Omicron Origins

WTF...

Im not typically into conspiracy theories. Having said that I’m happy to believe without specific evidence that the most likely origin of covid was an inadvertent release from The Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Omicron appears to be more transmissible but less virulent than previous strains. Given these characteristics it’s possible omicron will ultimately burn itself out and put an end to the covid pandemic.

Is it possible the omicron variant was created and released by the Chinese Government or some other entity in an attempt to put an end to Covid?

What about the other 1000 variants? Were they created by China too?

ohnonotgmail

viruses mutate. no outside influence is required to do that.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058226166/omicron-origins

congratulations on not having a clue about how viruses mutant into different variants

well done you !!!

touts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058226166/omicron-origins

Can you imagine the discussion in that meeting.

"I have the solution that will finally end the Pandemic and save millions of lives"

"Excellent. Now let's make sure none of us get any credit for that"

No. I can't imagine it either. But hey you do you.

WTF...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426581#Comment_118426581

I'm not familiar with 1000 more variants.

Do you mean mutations?

WTF...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426591#Comment_118426591

Absolutely, but the level of mutation in omicron is strange.

It has 50 mutations, 36 of which are in the spike. Other variants have had a max of up to 12 in this area.

ohnonotgmail

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426773#Comment_118426773

is that strange for viruses in general?

WTF...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426688#Comment_118426688

Releasing any variant of a virus would be a massive violation of human rights irrespective of motive. I cant imagine any entity would admit to it.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426773#Comment_118426773

its not strange at all when you consider the most likely possible origin.

WTF...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426829#Comment_118426829

You mean like reverse zoonosis or an immunocompromised person?

WTF...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426784#Comment_118426784

I would have thought that level of mutation would take time and should have been detected sooner.

Its possible it mutated naturally in a country that isnt performing sequencing. But given how contagious it is its strange that it wasn't identified before all 50 mutations were present.

One theory is that Molnupiravir caused the mutations. It works by increasing viral mutation rate until the virus can no longer replicate. However I dont know if it has been prescribed in South Africa?

ohnonotgmail

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118427420#Comment_118427420

you are assuming it originated in south africa. it was first discovered there but it doesn't mean it originated there. it actually originated in the netherlands. south africa discovered it because they were doing genome sequencing on the virus.

https://theswaddle.com/omicron-variant-did-not-originate-in-south-africa-it-was-detected-there-the-difference-matters/

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118427420#Comment_118427420

Okay, but note how you are starting with your speculated premise being true and working backwards from there.

Let's start properly, what direct evidence do you have to support your theory? (rather than pure appeal to motive)

silliussoddius

First tue virus was leaked and now the cure had been leaked, I can’t keep up.

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426773#Comment_118426773

There are a few posters who have far, far better knowledge re: mutation and such than I and a few actual scientists that post here with some great info.

My own take as a totally unqualified in the field pleb is:

Viruses tend to mutate over time to increased infectivety and less virulence. In simple terms the aim of the virus is to infect a host and spread. To ensure its continued existence it needs to balance infectivity and actual impact upon the host.

A dead host is of no use to the virus. In the arms race between the virus, our immune systems and treatments and continued spread towards endemic infection?

It's likely in my wholly unqualified but widely read opinion. That Covid will move towards being highly infectious but less virulent. This is a consequence of the biological aim of a virus, and the adaptation of our immune systems and treatment options.

I don't think Omicron is the variant that does that, it may well take another few years before it becomes a seasonal virus. Even at that? It won't mean the danger from Covid is over, it will likely follow a similar path to fly with dangerous pandemic variants emerging alá the pandemic flu strains.

It's easy to say we are going to have to learn to live with Covid but, we are. It's the only real path out of our current pandemic.

It may mean mask wearing, particularly if you are Ill, be it just a sniffle. It's one of the tools against respiratory illness that I think Asia leads the way in. Other mitigations may well continue too but, I think other HEPA filtration, hygiene and hands, face space that we are looking towards yearly vaccines akin to flu and learning to be a little more considerate of personal space.

