The Omicron variant

completedit

You'd wonder do the models take into account DRASTICALLY reduced social interaction in the new year? Dublin is dead in January and with Working from Home the norm there shouldn't really be much of a spread.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364300#Comment_118364300

A doctor (Dr Hotez) on CNN was wondering whether the apparent reduced risk of hospitalization from O was due in part to the influence of previous Delta infections.

I guess he was saying that a lot of O infections are Delta infections and so milder as a result.

So ,if you have not had Delta the risk of hospitalization might be closer to what it is with Delta.

I don't really understand his reasoning myself but maybe we don't need to get ahead of ourselves too much yet.

Real Donald Trump

Early signs show that it's mild yes? should be good news, but some people apparently don't like positive news ? sad people

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364159#Comment_118364159

yes, or no to letting it rip through the population given that there’s only a 40% reduction

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364300#Comment_118364300

Yes, when it's comparing different time periods. Did you read the whole article?

However, analysis from England and Scotland look better, despite uncertainty due to small numbers.

https://www.politico.eu/article/omicron-delta-study-coronavirus-variant-restrictions-hospitalization-vaccine/

There are some interesting changes in messaging happening too.

I heard a BBC World Service interview with David Nabarro earlier where he was asked whether probable increases in hospitalisations from Omicron should bring more restrictions, and his response was no, the evidence pointed to people adopting sensible risk mitigation strategies without restrictions. David had been interviewed a few times on national radio here so it's likely the message will permeate eventually.

My friends in Ireland with elderly parents have all been cautious on the run up to Christmas, cancelling social engagements to stay negative for the big day. A friend in England just antigen-tested positive and so has to reroute his mother to a sibling's household for Christmas.

Less fun before Christmas will be made up for in the new year.

Kiith

Surely if Omicron is 80% less likely to cause hospitilizations, its basically just the flu again...but more infectious?

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364518#Comment_118364518

Comparisons with influenza viruses are neither accurate nor reassuring.

H5N1 has upwards of 50% mortality rate, including in children, and airborne H5N1 has been created in the lab with only 5 mutations

A pandemic of that would make COVID look like a walk in the park.

Don't have nightmares 😂

fits

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364537#Comment_118364537

Jaysus. 😳

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364543#Comment_118364543

You gotta be glass half full about this stuff.

It'd totally sort out the housing crisis.

Multipass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364300#Comment_118364300

I think the delay in acknowledging this is all about getting as many boosters in as possible. Once the mildness is confirmed people won’t be bothered getting one.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364055#Comment_118364055

There has been plenty of that from SA and now we have two preliminary reports from the UK. We also don't see signs of mass hospitalisations, so on balance this is looking like less of a risky variant. TBH we'll be through the worst of this before some definitive scientific conclusions emerge.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364004#Comment_118364004

There's no consensus yet. You're talking BS.

It can still kill...

Covid attacks the heart, kidneys and testicles apart from the lungs, by the way. We still don't know the long term consequences of covid infections. Also, to note many viruses are oncogenic or cause other unintended consequences later on. So good luck with catching it...

Omicron is not a common cold virus at all.

Even if we accept the preliminary evidence that it is "milder" than Wuhan, Alpha, Beta and Delta and hence "like the flu" (with similar risk profile - speculative), then it's highly increased transmissibility makes it nothing like the flu.

Influenza R0 - median 1.27

Covid omicron RO - estimated median ~8

This approaches measles R0 and will rip through everything like a wild fire within next few weeks, even with reduced hospitalizations (best case ~70% reduction) people will die due to so high R0 and the fact that this will overwhelm the health care system (doctors, nurses sick with "flu").

In fact, if you wanted to compare it to something - it's a flu on steroids. Super infective harsh flu that kills vulnerable world wide.

1918 anyone?

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364651#Comment_118364651

Measles has an R0 of 12-18 and chickenpox is 9-10. That is not Omicron. You seem to be working yourself up unnecessarily as we are not seeing this turning into that many hospitalisations, which is severe disease.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364537#Comment_118364537

and airborne H5N1 has been created in the lab with only 5 mutations

Science! 😁

Some moron somewhere will release something like this in due course. Almost certainly because of gross incompetence. Though more likely it'll emerge from the same DIY pathogenic hothouse laboratory of animal husbandry practices in East Asia.

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364675#Comment_118364675

Fortunately we're all now well trained in influenza mitigation, as proven last winter.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364693#Comment_118364693

More by luck than judgement L. A happy side effect of covid restrictions and practices. We're all well trained in covid mitigation and we're still in it and likely to remain so for a good while yet, unless this omicron turns out to be a mild immune boosting "free vaccine" variant. Fingers crossed... Avian flu going rogue and global would be a scary prospect indeed.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364300#Comment_118364300

Seems like the UK media have finally started reporting the science today / in today's papers. The Irish media will finally, very reluctantly, do it today. What could have been they will think wistfully as they do....

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364216#Comment_118364216

All this good news (and good, reliable data) is turning out to be the nightmare before Christmas for a few on here.

Leftwaffe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364651#Comment_118364651

Nothing is stopping this, just accept it. No restrictions are going to work. It’s a very mild illness that will probably still overwhelm our hospital system as it’s a pile of shite. It’ll provide us with another blanket of immunity, one more step to it being over.

