2021 NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round Thread

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Saturday 22nd January

9.30pm

(4) Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) @ (1) Tennessee Titans (12-5)

1.15am

(6) San Francisco 49ers (10-7) @ (1) Green Bay Packers (13-4)

Sunday 23rd January

8pm

(4) Los Angeles Rams (12-5) @ (2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)

11.30pm

(3) Buffalo Bills (11-6) @ (2) Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Tbf 4 cracking games. I'd only be halfway confident in the Chiefs winning, I wouldn't want to predict the other 3.

I'd imagine most eyes will be on the Saturday night game, considering the historical aspect and the current goings on. I do think that Aaron Rodgers will be under the most pressure of any remaining QB left. His legacy, rightly or wrongly, will be judged on games exactly like these. No. 1 seed, coming off a bye and has a fairly loaded roster. 1 Superbowl return has to be very disappointing for him considering his talent, but tbf he did have McCarthy has a HC for most of his career. Jimmy G will be under a fair bit of pressure too. I do quite like him as an ex-Patriot, but he faded badly last week vs Cowboys. The Cowboys should never have been within a TD of them and a large part of that was down to Jimmy G's horrendous pick. Only the Cowboys play-calling bailed them out - from losing and it took the attention completely off them post-game.

And apologies to Paulie21 for starting the thread - you're slacking though (pac)!!

I hope the Buffalo Williams go all the way.

standardg60

Think the Titans and the Packers will both win comfortably enough.

Sunday's games should be crackers though and could go either way for me.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Probably worth noting that the Rams are on a short week and have to travel cross country.

Also worth noting that in the past 10 years the #1 seed has lost in the divisional round only 4 times out of 20 games - Baltimore '19, Dallas '16, Denver '12 and Packers '11.

And only a further 4 teams (out of 18) have lost coming off a bye in the playoffs (the old #2 seed) in the same timeframe - Pittsburgh '17, Kansas City '16, Denver '14 and Panthers '13.

Over that period the #1 seed gave you an 80% win probability and the bye gave you a 79% win probability. Bodes well for the Titans and Packers.

paulie21

Saturday 9.30pm

Bengals @ Titans

Saturday Night 1.15am

49ers @ Packers

Sunday 8pm

Rams @ Buccaneers

Sunday 11.30pm

Bills @ Chiefs

collybyrne

4-2 for the playoffs, 174-104 for the season coming in:

Bengals @ Titans

49ers @ Packers

Rams @ Buccaneers

Bills @ Chiefs

Think this is the first time I've picked against the Chiefs all year but that demolition of the Pats was something special. There's a possibility that was their Superbowl and they might struggle to back it up, but if that's the new baseline for them I think they can take the Chiefs on the road.

Honestly I feel like any game could go either way here with the Packers probably being the strongest favourites. But we all know how flaky they can be once playoff time rolls around. Looking forward to a cracking weekend of football.

Paleface

6 - 0 for the playoffs, 180 - 98 overall.

Bengals @ Titans

49ers @ Packers

Rams @ Buccaneers

Bills @ Chiefs

Going with 4 home wins although there is bound to be one upset. The Rams are good enough to beat the Buccs but I'm not willing to bet against Tom at home in a knockout game.

Optimus Caesar

6-0 for the playoffs. Didn't bother with regular season.

Bengals @ Titans

49ers @ Packers

Rams @ Buccaneers

Bills @ Chiefs

As a Rams fan I can't back against them and I think they match up well against the Bucs.

Titans are 1 seed and have Henry back... but how many snaps will they give him?

I fancy the 49ers but I don't trust Jimmy G whereas Rodgers is Rodgers so as much as I want to I can't go against the Pack at home.

Bills/Chiefs should be a great game. Pity its on so late. Just backing Mahomes to get it done but it really could go either way.

Itssoeasy

5-1 in the playoffs

Bengals @ Titans 

49ers @ Packers 

Rams @ Buccaneers 

Bills @ Chiefs

I just think the titans with Derick Henry having an extra week it might be a bit too much, but saying that burrow and chase are some duo.

The packers at home is the reason why I picked them to win. It’s meant to be good old fashioned cold weather playoff weather.

having seen the bucs up close last week has been leaning towards them. Brady is a wizard.

this last one was the hardest one to pick because unlike the cowboys who beat bad teams which causes the hype, the bills put a beating on a bill Belichick coached team who aren’t a bad team. It wasn’t the score line it was the manner in which it was done.