WTF...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118427851#Comment_118427851

Yes, its a hypothesis. An alternative way of approaching an issue that cant be fully explained with all the evidence to hand.

Thats why I proposed it as a question and not a statement of fact.

There are many more likely and probable hypotheses for how omicron came about but this is after all the conspiracy theory forum and I'm just exploring a theory. There's lots of good work being done by virologists to identify its origins but it looks like they're still a bit stumped.

I've picked out two bits from the paper here.

The Omicron (B.1.1.529) SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) identified in Southern Africa in late November 2021 is the product of extensive evolution within an infection context that has so far left no obvious traces of intermediate forms since it diverged from the B.1.1 lineage (presumably at some time in mid to late 2020).

and...

Given the manifest viability of Omicron there is a pressing need to understand how and why it accumulated so many mutations that, on their own at least, are apparently either selectively neutral or maladaptive. The sheer number of mutations in Spike and the genetic distance between Omicron and its nearest known SARS-CoV-2 relatives implies that the Omicron progenitor accumulated its unprecedented number of mutations during an extensive time period of undetected replication. 

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118428899#Comment_118428899

Yes, its a hypothesis. An alternative way of approaching an issue that cant be fully explained with all the evidence to hand.

but in order to present a "hypothesis" you need to present what you are basing your hypothesis upon.

hypotheses are not fiction, they are an attempt to explain unusual phenomena based on the narrow set of evidence available.

There are already 3 good hypotheses out there as to the origin of omicron:

The zoonosis origin, though to be unlikely as no animal genetic material is seen in the genome.

The "critical spread" theory where the variant thread has been mutating without discovery for some time, which would mean the jump to omicron isnt at all unusual, its just that the previous strains were not detected due to lack of observation. This theory is also seen as unlikely as it would be expected that pervious strains would have been more transmissible than say delta, and would have been discovered sooner

The immunocompromised HIV person, which is probably the best theory, where the virus stayed in a HIV positive person for so long, without killing the person, and continuously mutating over a long period of time.

there is nowhere, and i repeat, nowhere, where there is a suggestion that omicron was released from the wuhan lab. There is no basis of evidence for that hypothesis at all... therefore its simply a musing on your part... nothing more than a work of fiction.

so when you are asked "what evidence do you base your hypothesis on" its i snot good enough for you to dismiss this question by claiming that a hypothesis can be based on nothing.

WTF...

so when you are asked "what evidence do you base your hypothesis on" its i snot good enough for you to dismiss this question by claiming that a hypothesis can be based on nothing.

Absolutely it can. To quote Merriam Webster: In scientific reasoning, a hypothesis is an assumption made before any research has been completed for the sake of testing. A theory on the other hand is a principle set to explain phenomena already supported by data.

The immunocompromised HIV person, which is probably the best theory, where the virus stayed in a HIV positive person for so long, without killing the person, and continuously mutating over a long period of time.

Where is the evidence for this theory?

According to Christian Drosten virus variants that elude the immune system do develop in immunocompromised people, but they come with a host of other changes that make them less able to transmit from person to person. Typically they have very low fitness out in the real world. That’s because the mutations allowing a virus to survive in one individual over time may be very different from those needed to best spread from one person to the next.

there is nowhere, and i repeat, nowhere, where there is a suggestion that omicron was released from the wuhan lab.

Lots of scientists have suggested it. I think you're confusing suggestion with evidence.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118432626#Comment_118432626

Which scientists have suggested Omicron came from a lab?

WTF...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118432864#Comment_118432864

Apologies, I misread sydthebeat. I thought he/she was referring to the original 2019 covid strain as I never suggested that omicron was released from the lab in Wuhan. There’s too much focus on that lab and transmission rates are too low in China to ensure it spreads quickly around the world.

Again this is just a conspiracy theory proposed by me as a bit of an indulgence. Isnt that what this forum is for? If I really thought it was likely or had evidence I’d be on the covid or science forums!

sydthebeat

No that's not what this forum is for.

