554390#Comment_118554390

Far too many romantic eyes on this one....

Harryd225

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554647#Comment_118554647

I may have romantic eyes but I still provided studies and opinions from experts around the world that a United Ireland would be very economically beneficial to the whole of Ireland.

You don't seem to deny that that's likely what will happen, all I can tell from your previous post is that the only reason you don't want a United Ireland is because you are absolutely terrified of some riotous behaviour from loyalists, that might be enough to stop a small, cowardly, fragile minority in the 26 counties from voting for it but the majority of people in the 26 counties won't let threats of violence from a tiny minority of hooligans to influence their decision in a referendum.