Foxtrol

6-0 from last weekend after life got in the way of me completing the regular season picks. Tight group of games this week, should be a lot of fun.

Bengals @ Titans

Bengals did great to get this far, though I do not have much faith in the Titans I am leaning towards the more rested team and superior coaching. That Titans DL should be able to put some pressure on Burrow while on the other side I don't rate the Bengal's DL regarding their run defense with Henry potentially back - especially if Jones and Brown are good to go and they cant stack the box with bodies.

49ers @ Packers

I sound like a broken record from last week but surprised to see so many writing off the 49ers with a comfortable loss (analysts, bookies, few here, and a lot of confidence of an easy win from a quick lurk in the Packers thread). 49ers are a completely different team than the one the Packers faced at the start of the season where Rodgers drove the field for a last second FG win.

Might be my red glasses but the only position group I see the Packers being significantly better than the 49ers is at QB (CB would also be that way if Alexander was fully fit, he looks trending to play post a shoulder injury but still hasn't practiced in full and if he plays will be expected to tackle the likes of Deebo and Kittle in Baltic weather).

Packers are coming off rest but I do question how ready they might be for the intensity of this game - since the Packers last faced a playoff team the 49ers have faced 4 of them, the only one of that group that isn't in the Divisional round is the Cowboys who they knocked out last week. Out of those 4 games, the 9ers won 3 and lost the other by 3 points after completely dominating the first half. If the Packers are undercooked they could be in a lot of trouble. The weather will be talked up as a negative for 49ers but if they are more intense it could swing the other way (most of the 49ers stars grew up or played several years in similar cold).

QB is obviously the most important position which is why I understand the Packers being favourites but I'd say the potential for a 'comfortable win' is about the same likelihood for either team. I don't think that is how the game will go though, 49ers to hold off a late Rodgers push to squeak through, with Garoppolo limiting or being made limit his mistakes, through a run game focus.

Rams @ Buccaneers

Cardinals didn't test the Rams injured secondary at all and I feel Bucs will have a plan to - while avoiding their superstars on defense. No faith in Stafford avoiding stupid plays when he is pushed to keep up with the Bucs and their run game won't have near the success they did last week and McVay will be forced to move away from it.

Bills @ Chiefs

Hopefully this game will be all we hope for with these QBs. High scoring back and forth game but think Bills are too high coming off their easy win, while Chiefs have the experience in these late season playoff games.

eagle eye

Love the Bengals and I'm shouting fir them in the playoffs but hard to see the Titans losing after a bye week. Same applies to the Packers coming in fresh against the 49ers.

Which Matt Stafford turns up this weekend? That'll go a long way to deciding that game. I pick clutch Brady to pull it out, like he's done so many times, if it's a close one.

Bills were impressive last weekend but so were the Chiefs. That's the most difficult game to call for me.

paulie21

4-2

Bengals

Packers

Bucs

Chiefs

adrian522

For me this is the best sports weekend of the year, 4 great matchups, the best 8 teams in the league.

Cincinnati @ Tennessee

I think the Titans have been underrated all year and I think they will have too much for the bengals, they will run the ball, slow down the game, get after the QB on the other side against a poor O-line. It's possible that Burrow pulls this out but I think the Bengals won the one they had to win and everything is a bonus from here, Vrabel to take away chase and force burrow to go elsewhere. I'd say Titans will progress here.

San Francisco @ Green Bay

I find this one hard to call. I think it will be close, I don't agree that Green Bay will win this easily. I was surprised to see how easy some GB fans think this will be. I think its the worst possible match up for them. I think SF are built for this type of game, they will run the ball well, bleed the clock, hope Garoppolo will make a few throws on 3rd down and be generally efficient on offense. On the other side of the ball 49ers will rush 4, play zone and try to slow down GB and make them go on long drives. SF will need to shut down the run game to have a chance here.

I think it will be fairly low scoring and may come down to the last drive, but it could really go either way. If Garoppolo throws his usual pick its hard to see a SF win, if not it may come down to a special teams play (both teams have terrible special teams) or a fumble. I'll pick SF but not with much conviction.