Its evident that covid will long be over before people accept it.

opinionated3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364768#Comment_118364768

Rte won't. They've just wheeled Reid out in morning Ireland to basically tell us things are going to get worse. High case numbers etc. And not asked a single tough question.

discostu1

Another day another study

It's more a prediction /model

“In the past, we roughly thought that COVID was 10 times worse than flu and now we have a variant that is probably at least 10 times less severe,” Murray said. “So, omicron will probably … be less severe than flu but much more transmissible

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/22/covid-omicron-variant-ihme-models-predict-140-m-new-infections-winter/8967421002/

SheepsClothing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364300#Comment_118364300

The problem is, that despite all the early studies indicating that the case hospitalisation rate is lower for Omicron, we don't know if that is due to something intrinsic to the virus, or if it is the result of it's increased ability to infect those with pre-existing immunity, leading to less severe cases on average.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1473772679425581069

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364802#Comment_118364802

It will definitely overwhelm Irish HC system because it's on below EU average level...

Imperial study out:

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1473764701553283076?t=cgMIaeEkBiEPjMB8LXSqHQ&s=19

Frank Bullitt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364430#Comment_118364430

Probably because hearing “positive” during a pandemic isn’t fun…

TonyMaloney

Greetings from Italy.

So it certainly seems there's good news emerging. On a personal level it would seem that omicron presents significantly less danger to myself and my loved ones. Fantastic.

On a wider population level the jury is still very much out though. We could yet see massive strains on health systems globally. Still, it certainly seems like it could have been much worse.

What I'm struggling to understand is how some of you seem to be coming to the conclusion that omicron is a positive for us. A good virus off you like.

"The pandemic is over" seems to me to be completely devoid of logic. We're witnessing a variant that is smashing through all kinds of immunity. The idea therefore that it will give us all a free boost of immunity and that will be that is laughable.

If omicron really did emerge from an immunocompromised person, well the chances of further VOCs emerging in the same way is increasing exponentially.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364651#Comment_118364651

Good god man talk about a pessimistic outlook.

1) Omricon doesn't approach the transmissibility of measles.

2) Omricon is a coronavirus. A percentage of which also cause the "common cold".

3) You're really bringing cancer into it?

4) Yep it can stlll kill, but so far it's looking milder and the vast majority of those that have died of this virus throughout this pandemic have been over 60, already chronically unwell, the very overweight and the monumentally unlucky. The vast majority of the vulnerable in Ireland are vaccinated and a large percentage have also had boosters.

5) ah yes, 1918. A few differences there. We have far better therapies available today. We have vaccines for a start. The 1918 pandemic also had one other major difference; it was far more likely to kill young people in the prime of life.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118365061#Comment_118365061

I don't think anyone is minimizing the potential risk of Omicron to the immunocompromised or other groups. However, as it spreads and outcompetes Delta, with a potentially less severe effect on the population in general, that is a good thing. In effect we may be looking at the end of this pandemic. 

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118365061#Comment_118365061

What I'm struggling to understand is how some of you seem to be coming to the conclusion that omicron is a positive for us. A good virus off you like.

And I'm struggling to understand how some are hellbent on apocalyptic thinking with every headline.

"The pandemic is over" seems to me to be completely devoid of logic. We're witnessing a variant that is smashing through all kinds of immunity. The idea therefore that it will give us all a free boost of immunity and that will be that is laughable.

The majority of people in Ireland are vaccinated, a large percentage have had boosters. This reduces the risks of serious illness in omricon too. Having a breakthrough infection of omricon that results in a glorified headcold for a few days will also boost immunity. It could well give so called "super immunity" going on studies into those who caught covid previously and were vaccinated.

If omicron really did emerge from an immunocompromised person, well the chances of further VOCs emerging in the same way is increasing exponentially

"Smashing through", "increasing exponentially". Yeah, that's not exactly measured thinking. Where are you getting your exponential from? Omricon may have emerged from someone like a HIV sufferer who took a long time to expel the virus. We don't know. It certainly looks like something of that nature as there are way too many mutations in one variant to suddenly came along at once out of the blue. It might have come from a vaccinated, or partially vaccinated person who again didn't clear the virus in a short period of time, again giving the virus a chance to mutate so much. Again we don't know. That said I'd love to see an evolutionary tree of the different variants and where and how and from what source this one came from. It's a bit of an oddball.

Vaccinated30

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364651#Comment_118364651

You know what other virus causes cancer, the hpv virus, whiwh you catch by having sex.

Let's ban sex and only allow ivf forever.

Smoking causes cancer, let's ban it...oh wait no too much revunue.

Alcohol causes cancer, oh again with the revenue.

Fumes from cars, oh damn the revenue on the fuel again so we can't ban that.

Talcom powder, cleaning products even VEGETABLES can give you cancer if you have them crispy and brown, so no roast potatoes on Saturday with your dinner.

Jesus you'd have to stay sealed indoors not to be exposed to carcinogens and you'd die then anyway.

If I develop cancer in 10 years, will it be from the HPV virus I had that gave me cin3, the cigarettes I smoke, the roasties I eat or the Covid I caught that gave me a slightly stuffy nose. I actually don't care the cause I'd be more focised on fighting the cancer...

TonyMaloney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118365145#Comment_118365145

Sorry, are you accusing me of being apocalyptic for not having faith that the pandemic is over?

There's a bunch of you that constantly sling insults at others - accusing them of loving the misery, being doomongers or apocalyptic.

Many of you have been at this for two years now, despite being near consistently wrong at every turn.

Frankly, you're the ones with the extreme views. It may not seem extreme anymore because it's so bloody boring, but it is.