There is a forum already here for 'creative writing' , when people discuss making up stories.

Your "indulgence" would be better suited there.

Also, scientific hypotheses is defined as:

scientific hypothesis, an idea that proposes a tentative explanation about a phenomenon or a narrow set of phenomena observed in the natural world. The two primary features of a scientific hypothesis are falsifiability and testability, which are reflected in an “If…then” statement summarizing the idea and in the ability to be supported or refuted through observation and experimentation

So theses are not simply musings of fiction.

I order for you to say "if the variant came from wuhan, then......"

And you need to be able to extrapolate with real world evidence.

For example, under the "falsifiability" premise, I can say "if the variant came from wuhan, then the first recordings of it will be in China close to the point of origin"

This is false, therefore an example of how it didn't come from a wuhan lab.

What testability do you have to explain why you think it did?

The floors open to you here now.... Don't disappoint

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453586#Comment_118453586

Ah no worries. Everyone seems to have a different take on the forum. At least you've prefaced yours as a very speculative hypothesis.

WTF...

This is false, therefore an example of how it didn't come from a wuhan lab. 

What testability do you have to explain why you think it did?

I’ve clarified in the previous post that I dont think the omicron variant came from Wuhan.

No that's not what this forum is for.

Is that the official line from Boards? If so I’m happy to comply.

…on an aside is there any way to insert quotation marks for specific points without having to quote an entire post?

sydthebeat

No that's not what this forum is for.

Is that the official line from Boards? If so I’m happy to comply.

Its in the forum charter, youre suppose to discuss "genuine topics of merit" (of which works of fiction does not comply) and you are supposed to discuss topics with substance (which the "omicron from the wuhan lab" theory lacks in spades)

This forum is not for satire.

Yes, we ironically mention lizard-men a lot in here, but this forum is for genuine discussion on topics of merit. Balance levity with substance dammit.

I’ve clarified in the previous post that I dont think the omicron variant came from Wuhan.

so why have you asked this then??

is it possible the omicron variant was created and released by the Chinese Government

…on an aside is there any way to insert quotation marks for specific points without having to quote an entire post?

i simply copy and past the text i want to quote from the original post, then use the quote tool to show that its a quotation

WTF...

Its in the forum charter, youre suppose to discuss "genuine topics of merit" (of which works of fiction does not comply) and you are supposed to discuss topics with substance (which the "omicron from the wuhan lab" theory lacks in spades)

Genuine topics of merit is a subjective term. When I ask if omicron could have been released by the Chinese government or another entity I'm essentially asking is it possible? Would they have the ability and motivation to do so?

If I was a Chinese citizen living in China and I heard a rumor about something called the Tiananmen square massacre I'd believe it to be a work of fiction. I'd likely be convinced it lacks substance and consider it a conspiracy theory.

I do believe its likely original virus was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2019. Not maliciously but accidentally through poor containment practices, inadequate staff health monitoring etc.

If the Chinese government or another entity subsequently engineered and released an attenuated but more transmissible version of covid to hasten the end of the pandemic it not likely they would create it in or release it from Wuhan.

Its in the forum charter, youre suppose to discuss "genuine topics of merit" (of which works of fiction does not comply) and you are supposed to discuss topics with substance (which the "omicron from the wuhan lab" theory lacks in spades)

congratulations on not having a clue about how viruses mutant into different variants, well done you !!!

The forum charter also states: "Address the topic, not the poster"........and "The goal here is open-minded, open-ended conversation, not derision and ridicule of contributors for asking questions or questioning information."

charlie_says

Found this interesting re the origins of Omicron.