LA Rams @ Tampa Bay

Hard to go against Brady but I like the Rams in this spot. Tampa have too many injuries for my liking and if Ramsey shadows Evans all day it could be a long day for Brady, especially if Wirfs is out. Brady can manage a pass rush with quick passes etc but I feel they are vulnerable.

Buffalo @ Kansas City

This should be a cracker, incredibly hard to call. Buffalo were so good last week but have been so up and down this year. If they reproduce what they did last week they could easily win. KC are still turning the ball over too much but when they get rolling are so difficult to stop. I've been back and forth on this but I land on Kansas city, just because of home field, big game experience and really think Mahomes can get it done when the chips are down, but I think both teams score 30+ and it may come down to who gets the ball last.

Overall 4 great games and only really one where I'm confident in my pick, it should be a great weekend of football and feck it, I can catch up on sleep during the week.

threeball

Got 6 out of 6 last weekend but could easily go 0 from 4 this week. All games are super competitive.

The most clearcut should be Titans v Bengals with the Titans benefiting from learning what else they're good at without Henry. Bringing him back into the fold should only open their options up further. The Burrow, Chase, Mixon triangle is formidable but probably will fall short this week.

Packers v 49ers could be super tight. The 49ers run game is ideal for winter football in Greenbay and the Packers are poor against the run. The Packers have way more potential on chunk plays and the best QB around so I think they get it done.

Rams v Buccs is so tough to call. It could come down to how long it takes Stafford to establish himself. If they're relying on a 4th quarter blitz to strip the game from the Buccs I think they'll come up short. If they get in the groove early they have the weapons to take down the wounded Buccs. Hard to bet against Brady in post season though. 35 post season wins vs 1. Buccs for me.

Bills vs Chiefs. This time last week I had the Chiefs nailed on to reach the superbowl but last week the Bills were impressive against a good patriots outfit. Josh Allen is playing out of his skin and the entire team have shook off that mid season slump. Chiefs are starting games really slowly too. If that happens tomorrow I think the Bills could be too far up the road to catch. Hesitant vote for the Bills.

boccers

A lot of discussion about the 49ers run game but the Packers run game is also excellent. 2 RBs with over 100 yards from scrimmage this year. AJ Dillon is made for winter games.

adrian522

They do but the 49ers run defense is also a strength. You are right though if Green Bay can run the ball it makes a huge difference, keeps them out of 3rd and long and neutralises the 49ers pass rush.

In week 3 a big problem for SF was giving up too much on the ground, resulting in not being able to get the pass rush going.

I don't thin the weather will have much of an impact to be honest, cold without wind doesn't really impact the pass game too much, both teams will be fine with the weather thats forecast.

Hopefully Shanahan is a bit more aggressive on 4th down tonight, field goals won't get it done tonight.

standardg60

Just for entertainment i've had a bet on the Titans covering the handicap at a surprising -4, wasn't impressed with the Bengals at all last week and think they will struggle.

Itssoeasy

Well that’s a terrible start for Tennessee.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118518969#Comment_118518969

On the double. 3 and out on their own 19 with Henry losing yards. If the bengals OLine can step up a bit and give Burrow time they could be in with a big shout.

threeball

Bengals have zero edge protection

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118518839#Comment_118518839

Problem in week 3 was even if they stayed with the run they had Sermon starting at RB (a healthy inactive these days) and Juice was the 3rd down back (no other RB left). Add to that Deebo also hadn't started to be used in the running game. Mitchell and Deebo are a complete different proposition and the reemergence of Aiyuk since week 3 and Jennings being a much better option than Sanu should mean it is riskier to stack boxes.

Agree on the Packers - they can run but the 49ers have been able to hold the run game of teams with their front 7. Cowboys, Rams, and Titans are seen as good or better running teams and over the last month they've limited each of their top rushers to 31, 43, and 31, respectively (obviously game flow plays a part in that). Problem is though if they can't do that and have to bring down safeties then Rodgers will absolutely kill them.

HerrKapitan

This game is over. 5 sacks to 1 and Bengals are still leading. I expect Bengals to pull away in 3rd and 4th for a comfortable win.

Mr. Guappa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519415#Comment_118519415

I don't know which way it will go. Burrow has taken a lot of hits, and on the other side Henry tends to wear teams down. Think i might lean toward Tennessee.