“It's not just evolutionary pressure. It's extreme evolutionary pressure on preventing antibody binding to the spike in a very short time. (Very few silent mutations, which act like a clock, indicate it was frozen for close to 1 year.) It's either a synthetic polymutant or bred in presence of extremely well-tuned sequence of different convalescent/vaccination sera or recombinant antibodies. That many resistances can't come from one or few immunocompromised patients, which usually have B cell deficiencies, let alone animals, which initially don't have antibodies.”

https://bprice.substack.com/p/lab-leak-20

Markus Antonius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453586#Comment_118453586

Ha! How naive you are to think you can just come here and discuss conspiracy theories without first providing the following to support your claims:

1) A peer reviewed published research article from a well-known reputable Journal of high impact factor

2) A heavily redacted declassified and officially released (no leaks) FBI OR CIA dossier (with supporting links) highlighting exactly the clauses to support your claims

3) A link to a news article (of at least 1 min read) from a highly respected journalistic source (with fully qualified journalists). For example CNN, Huffington Post, MSNBC or New York Times (anything outside of this is likely by a well known crank or at least a white-supremecist, neo-nazi, anti semite)

4) Please verify your sources using one of the many reliable fact-checking resources i.e. Snopes or CNN.com/fact-check

After you have done this you must proceed to answer, not one, not seventeen but all of the questions put towards you. Failure to answer all questions (and subsequent myriad of follow-up questions) will result in constant harrassment to revert and answer the questions or else your attempts to elevate the quality of discussion will be denied.

Regards.

charlie_says

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118533626#Comment_118533626

We have the documents :D

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118533626#Comment_118533626

Again man, you came here demanding a long list of questions about your personal theory that the space program was faked. You received direct full answers to all of your points. You were asked one question in return. You proceeded to ignore those and then pitched a fit when people pressed you on your conspiracy theory.

Then you tried to fake a picture in a failed attempt to do... something? And when you were caught out on this immediately you had another freak out. Then you tried to argue that the entire forum should be closed.

Now rather than engage with anyone you pop in at random with these little rants.

It's dishonest and hypocritical and shows that you, like most conspiracy theorists aren't at all interested in discussing anything.

weisses

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118533653#Comment_118533653

No ... He is actually spot on .....

Post of the day

weisses

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426671#Comment_118426671

Respect the opinions of others!!!!

Also in the charter

You want me to look up more of these gems ?

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118426671#Comment_118426671

You clearly don't, either, so congratulations yourself.

https://bprice.substack.com/p/lab-leak-20

The odd man out is Omicron. It's missing the normal and expected trial and error mutations, according to people more qualified than I.

Covid was most likely a gain of function job from Wuhan.

The Delta variant got out of a lab in Taiwan.

Omicron looks like it was another gain of function lab job.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118537670#Comment_118537670

Delta got out of a lab in Taiwan??

That's very strange as there was almost a month between the detection of delta in India in May and the first cases of delta in June.

Did it simply decide to bypass the island, China, South east Asia and only start to cause trouble in India??

Theres nothing you've said above that doesn't discount the immunocompromised person theory as the most likely source of Omicron.

If you want to put forward your Omicron gain of function theory, then answer the question as to why you think it was released, and by who??

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118537766#Comment_118537766

I have a geneticist living in my household. She veted the content on the page that I linked to, which includes the Taiwan lab leak info, and includes a link to this: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4371212

The Delta varient leaked from the Taiwan lab, but that lab wasn't the source of the variant. It established the plausibility of such leaks with regard to theories concerning Wuhan.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118537556#Comment_118537556

Lol so what I described above didn't happen?

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118537812#Comment_118537812

Ah the back tracking begins immediately

Youre just another liar

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118537944#Comment_118537944

You are having a reading comprehension problem. I said: "The Delta variant got out of a lab in Taiwan."

I did not say the Taiwan lab was the source of the variant, or claim that to be the case, but thought I should add clarification on that point.

Nice try at deflection from your original unjustified personal attack aimed at the OP.