Itssoeasy

Not exactly a barn burner of a first half was it ? Especially given the talent on both teams and int was said the bengals Oline wasn’t great but Jesus it’s not ever half good.

Mr. Guappa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519446#Comment_118519446

Yeah they really need to improve the OL in the off season... they have a franchise QB, now protect him.

Itssoeasy

TD bengals.

Foxtrol

Bengals getting the run going is bad news. Burrow had been making bad sacks worse in the first half but running will help that.

Do Titans go away from the run soon? If they dont get points this drive and Bengals score again they mightn't have a choice. Both of their star WRs look healthy, they should be sprinkling them in more

Mr. Guappa

That's a killer after the long run.

Itssoeasy

Haha after the long break out run the titans give it right back.

threeball

Massive, massive mistake by Tannehill. That's just destroyed a promising drive and his second bad turnover. He never seems to be able to pull out of a set play when things go south

Itssoeasy

After a burrows INT and then an amazing throw the titans and bengals are tied at 16-16 with one quarter to go.

Itssoeasy

The Bengals are going to have use some draft picks on their OLine in the upcoming draft. You can’t have your franchise QB be sacked seven times in a playoff game.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519603#Comment_118519603

Don't care who wins it at this stage as long as it doesn't go to OT. This has been like watching paint dry.

adrian522

awful play calls on 3rd and 4th down there.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519644#Comment_118519644

Yeah not sure why the believed that would work.

Itssoeasy

That’s number 8.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519644#Comment_118519644

The whole game is bad call after bad call. 8 sacks on Burrow and they still refuse the seal the edges with TE's. You have chase and Higgins going down field. You don't need Uzameh etc. plus it would open up run opportunity or play action for Mixon. Idiotic coaching.

Mr. Guappa

Seems like they are getting to Burrow on every 3rd down.

threeball

If they keep going like this their franchise QB will be retiring in 2025. Crazy to allow him take that much risk.

HerrKapitan

Deserved

collybyrne

What a play from Apple to get his hand in there. Step up McPherson.......

Itssoeasy

INT titans and chase with a great catch to get within FG range. KC and buffalo shouldn’t be that worried on this performance. Neither team seems to want to win this game.

threeball

Titans blow another season. How can you sack the QB 8 times and stop that many 3rd downs yet be so ineffective in offense that you don't take advantage. Pathetic showing. Only AJ Brown can be happy with his contribution.

Itssoeasy

How do you sack a QB nine **** times and still lose. That will hurt for a while.

HerrKapitan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519716#Comment_118519716

That's true. It was 9 sacks. Tannehill is the weak link. But its too late. They are the Waterford of the NFL. Missed their chance in the sun.

standardg60

Cannot fathom why the Titans were nonchalantly letting the clock run down on their final possession there when still deep in their own half.

Just placed more pressure to make a big throw. Tannehill had a mare, nine sacks by your defense and still unable to deliver. weird game.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Tannehill has to be done in Tennessee after that. I can't imagine Mike Vrabel will have any confidence in him to lead them to a Superbowl. AJ Brown and JJ as receivers with Henry taking most of the D's attention and he did sweet f all.

Henry never got going for whatever reason, whether it was rustiness, bad o-line play, a bad scheme or just down to the Bengals D I'm not really sure, but it was disappointing.

Burrow and Chase are ridiculous.

McPherson looks incredible too. Looked rock solid on the approach to the final kick and is 100% in the playoffs so far.

And as mentioned above numerous times, Bengals need an o-line. They were lucky Burrow wasn't injured tonight.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519723#Comment_118519723

Tannehill is never going to win them a divisional, never mind a super bowl but he's only part of the problem. The calls from the sideline are septic. Its run Henry, run Henry, run Henry. You have Aj Brown and Julio Jones downfield and you barely use them. Julio is the same player but he can still catch and did the job when they targeted him. I dont see them getting any further than this point ever with the offensive scheme they play.

adrian522

49ers starting CB is out, never thought we'd be relying on him in the divisonal round but here we are. Dontae Johnson starts, expect Rodgers to target him relentlessly.

Packers left tackle Bakhtiari also out which could end up being significant.

threeball

It's gonna be a long night for the 9ers

Chardee MacDennis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519815#Comment_118519815

pretty awful so far