Cheerful S

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-leak-more-likely-origin-of-covid-19-says-researcher-2653379

It came from a lab, was obvious debunkers are trolls.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118872276#Comment_118872276

Sorry cheerful, people who disagree with you and don't immediately fall for bullshit like you are not trolls.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118872276#Comment_118872276

for every conspiracy theory article, theres another to debunk it

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/nov/15/viral-by-alina-chan-and-matt-ridley-review-was-covid-19-really-made-in-china

There is just one problem: nowhere do they present proof that Sars-CoV-2 was manufactured. Take Chan’s claim that it appeared pre-adapted to human transmission “to an extent similar to late epidemic Sars”. This claim rests on a single mutation in the spike protein that appears to “slightly enhance” (Chan and Ridley’s words) its ability to bind to human receptor cells and suggests that by the time it was first detected in Wuhan it had “apparently stabilised genetically”.

But this is highly misleading. As the subsequent alphabet soup of variants demonstrates, the coronavirus has undergone repeated mutations that have steadily increased its fitness. Furthermore, studies of viruses isolated from pangolins, one of the animals suspected of being an intermediary host, bind to human receptor cells even more efficiently than Sars-CoV-2, suggesting capacity for further adaptation. As two leading virologists put it, the virus was not perfectly adapted to humans but was “just good enough”.

robinph

Presumably that they found something about it that makes it good at human transmission just shows that because it is good at human transmission its been studied in greater detail.

Without also studying every variant of every virus ever, that it transmits in humans doesn't prove anything much.

Cheerful S

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118877792#Comment_118877792

You began by saying it was a conspiracy and you shouldn't believe it. What makes you believe China? 

There are at least two to three high-end labs in Wuhan researching coronaviruses, so why would you rule this out as unlikely? The possibility of accidents occurring in labs isn't an implausible, theory. 

I never believed that the Chinese intentionally leaked the virus. It's possible there was some faulty containment in a lab, or someone got the virus on themselves and left work and spread it. That's more plausible than someone eating an animal got it. In Wuhan, researchers were unable to find the mammals ( bat linked to covid19) being sold in markets.

This is one of the main points in the nonconspiracy article.

When it emerged that one of these isolates, labelled RaTG13, shared 96% of its genome with Sars-CoV-2 and that WIV researchers had been experimenting with chimeric versions capable of infecting human cells, speculation intensified. Never mind that similar “gain-of-function” experiments had been conducted at western biosecurity facilities and showed that such stepwise changes in virulence could occur naturally. The fact that the outbreak had begun in the same city as the WIV was too much of a coincidence to ignore. As two Chinese researchers put it: “The probability was very low for bats to fly to the market.”

sydthebeat

Already answered.

Come back when you've something new

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118968060#Comment_118968060

This is unlikely. Most conspiracy mongers have already moved on from covid stuff because the news cycle has moved on. Cheerful and other conspiracy theorists aren't able to produce their own ideas.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118877792#Comment_118877792

This was one of the stronger "conspiracies" on this forum, that it was leaked from a lab (and maybe it was) and these were the key drivers, the scientists, behind that theory. There was the first red flag, statements of objectivity but constant attacks on the zoonotic origins theory. Then the next red flag, their weird decentralized internet group doing an informal "scooby-do" type detective thing, complete with anonymous character from the world of social media. Then it turns out one of the key scientists is a climate change denialist (sorry, "sceptic"). All the red flags piling up, crank senses were tingling, but still I gave the benefit of the doubt.

And now, surprise, surprise, a book by champions of "rigorous science" that fails to do any. It's unreal how consistently this stuff makes its way to this forum.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118968147#Comment_118968147

A while back the conspiracy theorists were dangerously close to proposing a rational, reasonable conspiracy theory.

There was a lot of talk of "gain of function" research and suggestions that labs in China were using it and that American funding was being used to pay for it. Leaving aside all of the covid conspiracy stuff, this would be a scandal as that kind of research is frowned upon and in the course of investigations around Chinese labs, US officials categorically denied that this research was happening and used US funding.

The conspiracy here being that the US was either knowingly or unknowingly funding research they shouldn't have, then lied about it.

But since this conspiracy doesn't involve super viruses being artificially created to make everyone take super evil vaccines etc etc, conspiracy theorists have no interest in the idea. It's too boring. It doesn't give eye catching clickbaity soundbites for them to consume and spread.